Date : 22 September 2008 1212 hrs (SST)
URL : AFP

PARIS: French lawmakers are to vote Monday on whether to keep French troops in Afghanistan after 10 soldiers were killed there, raising questions about France's presence in the increasingly violent country.

Both houses of parliament, dominated by President Nicolas Sarkozy's party, are expected to support maintaining the 2,600-strong contingent, one of the largest serving in NATO's Afghanistan mission.

But a stormy debate was in store after Canada's Globe and Mail newspaper quoted a "secret" NATO report at the weekend saying Taliban fighters who ambushed the French soldiers on August 18 were better armed than their enemy.

NATO and the French general staff denied that such a report existed.

The mountain ambush east of Kabul was the deadliest ground attack on international troops since they were sent to Afghanistan in 2001 to oust the hardline Taliban regime.

According to the Globe and Mail, the 30 French paratroopers ran out of bullets and did not have proper communication equipment, forcing them to stop fighting after 90 minutes.

The soldiers had only one radio, which was quickly knocked out, leaving them unable to call for air support while Taliban fighters used incendiary bullets that punched holes in armoured vehicles, according to the report.

But a French military spokesman denied the account, saying there was no shortage of bullets and that radio contact was only momentarily lost after a soldier carrying equipment was killed.

"We were always able to respond to Taliban fire. Supplies were flown in by helicopter during the fighting that lasted nine hours," said armed forces chief of staff spokesman Captain Christophe Prazuck.

"I am in a position to say that there is no such report, either from NATO or from ISAF," the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, said alliance spokesman James Appathurai in Brussels.

Prime Minister Francois Fillon was to address parliament to make the case for continued engagement and defend the decision earlier this year to send 700 extra troops to Afghanistan.

Fillon was to outline additional security measures for the French troops, drawing lessons from the ambush in which the 10 were killed and 21 were wounded.

"It is inconceivable that France, a member of the United Nations Security Council, the fifth power of the world, would contemplate a retreat," Defence Minister Herve Morin said last week.

A poll published after last month's ambush showed 55 per cent of the French supported a pull-out from Afghanistan.

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I understand that the word from the DoD and the mainstream press will express dismayed surprise about the Pakistani military aiding the Taliban. What i can't be sure of is whether it's just smoke and mirrors or actual surprise. If it is the latter, then i'll be left shaking my head slowly (again).

Of course the ISI and the Pakistani Army - or at least portions thereof - are going to aid the Taliban. The Taliban rose during the Soviet occupation because US/Saudi aid money was funneled through the ISI...in an effort to keep our hands clean. The ISI decided who got how much. Though they spread the money/arms around, they clearly preferred the Taliban.

When the Soviets left and the various factions began making war on each other, the Taliban was nearly defeated in Kabul by an alliance (of convenience) between the Northern Alliance and Hekmatyer's troops. That all changed when the ISI pushed all of the funds into the Taliban, prompting a massive desertion of troops to them. This desertion effected Hekmatyer's forces in particular, which collapsed. That collapsed forced the Northern Alliance into a retreat that they didn't return from until our air power arrived.

If our politicians and spooks actually expected the ISI to dump the group that they spent so much time building...and building for their own purposes: strategic depth for Pakistan against India...then i don't know what to say. This is especially true considering our current friendliness with India and how active India has been in Afghanistan.

RPT-WITNESS-Return to Kabul, in a cordon of fear
25 Sep 2008 12:00:23 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Sanjeev Miglani

But I look at Kabul's high-walled compounds with their blast barriers, sandbags and concertina wire running all around to keep suicide bombers as far away as possible, and realise things can turn ugly very quickly.

Five years on, the walls of the embassies and other foreign organisations have grown taller, there are more checkpoints and more roads are either cordoned off completely or regulated.

I begin to feel the insecurity that the city lives with, and struggle to understand the contradictions of a place whose bustling streets belie a sense of foreboding.

"Back then we were seen as liberators after the darkness of the Taliban years, now we are probably seen as a necessary evil," says the diplomat in the restaurant.

SULAIMANIYA, Iraq, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Kurdish Peshmerga and Iraqi security forces clashed in Iraq's northeastern Diyala province on Saturday, killing one member of each group, officials on both sides said.

Towns on the border between Diyala and the largely autonomous northern Kurdistan region are disputed by Kurds and the central government.

Jabbar Yawar, spokesman for the Kurdish Peshmerga security forces said one Peshmerga member and one member of the national Iraqi police had died in clashes which broke out after a dispute at a Kurdish party's headquarters in the town of Jalalwa.

Man dies as Iraqi forces raid Kurdish peshmerga post

BAQUBA, Iraq (AFP) — A member of the Kurdish peshmerga died when Iraqi police on Saturday raided a peshmerga security post in the troubled town of Jalawla, Salah Koikha, spokesman for the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, a leading Kurdish political party, told AFP.

An Iraqi security official speaking on condition of anonymity confirmed the incident, saying the troops targeted a cell of the peshmerga secret service known as Asayish.

Tension is high between Iraqi forces and peshmerga, who moved into the region after they were invited to help a drive against Al-Qaeda insurgents in the unruly Diyala province, of which Jalawla is a Kurdish enclave.

Will we ever learn how to go about these operations in the right way? Kennedy had the right idea and a clear vision of the future of warfare when he formed the Special Forces.

The original structure was five man teams cross trained in specialties and possess the capability of communicating in the native tongue. The teams would be inserted into indigenous communities, where they would live and work with the natives. The improvements they brought were simple ones of basic sanitation, medical care, agriculture improvements. They were not grand projects, but the sort of thing that a village plus five guys could accomplish. The teams would arm and train the population...as well as fight alongside them.

The key point is that the teams would do things with the population rather than for or to the population. What success the US Army had in Vietnam was mostly had in the original special forces operations.

This method of counter insurgency was never very popular with the general staff because it relied on the teams being outside the chain of command and required nothing more complicated than first-aid kits, generators, and small arms. (in other words, not enough big money contracts)

The only way that more troops and more operations will quell a native insurgency is if those troops take the Roman option: burn the cities, salt the earth, kill the men, and enslave the women and children. If you're not willing to take that option, then more troops is like pouring gasoline on a fire to put it out. (caveat: it is possible to coopt local forces as was done in Iraq, but that is a dubious proposition because you can't determine the depth or duration of the loyalty you purchase)

28 Sep 2008 10:40:58 GMT
Source: Reuters
(Updates with U.S. military's comment)

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Unidentified gunmen shot dead the most senior woman police officer in southern Afghanistan on Sunday, an official said.

Lieutenant-Colonel Malalai was killed in her car in an area of Kandahar city where she resumed her job as an officer after U.S.-led forces in 2001 overthrew the Taliban government which had barred women from most outdoor work.

She had led many police house searches in Kandahar leading to seizure of arms and drugs in recent years.

"Unknown gunmen from a car killed her when she was heading to her office," provincial spokesman Zalmai Ayoubi said, adding the motive behind the incident was being investigated.

Her son was wounded in the attack, witnesses said.

Officials have yet to comment about the killing of the 45-year-old Malalai who had survived several assassination attempts.

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http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1845439,00.html

By Rania Abouzeid / Dora, Baghdad Tuesday, Sep. 30, 2008

The last time the U.S. was involved in disbanding large Iraqi military units, things didn't go well — the fateful 2003 decision to dissolve the Iraqi Army proved to be a key strategic blunder that gave a massive boost to the insurgency. This week, the U.S. will try again, transferring control of 54,000 of the 100,000-strong largely Sunni citizen patrols known as the Sons of Iraq (SOI) to a Shi'ite-led government many of them view with suspicion. The rest will remain on the U.S payroll, as part of a phased transfer.

