The Truth Of Reagan's Economic Record


For economic commentary and analysis, go to the Bonddad Blog

The Republicans have been busy lately. All of their candidates want to claim the mantle of Reagan. However, the truth of Reagan's record is far more sobering. Reagan never balanced a budget and he sent the country into mammoth amounts of debt. Finally, his tax cuts never even came close to paying for themselves.

First -- and most importantly -- Reagan never balanced a budget. In fact, Reagan never came close to balancing a budget. For all of his talk about hating big government, Reagan did a fair amount of solid work in creating a bigger federal government.

Here's a graph of the Federal expenditures and receipts for 1981 to 1989. Notice that the receipts scale on the right has a lower scale than the expenditures scale on the left. Also notice that federal expenditures almost doubled under his unique brand of fiscal conservatism.

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The end result of all of this spending splurge is a massive increase in government debt.

Here's a graph of total federal debt outstanding.

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And here's a chart of the year over year percentage change in total debt outstanding. At least he was consistent.

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The bottom line is Reagan loved to charge his policies on the national credit card.

And those "record tax revenues" weren't that extraordinary either. In fact, his tax cuts never even came close to paying for themselves. Let's compare the increase in Reagan's tax revenues to the periods immediately before and after his presidency.

March 1975 - January 1980

Tax Revenues increased from $158.0 billion to $284.2 billion. This is an overall increase of 79%. During this period, the capital gains rate increased from 45% to 50% in about 1977 (I'm eyeballing the chart).

Over this period the inflation level increased from 52.7 to 82.7 or an increase of 30%.

This makes the overall increase in tax revenues from individuals 49%.

November 1982 to July 1990

Tax Revenues increased from $356.0 billion to $598. This is an overall increase of 67%. During this period, the capital gains rate increased from 50% to 18% in the early 1980s. The top marginal rate decreased from 70% to 50% in about 1983. (I'm eyeballing the chart)

Over this period the inflation level increased from 98.0 to 130.4 or an increase of 33%.

This makes the overall increase in tax revenues from individuals 34%.

March 1991 -- March 2001

Tax Revenues increased from $578 billion to $1,296.6. This is an overall increase of 124%. During this period, the capital gains rate decreased from 30% to 20% in the early 1997. The top marginal rate increased from 30% to 40% in the early to mid 1990s. (I'm eyeballing the chart)

Over this period the inflation level increased from 135.0 to 176.2 or an increase of 31%.

This makes the overall increase in tax revenues from individuals 93%.

If the Republican candidates want to claim the mantle of Reagan -- go ahead. It's not that impressive. But let's make sure the whole story gets told, shall we?


Bonddad May 9, 2007 - 6:15am
( categories: Miscellany )

A legacy of his tenure is the concept that "Deficits don't matter." Yet the fact that risky behavior has not yet led to catastrophe is not sufficient proof that it never can. Ask Jon Corzine about that.

Yet I am tempted to believe that Reagan's other ideas were far more harmful. The idealistic laissez affaire view that unfettered markets are unconditionally better than any alternative is one. It led to trade that is full of inequities on both ends. It led to deregulated industries that have frequently grown more expensive or less responsive to consumers as a result ( electrical power comes to mind first.) And he made ethnic hatred and greed the new hip and cool. I understand that this ranges far from the topic, yet it is not until the Reagan legacy is thoroughly discredited that we can stop getting presidents like dubya and deficits like the ones we have now.

mtspace May 9, 2007 - 8:47am

In particular, it seems that the Republicans would do better by talking up Eisenhower than canonizing Reagan.

I've despised the latter since he was governor of California (he helped to demolish a magnificent public education system during his tenure).

Petronius May 10, 2007 - 10:39am

the top marginal tax rate was over 90%, so it's hard even to admit he was in the GOP, let alone admire him.

(Every time McCain says they "need to return to being the party of Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt and Reagan" I imagine Abe & Teddy going tag team all over Ronnie's ass.)

Gordon May 10, 2007 - 12:54pm

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