The Agonist - thoughtful, global, timely

Sabbath eve, November 6, 2009

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 20:05:27 -0800

Sean Paul Kelly asked a number of Agonist readers to predict what the world would look like in 30 years. I am hesitant to comply. For me, to predict events in the future is to prophesy. To prophesy incorrectly makes one a false prophet. So I am very cautious with even the simplest statements regarding the future.

I rarely say I will do anything tomorrow without adding, good Lord willing, as a qualifier.

To be honest, I have had mental images, glimpses if you will, of events I think may be part of this country’s future and they are quite scary. I don’t know if these images are divinely inspired or just creations of my own mind.

Thoughts I’ve had are disjointed and full of gaps, like looking through a key hole that remains blocked most of the time.

I interact routinely with people that claim insight into our future or who see things the rest of us don’t, hear voices the rest of us can’t. Many of these people are deemed crazy by the majority, as I am sure were prophets and seers of old. I am influenced by what they say, think and do.

I read prophetic writings almost complusively and have only recently read a book that altered the way I understand history and therefore our future: The fourth turning, by Strauss and Howe.

Before I start, a disclaimer: I am not predicting the future or offering much in the way of anything original here. Instead, I am interpreting what others have prophesied after trying to reconcile their predictions to the world in which I live. This is a narrow glimpse: it’d take a library full of books to consider all possibilities that have coursed through my head since the late 1970’s when I began studying this subject in earnest (and believe it or not, this has been an ongoing concern of mine since that time). I will provide very little in the way of detail, because to put it simply, I don’t know what’s going to happen.

Stauss and Howe will tell you that history repeats itself, or comes near doing so in patterns resembling seasons of a year. Each season lasts roughly twenty years (some more, some less) and four seasons complete a saeculum.

The firt season, always following a period of crisis, is called the high, and corresponds with the spring of a year. Those born into this time are referred to as Prophets. In this particular saeculum, that’d be boomers, of which I am part (born 1943 – 1960. I’m doing this from memory as I gave the book to my dad after reading it and no longer have a copy.)

The second season is called the awakening; those born into this period are referred to as Nomads. Current nomads are Gen – Xers (born 1961 – 1981). This season corresponds with summer.

The third period is the unraveling. People born in the fall season are referred to as part of the Hero generation. This because they will become young adults during the fourth and last season – the crisis or winter season. Children born during the crisis are referred to as Artists. Today’s heroes are called Millenials. We’ve yet to come up with a name for the next crops of artists, the majority of which probably have not been born. For what it’s worth, my dad is part of the previous generation of artists, referred to as the Silent generation (born 1923 – 1942).

It took a book or several of them for Strauss and Howe to describe the patterns that define our history so I won’t rewrite what they suggest. Read the book. Suffice it to say that I am convinced. Seasonal patterns presented are similar to those an individual human goes through: birth, young adulthood, maturation, decline, and of course ultimately death (and rebirth, if you will). If you live a full life expectancy you will likely die in a time similar to that in which you are born.

Each crisis period since the founding of this country and for centuries before dating back to the Roman Empire and even before ended in a major war. The last three crisis periods here in the United States culminated respectively with the Revoltionary war, the Civil War, and World War II. In each case, the hero generation bore the brunt of fighting those wars. Notice that each of these occurred 80 years apart and came near the end of a twenty year economic, spiritual and moral collapse. Also note that each successive war was larger and more destructive in nature than the last. (Also notice that the stock market collapsed in 1929 and were are now living in 2009, eighties years later.) We just recently entered a period of crisis.

Here’s where I depart from Strauss and Howe’s predictions. I see these repetitive cycles like a harmonic vibration of sorts. Each wave of movement back and forth progressively gets larger and more powerful. Have you ever seen video of wind whipping a suspension bridge back and forth, up and down? If you have, you know at some point the structure fails and flies to pieces.

And that is what happens to empires as well. They survive a number of cycles but at some point a crisis period becomes so severe that they are broken to pieces, relegated to history. So not only are there saeculums, but also larger groups of saeculums, or epochs *probably not the word Strauss and Howe would use* that define history and denote the end and the beginning of a new era.

I don’t know if America, or the world at large survives the current crisis period in a form that would be recognizable to someone born antyime during the last century. Of course, each generation of prophets along the way asked the same questions and considered the same possibilities. Can we, will we survive this turbulent time?