Some 20% of these anti-Qaeda groups — many of whom had been insurgents paid by the U.S to switch sides — will be incorporated into the Iraqi security forces. The rest will be given civilian jobs or training in a bid to help reintegrate them into the general population. But it won't be that simple: After years of vicious sectarian violence, many Sunni Arab patrol members fear retribution from the government; and, indeed, some government officials consider the SOIs as little more than thugs and murderers. And, as is so often the case in Iraq, the U.S is being blamed — this time by Sunni allies, such as tribal leader Sheikh Saleh al-A'ghayde, who accuse the Americans of abandoning them.

______________________________________________________________________

The Shi'ites are just setting up for a civil war with the Sunnis. It's coming. Everyone is just biding their time until the U.S. leaves, or at least reduces the force level, so that our troops won't get in the way of the final battle.

Leila Fadel | McClatchy Newspapers

last updated: September 30, 2008 06:17:01 PM

BAGHDAD — The scars left by the violence that ravaged the Fadl district of central Baghdad are everywhere in this former Sunni Muslim insurgent bastion. The balconies are collapsed, and the building columns, decimated by gunfire, look like chewed apple cores. Garbage is strewn throughout the streets, and there's little or no electricity.

There is, however, a measure of security for the first time in years, and the U.S.-backed Sunni militia that was stood up here, known as the Sons of Iraq or Awakening Councils, say it's the reason for the change.

"Even the friendly (U.S.) troops could not liberate this area," said Khaled Jamal al Qaisi, a colonel in Saddam Hussein's army and the commander of the Sunni militia in Fadl, as he proudly walked the streets of his neighborhood.

Al Qaisi and the other roughly 100,000 men of the mostly Sunni paramilitary groups — which were formed by U.S. troops after tribal sheikhs in Anbar province turned against al Qaida in Iraq and quieted a province once thought lost to insurgents — are now in a delicate balance.

The security gains of the past year — violence in Baghdad is down by 85 percent — are far from secure, although American politicians claim that President Bush's surge of additional U.S. troops has put the United States on a path to victory in Iraq. Unemployment in Sunni areas remains high, basic services are still poor, distrust of the United States and the Shiite-led Iraqi government is widespread and fears of Shiite militias persist.

On Wednesday, al Qaisi and 54,419 other men in Baghdad province will transition to Iraqi government control. That's more than half of the Sons of Iraq (SOI) who're now being paid by the U.S. military to protect neighborhoods — and in some cases not to shoot at American troops.

In its quarterly report on the security situation in Iraq, released Tuesday, the U.S. military found that integrating the Sons of Iraq is one of that nation's biggest security obstacles. It called the slow transition "a concern" and said, " . . . the integration and employment of SOI remains a significant challenge."

The Sons of Iraq worry that putting them under the control of Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki is a ploy to detain and disband them. Already, Sons of Iraq leaders in the northern province of Diyala are hiding in neighboring Syria. In Baghdad, only 3,400 Sons of Iraq have transitioned into the security forces, and barely any have entered the Iraqi army or national police.

Al Qaisi swears that he won't report to the Iraqi Army, despite the fact that he and his men are among the 50,000 or so Sunni militiamen who gave their names to the Iraqi government for registration.

A man with a gruff face and a sharp tongue, al Qaisi said he speaks for a series of armed groups and for some 30,000 men across the country who once fought American troops and the Iraqi government. He's an ally of the U.S. military now, but if he's betrayed he'll become an enemy of the Americans again, he said.

"We would not like to see them fighting the Sons of Iraq again," he said, sitting next to the head of the Sons of Iraq from a neighboring Shiite area. The two groups brought down the concrete wall between their neighborhoods last week in a ceremony to mark the end of the tit-for-tat killings of Shiites and Sunnis that used to happen here.

"I hope the Iraqi government does not commit a mistake against us," he warned.

"Because we fight militias and terrorists, the Sons of Iraq must go," he said. "They (the Iraqi government) worry that we will be the ones who will be elected in the parliament. We are the ones loved in the neighborhoods."

The U.S. government has put backstops in place, said Army Lt. Col. Jeffrey Kulmayer, who's responsible for the program. Currently the plan is to transition the men on Oct. 1, and the Iraqi government has promised to pay their salaries, currently about $300 a month apiece, until they find "meaningful employment."

If the Maliki government doesn't pay the mostly Sunni Arab men, the United States is prepared to continue paying the men until the Iraqi government does, Kulmayer said. U.S. officials also have asked the Maliki government not to act on arrest warrants that are more than six months old.

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By Jason Straziuso - The Associated Press
Posted : Tuesday Sep 30, 2008 16:44:17 EDT

KABUL, Afghanistan — An Afghan policeman opened fire on U.S. troops at a police station, killing an American soldier and wounding three, officials said Monday.

An American commander said U.S. forces in the station in eastern Afghanistan then killed the policeman.

“Initial reports suggest that a rogue ANP (Afghan police) official turned on our forces and shot and killed one of our soldiers, said Col. John “Pete” Johnson, the commander of Task Force Currahee in eastern Afghanistan.

The shooting took place in Paktia province Sunday after American troops and Afghan police brought suspected militants to the station. The policeman wounded three U.S. soldiers, one of the detainees and an Afghan interpreter working for the Americans, officials said.

Three detainees escaped during the confusion, Johnson said. When asked whether the Taliban or another militant group had infiltrated the police, he said it was a possibility.

“I think that’s certainly an assumption that you could make but at this point, I can’t confirm it,” Johnson said. “I don’t know what the motivations were for the ANP (Afghan police) to turn on our forces and shoot them and shoot the detainee. Quite frankly this is way out of the norm. ... This is the first incident of its kind.”

An earlier statement from NATO’s International Security Assistance Force said there was an “altercation” at the station during which an Afghan officer and a NATO soldier were killed. But it did not include any details about how the shooting happened.

That lack of detail angered American commanders, who wanted the incident spelled out clearly.

“The stories I read did not reflect the facts as I know them and I think it’s important for the (Task Force) Currahee family back home, to make sure the facts are out there appropriately,” Johnson said.

British Capt. Mark Windsor, a spokesman for the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan, said the language in the original news release was agreed on by NATO and Afghanistan’s Ministry of Interior, which is in charge of the police.

“In trying to play the incident down, we could have chosen our words better,” Windsor said.

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BBC

Suicide bombers have struck near two Shia mosques in Baghdad, killing 16 people and wounding at least 30, Iraqi security officials said.

The attacks came as worshippers left mosques after prayers celebrating Eid, which marks the end of Ramadan.

At least 12 people died in a suicide car bomb attack in the Zafaraniya district, while at least four people died in a suicide bombing in Jadida.

Meanwhile, six people were killed in an ambush north of Baghdad, police said.

A minibus driver, three women and two five-year-old children were all shot dead near Baquba in Diyala province.

The victims were all Sunnis in an area where the Shia Mehdi army has strong support, says the BBC's Hugh Sykes in Baghdad.

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:) ~ One Reason the L.A. Times Is Terrible

October 4 | Dera Ismail Khan

AP - Militants on Saturday buried the bodies of Arab comrades who were among at least 20 people killed when suspected U.S. missiles hit a house near the Afghan border, Pakistani officials said.

The United States has launched a flurry of strikes in recent weeks against suspected al-Qaida and Taliban targets in northwestern Pakistan, straining ties between the two anti-terror allies.

Pakistan has been unable or unwilling to eliminate militant sanctuaries blamed for rising violence on both sides of the border. The frontier region is believed to be a possible hiding place for al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri.

