An appropriate mind game for the beginning of a new year, a new presidency, perhaps even a new era in IR: what are your predictions for the coming two years, what developments are we to witness between now and 2011, what themes and topics will dominate the international headlines, what will be our (America’s) prime concerns?
Imagine you’re a political novelist expected to deliver a spy thriller set in the Middle East in mid 2010, to hit bookstores in the fall of 2011. What do you anticipate the public’s interest to be? Resource wars (oil ”“ a bit trite, isn’t it? ”“ water), new developments in the ”œwar on terror” (although I hope this phrase to no longer exist in 2011), private military contractors gone berserk, Iranian nuclear enrichment, the never-ending quest for peace in Israel/Palestine, the economic rise of the Gulf States, the quagmire the US faces in Afghanistan/Pakistan, the future of Iraq after US withdrawal? Most important, do you think the American public will continue to be interested in developments abroad at all or is the coming recession going to overshadow everything and turn readers’ demands from tales from foreign shores to bread and butter issues at home, is America going to experience an isolationist revival?
Perhaps all this won’t matter as former KGB analyst, Russian professor Igor Panarin predicts a breakup of the US (check out the map!) for June 2011. According to him, Sarah Palin will have a Russian passport, Californians the Yuan as their currency, and Sean Paul will have to return home to San Antonio via immigrations in Ciudad Mexico by then.
Let’s share well-grounded thoughts, estimations, predictions, forecasts, prophecies (no end time scenarios and nothing like the above wishful thinking, please)in an open thread, the more the better!
I’m glad you all enjoy debating Professor Panarin’s pipe dreams, but that was only meant as an amusing side note. What I’m truly interested in is your take on whether the current recession will overshadow interest in the wider Middle East among American fiction readers. Please share your thoughts with me on that one, too!
His analysis fails on one, major critical factor: Deep-South Dixie ain’t gonna be under the thumb of ‘Mescans, no way, no how. How can you believe anything this foolish?
This is a Russian narrative that will play well in Russia because the Russians are all too familiar with the frames. Makes no sense at all to Americans. Not a narrative we can recognize because those are not our frames. Ergo, the probability of Americans going there under any circumstances is extremely low.
The real danger here is that the feckless Dems will come across as wimps, wonks and girlie men (American frames), and they will lose Congress in 2010 and the presidency in 2012, after squandering their political capital trying to be “post-partisan,” which is turning into another way of saying Republican Lite (American narrative, which is the GOP’s dream and the left’s worst nightmare).
I’m not predicting that at this point, but the warning signs are already here, and Obama hasn’t even taken change yet. The familiar narratives and their frames are all in place and the Dems seem determined to fit the mold.
Narratives and the frame out of which they are constructed are structure in neural bindings and related circuitry, so they are powerful molds of thinking and behavior. The Dems are seemingly unaware that they are trapping themselves in a familiar narrative that favors the GOP.
Unless the Dems reframe this national debate to their advantage and the country and world’s advantage, they are going to be toast. So far, the powers that be are still pulling the strings and the Dems are jumping at the money, on one hand, and fear of losing the center, on the other.
Their problem is that do not have a base that they can approach with narratives and frames that appeal. As a result they are left with GOP Lite, attempting to moderate an essentially rightist narrative. But in the end, given the choice between a real Republican and a faux one, the voters will pick the real one. That’s how this narrative plays out.
It seems to me that one of the surest ways out of this current dilemma would be the northeast and west seceding from the union so that we can keep our own tax revenues. I think those two parts of the country can pretty much save our economic houses by jettisoning the money sucking center of the country. I think the Russian makes sense though I agree that the likelihood of the south combining with Mexico is pretty far-fetched.
1) The US will suffer another Civil War and/or breakup into two or more pieces.
2) Those pieces will align themselves with or be absorbed by foreign powers.
I actually view (1) as within the realm of possibility, though not by 2010. It all depends on how desperate things get. Something that Panarin doesn’t seem to appreciate is the local cultural contours of the US. If there were to be some sort of breakup of the US, the Pacific Coast would not be allied with the interior/mountain regions–those are two distinct American sub-cultures (in fact, there are many sub-cultures within them). Same goes for South Carolina and Tennessee joining the same block as Vermont and Mass.–not gonna happen.
(2) is completely ridiculous.
While I don’t think a breakup is a high probability, I do believe that the most likely end-result of it would be similar to the future scenario in Ghost in the Shell: The US splits into the American Empire and the United States of America (remainder). The American Empire is compromised of the traditional southern states (up to Virginia or North Carolina and including most of southern/central Appalachia), plus Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Arizona. Basically, all the big sunbelt, military, and energy states. The rest of the country remains as it is, with separatist movements in some parts of Idaho, Utah, New England, and Alaska.
Not likely, but interesting to think about!
the meme will be – did we overstimulate the economy? We have become addicted to bubbles and without one the panic all sets in. Tax cuts, stimulus, buying debt down, inserting cash into the system, gas back down under $1.60. While it all looks dire and all this aid sounds good, too much of a good thing is not what we need either. So in 12 months we will be talking about inflation coming back and demand being too high.