Just because we survived three previous periods of crisis, doesn’t mean we survive the next.

Never before have > 6 billion people inhabited the earth. Not even close. So you can’t say that just because humans have never before affected the climate, we aren’t doing so now. In less than 100 years we have consumed half the known supply of extractable oil from the earth, oil that probably took millions of years to form. We’ve cut down trees, paved over swamps, ripped open land and allowed topsoil to erode. Balls of tar and plastic float in our oceans; coral reefs die, ice caps melt, species disappear.

Never before have we been so dependant on machinery, most of which is powered directly or indirectly by fossil fuels. Never before has such a large percentage of our population been so far removed from the land that feeds them. Never before has a single farmer fed some many others.

Naseem Taleb says the larger and more complex a system, the more redundancies that are built into that system, the less likely the system is to fail. But… When it does fail, (and it will), the greater the consequences of that failure.

Pride comes before destruction. The more you tell me how we can or won’t fail, the more I am convinced we must. We (not just the US, but modern man as a whole) built something approximating the tower of babel. It must be destroyed in order to save the planet.

There are some, the most evil among us, Malthusians also, but of a much more radical strain than I, that see the same things I see and decide they will engineer the collapse to the favor of their own based on race, religion, region, class, gender etc. They say, if it’s them or us, it’s going to be them and then they proceed to make it happen. Bush, Cheney, Gore and even your boy Obama are counted among them. Worse than these lie ahead.

It’s not that there aren’t non-violent fixes out there, it’s that they won’t be employed.

It will not be geologic constraints of peak oil that seals our fate, nor will climate change get us, although either of these in time presents grave threats. It will be the anticipation of these events and the reactions of those in power that bring about the worst disasters this world has seen.

Plans for the destruction of others will backfire. We will fall victim to devices of our own construction. We are entering a time of great upheaval: wars, famine, disease and natural disasters unparalleled in the history of this planet are soon to come if I don't miss my guess.

I’d say more, but it’d take a book. More than a book. And I don't have the time or space to do that here.

But take heart. The old must pass away so the new can rise. If something isn’t done to destroy civilization as we now practice it, the planet will be destroyed. And I don’t think that’s going to happen.

You see, in the end, I am an optimist.

My guess: Thirty years from now, the United States of America will have collapsed. The world’s population will number less than 2 billion. I don’t expect to be one of them. But you never know.

And the planet will begin to heal itself.

Five Books

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:33:31 -0800

If you knew you were going to stranded on a deserted island for a full year with no cable, iPod, DVD/Blue Ray or any other assorted form of entertainment and only had room for five books, which five books would it be?

Me? The Histories of Herodotus, The Divine Comedy by Dante, the complete Essays of Montaigne, The Complete Poems of Yeats and East of Eden by John Steinbeck.

You?

"You Can't Pick Your Side in a Race Riot"

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 09:09:05 -0800

The title of the post is a quote from an inmate who survived the infamous Santa Fe Prison Riot in 1980. The sentiment is obvious, when the worst, most atavistic tribal impulses of human beings take over, people can't make rational choices about which side to take, and often don't even have the choice of remaining neutral.

This unfortunate reality of the human condition greatly complicates the internal politics of a polyglot nation like the U.S.

It's been that way since the American Revolution. Certain ethnic/socio-political groups remained more loyal to the Crown and many were driven out of the country at the end of the war. I'm familiar with this because my father's family were tories who migrated from New York to New Brunswick after the Revolution.

My home state of Texas infamously oppressed the Tejanos who played leading roles in the Texas Revolution once independence from Mexico had been achieved.

German-Americans famously suffered the brunt of an angry populace during WWI, from Wikipedia:

The Red Cross barred individuals with German last names from joining in fear of sabotage. One man was hanged in Illinois, apparently for no other reason than that he was of German descent. The killers were found not guilty of the crime and the hanging was called an act of patriotism by a jury. A Minnesota minister was tarred and feathered when he was overheard praying in German with a dying woman. Some Germans during this time "Americanized" their names (e.g. Schmidt to Smith, Müller to Miller) and limited their use of the German language in public places. Newspapers also printed blacklists of names of Germans, including their addresses, headlined as German Enemy Aliens.

During WWII, Japanese-Americans had it even worse, being interned in concentration camps.

