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The Truth Of Reagan's Economic RecordFor economic commentary and analysis, go to the Bonddad Blog The Republicans have been busy lately. All of their candidates want to claim the mantle of Reagan. However, the truth of Reagan's record is far more sobering. Reagan never balanced a budget and he sent the country into mammoth amounts of debt. Finally, his tax cuts never even came close to paying for themselves. First -- and most importantly -- Reagan never balanced a budget. In fact, Reagan never came close to balancing a budget. For all of his talk about hating big government, Reagan did a fair amount of solid work in creating a bigger federal government. Here's a graph of the Federal expenditures and receipts for 1981 to 1989. Notice that the receipts scale on the right has a lower scale than the expenditures scale on the left. Also notice that federal expenditures almost doubled under his unique brand of fiscal conservatism. The end result of all of this spending splurge is a massive increase in government debt. Here's a graph of total federal debt outstanding. And here's a chart of the year over year percentage change in total debt outstanding. At least he was consistent. The bottom line is Reagan loved to charge his policies on the national credit card. And those "record tax revenues" weren't that extraordinary either. In fact, his tax cuts never even came close to paying for themselves. Let's compare the increase in Reagan's tax revenues to the periods immediately before and after his presidency. March 1975 - January 1980 Tax Revenues increased from $158.0 billion to $284.2 billion. This is an overall increase of 79%. During this period, the capital gains rate increased from 45% to 50% in about 1977 (I'm eyeballing the chart). Over this period the inflation level increased from 52.7 to 82.7 or an increase of 30%. This makes the overall increase in tax revenues from individuals 49%. November 1982 to July 1990 Tax Revenues increased from $356.0 billion to $598. This is an overall increase of 67%. During this period, the capital gains rate increased from 50% to 18% in the early 1980s. The top marginal rate decreased from 70% to 50% in about 1983. (I'm eyeballing the chart) Over this period the inflation level increased from 98.0 to 130.4 or an increase of 33%. This makes the overall increase in tax revenues from individuals 34%. March 1991 -- March 2001 Tax Revenues increased from $578 billion to $1,296.6. This is an overall increase of 124%. During this period, the capital gains rate decreased from 30% to 20% in the early 1997. The top marginal rate increased from 30% to 40% in the early to mid 1990s. (I'm eyeballing the chart) Over this period the inflation level increased from 135.0 to 176.2 or an increase of 31%. This makes the overall increase in tax revenues from individuals 93%. If the Republican candidates want to claim the mantle of Reagan -- go ahead. It's not that impressive. But let's make sure the whole story gets told, shall we? Bonddad May 9, 2007 - 6:15am
( categories: Miscellany )
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