Stephen Castle & Steven Erlanger | Brussels | November 19

NYT - Leaders of the 27 countries of the European Union on Thursday night chose Herman van Rompuy [wikipedia], the Belgian prime minister, as the European Union’s first president, and Catherine Ashton [wikipedia] of Britain, currently the group’s trade commissioner, as its high representative for foreign policy. The vote was unanimous.

Both are highly respected but little known outside their own countries. After an eight-year battle to rewrite its internal rules and to pass the Lisbon Treaty that created these two new jobs, the choice of such unknown figures seemed to highlight Europe’s problems instead of its readiness to take a more united and forceful place in world affairs.

Vanessa mock | Nov 17

The Independent - Flame-haired Latvian Vaira Vike-Freiberga, known as the "Iron Lady of the North", is leading a pack of late contenders who have dashed into the closing round of the race to become the EU's first president.

With so much still to play for, diplomats have warned of a long night on Thursday, when EU leaders meet to decide names over dinner. Some suspect the talks will spill over into Friday; others that a decision may be postponed even beyond that, but the Swedish presidency is determined not to let that happen.

Over the past days, another Baltic colleague, Estonia's President Toomas Hendrik Ilves, has added his name to the growing list of presidential hopefuls, which is now thought to include around a dozen potential candidates. Although Tony Blair's chances still look extremely slim, there has been renewed momentum behind a faltering bid by Luxembourg's premier Jean-Claude Juncker and mentions of Spain's ex-leader Jose Maria Aznar. Vaira Vike-Freiberga, who was president of Latvia until 2007 and led the former Soviet state into the EU and Nato, is the only female candidate applying for the newly created job. Known for her charisma and outspoken views, she was an enormously popular leader at home, with thousands of grateful Latvians turning out to lay flowers when she retired.

But she is now nearly 72 and despite a vigorous campaign on Facebook and in a string of European capitals looks unlikely to unseat the current favourite, Belgian Prime Minister Herman van Rompuy.

However, her candidacy chimes with growing demands to appoint a woman as either President or EU High Representative, the number two post created by the Lisbon
Treaty.

Brussels | Nov 17

DPA - The European Union hopes to launch a training mission aimed at helping Somalia's armed forces fight insurgents by the end of this year, the bloc's top diplomats said Tuesday.

The Somali government has asked for international help to train around 6,000 troops. France, Uganda and Djibouti have already begun their own training missions, which are estimated to be capable of training some 4,000 troops.

Under plans being discussed by EU foreign and defence ministers in Brussels, between 80 and 200 trainers from the armies of the bloc's 27 member states would be sent to Uganda to instruct around 1,000-2,000 Somali troops, who would then defend their country's fragile transitional government against armed insurgents.

Today 'we are taking one step. I would foresee that we have a final decision before the end of the year,' said Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, who was chairing the talks in Brussels as the current holder of the EU presidency.

After a European court rules against crucifixes in Italian schoolrooms, Italians from across the political spectrum decry an assault on the country's Roman Catholic identity.

Christian Science Monitor, By Nick Squires, November 3

Rome - Italians reacted with outrage on Tuesday after a European court ruled that displaying crucifixes in the country's schools violated the principle of secular education.

Italy's education minister condemned the judgment by the European Court of Human Rights, saying that the Christian cross was a symbol of the country's Roman Catholic religion and cultural identity.

M K Bhadrakumar | Oct 30

Asia Times - The worsening Afghan war has brought some good news for Uzbekistan. On Tuesday, the European Union announced it was lifting a four-year old arms embargo against Uzbekistan. The EU imposed wide-ranging sanctions in 2005 after Uzbek troops fired on civilians during an uprising in the city of Andizhan in Ferghana Valley, and Tashkent rejected calls by Western countries for an international inquiry into those killings.

Tuesday's decision completes an incremental process stretched over the past year or so on the EU's part to kiss and make up with Tashkent. The EU officials justified their decision with Tashkent's recently release of some political prisoners and abolishment of the death penalty. Amnesty International has promptly contradicted the claim with facts and figures.

Aside from the veracity of the EU claim, the reality is that Europe not only blinked first, it also bent its knees while doing so. Brussels kept a straight face, though, assuring the world audience that it would "closely and continuously observe the human-rights situation in Uzbekistan … [and] assess progress made by the Uzbek authorities."

All the same, the EU decision is a good thing. It underscores a new degree of realism often lacking in Western policy towards the strategic Central Asian region. The West has been far too prescriptive towards a region whose civilization dates back several centuries further than Europe's. Besides, the dogma regarding democracy and "regime change" was alien to the steppes and somewhat irrelevant at this point in time.