It shouldn't be surprising that our current ~~wars to export freedom and Democracy~~ state of war with two Muslim countries is putting yet another subset of Americans in a very awkward spot. And when one individual snaps, rather than being seen as an example of aberrant individual psychology or criminal evil, the jingo-artists among us seize on this to make the situation even worse.

From TPM:

One conservative writer is already declaring -- without citing any evidence -- that Major Nidal Malik Hasan, the alleged shooter who killed 13 at Fort Hood yesterday, was acting at the behest of the Muslim Brotherhood.

and from Raw Story:

In the wake of a shooting rampage at Fort Hood by a military psychiatrist of Middle Eastern lineage, the hosts at Fox News have begun suggesting that all Muslims in the military should be treated as potential threats.

"Do you think it's time for the military to have special debriefings of Muslim Army officers -- anybody enlisted?" Fox's Brian Kilmeade asked Geraldo Rivera on Friday morning. "Because if I'm going to be deployed in a foxhole, if I'm going to be sticking in an outpost, I got to know the guy next to me is not going to want to kill me."

I hope we can pull out of this downward spiral before it gets stupider and more deadly.

Some excerpts from an interview with a local newspaper editor near Fort Hood in the full entry. She takes a much more measured and responsible approach than the national media.

From Boing Boing's interview with Amanda Kim Stairrett, the military editor at the Killeen Daily Herald.

Besides the families, people really want to know more about the alleged shooter himself. What are you seeing in this coverage?
AKS: A lot of the news organizations are very much wanting to push his religion. Him being Muslim and the impact of that on the incident itself. We don't have anything with that confirmed yet, so I've been really hesitant to say that that played a big part in the incident. We did had a reporter who was at the shooter's off-Post apartment and talked to neighbors. They said he was outspoken about being Muslim and had a lot of pride in his faith. But right now, I've stayed away from saying whether that played a hand in the shooting. I don't know if it's a big problem that people are speculating. I think it's first instinct. But I don't know why new organizations are so prominently featuring surveillance footage of him in a convenience store in traditional clothing. They're building this background in case it turns out that his religion did come into this. But we just don't know right now. And we're not willing to go that route with our reporting at this time.

What's your take on the speculation that's running rampant on TV news with this incident, in general? How does that compare to the actual facts that you know?
AKS: It's been interesting. Very early after the incident yesterday, I was pretty amazed to stand by and listen to, mostly, TV reporters go on air and speculate and report on rumors they'd heard. Whereas, our newspaper is right next to Fort Hood. We have a close relationship and it's always been our policy where we find that it's best to wait for correct information rather than to speculate. Because there's a large family population that isn't necessarily on Post, and don't know what's going on. It's a dangerous situation to get those people worried and worked up for reasons that maybe aren't correct. It's been really frustrating to see all the speculation. I've even been avoiding watching the TV coverage too closely, because I don't want the speculation to accidentally influence what I write.

Some More Friday Fun

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 07:36:09 -0800

Many of you, I have a feeling, will like this one:

Unemployment: 10.2%

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 07:31:32 -0800

Where are my green shoots?

The U.S. unemployment rate climbed to 10.2% in October, topping the 10% mark for the first time in 26 years, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls dropped by a seasonally adjusted 190,000 in October, bringing to total number of jobs lost in the recession to 7.3 million. It was the 22nd straight decline in payrolls. Large losses were seen in manufacturing, construction and retail. Health care and temporary-help agencies added jobs.

10.2% is not, I repeat, is not a good number.

Friday Catblogging: Canadian Version

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 07:29:51 -0800

see more Lolcats and funny pictures

This one is for our Canadian friends.

Thirty Years Later: Floods, Famine and Fundamentalism

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:31:25 -0800

These are mostly random thoughts, for the future never really coheres into a narrative until it is long since past. I'll address the Rights of Women and the Environment tomorrow. I'll be adding random thoughts as they occur.

Military/War/Diplomacy:

The US retains it's dominant power position, if only just. Most of it's power will rest on innovations long since past. China and the EU will have set up an alternative to the US's space dominance, however. The US will be unable to affect it's will in the Asia heartland but will still dominate the global littoral. The SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) will emerge as a serious player led by China, Russia and a nuclear Iran.

