Tonight's Nelson Report discusses the election, last weeks performance and behavior of the Republican 'ruling' class.

Excerpt after the jump

by Christopher Nelson, from The Nelson Report

POLITICS...first, last night we were over-simplifying beyond our norm, and said all Obama had to do to win an Electoral College victory is hold all the 2004 Kerry states, and take just one '04 Bush state.

We meant, of course, a "Bush state" big enough to put Obama over the magic 269 electoral vote level, and not just any old place like, say, Alaska, home of Real Americans.

In that regard...and as lead-in to a discussion on why any intelligent Republican is increasingly depressed...a quick check of ALL the so-called "battleground states" shows that Obama leads (if narrowly in some cases) in ALL of those that Bush won in '04. All...

In fact, Obama may be pulling away in Virginia, with 13 electoral votes, Colorado, with 8, Indiana, with 7, and New Mexico, with 5. You can do the math, and it helps explain why talk in senior Republican circles is whether it's still possible to "save" some of the House and Senate seats at risk.

Following last week's Obama/McCain debate, the biggest laugh of the night came on CNN, when Reagan and Poppa Bush White House guru David Gergan, when asked what McCain could still do to win, blurted out, "Beats the hell out of ME!"

But aside from organizational and technical issues, the reasons for thoughtful Republican dismay aren't a laughing matter. We printed last night the bulk of Colin Powell's devastating deconstruction of the McCain Campaign's negativity, and highlighted his concern about the xenophobic, racist elements, especially against Muslim Americans.

Comes today the latest condemnation of controversial "robo calls"...computerized phone messages...which directly accuse Obama of complicity in 9/11 because of his "friendship" with 1960's radical bomber William Ayers.

Republican Senators Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine, (Collins an "endangered" Republican), had previously pleaded with the Republican National Committee to stop this offensive practice, as has Minnesota Republican incumbent Norm Coleman, currently lagging in the polls.

Today, a highly respected veteran state-level Minnesota Republican, former State Sen. Barbara Lorman, followed Powell's example and formally endorsed Obama, citing two reasons: first, Obama's "ability to bridge the partisan divide to work toward solid solutions that will get our nation back on the right track..."...

And second:

"All of us should be extremely wary of the half-truths and outright untruths that have been spread by the recent negative campaigning and shameful automated phone calls."

Here's the clincher, expressed in public by Lorman, but already shown, in private, by the polls:

"While my admiration for Sen. Obama has grown with his positive approach to addressing the challenges facing our nation, my disappointment with the McCain campaign has deepened. The negative tactics are inappropriate, downright dishonorable, and have no place in the State of Wisconsin."

But it isn't just hard-ball politics..."dishonorable" politics, by Lorman's measure...it's a far deeper problem, we're arguing tonight. It's literally existential angst that we're seeing in key sectors of the Republican electorate.

McCain is clearly losing a measurable percentage of traditional, life-time Republicans who find they simply do not believe many of the "values" arguments and attitudes now being enforced as Republican dogma.

Some of the list, or litany, has been clear for a number of years, starting with the rejection of science on global warming, and the rise of "faith based" officials throughout the Bush Administration with an "agenda" which was carried out despite the consequences for the nation.

In its most extreme form, VP nominee Sarah Palin has talked about "real America" and, with McCain's encouragement, very directly excluded "urban America" as a place of equal value and rights...even if one disagrees with them.

So neither McCain nor Palin can claim innocence when Republican Rep. Robin Hayes introduced McCain at a North Carolina event last weekend with the remark that "liberals hate real Americans that work and believe in God."

Think about that...liberals hate Americans who work and believe in God...this from a sitting United States Congressman.

Now Obama brought some of that nonsense on himself, it must be noted, with his ill-advised, infamous, and condescending remark about "terrified small town Americans" who "cling to guns and religion"...but he has been excoriated for that (starting with Hillary!) and has apologized repeatedly.

Here's what the Republican adaptation of "real Americans" can lead to in its most extreme form: Republican Congresswoman Michelle Bachman actually telling NBC news that it would be a "great idea" if the news media conducted an "investigation" to find out whom of her Congressional colleagues are "anti-American".

Think about THAT...this women is so twisted in her perception of political "opponents" that she thinks its a smile to be asked about investigating her colleagues, the elected representatives of the American people, to see who is disloyal.

This is "McCarthysim" in its pure form...individually ludicrous to be sure, but not in the aggregate. Bachman clearly is a prancing fool, but she's not alone, and as the election is likely to drive out Republican moderates, since they must run in contested districts.

The danger is that the intellectual face of Congressional Republicans next year will be much more likely to reflect Bachman's vicious idiocy, than it will the fundamentally decent, genuine, patriotic conservatism of Virginia Republican Tom Davis, whom we mentioned above as retiring, to the loss of the Party and the country.

Concerns such as the above are no doubt in play for what looks like a debacle on Nov. 4, warns Republican political expert Michael Franc, VP for Government Relations at The Heritage Foundation.

Franc and Heritage Asia Studies Center chief Walter Lohman gave excellent talks at the Keidanren lunch today, and we'll try to look at some of the details of Walter's Asia discussion tomorrow.

For tonight, Franc said his study of the in-depth polling data indicates that not only are educated Republicans fleeing the party in some numbers, they are actively going over to Obama and the Democrats.

And, Franc said, clearly there's a "Palin effect" in that she may have solidified the conservative Republican base for McCain, but her faux "populism" is hurting McCain with traditional Republican elites.