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The Jehoshua Novels


The Wile E. Coyote Economy

When I was a child my favourite cartoon program was the Looney Tunes. Bugs was my favourite, but in constant play were the Roadrunner cartoons, in which the starving (and very clever) Wile. E. Coyote would set out to get himself supper by catching the roadrunner. Unlucky Wile never managed to succeed, but in trying he inevitably wound up blowing himself up, getting hit by large objects, or falling to his death.

The current economic and market situation reminds me of how Wile would die from falling. On occasion he’d race off a huge cliff (apparently he always chased the roadrunner right next to the Grand Canyon). He’d run off the cliff in a straight horizontal line, as if there was still ground under his feet, and then come to a stop in mid air. He’d look around, then he’d look down. Seeing the mile of dead air beneath him, he’d gulp and immediately plummet to the ground, where he’d wind up as a pancake.

In the world of cartoon physics, the law of gravity didn’t take effect until you realized you’d been breaking it. Once you did, whoosh!

The US economy and US markets, indeed the world economy and markets, have been operating like Wile. E. Coyote running off a cliff. By my estimate we’ve been off the cliff since at least 2004. Some would put the moment a couple years back from that, or maybe a year forward. But for years many of us have been looking at the US the way a spectator might look at a coyote who performed in the real world what Wile did in a cartoon, scratching our heads and wondering ”œWhat the heck is keeping him up there?”

A large part, but not the only part, of what’s been keeping the economy up there, instead of down in a ditch, is the same thing that keeps Wile up. As long as no one believes the US economy is massively overextended, that collaterlized debt instruments were properly valued, that derivatives based profits and valuations weren’t illusionary, they were willing to keep lending the US and Wall Street money and buying their pieces of paper. And as long as the money kept flowing, consumers could keep spending, brokers could keep selling collateralized debt obligations of various kinds, and everything was great ”“- especially if you were one of those getting multi-million dollar bonuses for profits on paper that are likely to turn out to have never existed.

More After the Jump

It all started coming apart with the subprime mortgage crisis. It should be emphasized that problems extend far, far beyond subprime, but it’s there that they first showed up, where they first became undeniable. It’s then that Wile, scanning the horizon, though to himself, ”œGee, I don’t see any ground. Maybe I should look down.” As people realized there was no “there,” there; that many of these mortgage backed securities were worth cents on the dollar, they stopped being willing to buy them. The defaults started occurring and as people kept looking more and more they began to be forced to actually consider ”œHow much is this worth?” And they didn’t stop at subprime mortgages.

Now the reason this mattered is that most Wall Street firms (and many banks) have a ton of this paper, and they are also heavily leveraged with loans. Those loans are loaned against the value of their portfolios. So when other firms and various banks started realizing the paper was worthless they stopped wanting to continue to extend loans. When the loans came due (and most loans these days are short term, from days to months) they didn’t just roll them over.

Without the loans firms began to face the possibility that to meet their obligations, to pay back the non-rolled-over loans, they might have to actually come up with cash. Which means they might actually have to sell some of this paper. And if they sold it, they’d know what it was worth. And if they knew what it was worth, they’d have to mark down all of it in their portfolio And if it’s really worth cents on the dollar, well that could wipe out billions. In fact, it could wipe out the entire capital of firms.

Which is where we come to Level 2 and 3 Assets:

There’s a mystery on Wall Street. Merrill Lynch last week wrote off $8.4 billion in its subprime mortgage business, a figure revised up from $4.9 billion, yet Goldman Sachs reported an excellent quarter and didn’t feel the need for any write-offs. The real secret of the difference is likely to be in the details of their accounting, and in particular in the murky world, shortly to be revealed, of their ”œLevel 3” asset portfolios….

…From November 15, we will have a new tool for figuring out how much toxic waste is in investment banks’ balance sheets. The new accounting rule SFAS157 requires banks to divide their tradeable assets into three ”œlevels” according to how easy it is to get a market price for them. Level 1 assets have quoted prices in active markets. At the other extreme Level 3 assets have only unobservable inputs to measure value and are thus valued by reference to the banks’ own models.