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“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

Elaine Sciolino | October 3 | Paris

NYT - A coded French diplomatic cable leaked to a French newspaper quotes the British ambassador in Afghanistan as predicting that the NATO-led military campaign against the Taliban will fail. That was not all. The best solution for the country, the ambassador said, would be installing an “acceptable dictator,” according to the newspaper.

“The current situation is bad, the security situation is getting worse, so is corruption, and the government has lost all trust,” the British envoy, Sherard Cowper-Coles, was quoted as saying by the author of the cable, François Fitou, the French deputy ambassador to Kabul.

The two-page cable — which was sent to the Élysée Palace and the French Foreign Ministry on Sept. 2, and was leaked to the investigative and satirical weekly Le Canard Enchaîné, which printed excerpts in its Wednesday issue — said that the NATO-led military presence was making it harder to stabilize the country.

“The presence of the coalition, in particular its military presence, is part of the problem, not part of its solution,” Sir Sherard was quoted as saying. “Foreign forces are the lifeline of a regime that would rapidly collapse without them. As such, they slow down and complicate a possible emergence from the crisis.”

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[Comment: Oh would I have loved to be a fly on the wall. As I believe I mentioned earlier, sounds increasingly like the local allies in Afghanistan, as they are in Iraq, are being viewed as unduly limiting strategic options. Glad I'm not the poor bastard that has to walk that tightrope. ~ JPD]

“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

BBC - The UK's commander in Helmand has said Britain should not expect a "decisive military victory" in Afghanistan.

Brig Mark Carleton-Smith told the Sunday Times the aim of the mission was to ensure the Afghan army was able to manage the country on its own.

He said this could involve discussing security with the Taleban.

When international troops eventually leave Afghanistan, there may still be a "low but steady" level of rural insurgency, he conceded.

He said it was unrealistic to expect that multinational forces would be able to wipe out armed bands of insurgents in the country.

The BBC's Martin Patience in Kabul says Brig Carleton-Smith's comments echo a view commonly-held, if rarely aired, by British military and diplomatic officials in Afghanistan.

Many believe certain legitimate elements of the Taleban represent the positions of the Afghan people and so should be a part of the country's future, says our correspondent.

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[Comment: Now, could someone explain that to the candidates, please. ~ JPD]

“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

Michael Evans | October 6

The Times - Can the Petraeus magic work in Afghanistan? is the question being asked in military circles. General David Petraeus, the architect of the surge, has left Baghdad to take over as commander of US Central Command at the end of the month. The new bailiwick of the man known affectionately as King David includes the hotspots of Iraq, Iran, Syria, Pakistan. But perhaps the greatest immediate challenge is Afghanistan; yesterday Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith, the British Forces commander in Afghanistan, said decisive victory against the Taleban was unrealistic.

General Petraeus, one of the most committed and experienced counter-insurgency experts after his four and a half years of top command in Iraq, will not be in a position to mastermind day-to-day operations in Afghanistan as he did so effectively in Baghdad, especially during the surge period when 30,000 extra American troops were drafted into the Iraqi capital and elsewhere to protect the people from al-Qaeda and Sunni insurgents.

The lessons he learnt in Iraq, however, will play a key role in the way he addresses what has become an incoherent political and military campaign in Afghanistan; but the counter-insurgency guidance he drew up for Iraq that has become the bible for all military commanders, including the British who thought, wrongly, they knew everything about the subject after Malaya and Northern Ireland, cannot easily be transferred to deal with the Taleban because the economic, social and political conditions are so different.

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“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

Anthony Cordesman | September 22

CSIS - Most of the literature on the cost of the Iraq War, Afghan War, and “war on terrorism” focuses on the burden these wars place on the federal budget and the US economy. These are very real issues, but they also have deflected attention from another key issue: whether the war in Afghanistan is being properly funded and being given the resources necessary to win.

Anthony H. Cordesman, the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS, has prepared a new report showing that the US has consistently failed to provide the financial and military resources necessary to win the war, and that these failures may well mean the US is losing it. This report is available on the CSIS web site at:

http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/080919_afghanwarcosts.pdf

It is clear that a US failure to provide the necessary resources to win in Afghanistan is not the only factor in the rising tide of violence there. The weakness of the Afghan central government and the fact that the Taliban-HiG-Haqqani and Al Qa’ida have had a near sanctuary in Pakistan have also played a critical role in the resurgence of the threat, and creating an insurgency that has made major gains over the last four years. The Burke chair recently published a companion report that provides a detailed summary picture of the steady growth in Taliban-HiG-Haqqani and Al Qa’ida threat activity and its impact on US casualties. This analysis is entitled Losing The Afghan-Pakistan War? The Rising Threat, and is available on the CSIS web site at:

http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/080917_afghanthreat.pdf

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“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

This is a letter to the Editor in today's Citizen

We pretend it's about Taliban
The Ottawa Citizen
Published: Sunday, October 05, 2008

Re: We are fed spin on Afghanistan, Sept. 25.

Letter writer Andrew MacDonald writes about wanting "stories that cast other lights on our motives from being there (Afghanistan) other than the self-serving ones we're offered daily."

Here are a few reasons for Canada's presence in Afghanistan whose predictability is matched only by the degree to which their publication is muted and otherwise suppressed. All of the points I make are related to Canadian appeasement of the U.S. government and the transnational business interests they serve.

- Canada is in Afghanistan rather than Iraq to appease our powerful U.S. allies. The Afghanistan counter-insurgency, with its lower casualty rate and NATO approval, is more politically viable than the Iraq quagmire.

- Afghanistan is unfortunately located at the centre of a group of oil and natural gas producers such as Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Iran. The U.S. government and the transnational corporations they serve must control access to these resources.

- Afghanistan itself has considerable natural resources and must not be allowed to control its own resources. Hence, the Afghan people are saddled with the inept and corrupt puppet government of Hamid Karzai who was "selected" by the U.S. government.

- Afghanistan is located at the centre of three nuclear powers: China, Pakistan and India. There is no love between India and Pakistan, and the economies of China and India are expanding at a phenomenal pace. The U.S. government must maintain a military presence in this vital and volatile region.

To justify and hide the main reasons or our presence in that unfortunate country, our government is pretending to believe the Taliban are a genuine threat to the West.

The excellent humanitarian work of Canadian soldiers and aid workers is being used as an emotional smokescreen to discourage dissent and mute critics through a cheap and transparent appeal to emotion.

There, Mr. MacDonald, is the darkness dispelled?

Morgan Duchesney, Ottawa

_{Tolerating prostitution is tolerating abuse and torture of women and children.}

Since international re-engagement in Afghanistan was initiated seven years ago, the key institutions of a permanent government have been established. Considerable progress has been made in rebuilding infrastructure, in expanding access to basic healthcare, and in providing education to an increasing number of Afghan girls and boys across the country.

However, the country's progress is increasingly eclipsed by inter-connected challenges with domestic, international, regional and transnational dimensions that impede its stabilization and reconstruction. Each challenge facing the country feeds off the other and together they have engendered a vicious circle that is destabilizing Afghanistan and increasingly Pakistan too.