Japan will remain an ally, but will have attained great power status. Virulent piracy in the South China sea, led by a collapsed Indonesia, leads to the Japanese navy patrolling the Straits of Malacca. China and Japan engage in a naval build-up. But the US, in the aftermath of the depression, retains its global naval presence after a series of military realignment bills in Congress transform US grand strategy.

Korea is unified as the US footprint in Asia is at its lowest level since shortly before the Spanish-American War. The Navy and the Airforce garner a lion's share of the budget, as the army reverts to a post-World War One size. The deterioration of the US position in Latin America gains steam in the aftermath of a crisis with China over Taiwan, but overall the US maintains a grip on the politics of Latin America, if only just.

Pakistan and India nuke each other. India occupies the fertile lowlands of Pakistan and annexes them. Large swaths are uninhabitable. The Indo-American alliance grows stronger. North Korea implodes, sending an endless stream of economic immigrants over the DMZ. The Central Asian states fall under the sway of Russia and China, setting off a mini-Cold War of sorts between the two.

In the aftermath of Castro's death, South Florida emigres press their 'ownership' rights in Cuba. It quickly becomes an American playground for the wealthy.

In the aftermath of the depression the United States ceases it's foreign aid to Egypt. Within a few years Israel is attacked by another Arab coalition, this one led by Egypt and Syria and the Jordanian House of Saud. The surprise attack from Syria and Lebanon regains the Golan Heights, but fails in the South.

Mexico muddles along. Brazil announces a breakout 'nuclear capacity' but doesn't build the bomb. The Australian population peaks and begins a rapid decline, fed by over-mining and a lack of water.

Economy/Development:

In the aftermath of a economic depression brought about by banks 'too large to fail' the United States defaults on its sovereign debt. No States leave the Union, although states paying more in taxes to the Federal government to welfare states use the threat of secession to repair the balance of monies shifted from wealthier states to poorer ones. A bill is pushed through Congress called the "The Great Compromise of 2021," harkening back to the 'Great Compromise of 1850. It defuses a constitutional crisis.

But the politics of the US grow more extreme and violent in the face of said development. California and Texas routinely use the threat of secession to garner air force and navy procurement contracts. The South is a place of febrile intolerance, but the 'Great Compromise' leaves its senators toothless. The Treaty of Lisbon led to a reawakening of soft-power in the EU, but only in it's near abroad. The EU does not enlarge itself. Turkey does not gain admittance. Falls back into more conservative-religious governance. The pace of scientific innovation in the developed world falls drastically, as fundamentalist movements in places as far afield as India and the United States create a very real anti-Enlightenment backlash. The Arab Middle East becomes ever more sclerotic and radical as peak oil becomes a reality. A succession of revisionist Popes in Europe leads to ever greater Muslim-Christian tension with radical anti-immigration parties adopting a more fundamentalist religion tone similar to that in turn of the century America. America remains the global land of plenty, but looks more and more like a bifurcated land of plenty, riven with sectarian violence.

Rights of Women:

In most of the world the rights of women are severely curtailed. Roe versus Wade is overturned in the US. Several southern states ban abortion outright. Evangelical Christianity makes increasingly large inroads in Latin America, deteriorating tenuous gains made in the late twentieth century. In Northern Europe women maintain their liberties, but they come under increasing pressure due to a global economic realignment as wealth shifts more and more to the global 'South' and China. A succession of radically conservative popes--one from Latin America--bring about a reawakening of religion in Southern Europe. The Anglican Church splits on the issues of abortion and gay rights.

Environment:

The depression in the United States and the globe begins when the bubble surrounding 'renewable energy' pops. It is the last great economic expansion of the United States. Several Pacific and Indian Ocean island nations no longer exist. Portions of South Asia, once known for their intense population density are uninhabitable, creating a fresh pool of displaced laborers for the 'Indian economic miracle' that is resembles slavery more than employment. Portions of Eastern China are also uninhabitable. Famine stalks many portions of the globe, including Peru, Western China, India, Pakistan, East Africa and also portions of the Sahel. Grinding, irremediable famine, that is.

Peak oil and global climate change bring about a remarkable change in Russia, as Russian neo-Communists win concessions in spreading the untapped wealth of the nation. Large tracts of oil and natural gas are exploited in areas hitherto impossible to develop. Russia is the sole developed nation that sees large scale population growth, outside of the US. A highway is built along the trans-Siberian railway and plans are afoot to link the Kamchatka Peninsula as well. Russia establishes are large naval base on the Arctic Ocean along the Ob River Delta.