Goldman Sachs has disclosed its Level 3 assets, two quarters before it would be compelled to do so in the period ending February 29, 2008. Their total was $72 billion, which at first sight looks reasonable because it is only 8% of total assets. However the problem becomes more serious when you realize that $72 billion is twice Goldman’s capital of $36 billion. In an extreme situation therefore, Goldman’s entire existence rests on the value of its Level 3 assets.

The same presumably applies to other major investment banks ”“ since they employ traders and risk managers with similar educations, operating in a similar culture, they probably have Level 3 assets of around twice capital….

…There has been no rush to disclose Level 3 assets in advance of the first quarter in which it becomes compulsory, probably that ending in February or March 2008. Figures that have been disclosed show Lehman with $22 billion in Level 3 assets, 100% of capital, Bear Stearns with $20 billion, 155% of capital and J.P. Morgan Chase with about $60 billion, 50% of capital. However those figures are almost certainly low; the border between Level 2 and Level 3 is a fuzzy one and it is unquestionably in the interest of banks to classify as many of their assets as possible as Level 2, where analysts won’t worry about them, rather than Level 3, where analyst concern is likely.

The reason analysts should worry is that not only are Level 3 assets subject to eccentric valuation by the institution holding them, but the ability to write up their value in good times and get paid bonuses based on their capital uplift brings a temptation that few on Wall Street appear capable of resisting. Both Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch are reported to have made profits of more than $1 billion on their holdings of Level 3 assets in the first half of 2007, for example, profits on which bonuses will no doubt be paid at the end of their fiscal years…

…Defenders of Goldman Sachs and the rest of Wall Street will insist that less than 27% of their level 3 assets are represented by subprime mortgages yet that is hardly the point. Subprime mortgages, estimated to cause losses of $400-500 billion to the market as a whole, though only a fraction of that to Wall Street, have been only the first of the Level 3 asset disasters to surface. There is huge potential for further losses among assets whose value has never been solidly based.

The author, Martin Hutchinson, then goes on to detail a number of very risky, and likely overvalued asset classes. But let’s step back a bit and examine the levels of assets:

Level 1 means the values come from quoted prices in active markets. The balance-sheet changes then pass through the income statement each quarter as gains or losses. Call this mark-to-market.

Level 2 values are measured using “observable inputs,” such as recent transaction prices for similar items, where market quotes aren’t available. Call this mark-to-model.

Then there’s Level 3. Under Statement 157, this means fair value is measured using “unobservable inputs.” While companies can’t actually see the changes in the fair values of their assets and liabilities, they’re allowed to book them through earnings anyway, based on their own subjective assumptions. Call this mark-to-make-believe.

For years now, much, and in some cases most of the capital of most Wall Street firms and many banks has been in assets that are either ”œmark to model” or ”œmark to make-believe”. Which is to say that the assets were traded so thinly that there was no market price to check them against, or that such market prices as existed were either very rare, and/or were sales between firms with similar expectations of what such assets might be worth.

But then there’s this thing called the ”œreal world” which dared to intervene. Housing sales slowed. Prices began to drop. Jumper mortgages where you start with a low rate then jump to a higher variable rate started to reset. Those unfortunate enough to take Greenspan’s advice and take variable rate mortgages also suffered from them.

In short, defaults and the prospect of defaults began to go through the roof. The collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) stopped performing, or people realized that there was a good chance that they soon would. Because at the end of the day a CDO is supposed to supply its owner with regular chunks of money. If it doesn’t, it’s not worth squat, and no one can pretend it is. It’s just a bad loan.

Now if the problem here was just ”œsubprime mortgages,” Wall Street would take a lickin’ and keep on tickin’. But as Hutchinson points out there’s a ton of bad paper out there: securitized credit card loans, mortgages other than subprime, asset-backed commercial paper and more. The list goes on and on.