Afghanistan is geographically landlocked, politically and economically least-developed, and unfortunately located in a predatory neighborhood, where Pakistan's military establishment has traditionally seen a stable Afghanistan as a threat in the context of the country's hostile relations with India. Also, its nascent state institutions are weak and lack the requisite resources to deliver basic public goods to a population of vulnerable groups (eg, returning refugees, IDPs (internally displaced people), the disabled, former combatants, jobless youth, the elderly, and women and children), all of whom are engulfed in poverty and misery.
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_{Tolerating prostitution is tolerating abuse and torture of women and children.}

Nato has to win in Afghanistan, the Taliban only needs not to lose

Tony Karon

* Last Updated: June 21. 2008 7:20PM UAE / June 21. 2008 3:20PM GMT

Back in April, Afghanistan’s president, Hamid Karzai, dodged a bullet. A fusillade of them, actually, plus a few rocket-propelled grenades, when a ceremony he was addressing came under Taliban attack in the heart of Kabul. Nato spin-doctors immediately dismissed the incident as a case of the Taliban getting lucky. Such increased reliance on terror attacks, they insisted, were signs that the Taliban had grown desperate, having been forced onto the back foot by effective Western counterinsurgency.

Similar sentiments were expressed last week – a week in which Britain’s casualty toll for its Afghan mission passed 100 – after Taliban fighters attacked Kandahar prison and freed 400 of their comrades, and began to take control of a string of villages around the southern city that had once been their spiritual capital.

No amount of wishful thinking can hide the reality, however, that six and a half years after the US-led military intervention that scattered the Taliban, the presence of some 50,000 Nato troops has not prevented the movement from regrouping and mounting a resurgence that has sabotaged plans to rebuild the country on Western-friendly terms. ...

Karen DeYoung | October 9 | Washington D.C.

WaPo - The White House has launched an urgent review of Afghanistan policy, fast-tracked for completion in the next several weeks, amid growing concern that the administration lacks a comprehensive strategy for the foundering war there and as intelligence officials warn of a rapidly worsening situation on the ground.

Underlying the deliberations is a nearly completed National Intelligence Estimate on Afghanistan and the Pakistan-based extremists fighting there. Analysts have concluded that reconstituted elements of al-Qaeda and the resurgent Taliban are collaborating with an expanding network of militant groups, making the counterinsurgency war infinitely more complicated.

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, senior officials have expressed worry that the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan is so tenuous that it may fall apart while a new set of U.S. policymakers settles in. Others believe a more comprehensive, airtight road map for the way ahead would limit the new president's options.

Lt. Gen. Douglas E. Lute, President Bush's senior adviser for Iraq and Afghanistan, has told Pentagon, intelligence and State Department officials to return to the basic questions: What are our objectives in Afghanistan? What can we hope to achieve? What are our resources? What is our allies' role? What do we know about the enemy? How likely is it that weak Afghan and Pakistani governments will rise to the occasion?

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[Comment: Guy's gotta be the lowest profile Czar of anything I've ever seen... ~ JPD]

“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

Mark Mazzetti & Eric Schmitt | October 8 | Washington D.C.

NYTimes - A draft report by American intelligence agencies concludes that Afghanistan is in a “downward spiral” and casts serious doubt on the ability of the Afghan government to stem the rise in the Taliban’s influence there, according to American officials familiar with the document.

The classified report finds that the breakdown in central authority in Afghanistan has been accelerated by rampant corruption within the government of President Hamid Karzai and by an increase in violence by militants who have launched increasingly sophisticated attacks from havens in Pakistan.

The report, a nearly completed version of a National Intelligence Estimate, is set to be finished after the November elections and will be the most comprehensive American assessment in years on the situation in Afghanistan. Its conclusions represent a harsh verdict on decision-making in the Bush administration, which in the months after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks made Afghanistan the central focus of a global campaign against terrorism.

Beyond the cross-border attacks launched by militants in neighboring Pakistan, the intelligence report asserts that many of Afghanistan’s most vexing problems are of the country’s own making, the officials said.

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[Comment: And the Maliki gambit continues... ~ JPD]

“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

Hassan Kazemi-Qomi says Iraqis want Americans out of their country. He speaks highly of Iran's ties with Baghdad.

Ned Parker | October 9 | Baghdad

LATimes - The Iranian Embassy is one of the seats of power in Baghdad. From here, Shiite-ruled Iran has played a key role in Iraqi politics, now also dominated by Shiites. Hassan Kazemi-Qomi, the Iranian ambassador to Iraq, presides over the stately embassy.

Kazemi-Qomi fought in the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war for Iran's Revolutionary Guard, and the former U.S. commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, has accused him of belonging to the Revolutionary Guard's secretive foreign branch, the Quds Force. Tehran has denied the charge.

Sitting with The Times, Kazemi-Qomi warned that the United States had worn out its welcome with the Iraqi people and said that Iraqis did not want a long-term security agreement with the United States. In contrast, he praised Iran's ties with the Baghdad government.

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[h/t Zamin ~ JPD]

“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

Sabrina Tavernise | October 9 | Istanbul

IHT - Turkey's parliament voted overwhelmingly on Wednesday to extend by one year its authorization of military operations against Kurdish separatists in northern Iraq, keeping the door open to future strikes in the region.

The approval, by a vote of 497 to 18, had been largely expected, and occurred amid a flurry of attacks in Turkey's largely Kurdish southeast. Seventeen Turkish soldiers were killed in an attack on a border post late last week, and Turkey responded with several days of air strikes in Iraqi territory. A fresh attack on Wednesday killed five police officers and wounded 19 others on the outskirts of Diyarbakir in the southeast.

Turkey, a NATO member, has been fighting Kurdish separatists in its southeast since the 1980s, though the conflict has died down substantially in recent years. An attack on a border post last year set off a political confrontation between Turkey and Iraq, with Turkey conducting air strikes and a brief ground operation into Iraq.

A government mandate permitting the military to conduct operations outside Turkey was due to expire Oct. 17.

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“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

Kabul may have tried to reach out to current insurgents by meeting with former Taliban in Saudi Arabia late last month.

Anand Gopal | October 9 | Kabul

CSM - The Taliban are not engaged in peace talks with the Afghan government, despite recent reports to the contrary, say sources close to the insurgents and the government.

Instead, meetings held last month in Saudi Arabia – which brought former Taliban officials together with members of the Afghan and Saudi governments – may be an attempt by Kabul to start negotiations with the current Taliban.

"The meetings signal that the Afghan government is weak and is desperate for a solution," says Waheed Muzhda, a political analyst in Kabul and former official in the Taliban government.

They've come at a time when the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan and Pakistan is reaching unprecedented heights, causing some analysts to doubt that the militants will be interested in making peace.

Moreover, the former Taliban members who participated in the Mecca meetings may not have much sway in persuading current militants to come to the table. "These people don't represent the Taliban," Mr. Muzhda says. "Most of the people have almost no standing with the current Taliban leadership."

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“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

By Stephen Farrell, Alissa J. Rubin, Sam Dagher & Erica Goode | October 9 | Baghdad

NYT - Market by market, square by square, the walls are beginning to come down. The miles of hulking blast walls, ugly but effective, were installed as a central feature of the surge of American troops to stop neighbors from killing one another.

“They protected against car bombs and drive-by attacks,” said Adnan, 39, a vegetable seller in the once violent neighborhood of Dora, who argues that the walls now block the markets and the commerce that Baghdad needs to thrive. “Now it is safe.”

The slow dismantling of the concrete walls is the most visible sign of a fundamental change here in the Iraqi capital. The American surge strategy, which increased the number of United States troops and contributed to stability here, is drawing to a close. And a transition is under way to the almost inevitable American drawdown in 2009.

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“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

Eric Schmitt | October 9 | Washington D.C.

NYT - With security and economic conditions in Afghanistan already in dire straits, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Thursday that the situation there would probably only worsen next year.

“The trends across the board are not going in the right direction,” the chairman, Adm. Mike Mullen, told reporters. “I would anticipate next year would be a tougher year.”