Are we seeing the end of the "regime change" ideology? The signals are tentative. Statements made by United States Vice President Joseph Biden during his tour this month of Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania, hark back to the former president George W Bush era. But then, Biden was grandstanding in front of people upset over President Barack Obama's reversal on the Anti-Ballistic Missile system deployment in Central Europe.

....The fact that EU was making an exception that it isn't ready to contemplate yet for China should drive home the fact that the Afghan war is hitting the European capitals where it hurts.

Brian Brady | Oct 4

The Independent -

A pan-European campaign was under way last night to stop Tony Blair becoming EU president, after the result of the Irish referendum made the creation of the powerful post almost inevitable.

The shadow Foreign Secretary, William Hague, cranked up the pressure against Mr Blair's return to a position of political power, warning European leaders: "There could be no worse way to sell the EU to the people of Britain."

The campaign starts as the Conservatives attempt to head off the embarrassment of David Cameron, if he wins the next election, being forced to deal with the former Labour prime minister on equal terms. Mr Hague is expected to lay bare his party's absolute opposition to Mr Blair during a series of meetings with EU leaders over the coming weeks.

Mr Blair's candidacy has been talked up in recent weeks, even though the post will not officially exist until the Lisbon Treaty is ratified. It was reported yesterday that his former chief-of-staff, Jonathan Powell, is leading a diplomatic campaign in European capitals to clear the way for his selection.

Several senior European figures, including the former Spanish prime minister Felipe Gonzalez and the French Prime Minister, François Fillon, have also made their interest known – but no one has yet made a public declaration.

Nadim Audi & Caroline Brothers | Calais | September 22

NYT - Advancing at daybreak, French police rapidly encircled a camp outside this English Channel port on Tuesday to round up almost 300 Afghans, Pakistanis and other undocumented migrants who have gathered for years in the hope of making clandestine journeys across 22 miles of water to Britain.

Hundreds of officers in dark blue uniforms scuffled with migrants and campaigners from a group called No Borders as the authorities closed down the camp, known as “the jungle” by migrants and Calais residents alike for its location among the thorn bushes and sand dunes of Calais.

Roman Kupchinsky | Sept 1

Asia Times - Pipelines running along the bed of the Black Sea are the frontline for Russia in its attempt to impose its energy policies on the European Union. Now nationalism and alleged corruption over hydrocarbon resources beneath the seabed highlight energy anarchy on the EU's frontier.

The People's Voice, August 22

Here in Iceland people say, that if the country´s government agrees to give in to British and Dutch blackmail to pay the debts of the private internet-subsidiary Ice-Save of the private bank Landsbanki, we all will become Ice-Slaves. So public opinion is forcing the parliament to refuse unconditional debt-payments. According to a new agreement payments are only to be made conditional as a percentage of economic growth.

Already a large group of international banks have come together to sue Iceland for full and unconditional payments. Joseph Tirado, from the British law-firm Norton Rose said that a large group of banks will be part of this law-suit. He did not want to give the names of those institutions neither would he say in what court the case would be heard. EU officials and others are threatening Iceland with international isolation.

Brussels | Aug 27

DPA - If you thought that English is the language of the 21st century, think again. In Europe, the future could be Latin.

'It's not practical if you have to translate the name of an EU programme into 23 languages, so if you have a Latin word which can be pronounced in all 23 and means something at the same time, it's practical,' European Commission translator and classical linguist Wolfgang Jenniges said.

In the EU, languages are big political business. Each member state fights fiercely for its national tongue, with EU texts routinely translated into all 23 of the bloc's official languages.

As long as the EU has enough computer memory and printer paper to handle 23 versions of every text, it is a perfect political solution.

But trouble starts when there is only room to use one word from one language - such as when creating an internet domain name.

Sabina Casagrande | Aug 27

Deutsche Welle - US media has named Lithuania as a further European country to have allegedly hosted secret CIA prisons. But clarifying the matter is proving to be challenging, as some officials appear to be stalling investigations.

Lithuania has promised to investigate the latest allegations of hosting a secret CIA prison for al Qaeda suspects on the outskirts of the capital Vilnius, said its new president Dalia Grybauskaite.

The parliament of the former Soviet country was already putting together a special committee to look into the case, Grybauskaite told reporters during an official visit to Brussels on Tuesday. However, she said she had no confirmation of the claims.

"It is regretful that my country's name is on the list," said Grybauskaite. "It will be for us to prove if it is true or not."