Wall Street and America’s banks made a ton of money because the people who decided how much their assets were worth were the same people who owned the assets. And since their bonuses were based on how much those assets were worth, let’s just say those assets were worth a lot. It takes a lot of ”œprofit” to justify bonuses equal to the raises of 80 million Americans, after all.

Bernanke and the Fed are aware there’s a problem, and their easing of interest rates and other actions like forcing loans on the banks have been an attempt to deal with the problem by providing ”œliquidity”. But here’s the problem: you can give the banks money, or lend it to them, but you have a hard time making them buy huge steaming piles of crap. This isn’t the Long Term Capital fiasco where some trades went bad but there was good reason to believe that if you held onto the position and unwound it you might make money. The underlying instruments are probably crap and you will never make your money back if you buy them at face (or that’s the fear, and it’s well founded). Nor is it nearly as small as Long Term Capital fiasco was; the amounts of money involved today are magnitudes larger. So the banks, while making ”œgood citizen” noises, are mostly not willing to take that money and bail out those of their colleagues and competitors who are holding onto reams of worthless paper (the membership of which includes some big banks as well, including Citigroup).

Because this issue extends beyond Wall Street and into banks, most of whom were eager to get in on the easy and big money they saw securities firms and hedge funds earning, the consequences are going to be very, very real for ordinary people. When the banks have to take large write-downs the amount of money they will have available to lend to businesses and possibly even to consumers will also decline. Bernanke may make interest rates low, but if this cascade continues, and there’s no reason to believe it won’t, there simply won’t be the money to lend. (As an aside, this is exactly the reason why Great Depression lawmakers forbade banks to get involved in securities businesses. Removing those laws set the stage for what is happening.)

Likewise, and worse, foreigners watching the debacle are becoming increasingly unwilling to lend the US more money. Since the US requires a huge inflow of money every day to continue operating and for its consumers to continue spending, this is a potentially destabilizing situation. It is, of course, possible for foreign banks to step in, and indeed, over the last seven years foreign currency markets have been dominated by the actions of central banks, especially those of Japan and China. But China, in particular, is experiencing large rises in wages. Inflation is already much higher than the official figure and with rising wages will become higher still. Every dollar the Chinese have bought had to be bought, in essence, by printing Yuan. Those Yuan, as people cash out of dollars, are coming back into China and pumping inflation even further.

Which is to say, the cost for China of continuing to lend the US money by propping up the US dollar may soon exceed the benefits to them of doing so. It is true that if China stops propping up the US dollar and the US consumer then US demand for Chinese good will collapse, but significant goods inflation in Chinese goods from domestic Chinese inflation, plus reduced US spending as the home-loan ATM comes to an end in the US because the housing bubble has ended and Americans just can’t borrow any more mean that the US consumer is about tapped out anyway. It’s been a long run, but it’s about to come to an end. Especially as US consumers are being squeezed by stagnant wages, double digit food and energy inflation, and now by consumer good inflation. And if doubts about collateralized credit card loans start to take effect, the apparently endless willingness of credit card companies to extend seemingly unlimited credit to consumers may come to an end as well. The new leg-breaking bankruptcy bill hasn’t repealed the basic reality that you can’t get blood for a stone, and if people are walking away from their houses anyway (and many more will be ) what are you going to seize in terms of assets?–Fight it out with whoever holds the mortgage after default. If you can figure out who that is.

And this contagion will not stay limited to the US. I’ve recently heard talk by fools about how the Canadian economy, for example, has decoupled from the US one. That’s stupid and crazy talk; just because Americans have to buy our oil and electricity doesn’t mean that if our number one trade partner goes into an awful recession or depression we’re going to somehow ride it out. This is true for everyone ”“- China, India, Europe. Even if the US isn’t a particular country’s main trade partner, for the past 7 years the vast majority (over 80% by some counts) of all the world’s savings, have been pouring into the US. When the crap those savings bought gets downgraded into cents on the dollar it is going to cascade through the financial firms and banks the world around; is going to depress foreign consumer spending and is going to collapse worldwide demand. The end result will be a huge wave of unemployment. And as Numerian alludes it will probably start of as a stagflationary wave and turn into deflation.