Admiral Mullen said Afghanistan was likely to continue what a nearly completed intelligence assessment called “a downward spiral” unless there were rapid, major improvements. Those improvements include curbing Afghanistan’s booming heroin trade, bolstering district and tribal leaders to offset a weak central government in Kabul, breathing life into a flagging economy and stemming the flow of militants who are carrying out increasingly sophisticated attacks from havens in Pakistan.

Admiral Mullen struck a pessimistic note when asked whether it was likely such reversals would take place.

“Both the trends and the status specifically of where we are on those other things right now would indicate that the trends are going to continue,” he said.

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“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

Jeffrey Fleishman | Baghdad |October 10

LATimes - Clashes between Shiite Muslim militants and U.S. and Iraqi troops erupted in east Baghdad on Thursday night when groups loyal to anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada Sadr accused Washington of orchestrating the assassination of a popular lawmaker.

An official at Iraq's Interior Ministry said Sadr's Mahdi Army militiamen fought with U.S. and Iraqi soldiers in the sprawling Sadr City district after mosques broadcast accusations that coalition forces were behind a bombing hours earlier that killed Shiite lawmaker Saleh Uqaili. Explosions and gunfire could be heard in adjacent neighborhoods.

A resident of Sadr City, who gave his name only as Mohammed, said fighting broke out about 11 p.m. as militants clashed with Iraqi soldiers and, later, U.S. troops who arrived for backup. Heavy fighting lasted about an hour and was followed by intermittent gunfire, he said.

The U.S. military said in a statement that coalition forces "received small-arms fire while conducting routine operations," injuring one soldier.

Earlier Thursday, a U.S. military statement blamed the assassination on Shiite rivals of Sadr's movement.

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“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

Military leaders see Kabul's influence as weak amid growing violence and consider working with warlords.

Julian E. Barnes | Washington D.C. | October 9

LATimes - Confronting the prospect of failure after seven years in Afghanistan, the U.S. military is crafting a new strategy that is likely to expand the power and reach of that country's tribal militias while relying less on the increasingly troubled central government.

Under that approach, U.S. forces would scale back combat operations to focus more on training Afghan government forces and tribal militias. The plan is controversial because it could extend the influence of warlords while undermining the government of President Hamid Karzai in Kabul, the capital.

The strategy also could set up a hair-trigger rivalry between national security units and the improved tribal forces, proponents acknowledge.

The U.S. military's willingness to consider such risks reflects the growing worry about worsening conditions in Afghanistan. Until recently, the military would not have considered a move to bolster tribal militias, but, with relatively few troops available, military leaders believe only a new approach to the war can stanch the spreading violence.

"There has been very, very tough fighting this year, and it will be tougher next year unless we adjust," Adm. Michael G. Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters Thursday.

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[Comment: The flies in the ointment that I'd like to see addressed include:

1) Afghanistan does not appear to be the strategic centre of gravity, and

2) Tribal authority has been very significantly degraded over the past couple of decades - living in camps in Pakistan would seem to do that. What does "tribal forces" really mean in this particular context? Not sure that we should think of this as the Kandahar Awakening, exactly... Dexter Filkins had quite an interesting mention when he was flogging his book at the WAC of Northern California about meeting with a tribal leader from Waziristan - guy was absolutely terrified to be meeting with him; very unclear to me how much juice these guys really have, particularly in opposition. ~ JPD]

“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

Ernesto Londoño & Amit R. Paley | Baghdad | October 11

Washington Post - The number of foreign journalists in Baghdad is declining sharply, a media withdrawal that reflects Iraq's growing stability and the financial strains faced by some news organizations.

In a stark indication of the changing media focus here, the number of journalists traveling with American forces in Iraq has plummeted in the past year. U.S. military officials say they "embedded" journalists 219 times in September 2007. Last month, the number shrank to 39. Of the dozen U.S. newspapers and newspaper chains that maintained full-time bureaus in Baghdad in the early years of the war, only four are still permanently staffed by foreign correspondents. CBS and NBC no longer keep a correspondent in Baghdad year-round.

"It remains important and it remains interesting," said Alissa J. Rubin, the New York Times' acting bureau chief in Baghdad. "But what's in front of us now is almost a static situation. There's not a clear narrative line. The stories are more complex."

Veteran journalists say stories about Iraq, where roughly 155,000 U.S. troops are deployed and where the United States spends approximately $10 billion a month, have become tougher to get on the air and into print. News coverage that once centered largely on the U.S. military experience is shifting, like the country itself, to a story of Iraqis taking the halting, often mundane steps toward building their own government.

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[Comment: And the drinking straw through which we view the conflict narrows further. I look forward not at all to what'll happen when the political fantasy narrative has an even more open field to run... Brace yourself America, even more than before you no longer have to be satisfied with history as it was, but as pols wish you to believe it was. The potential of the future spindilating the past. Urgh. ~ JPD]

“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

Judy Dempsey & John F. Burns | Budapest | October 10

NYT - NATO defense ministers agreed Friday to allow troops operating in Afghanistan to attack drug lords and their networks supporting the escalating insurgency in the country.

The agreement came after strong pressure from the United States, which has identified opium trafficking in Afghanistan — the source of more than 90 percent of the world’s heroin supplies — as a primary target in the stepped-up battle against the Taliban insurgency that American commanders have begun mapping out in recent weeks.

But the accord also accommodates objections from some of the 26 NATO nations that contribute troops to the 50,000-strong NATO force. Attacks on drug “facilities and facilitators supporting the insurgency” are to occur only if the NATO and Afghan troops involved have the authorization of their own governments, a provision that will allow dissenting nations to opt out of counternarcotics strikes.

The compromise appeared to satisfy the two American officials who pushed the case for the new policy at a meeting here, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and Gen. John Craddock, the supreme NATO commander. Afterward, Mr. Gates said that the accord would allow “some to do things that others did not want to do,” and added, “It’s better than nothing.”

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[Comment: As the story alludes, the devil's going to be in the caveats. I think what's going to determine this more than anything is what we [that'd be the Canadian "we"], the British and the Dutch do down in Kandahar, Helmand, and Oruzgan. Thing that's really going to make it complicated is any differences between what the US forces and other NATO forces do - IIRC there's a Marine MEU down operating in RC South right now. ~ JPD]

“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

Christina Lamb | Kabul | October 12

The Sunday Times - British officials covered up evidence that a Taliban commander killed by special forces in Helmand last year was in fact a Pakistani military officer, according to highly placed Afghan officials.

The commander, targeted in a compound in the Sangin valley, was one of six killed in the past year by SAS and SBS forces. When the British soldiers entered the compound they discovered a Pakistani military ID on the body.

It was the first physical evidence of covert Pakistani military operations against British forces in Afghanistan even though Islamabad insists it is a close ally in the war against terror.

Britain’s refusal to make the incident public led to a row with the Afghan president Hamid Karzai, who has long accused London of viewing Afghanistan through the eyes of Pakistani military intelligence, which is widely believed to have been helping the Taliban.

“He feels he has been telling everyone about Pakistan for the past six years and here was the evidence, yet London refused to release it, because they care more about their relations with Islamabad than Kabul,” said a source close to the president. “He knows Britain is worried about inflaming its large Pakistani population, but that is no excuse.”

So furious was Karzai that he threatened to expel British diplomats. When some months later he was informed by the governor of Helmand that British officials were secretly negotiating with the Taliban, he expelled two men and accused Britain of wanting to set up a training camp for former Taliban fighters.