Last week, former CIA officials directly involved or briefed on the highly classified program told US television network ABC News that Lithuania was the third country in Europe to provide the CIA with such facilities. Sources have previously named Poland and Romania, as well.

Hilmi Toros | Istanbul | Aug 12

IPS - Once the worst of enemies, involved in 12 wars in three centuries, Turkey and Russia have suddenly become the best of friends, forging strong bonds that could be a counterpoint to the European Union if it freezes Turkey out of full membership.

The countries call their ties "multi-dimensional co-operation," somewhat short of a "strategic partnership", but that too may be in the offing.

On an eight-hour visit to Turkish capital Ankara last week, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin signed 20 deals with his counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. These are mostly commercial contracts in energy, collectively worth some 40 billion dollars.

The two leaders also declared that rival gas pipelines Nabucco and South Stream to bring natural gas to European markets would be "complimentary" rather than "conflicting".

In the end, conflicting or complimentary, if both projects are realised, Russia and Turkey would play a major role in meeting Europe's growing gas needs. For Europe, either an unfriendly Turkey or Russia would endanger energy security - and it would be much worse if both were ever to gang up on the EU together.

Tirana | August 1

Reuters - Albania’s homosexuals won more than they had hoped for after the government said it planned to allow same-sex marriages despite opposition from religious leaders and politicians.

The proposal put forward by Prime Minister Sali Berisha on Thursday faces a tough fight in Parliament.

16 July 2009 | By Gerald Knaus and Alex Stiglmayer

Balkan Insight - Europe’s decision to grant three Balkan countries visa-free travel, while leaving three others out in the cold, is regretable and – in Kosovo’s case – an unmitigated disaster.

** EU gives Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia visa-free travel from January 2010
** EU opens borders to some Balkan states - but not all
** EC green lights visa-free travel for Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro
** European Union leaves Bosnian Muslims in the cold, once again(image)

Ashgabat | July 11

DPA - Gas-rich Turkmenistan has indicated an interest in the Nabucco gas pipeline, just days before an accord for the multi-billion-euro European Union project is due to be signed in Turkey, reports said Saturday.

Geologists have determined that Central Asian country has enough natural gas to become involved in the supply of gas to Europe, President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov told Parliament, according to a report by the RIA Novosti news agency.

The countries involved in Nabucco pipeline - Austria, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey are due to sign an agreement in Ankara on Monday.

The EU intends to use the pipeline to reduce its dependency on Russian gas.

According to Berdymukhamedov, Turkmenistan has 'a surplus of natural gas that can be sold abroad. Local geologists had confirmed 'colossal' natural gas reserves, he said.

Nicholas Watt | July 9

The Guardian - Boats carrying illegal migrants to Europe should be sunk Nick Griffin, the leader of the British National party, said yesterday.

In a provocative intervention, Griffin, elected to the European parliament last month, called on the EU to introduce "very tough" measures to prevent illegal migrants entering Europe from Africa.

Brussels | June 19

UPI - Confidential documents written by the EU team investigating last year's Russian-Georgian war assign much of the blame to Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili.

A majority of EU experts say the Georgian president, and not the Kremlin, ordered the first military strike against two breakaway provinces, according to the documents obtained by German news magazine Der Spiegel. The Georgian offensive into South Ossetia and Abkhazia escalated into a five-day war with Russia that the powerful neighbor won.

That doesn't mean the Kremlin is entirely innocent. A senior member of the EU experts' commission tasked with probing the conflict, Otto Luchterhandt, a German international law expert, argues the Kremlin was legally entitled to counterattack but violated "the principle of proportionality" with its massive intervention in Georgia. Other commission members are also arguing that Russia is to be blamed.

** Der Speigel:EU Probe Creates Burden for Saakashvili

Ian Traynor | Brussels | June 19

The Guardian - European leaders tonight sought to revive the ill-fated Lisbon Treaty reforming the way the EU is run by delivering pledges shoring up Irish independence in the hope of securing a Yes vote in an Irish referendum in October.

But Brian Cowen, the Irish prime minister, told a summit of 27 government chiefs in Brussels that he would not win the referendum, expected on 2 October, unless the "guarantees" were legally enshrined in a new protocol that could cause problems for Gordon Brown and other European leaders by reigniting old feuds over the treaty.

In June last year, the Irish derailed the Lisbon project by rejecting the treaty in a referendum. The rest of the EU has agreed to assure Ireland that the new regime will not affect Irish military neutrality, ­abortion laws, taxation policy and the Irish are also guaranteed a seat in the European Commission.