In light of the melting polar icecaps the relationship between Canada and the United States is strained. Canada forces the United States to deal with it as a 'more equal partner' and not as a junior partner. Right wing agitators imitate those south of the border.

Do I outline developments that are contradictory? Certainly. History is rarely smooth or logical. Am I bit too pessimistic? Perhaps.

To The Victors Go The Spoils

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:10:09 -0800

If the banking crisis and the bailout wasn't enough to piss you off, watch this.

Sausage Factory

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 08:26:31 -0800

Speaking of irony, this is a classic.

American's Just Think They Are Conservative

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 08:04:13 -0800

It's a conversation I have all to frequently. And one I had just the other day.

"How much do you make a year?"

"About $35-40k."

"You work hard for your money?"

"Hell yeah, I'm in the landscaping business. But my taxes are too high. The government takes too much of my money to pay for welfare and gives it to immigrants."

"Who are your best customers?"

"Mostly people who live in Westlake and Tarrytown. (The wealthy areas of Austin.~spk)

"Do you have a retirement plan?"

"Social Security but that needs to be privatized so I can get better returns. Just look at the markets! I had a 401(k) but it got creamed after I got laid off."

"And you're business has a good health care plan?"

"No, I'm self-employed. But I'm going to get a health care plan soon. I don't want socialized medicine. I don't want to wait in line to see a doctor."

More after the jump.

There's more, lots more. But this snippet of the conversation is a good jumping off point. I often wonder why the irony of this guy's life is lost on him. Here is a guy who slaves away for the richest people in town and thinks he pays too much in taxes. Never mind the folks he works for get tax breaks that equal or exceed his annual income. Never mind that they probably have excellent health care plans, visit the best doctors. Never mind that the stock in his 401(k) got creamed after the people he works for took all their money out of the market, right? And never mind that the one program he is relying on now is in essence socialism. They guy is living off the scraps the wealthy toss him. He has a college education, but doesn't use it.

So, where does his conservatism come from? Here in Texas I'm pretty convinced that the lower middle classes are so conservative due to patriot porn. We've had at least 40 years of it. And it shows. Guys like this are going to root for the party that cater to the prevailing myths of the day. And those myths can be boiled down into one simple line, really: "America is the greatest country in the world."

That hoary chestnut leaves zero room for improvement. Hence, the prevalence of conservatism in these parts. It's also the reason why Ian is right:

More to the point, if Obama does not do effective policy, which is to say liberal policy, because reality is much closer to how liberals describe it than how “conservatives” describe it, his policies will be ineffective. No one is going to care whether he followed moderate, conservative or liberal policies if they’re unemployed or poorer than they were when he took office.

Conversely, if he followed actual liberal policies, and they worked, and everyone was prosperous, he’d get reelected.

If you enact policies that improve people's lives, as opposed to those that just cater to their innate prejudices, you show them, prove to them that liberal policies will make their life better.

But that requires leadership, not golden-throated rhetoric. Something I don't expect to see anytime soon.

Yankees Win 27th World Series!

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:59:33 -0800

The Yankees win it in six! 27 time world champs! All is right in the world tonight!

A Remarkable Instance of Corruption and Violence in Mexico

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:58:42 -0800

First off, Mauricio Fernandez, the mayor of San Pedro Garza Garcia, an exclusive community near Monterrey, announced as he was being sworn in for a new term that a feared drug cartel capo who had been threatening him had been found dead in Mexico City. Only one problem, the body hadn't been found yet. That would take another 3 1/2 hours. And it wouldn't be identified for two more days.

The mayor's explanation once the story erupted as a scandal in normally blase Mexico -- the DEA tipped him off:

When pressed, Fernandez said U.S. authorities tipped him off that somebody intercepted cartel communications and learned Saldana was planning to kill him, and he said unspecified intelligence sources told him Saldana was dead. Paul Knierim, a U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration spokesman, said Tuesday he couldn't comment on Fernandez's situation, but said American agents routinely coordinate with Mexican investigators trying to crack down on cartels.

Thirty Years Later: POW, population, oil and water

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 08:18:16 -0800

I was going to start today, but Numerian beat me to the punch:

The Rights of Women

Women will have made advancements across the globe – chiefly in those countries where their rights today are heavily restricted, such as in the Middle East. In most countries, women will enjoy the same rights available to a woman in France or Japan or the US today, but in these countries, women will improve their situation only marginally. This will still be a patriarchal world, and wars and insurrections will remain the work of men.

The fundamental right available to most women will be control over reproduction, since access to contraception will be nearly universal. Because of this fundamental development, the main issue facing our species in 2040 will be Peak Population. It will be evident even by 2025 that in most countries humans will not be reproducing enough to prevent a decline in population. Global population will peak around 9 billion and by 2040 will already be in decline, which will be dramatic in countries that cannot or will not induce enough immigration to compensate.

Peak Population will be the result partly of the inability of our species to feed, water, shelter and even clothe itself properly. But the principal motivation will be a paradox: the cost of raising a human to adulthood will be too high for all but the wealthiest families, and consequently women will be averaging less than the 2.1 children necessary to even stabilize population. The largest cost associated with child rearing will be education, since an adult will need at least a college education to survive on its own.

Enormous efforts will be made by governments to stimulate population growth, the major effort being universal education through college paid for by government. This will forestall Peak Population but not avert it, since environmental and other pressures – especially the right of women to have a career – will still work against having more than 2.1 children. Abortion will not be outlawed but it will be viewed socially as irresponsible, and in some areas as morally repugnant.

Environment

Extrapolating from today’s global warming trends, it is possible to forecast a very bleak future for our species and others on the planet. If as looks feasible global warming is accelerating beyond even the pessimistic models, many currently habitable areas will be unlivable around coasts and in deserts. Thousands of other species will disappear, mostly in the insect kingdom, with the more noticeable losses among large mammals. The lost of habitat will be ascribed in part to the human infestation of the planet which will continue to encroach on the remaining open spaces, but desertification of the globe, including the oceans which in vast areas will become too saline to support life, will wipe out thousands of species on its own.

It is possible that global warming will be forestalled if solar energy reaching the earth is throttled back should the sun enter a prolonged “solar minimum”, which may be underway. Even so, human pollution and habitat loss will not prevent continued species extinction and environmental degradation. These developments will feed negatively into the Peak Population phenomenon; the average person will be well aware by 2040 of the shrinking safe areas on the global for humans to live, and will have yet another constraint to consider when bringing children into the world.

Development and Economics

Globalization will have run its course by 2040. Most countries, except for pockets of very poor places, will be economically on the same plane. By 2040, China will be as developed as the US, but what this means is that the standard of living of Americans, as with Australians, British, Swedes, etc., will have been lowered to meet the raised living standards of the Chinese, Indians, Brazilians, etc. Income disparity will be universal, with the richest 1% consuming and controlling 90% of the global wealth. In places like the US there will be occasional protests and uprisings, but the wealthy will remain in firm control over political and business institutions, and most importantly media and entertainment, since these will be even more critical levers of control over what is left of the middle class, and the vast underclass that will have enough income to “make do.” Making do on less will be an established if not revered social moré.

Capitalism will be in crisis. The driving force of capitalism is growth – growth in revenue, net income, investment, feeding in turn into growth in earnings per share and the stock price. This wealth machine at its core depends on population growth as a rising number of consumers helps create the growth that defines capitalism, but Peak Population will deprive capitalism of its raison d́ etre. Economic theories will be devised to explain this new world, and they will focus on a theory of Neo-Feudalism, in which economic actors like corporations will define success as maintaining market share. A high premium will therefore be put on innovation and the development of new products with slightly higher margins than existing products. In this way corporations will be able to grab market share from a shrinking population.

Agriculture and Food

A cute little acronym will have become common by 2040 – POW! – referring to the three scourges of the planet: peak Population, Oil, and Water. Acute shortages of the latter two will contribute to Peak Population, as the human species will find itself trapped, unable to feed itself, unable to run its industrialized societies without cheap oil, and therefore unable to sustain population at 9 billion. Environmental degradation will put even more pressure on the human species and contribute in its own way to the POW effect.

It will be a toss-up as to whether water or oil shortages will be more severe, but a lot will depend on where you live. More and more humans will be fighting desertification and will be flocking to any place with stable, fresh water. Such places will be under political stress to keep out newcomers. There will be considerable progress in techniques like desalinization of sea water, so that costs will go down for extraction, but water will be too costly still to waste on open-air irrigation or with extravagant showers and toilets. Access to fresh water lakes and streams will be deemed highly valuable and therefore will be subject to political if not military conflict.