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“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

Noor Khan | Kandahar | October 12

AP - Taliban militants launched a surprise attack on a key southern Afghan town, sparking a battle that killed some 60 insurgents, an Afghan official said Sunday. A second clash in the same region killed another 40 militants.

Taliban fighters used rockets and other heavy weapons to attack Afghan forces on the outskirts of Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand province, said Daud Ahmadi, the spokesman for Helmand's governor.

Militants attacked the city from three sides starting just after midnight and were pushed back only after a battle that involved airstrikes, Ahmadi said. Rockets landed in different parts of the city but there were no civilian casualties, he said.

NATO said its aircraft bombed insurgents after they observed them gathering for a major attack, killing "multiple enemy forces," the military alliance said in a statement.

"If the insurgents planned a spectacular attack prior to the winter, this was a spectacular failure," said Brig. Gen. Richard Blanchette, the spokesman for the NATO-led force.

Authorities recovered the bodies of 41 Taliban fighters on the city's outskirts, from where the attack was launched, he said. He estimated the bodies of another 20 fighters were taken from the battle site by the militants, citing intelligence reports.

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“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

As elections approach, the violence is shifting from mass car bombings to specifically targeted killings.

Lela Fadel | Baghdad | October 11

McClatchy - U.S. and Iraqi officials are seeing a shift in violence in Iraq from mass car bombings to assassinations using magnetic bombs, weapons with silencers and bicycle bombs.

As provincial elections approach, some officials worry that assassinations will increase as political parties try to eradicate their competitors.

''Some of the organizations that are seeking political power are resorting to intimidation and violence,'' said Maj. Gen. Michael L. Oates, commander of the Army's 10th Mountain Division, whose area of command includes most of southern Iraq. ``So you'll see individual bombs used against a prominent member of a party. I personally think we will see an uptick of that type of violence as we go into the election cycle because . . . the way some people deal with political tension here is to eliminate the other parties by using violence.''

On Thursday, a prominent parliament member from the Shiite Muslim faction led by radical cleric Muqtada al Sadr was killed near his home when an explosive-laden motorcycle rammed his convoy. Saleh al Ugaili died from his wounds in a Baghdad hospital.

A Karbala city council member was killed by a magnetic bomb attached to his car. In Baghdad, another magnetic bomb killed a man as he drove through a busy shopping district.

[snip]

'I think the political process itself is the target. There are some . . . who don't want the political process to go on and are targeting the politicians,'' said Maysoon al Damluji, a secular legislator who mourned her colleague's death Thursday.

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“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

October 12, 2008

Christina Lamb in Kabul

British officials covered up evidence that a Taliban commander killed by special forces in Helmand last year was in fact a Pakistani military officer, according to highly placed Afghan officials.

The commander, targeted in a compound in the Sangin valley, was one of six killed in the past year by SAS and SBS forces. When the British soldiers entered the compound they discovered a Pakistani military ID on the body.

It was the first physical evidence of covert Pakistani military operations against British forces in Afghanistan even though Islamabad insists it is a close ally in the war against terror.

Britain’s refusal to make the incident public led to a row with the Afghan president Hamid Karzai, who has long accused London of viewing Afghanistan through the eyes of Pakistani military intelligence, which is widely believed to have been helping the Taliban.

“He feels he has been telling everyone about Pakistan for the past six years and here was the evidence, yet London refused to release it, because they care more about their relations with Islamabad than Kabul,” said a source close to the president. “He knows Britain is worried about inflaming its large Pakistani population, but that is no excuse.”

So furious was Karzai that he threatened to expel British diplomats. When some months later he was informed by the governor of Helmand that British officials were secretly negotiating with the Taliban, he expelled two men and accused Britain of wanting to set up a training camp for former Taliban fighters.

Karzai will visit London next month for talks with Gordon Brown in an attempt to repair the strained relations between the two countries.

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13 Oct 2008 00:29:31 GMT

LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki was quoted on Monday as saying it was time for British combat forces to leave the south of the country because they were no longer needed to maintain security and control.

Maliki told The Times newspaper in an interview there might still be a need for their experience in training Iraqi forces and on some technological issues, but the emphasis was now on business links.

He thanked U.S.-led forces for their "important help" but said "the page has been turned".

"The Iraqi arena is open for British companies and British friendship, for economic exchange and positive cooperation in science and education," he said.

Britain was U.S. President George W. Bush's main ally in the March 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that toppled Saddam Hussein from power.

British troops have helped train the Iraqi army and navy, while a special forces unit based in Baghdad has been used to strike at militants from al Qaeda and other groups. Britain has 4,100 troops in Iraq at present.

Maliki referred to what was widely seen as low point in Britain's presence in Iraq when its forces left their base in the southern city of Basra last year for a base at the airport on the outskirts.

"They stayed away from the confrontation, which gave the gangs and militias the chance to control the city," said Maliki.

"The situation deteriorated so badly that corrupted youths were carrying swords and cutting the throats of women and children," he said.

"The citizens of Basra called out for our help ... and (Iraqi forces) moved to regain the city."

Iraqi government fuels 'war for oil' theories by putting reserves up for biggest ever sale

• BP, Shell and Exxon in meeting with minister
• Unprecedented 40bn barrels up for grabs

The Guardian, By Terry Macalister & Nicholas Watt, October 13

The biggest ever sale of oil assets will take place today, when the Iraqi government puts 40bn barrels of recoverable reserves up for offer in London.

BP, Shell and ExxonMobil are all expected to attend a meeting at the Park Lane Hotel in Mayfair with the Iraqi oil minister, Hussein al-Shahristani.

Access is being given to eight fields, representing about 40% of the Middle Eastern nation's reserves, at a time when the country remains under occupation by US and British forces.

Two smaller agreements have already been signed with Shell and the China National Petroleum Corporation, but today's sale will ignite arguments over whether the overthrow of Saddam Hussein was a "war for oil" that is now to be consummated by western multinationals seizing control of strategic Iraqi reserves.

Ernesto Londoño | Baghdad | October 13

WaPo - The commander of U.S. forces in Iraq said Sunday that American intelligence reports suggest Iran has attempted to bribe Iraqi lawmakers in an effort to derail a bilateral agreement that would allow U.S. troops to remain in Iraq after the end of this year.

Gen. Ray Odierno said in an interview that Iran, a Shiite Islamic nation eyed warily by the United States and Sunni Arab countries, is working publicly and covertly to undermine the status-of-forces agreement as officials from Iraq and the United States report nearing a deal that must be ratified by Iraq's parliament.

"Clearly, this is one they're having a full court press on to try to ensure there's never any bilateral agreement between the United States and Iraq," Odierno said. "We know that there are many relationships with people here for many years going back to when Saddam was in charge, and I think they're utilizing those contacts to attempt to influence the outcome of the potential vote in the council of representatives."

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[Comment: Um, duh?! File under: Not a Surprise. Be happy they're using political means rather than EFPs. That said, keep eyes open for allegations of connections to the gathering wave of political violence. ~ JPD]

“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

MD Nalapat | Manipal | October 9

UPI - It is small wonder that Pakistan's army chief, Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, prefers to dial the number of the ever obedient (to him) prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, rather than that of the newly elected president, Asif Ali Zardari, who apparently has undergone an epiphany since assuming what is formally the highest office in his country.

Zardari has changed from cue boy of Inter-Services Intelligence -- and thus by extension the Pakistani army -- to a leader with very different views on the correct path that his country ought to follow. Instead of the endless repetitions of the many "sacred" wars that the military has been touting as justification for taking away one-third of the country's budget -- directly and through agencies connected with it -- Zardari has given public expression to the view of most of Pakistan's non-Wahhabi majority, that it is time to put aside jihad and concentrate on economic growth.