This, ladies and gentlemen, is going to be a big one. Best case scenario is something like the late seventies and early eighties, which as those old enough to have live through them, were truly awful. Worst case scenario is we’re walking into the next Great Depression.

And if somehow we manage to put it off for a bit longer (we won’t put it off forever) it will because we do two things. We look resolutely up and refuse to look down, which is to say we pretend the paper is worth more than it is. And because we do a massive inflationary bailout of banks and firms by essentially printing huge amounts of money.

But as with Wile. E. Coyote, we can’t keep walking on air forever.. Once you’ve looked down and seen the abyss below your feet, gravity takes over. Too many people have to pretend now that they haven’t seen that the paper is worth almost nothing and fear is taking over. No one wants to be caught with the steaming pile in their laps when the music stops.

It hasn’t stopped yet, but one needs to remember that in early 1930 no one knew the Great Depression was underway either. We’re still looking down, and thinking ”œoh no” and looking to see if with a jump we can grab on to the cliff edge.

I don’t think we’re going to make it. And if we don’t the consequences will go far beyond the economic and into the political. In the early 30′s Americans were willing to do almost anything to fix things. They got FDR, and if he didn’t entirely fix things, he certainly made them a lot better. But they didn’t have to get FDR and a lot of other countries weren’t so lucky.

We’ve made our bad luck, with our fecklessness and our greed.

Can we make our own good luck?

11 comments to The Wile E. Coyote Economy

  • Anonymous

    Ian,
    There is a magazine from MIT called Technology Review. It has a very interesting article this month on the ‘blow up’ in the market since the sub-prime mess started from the view of ‘quants’ (quantitative analysis). Since the quants are the people who engineer derivatives (CDOs!) and the trading algorithms used by hedge funds, they are at the center of the current storm. A very good (and easy) read!
    T.R.’s website requires registration to read the article (The Blow Up by Bryant Urstadt)
    https://www.technologyreview.com/Biztech/19529/
    or you can just check out the google cached version

    …Part 1
    link

    ….Part2

    link

    (hope those convert to links!)

    if you don’t want to share your info. Give it a look!

    “Nobody knew that what happened in the subprime market could affect what was going on in the quant equity funds,” he says. “There’s too much complexity, too much derivative innovation. These are the brightest people in the business. If it could happen to them, it could happen to anyone. No one could have predicted the linkage.”
    Linkage is one of Bookstaber’s favorite topics. He believes that quants’ instruments have “linked markets together that wouldn’t normally be linked,” and that such linkages are dangerous because they are unforeseen.

    Wild stuff!

  • Zman1527

    And you can see we are nowhere near a solution. Look at what Hank proposed: a Super SIV! And point no fingers! Yes, no one did anything wrong. No one’s to blame! And more of the same will fix it all.

    How ugly will it get? As a 53 year old Uhmerikan, it is hard to imagine things getting really bad here. I have never seen it. I lived through the 70s and early 80s but it was not that bad. Can it really get a lot worse than that? I am very afraid it can. Got gold?

  • miles becker

    If as some believe the Iranians in response to an American attack would be capable of sinking many or most of the US warships in the Gulf, as well as causing serious casualties in Iraq, and if as some believe such an attack/response would bring in Israel, Syria and Lebanon, at least, then we would be involved in a ‘war’ of a very different kind than the war in Iraq. Not to mention the ‘oil shock.’

    If you are one of the folks with a ‘steaming pile’ to deal with is the chaos of such a situation a benefit, or a problem?