London | June 7

AP - Britain elected its first extreme-right politician to the European Parliament in results announced Sunday, a development mainstream lawmakers blamed on the recession and a collapse of trust in major political parties. The British National Party won a seat in northern England's Yorkshire and the Humber district — taking one of six seats in Europe's Parliament awarded in the region.

Britain is electing 72 European lawmakers and the far-right BNP, which does not accept nonwhites as members, was expected to win more seats when additional results were announced. The BNP won 10 percent of the vote in the Yorkshire and the Humber district. Projections based on early results showed the party was expected to win 7.5 percent of the vote nationally. Lib Dem FoP @ Daily Kos looks at the reasons why.

Claire Soares & John Lichfield | Paris | June 6

The Independent - Fears that low turnout and gains by far right will be repeated across the EU

The first killer punch of the European election campaign was struck yesterday by the maverick Dutch politician, Geert Wilders, who scooped 17 per cent of the vote and almost a fifth of his country's seats in the European Parliament running on a populist, anti-immigrant, law and order agenda.

The Dutch result, released two days early – before most Europeans had even cast their votes – sent jitters around a continent fearful that a miserably low turnout will help extremists on both the left and right.

Mr Wilders, refused access to Britain as a rabble-rouser earlier this year, has perfected a form of tolerant intolerance with his Freedom Party and its smartly-suited, middle-class, anti-Islamic and "pro-liberal" values. While the Christian Democrats of Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende managed to keep hold of the largest share of the votes (albeit with the loss of two seats and a mere three-point lead), the Freedom Party romped home in second.

The platinum-blond maverick shot to international prominence for branding the Koran a "fascist book" and releasing a film, Fitna, which depicted Islam as inherently violent. "This is fantastic, a great day for the people who crave another Netherlands, another Europe," declared a triumphant Mr Wilders who won four of the 25 seats up fro grabs. Having beaten the Labour party, the other main bloc in the Prime Minister's coalition, into third place, he claimed the government no longer had a mandate. "The cabinet should step down, the sooner the better," he told Dutch television, although analysts said that was wishful thinking.

Amsterdam | June 1

DPA - There was a time when the Dutch were enthusiastic supporters of projects to draw Europe closer together politically.

But in the run-up to the European Parliament elections, one thing is strikingly clear while watching people in an outdoor shopping district on a recent sunny afternoon in Amsterdam. No one is even paying attention to the election billboards.

'I am not going to vote next week,' 27-year old Marieke van der Ven told the German Press Agency dpa.

'Normally, I would vote for the leftist Liberal D'66. But, in the European elections, they joined forces with the rightist Liberal VVD. I think that is absurd. So why should I even bother?'

Van der Ven is no exception, says political communications professor Claes de Vreese, of the University of Amsterdam.

Last month, his University of Amsterdam Centre for Politics and Communication, along with the polling agency TNS NIPO conducted a study that showed 61 per cent of the Dutch support EU membership - but only 24 per cent have confidence in Brussels' institutions.

'The Dutch are afraid the European Union is becoming too large. They fear losing their cultural identity. They are also unhappy with the European Union's functioning.'

Banks securitize their mortgages, sell these structured products to themselves and exchange them to cash on ECB counter.

Luke Harding | Khabarovsk | May 21

The Guardian - Russia and the European Union were today holding a summit intended to improve their battered relationship, amid mutual exasperation and irritation in Moscow at the EU's recent attempts to lure eastern European countries away from Moscow's orbit.

Russia's president, Dmitry Medvedev, was hosting a two-day EU-Russia summit in the far eastern city of Khabarovsk, close to Vladivostok and Russia's Pacific coast. EU leaders, including the European commission president, José Manuel Barroso, arrived in the city this morning.

The summit comes at a time of growing frustration between Brussels and Moscow over a host of issues ranging from energy policy to the war in Georgia. The EU was irritated by Russia's gas war in January with Ukraine and Medvedev's failure to pull Russian troops out of the breakaway Georgian republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

For its part, the Kremlin is annoyed by the EU's attempt earlier this month to improve ties with half a dozen post-Soviet countries. A summit of 33 countries in Prague brought the EU's 27 governments together for the first time with the leaders of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus.

http://www.votewatch.eu/index.php

The second one ever. The previous web site had to be closed because politicians wanted to censor it.

Parliament will move to left.

The predictions will be updated every two weeks until the elections on 4-7 June.

More: http://www.predict09.eu/default/en-us.aspx