The reason for such a transformation may lie in the clumsy and continuous efforts of the army brass to prevent the heir to the late Benazir Bhutto's mantle from assuming any office in "civilian-controlled" Pakistan. Numerous hints, designed to prod Zardari into selecting yet another army pawn as the head of state, failed. So the generals looked toward the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush to scupper the move, having given their numerous backers in Washington details about Zardari -- details unsuitable for audiences below the age of consent.

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[Comment - Indications that the Pakistanis might be starting to throw al-Qa`eda under the bus? ~ JPD]

“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

The Saudi Arabia-brokered Afghan peace talks that include the Taliban have opened a new turf war. Washington is determined to exclude Russia from the country, even as Moscow insists on its legitimate role. The prospect of peace and a United States-sponsored oil and gas pipeline via Afghanistan suits India, but Delhi has been slow off the mark. Iran has begun counter moves to assert its authority. Hapless Afghans can only look on as others decide their fate. - M K Bhadrakumar (Oct 14, '08)
Asia Times

Grahame Smith | Kabul | October 14

Mope and Wail / Mop and Pail / Globe & Mail - At a gas station on the outskirts of Kabul, lounging in the shade of a transport truck, Mohammed Raza describes how he escaped death.

Last month, a U.S. contractor promised him $10,000 if he'd drive a truck full of diesel from Kabul to Kandahar, offering seven times more than he could earn by transporting his usual shipments of sugar. But the Taliban forbid drivers from carrying fuel to the foreign troops, he said, and the insurgents run checkpoints on the road between Afghanistan's two largest cities. He rejected the offer. One of his friends took the assignment, he said, and the Taliban cut off his head.

"Many drivers now are selling their lives," the 25-year-old said, nervously twisting the fringe of his beard.

The Taliban are isolating Afghanistan's capital city from the rest of the country, choking off important supply routes and imposing their own rules on the provinces near Kabul. Dozens of interviews suggest that the Taliban have gained significant control along three of the four major highways into the city, and some believe it's a matter of time before they regulate all traffic around the capital.

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“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

October 14 | The Independent

Why are we asking this now?

Nato and the US are ramping up the war on drugs in Afghanistan. American ground forces are set to help guard poppy eradication teams for the first time later this year, while Nato's defence ministers agreed to let their 50,000-strong force target heroin laboratories and smuggling networks.

Until now, going after drug lords and their labs was down to a small and secretive band of Afghan commandos, known as Taskforce 333, and their mentors from Britain's Special Boat Service. Eradicating poppy fields was the job of specially trained, but poorly resourced, police left to protect themselves from angry farmers. All that is set to change.

How big is the problem?

Afghanistan is by far and away the world's leading producer of opium. Opium is made from poppies, and it is used to make heroin. Heroin from Afghanistan is smuggled through Pakistan, Russia, iran and Turkey until it ends up on Europe's streets.

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“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

John F. Burns | Kabul | October 14

NYT - American military successes in Iraq have prompted growing numbers of well-trained “foreign fighters” to join the insurgency in Afghanistan instead, the Afghan defense minister said on Tuesday.

The minister, Gen. Abdul Rahim Wardak, said at a news conference that the increased flow of insurgents from outside Afghanistan had contributed to the heightened intensity of the fighting here this year, which he described as the “worst” since the American-led forces toppled the Taliban government in 2001. American commanders have said that overall violence here has increased by 30 percent in the past year and have called for more troops.

The defense minister said that “the success of coalition forces in Iraq” had combined with developments in countries neighboring Afghanistan to cause “a major increase in the number of foreign fighters” coming to Afghanistan.

“There is no doubt that they are better equipped than before,” he said. “They are well trained, more sophisticated, and their coordination is much better.”

His reference to neighboring countries appeared to mean Pakistan, where Islamic militants with bases in tribal areas along the border have intensified their operations, both inside Pakistan and in support of the insurgency in Afghanistan.

American commanders have said that most of the foreign fighters operating in Afghanistan are Pakistanis, Arabs, or from Muslim countries and communities in Central Asia and the Caucasus, including Chechens. But a great majority of the insurgents here are Afghans.

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“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

Sam Dagher | Baghdad | October 14

NYT - A church in the northern city of Mosul was bombed Tuesday as Christians continued to leave the city to escape recent violence that has been directed at them.

Several church leaders accused the Iraqi government of trying to cover up the extent of the problems facing Christians there and of overstating its success in improving security in Mosul, one of the country’s most volatile cities.

As the government announced plans on Tuesday to send officials to Mosul to assist the Christian community, the anti-American Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, who is believed to be in Iran, sent some of his most senior aides from the holy Shiite city of Najaf to Baghdad to meet with church leaders in an expression of solidarity.

“For Christians in Mosul this is a time for tears, because from the beginning we did not get support, least of all from state officials,” Msgr. Shlemon Warduni, the auxiliary bishop of the Chaldean Patriarchate, told the Shiite delegation during a meeting on Tuesday at the Virgin Mary Church in eastern Baghdad.

“The government acted only belatedly,” he said.

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

A few fringe groups seek to sow chaos, convinced it will hasten the arrival of the Mahdi, the Shiites' 12th imam who they believe will bring peace.

Usama Redha | Baghdad |October 15

LATimes - Falling into a depression after her husband was killed last year, Iman immersed herself in religious studies and became fixated on a Shiite Muslim saint.

Soon, a secretive group of worshipers tried to recruit the young widow, telling her that she could help bring the holy figureback to Earth. All she had to do was sleep with the group's male followers.

Horrified, Iman, now 20, refused.

Her experience shines a light on the rise in Iraq of fanatical cults devoted to Imam Mahdi, the Shiites' 12th imam. A descendant of the prophet Muhammad, he disappeared more than 1,000 years ago.

The Shiite faithful believe that in the world's darkest hour, Imam Mahdi will return and bring justice and calm. But where mainstream Shiite believers wait patiently for that day, groups such as the one that tried to enlist Iman are convinced that they can hasten his reappearance by spreading chaos.

Devout Sunnis also believe in the Mahdi's coming, but do not think it involves the Shiite imam.

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

In provinces just south of Kabul, the insurgents have a shadow government that polices roads and runs courts.

Anand Gopal | Porak | October 15

CSM - After a gang of thieves had continually terrorized an Afghan neighborhood near here months ago, locals decided they'd had enough. "We complained several times to the government and even showed them where the thieves lived," says Ahmad, who goes by one name.

But the bandits continued to operate freely. So the villagers turned to the Taliban.

The militants' parallel government here in Logar Province – less than 40 miles from Kabul, the capital – tried and convicted the men, tarred their faces, paraded them around, and threatened to chop off their hands if they were caught stealing in the future. The thieves never bothered the locals again.

In several provinces close to Kabul, the government's presence is vanishing or already nonexistent, residents say. In its place, a more effective – and brutal – Taliban shadow government is spreading and winning local support.

"The police are just for show," one local says. "The Taliban are the real power here."

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[Comment: The parallel authority structures are positively Maoist. Antonio Giustozzi must be absolutely beside himself. Let me lay it out for the class [MNSHO, anyway] - if you don't have security, you don't have shit. Here we don't have security because we don't have the force density, particularly indigenous forces. 'course, given that everyone now wants to magically focus on the more attractive parts of a counterinsurgency campaign - yeah, Canadian voter, I'm talking to you - we're unlikely ever to have sufficient force density. ~ JPD]

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

New York | October 14

AFP - he UN special envoy for Afghanistan warned Tuesday not to expect a lull in attacks by Taliban rebels and Al-Qaeda extremists this winter as was the case in previous years.