  • Tony Wikrent

    Unfortunately, the irony of implicitly
    arguing that derivatives merely represent the latest,
    albeit bewilderingly complex, development of
    “capitalism,” is lost on most people, since they
    mistakenly believe that monetary and financial processes
    alone comprise an economy. The fact is that the monetary
    and financial processes superimposed on the world economy
    by the financiers of the cities of London and New York do
    NOT represent capitalism. This is highlighted by two
    recently released reports, one from the Bank for
    International Settlements (BIS) and the other from the
    U.S. Federal Reserve. Both are part of an ongoing
    discussion about how to regulate trading in derivatives…

    This is not capitalism. It does not even deserve to
    be called a “system.” It is monetarism and usury,
    unleashed, untrammeled, run amock. It is a parasite that
    has become tens of times larger than its host.

    Back at the beginning of the U.S. republic, some had
    a good idea of what capitalism is. Alexander Hamilton, in
    No. 15 of {The Federalist Papers,} devised a test,
    succinctly expressed in only one sentence: “Is private
    credit the friend and patron of industry?” Of course, in
    those days, they also had a good idea of what industry is.
    There are today, for example, fools who talk, with
    completely straight faces, about the “leisure industry,”
    referring to chains of hotels with too many rooms and
    too few vacationers; or the “gaming industry,” referring
    to the vice of gambling; or the “entertainment
    industry,” referring to a process of national menticide.

    The point is, that the financial and monetary system
    must be subordinated to the primary task of the
    economy–which is the organization of the means and powers
    of production for the purpose of applying the scientific
    and technological fruits of creative human mentation to
    the useful transformation of nature and natural resources;
    “useful” meaning that it aids and abets the human race
    in the birth, raising, and sustenance of successive new
    generations. It is the same point made by Sony founder and
    chairman Akio Morita, when he says that finance should
    serve to smooth the way for production….

    The BIS report warned that “the perceived credit
    standing of a financial institution can deteriorate
    rapidly. Since the failure of one such key player would
    entail larger losses to other participants in the markets
    than if exposures were more dispersed, increased
    concentration implies that financial market stability
    could be affected more heavily than in the past by the
    sudden decline of any such firm.”

    ….on March 4, Salomon announced it had lost $250 million from trading for its own account. “What in God’s name could you do in
    two months to lose a quarter-billion?” {Business Week}
    quoted one Salomon rival asking rhetorically.

    The question was answered at the end of the article:
    The assumptions used to program the computers on Wall
    Street are proving to be all wrong. “The models are fine,
    given the right volatility assumptions,” said First
    Boston Corp. director Andrew S. Carron. But, “there’s no
    way of knowing for certain that you’ve put in the right
    assumptions.”

    Stephen Robert, chairman of Oppenheimer and Co., told
    {Business Week,} “Risk managers at brokerage firms talk
    about [being hedged enough to protect themselves if prices
    move] two standard deviations from the norm. However, it’s
    the third standard deviation that happens once in a blue
    moon–that’s what kills you.”

    The real problem, of course, is that until it’s
    understood that those processes are actually
    “cancerism,” there are going to be a lot more blue moons.

    I wrote that in March 1993. Yeah, 1993. Part of a campaign to impose a universal one tenth of one percent tax on all derivatives and financial transactions. My article in 1993 was largely a response to the March 29, 1993 issue of {Forbes} magazine which referred derisively to “critics who long for a simpler variety of capitalism–or for no capitalism at all.”

    Not enough people understood the essential difference between finance and real economics back then, and I fear not enough people understand it now. I fell silent after years of watching “them” find new band-aids and other expedients to keep the system croaking along. And it really does not make me feel better to say, some fifteen years later, “told ya so.” I’m just more pissed off than ever.

  • tjfxh

    When the country starts living off the cards to keep up their standard of living, the end is indeed near.

    Credit Cards: The Next Subprime Crisis Hotlist
    by gjohnsit

  • Jimbo92107

    …people’s jobs depend on refusing to acknowledge the truth about an impending catastrophe.
    .
    “Adapt or perish.” Murphy’s Law? Nope, Darwin’s Guarantee.