Has anyone noticed that the S&P is actually UP 25% from November 30, 2008. I think we will also be looking at a 40% to 50% gain on the DOW by year end.
seems to me more likely than Panarin’s…
The Japanese have traditionally had a better fel for the political pulse of America than the Russians–possible because their system of government (especially since WWII) is a closer approximation of the US’s structurally and in its politics.
Digging into the GITS scenario–the creators of the story, Masamune Shirow and Mamoru Oshii, together have a pretty fair feel for politics (especially Oshii). others of their work really delve into politics and law-enforcement. Very interesting stuff (for this Anime fan)…definitely *not* kid-stuff!
-5.75,-4.05
“God gives men a brain and a penis, and only enough blood to run one at a time.” — Robin Williams
The real economy will continue to grind along, taking more and more jobs and homes with it; we’re bankrupt, and the pain is only beginning. As already noted, unless he wises up fast, Obama the Cautious Corporate Centrist will attempt to extend a “post-partisan” hand to the GOP and pull back a bloody stump. How bad things generally get will decide if Palin or Patreous will be president in 2012. The US falling to political pieces is very unlikely in the near term, but ten, twenty years down the road? Yeah. A definite possibility, and a Palin presidency (eek) would accelerate the trend. Assuming we somehow avoid a nuclear war with someone.
It’s not going to happen, but I often think these days the smartest long-term thing for my home state of Washington to do -would- be to succeed, and right now. Oregon and Northern California can come with us, if they like…
http://community.livejournal.com/libertarianism/2501842.html
His idea is pretty much cribbed from an ’80s game called Fortress America, xenophobic cousin to (superior) Axis & Allies.
But since nobody else is responding to your question about the Middle East, I will say the following:
Very few Americans give a rat’s ass about the Israel-Palestinian situation. The only exceptions are the bloodthirsty fundamentalist Christian fanatics that correspond to the bloodthirsty fanatics who rule Israel – and a few Jews, a small fraction of the population (most of the Jews I know are not at all sympathetic to Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians). Any interest in the general public would have to be ginned up by the military-industrial complex and the politicians in their thrall.
I think people are sick to death of the Middle East (I know I am) and unless there is another terrorist attack (which many would suspect to be a false flag operation) most will be happy to ignore it. I object to being labeled an isolationist (since I am very interested in other cultures around the world and favor international cooperation and institutions like the U.N.) but I’d like to see the U.S. military withdrawn from its installations around the world.
Any oil supply disruptions would bring calls for independence instead of intervention in supplier countries.
Of course, there will still be “economic” motivations for “preserving jobs” manufacturing weapons but these tend to be concentrated in red states which lost clout in the last election. Budgetary constraints will reduce military adventurism although maybe I’m being overly optimistic here.
The economic malaise just doesn’t seem to want to go away, and will far and away be the overriding concern in the next five-year period. But how did we arrive at this sorry juncture? Well, it’s been clear to me for decades that the West has been embroiled in a “crisis of confidence” since the time of the first world war. Our old world, rooted in the ideology of Catholicism, really disintegrated then, and perhaps the biggest factor in our crisis of confidence is the idea that there really will be no celestial retribution for any acts committed on Earth. “If God doesn’t exist, everything would be permitted.” Now we have the added discrediting of the latest round of excesses of Homo economicus, which have plunged the world into a crisis which has no clear outcome. As a result liberalism (construed in the wider sense), as such, is in grave jeopardy. One adds to the mix the increasing pervasiveness of the technological state to come up with a bitches’ brew of vitriol. Unless the new template of the liberated individual gains a foothold somehow. For those who have read this far, I believe this involves a shift in the practice of psychology away from its being implcated as an arm of the State. APA condoning of Guantanamo torture, sports psychology, etc. I believe the work of Wilhelm Reich (Mass Psychology of Fascism_, etc.) especially his earlier work before the Orgone Box stuff, can be picked through for nuggets pointing the way forward. The individual must be healed before society can grope toward wholeness.
i don’t think there’s disconnection; ultimately it’s the same subject -and that [singularity] itself will be the center of attention. imho…
we even have a member here named TimeWave0, come to think of it.
…obvious there will be no break up of the U.S. unless corporate America approves it. With Blackwater and the newly formed 20,000 man “internal security force”; the corporatists will be firmly in charge. The last presidential election should have been evidence we are no longer free to peacefully assemble and demonstrate our displeasure with government policies. No, I’m not optimistic about our rights, but fairly confident the country will remain in one physical piece.
IMO this leads directly to the economy. I think it will overshadow everything. There will be 20% unemployment in real numbers; houses will have lost fully 50% of their inflated value and credit for the average American will all but disappear (who can afford 30% interest?). The middle east will slide into the background as China, India, and Pakistan present big problems for America. At best we will turn inward and the average citizen will be even less knowledgeable about the world at large (if that’s possible). We, as a consumerist society, may cease to exist.
the scab that is the Bush Administration, we need to go back to square one and fully investigate 9/11, as opposed to sinking deeper into the quicksand of Asia.