Briefing the UN Security Council on the latest developments in the strife-torn country, Kai Eide confirmed a "deteriorating (security) situation in last few months."

"In July and August, we witnessed the highest number of insecurity incidents since 2002," he said, with attacks up 40 percent compared with the same period last year.

He cited a decrease in attacks last month during the holy Muslim month of Ramadan but quickly added: "We now see an increase again in the number of incidents and we must expect that this number ... will continue to climb further over the next weeks."

In this regard, Eide noted that the insurgents had spread their influence of insurgents beyond the traditional areas in southern and the eastern Afghanistan.

He also pointed to a hike in "asymmetric (unconventional warfare) attacks (by insurgents), some of them very sophisticated" and to more "and sometimes deadly attacks against aid-related and humanitarian targets, including against NGOs (non-governmental organizations) and UN personnel."

"We should not expect the same winter lull in the level of hostilities that we have experienced in past winters," Eide noted, while cautioning against "gloom-and-doom statements."

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

Ernesto Londoño | Baghdad | October 16

WaPo - The U.S. military on Wednesday announced the death of a man it described as the No. 2 leader of the Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq.

The military said it killed Abu Qaswarah on Oct. 5 during an operation in northern Iraq in which four additional alleged al-Qaeda in Iraq members were slain. Abu Qaswarah, also known as Abu Sara, directed the group's operations in northern Iraq, where al-Qaeda in Iraq remains entrenched and has been blamed for recent large-scale attacks, the military said.

Abu Qaswarah had no public profile in Iraq before the military's announcement of his death. U.S. military officials say they have been stunned by how quickly al-Qaeda in Iraq regenerates its leadership as top insurgents are detained or killed.

The military said in a statement issued Wednesday afternoon that the Moroccan native was the deputy of the group's leader, Abu Hamza al-Muhajer, also known as Abu Ayyub al-Masri, and had "historic ties" to the group's founder, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who was killed in June 2006. Abu Qaswarah became the group's top leader in northern Iraq in June 2007, the military said.

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

Thom Shanker | Washington D.C. | October 15

NYT - Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Wednesday that the mission to stabilize Afghanistan had shown significant gaps in the ability of the United States and NATO to integrate their civilian and military efforts, and he warned that it “remains to be seen” whether the allies could better coordinate their work.

To be successful in Afghanistan, Mr. Gates said, the entire NATO alliance, the European Union and nongovernmental development organizations “must better integrate and coordinate with one another and also with the Afghan government.”

“These efforts today — however well intentioned and even heroic — add up to less than the sum of the parts,” Mr. Gates said.

The main objective of the NATO defense ministerial meeting last week was to take concrete steps “to reverse that equation,” Mr. Gates noted. He added, “Whether we will make progress remains to be seen.”

The defense secretary’s grim assessment came in an evening address to the United States Institute of Peace in which he described the Afghanistan security and stabilization mission as “the test, on the grandest scale, of what we are trying to achieve when it comes to integrating the military and civilian, the public and private, the national and international.”

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

16 Oct 2008 12:43:34 GMT

KABUL, Oct 16 (Reuters) - An Afghan policeman shot dead a U.S. soldier in the eastern province of Paktika on Thursday, a provincial official and the U.S. military said.

Provincial governor Akram Akhpalwak said a number of Western troops and Afghan officials were at a routine meeting in Bermel district when an Afghan policeman shot dead the soldier from a watchtower.

Coalition troops then returned fire and killed the attacker.

"It is still unclear why the attack took place," provincial governor Akram Akhpalwak said.

A U.S. military statement said the Afghan policeman had opened fire and thrown a grenade at a dismounted patrol that was returning to a forward base.

Ann Scott Tyson | October 16

WaPo - Gen. David H. Petraeus has launched a major reassessment of U.S. strategy for Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and the surrounding region, while warning that the lack of development and the spiraling violence in Afghanistan will probably make it "the longest campaign of the long war."

The 100-day assessment will result in a new campaign plan for the Middle East and Central Asia, a region in which Petraeus will oversee the operations of more than 200,000 American troops as the new head of U.S. Central Command, beginning Oct. 31.

The review will formally begin next month, but experts and military officials involved said Petraeus is already focused on at least two major themes: government-led reconciliation of Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the leveraging of diplomatic and economic initiatives with nearby countries that are influential in the war.

The review comes as Petraeus, who led a counterinsurgency effort credited with drastically reducing attack levels in Iraq, faces widespread expectations that he will find a way to arrest escalating violence and U.S. troop casualties in Afghanistan, fueled by growing militant havens in Pakistan.

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

Salah Hemeid | Cairo | October 16

al-Ahram - Early this month, Egypt's Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit travelled to Baghdad, in the first visit by an Egyptian chief diplomat since 1990 when the two Arab countries severed ties after Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait. A few days later Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces followed suit and flew in with a delegation of several high ranking officials. The visits by the Egyptian and UAE officials capped several ventures by other top Arab officials, including King Abdullah II of Jordan and Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora, signaling a change of heart by the Arabs after years of coolness.

While in Baghdad Abul-Gheit, who was accompanied by the Minister of Petroleum Sameh Fahmi, promised that Cairo will restore full diplomatic relations with Baghdad and send an ambassador in due time and also announced that Egypt will embark on closer economic cooperation with Iraq including rebuilding its devastated oil and electricity sectors.

Following Sheikh Mohamed's visit, the UAE also announced that it will inject hundreds of millions of dollars into Iraq's telecoms and property projects. The Emirates had earlier cancelled all Iraq's debts, estimated at $7 billion. Jordan, Bahrain, Syria and the Arab League have already named ambassadors and Saudi Arabia has hinted of a similar warming soon. Other Arab countries had said that they were planning to improve their political, economic and trade ties with Iraq in line with a resolution by the 2006 Arab summit in Riyadh.

The Arabs' sudden rush to Baghdad raised questions about its timing and motives. It signalled success for Washington's efforts to get Iraq's Sunni Arab neighbours to overcome security fears and mistrust of the government in Baghdad which they have shunned since the 2003 American invasion. It also marked a departure from the policy of isolating they had implemented against the Shia-led government.

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

Nir Rosen | 30 October

Rolling Stone - The highway that leads south out of Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, passes through a craggy range of arid, sand-colored mountains with sharp, stony peaks. Poplar trees and green fields line the road. Nomadic Kuchi women draped in colorful scarves tend to camels as small boys herd sheep. The hillsides are dotted with cemeteries: rough-hewn tombstones tilting at haphazard angles, multicolored flags flying above them. There is nothing to indicate that the terrain we are about to enter is one of the world's deadliest war zones. On the outskirts of the capital we are stopped at a routine checkpoint manned by the Afghan National Army. The wary soldiers single me out, suspicious of my foreign accent. My companions, two Afghan men named Shafiq and Ibrahim, convince the soldiers that I am only a journalist. Ibrahim, a thin man with a wispy beard tapered beneath his chin, comes across like an Afghan version of Bob Marley, easygoing and quick to smile. He jokes with the soldiers in Dari, the Farsi dialect spoken throughout Afghanistan, assuring them that everything is OK.

As we drive away, Ibrahim laughs. The soldiers, he explains, thought I was a suicide bomber. Ibrahim did not bother to tell them that he and Shafiq are midlevel Taliban commanders, escorting me deep into Ghazni, a province largely controlled by the spreading insurgency that now dominates much of the country.

much, much more

[Comment: Nir Rosen embeds...with the Taliban. h/t Abu Muqawama ~ JPD]

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass