Trump considered a “Global Risk”, ranked higher than oil shock or war with China in the South Sea

“”I will gladly accept the mantle of anger” via Vox

The Economist’s Global Risk Index now includes Donald Trump’s presidency.

The full list:


Their analysis:

Thus far Mr Trump has given very few details of his policies – and these tend to be prone to constant revision – but a few themes have become apparent. First, he has been exceptionally hostile towards free trade, including notably NAFTA, and has repeatedly labelled China as a “currency manipulator”. He has also taken an exceptionally right-wing stance on the Middle East and jihadi terrorism, including, among other things, advocating the killing of families of terrorists and launching a land incursion into Syria to wipe out IS (and acquire its oil). In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war – and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the US and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February 2016. His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the US) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.

Their conclusion:

Although we do not expect Mr Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton, there are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn. It is worth noting that the innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress – albeit such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.


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Jay is Editor In Chief of The Agonist, veteran and technologist.

3 CommentsLeave a comment

  • I’ve read the Economist off and on for 50 years. It changed at some point from being somewhat independent and interesting to becoming a cheerleader for the neo-liberal consensus.

    IMHO The Economist needs a good dose of Modern Monetary Theory.

    I wonder where the rate the risks of these new Trade Treaties, continuing Inequality, the US’ Imperial Ambitions, or the spread of Corruption Worldwide?

  • Jay Rosen notes “If I were to draw a picture of the 2016 campaign, this billboard would be it.

    The image comes courtesy of Radio Open Source, the show hosted by Christopher Lydon on WBUR in Boston. I was a guest on the program tonight, discussing how mainstream journalism has been unable to cope with events in this election. In that capacity I mentioned on air that people backing Trump are saying to American elites in politics, finance, culture — and journalism — something like… “this is how much we hate you.” A sharp-eared producer heard that and rendered it thusly.” via fb

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