As sweet, cheap crude oil will be disappearing slowly over the next few decades, with the disappearance accelerating over time under Peak Oil, societies everywhere will be forced to shift to expensive alternatives. The French Model will be much admired and discussed, with its reliance on an extensive nuclear power system. The fundamental rights of man will be viewed, at least informally, to include the right to nuclear energy.

Military/War

The global political order will itself evolve into Neo-Feudalism, with power shared unevenly among large population countries such as the US, China, and India, courting small population countries like Saudi Arabia that have access to oil or water. Countries such as Russia, which has a large but already shrinking population but also has access to oil and water, will be in a privileged position. In this world, global cooperation through organizations such as the UN will not be easy, and the UN itself may cease to exist. About the only major advance in global cooperation will be in the tracking of every ounce of spent nuclear fuel, in order to prevent the development of nuclear weapons since so many countries will have nuclear power.

Large scale war will be viewed as a thing of the past. For this reason, the United States will early in the century lose its hegemonic power. Its military will be seen to be bloated and out-dated for the regional conflicts over resources that will define 21st century war. Insurrectionists will have learned the valuable lessons from the Iraq wars on how to stymie a great military power with cheap, home-made incendiary devices exploited through guerilla warfare. No military answer will be available on how to fight those forces willing to use suicide bombers, though over time it will be seen that this technique is counterproductive in extended insurrections that stretch over many years.

The question for China will be whether it learns from the experience of the US and USSR and avoids bankrupting itself with a massive military/industrial complex. The odds of succeeding in this are not high, unfortunately, as long as China remains a controlled economy where the temptation for corruption between the state and the manufacturing sector remains high. Consequently, global power for a time will be bi-polar, shared by China and a descendant US, but eventually India and Russia will take their place in a new version of the 19th century Great Game.

How these nations govern themselves will be of paramount importance, because Neo-Feudalism will be reflected in a tendency toward political disintegration within nation-states, and collapse altogether of the nation-state concept in favor of small regional duchies that align themselves along resource strengths. As an example, the population surrounding the Great Lakes may find common cause in protecting their fresh water resources, and they might establish a collective government that can stand up readily to either Washington or Ottawa. This will be possible because these duchies will have access to armies through their domestic police forces, which are already beginning the process of conversion to paramilitary forces and which eventually will only lack airpower in standing up to national militaries. But again, the lessons on how to defeat massive national armies are already available from the Iraq wars, and Neo-Feudalism will expand because the nation-state will have lost its monopoly on military power.

More soon. Excellent food for thought.

Iraq & Afghanistan Update/ Nov 4

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 06:17:05 -0800

Nov 4

Rogue Afghan officer kills five British soldiers

The Taliban claimed responsibility today for the killing of five British soldiers by a rogue Afghan policeman.

The servicemen, three from the Grenadier Guards and two from the Royal Military Police, died when the officer turned his gun on them at a checkpoint in Nad-e-Ali in Helmand Province yesterday.

Another six British soldiers and two Afghan policemen were wounded in the shooting, which sent shockwaves through the coalition mission in Afghanistan.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown told the House of Commons that the Taliban had claimed responsibility for the killings.

** Former Afghan presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah has said Hamid Karzai's re-election is "illegal".

More bomb blasts rock Baghdad

Separate explosions in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad injured at least 16 people Wednesday, Iraqi police say.

Five people were injured when a car bomb exploded near a checkpoint in the al-Athamiyah neighborhood while at least seven others suffered injuries in an explosion in the al-Eskan neighborhood, KUNA, the Kuwait News Agency, reports.

Police said four more Iraqis were injured in a third explosion on a highway in the northern part of the capital.

** Whatever Happened To Iraqi Oil?

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It's Never Too Late to Try a War Criminal

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:18:55 -0800

The leaders of Argentina's horrible junta from the 1970s and 80s are finally facing trial:

The trial has begun of Argentina's last military ruler, Reynaldo Bignone, and five other retired generals.

The men are charged in connection with the alleged kidnapping, torture and disappearance of 56 opponents of the military government in the late 1970s.
...
Mr Bignone, 81, appeared frail and rocked back and forth in his chair as the charges were read out, correspondents said.

I hope Dick Cheney's heart holds out long enough to answer before a court of law for atrocities like this.