  • tjfxh

    The gentlemen at Pimco are, once again, the leading cheerleaders for another round of easier “money.” Calling for the Fed to cut rates to 3.5%, Bill Gross commented Wednesday on Bloomberg television: “The nominal [third quarter] GDP number was 4.7%. Any time you get a nominal GDP growth less than 5% the economy is basically struggling. The U.S. needs at least 5% nominal growth in order to pay its bills on a longer term basis.”

    I will, once again, take the other side of their analysis. First of all, 4.7% traditional nominal GDP growth would have easily in the past “paid its bills.” It doesn’t get it done today – even with 4.7% unemployment – specifically because of a long period of gross monetary excess. For some time now, the U.S. economy has been hopelessly finance-driven, and the greater and more protracted the Credit excesses the greater the “transformation” of the economic structure. And it is the underlying real economy that today cannot “pay its bills” and is therefore hooked on ever increasing Credit inflation. This should by now be recognized as the Road to Ruin.

    [continued]
    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IK06Dj01.html

  • Tony Wikrent

    Holy credit crash, Batman! You really need to read the entire article linked to above.
    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IK06Dj01.html
    Here’s some of the juicier stuff.

    I wouldn’t bet on the stock market holding 2007 gains for another eight weeks. The Credit meltdown is now moving too fast and furious. Importantly, confidence is faltering for the entire Credit insurance industry, including the mortgage insurers and the financial guarantors. This is a devastating blow for the securitization marketplace, already reeling from pricing, liquidity and trust issues. The Credit system has lurched to the edge of meltdown, while the economy hasn’t even as yet succumbed to recession. It’s absolutely scary. Last week I wrote that subprime and the SIVs were “peanuts” in comparison to the CDO market. Well, the CDO marketplace is chump change compared to Credit Default Swaps and other over-the-counter (OTC) Credit derivatives that, by the way, have never been tested in a Credit or economic downturn.

    The scale of the Credit “insurance” problem is astounding. According to the Bank of International Settlements, the OTC market for Credit default swaps (CDS) jumped from $4.7 TN at the end of 2004 to $22.6 TN to end 2006. From the International Swaps and Derivatives Association we know that the total notional volume of credit derivatives jumped about 30% during the first half to $45.5 TN. And from the Comptroller of the Currency, total U.S. commercial bank Credit derivative positions ballooned from $492bn to begin 2003 to $11.8 TN as of this past June. . . .

    The general inability to hedge escalating default and market risk has become and will remain a major systemic problem. Liquidity has disappeared, and there now exists an untenable overhang of risky securities and derivatives to be liquidated and/or hedged. Most playing in the Credit derivatives market lack the wherewithal to deliver on their obligations in the (now likely) event of a systemic Credit bust.

    [continued]
    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IK06Dj01.html

  • jo6pac

    Hello
    I thought you were suppose to put a little $ aside for a rainy day but noooo WS decided if you have some $ you could borrow more to buy more worthless paper and get the bonus while you can. It’s been fun watching this but it time to say Stick a fork in it, it’s done.

    Thanks Ian, you should post this at FDL, must would understand it. It’s not only about P but $ to in this cycle.
    jo6pac
    PS Tom I would like to had the chance to read it then, right on call.
    Greed is Good

  • Amos Anan

    I don’t know if you were first with this recent invocation of the Wile-E cartoon meme, but its been carried to the shrill one. Unfortunately he sites other sources.

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/11/08/cartoon-physics-and-the-markets/

    Personally I never liked the Wile-E-Coyote cartoons. The special cartoon world was rigged against him. Roadrunner could run off cliffs and come back. Roadrunner could stand near bombs and they never went off. Roadrunner could run through a road that Wile-E painted on a stone wall.

    There was no special talent to Roadrunner’s abilities. That is, other than the people drawing the scenes

    Sort of like Republicans today and crimes and misdemeanors, incompetence and malfeasance.

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