…consumerist society may be the healthiest thing for our country, but, I also don’t believe that would be allowed to happen. I think we’ll start the whole bubble again. Like heroin addicts, we’re addicted to materialism and we’re spreading it to the four corners of the globe. RIP.
…along the lines of counter-proliferation – readership gets the issue and its a heck of a lot easier to orchestrate than a regional conflict between parties they recognize. Options are legion – loss of nuclear surety [tried but true], India-Pakistan issues spilling over on an Iranian axis – could maybe be seen through the double lens of take from AMAN or another instrument of Israeli intelligence cross-decked to the US IC. Certainly the region’s definitely in the throes of re-organizing – major Pakistani concern has got to be attempting to forestall a closer US-Indian relationship, trying to remain the paramount regional partner – given the dynamics they could reasonably be gotten into some truly odd plot-stuff. Pakistan’s hot in wonk world and likely to stay that way for the next couple of years as the focus shifts increasingly to Afghanistan.
Alternatively, there’s the actual conflict in Afghanistan. Next couple of years are likely to see the story change a bit, in that increased force levels and a re-focusing of the mission should help secure the major urban areas (though it ain’t going to look pretty at all) and buy some breathing space to help train up indigenous security forces – provided the corruption can be brought under some semblance of control. Thing is, not so sure it’s a great spy thriller. Int there seems very quotidian to a readership weaned on The Bourne Identity – of course, some of the highest speed, low drag stuff in the military int world is happening there right now, but most readers wouldn’t find it terribly interesting (exotic locales beat good map overlays all to hell in the public eye I think). Dunno – got your book at the top of the pile – I’ll have a read and see if it sparks any more productive musing than this stream of [un]consciousness.
“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel…may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly.” ~ Richard Haass
taking place completely underground in the tunnels, of course the tunnels cris-cross the middle east(earth?), a chase to catch a rogue nuke made and sold by Qadeer Khan
“Go confidently in the direction of your dreams! Live the life you’ve imagined.” -Henry David Thoreau
… for your answers. In general I agree with you that the American public is “sick to death†of the Middle East except for issues that immediately affect them, such as WMDs on the loose (quite hackneyed though – The Sum of All Fears – and since W lying us into war pretty difficult to sell in progressive fiction) or mounting casualties in Afghanistan. In fact, it’s not that I’m lacking plot ideas, it’s just that I fear American minds will be dominated by the economy to the point they blind out on anything else. Perhaps the way to go is to contrive a plot linking the economy to ME developments, something like a Ponzi scheme originating in Saudi Arabia.
And yes, Tina, I always thought the tunnels connecting Gaza with Egypt a cool location.
And Dave thanks for putting my book on the top of your pile. I look forward to getting your take on it.
a fictionalized account of the reality on the ground in the Middle east along with the political machinations in the U.S. among the people who profit from the conflict.
I think you’re on the right track in linking the economy to ME developments. Get fundamental. Go all the way back to the birth of the modern military-industrial complex in the 30s and 40s. Tie it to consumerism.
Oops. Wrong thread. Carry on.
Montana? Wyoming? The Dakotas? Sheesh. How come we only get the crummy parts? I will send no great great great grandsons into the battlefield, or even agree to some economic driven land redistribution, unless we’re assured of a takeover of someplace with year around sunshine guaranteed. The Canadian flag flying over Palm Springs, maybe. Big Sur. Sure. But Montana? Nope. I don’t think so. We already have lots and lots of that kind of terrain. It’s ok. No matter what changes the future may hold in store, (at least in the imagination of this dude) I’m pretty sure most Canadians will agree. You guys can keep the vast open spaces of your northern mid-west with no contest whatsoever. Well, except from some hot headed hoser named Larry, maybe. Whatever.
More than just peak oil, which I believe was hyped before its actual arrival to fuel a speculative bubble, we face at many levels many kinds of resource scarcities.
Island nations are our canaries in the global coalmine….
What small glimpses I had of the south pacific through “white mans literature” as a child suggested the islands were tropical paradises where all you needed automagically grew on trees.
Now it is slowly seeping in that the correct picture is not paradise, but pressure cooker.
The reasons for the impression that everything you needed just grew on trees, was that entire islands were carefully tended and planted gardens / plantations, and the populations were actually balanced on the edge of starvation.
There is even evidence that they imported pigs as _the_ favoured protein source, and then later destroyed every last one… when they realised they were too environmentally damaging to keep.
An interesting view of how people adapt to such change can be seen at…
http://www.powerofcommunity.org/cm/index.php
Most “thriller novel” plots I have seen, (and couldn’t be bothered to read) focus on militaristic competition for resources.
Thats a short term thing. Sure it may buy you 5-10 years. But it cannot last.
I was watching last night a fascinating documentary called “Grass”. No, no, no, not that sort. The sort sheep munch on.
It was a 1924 black&white doco of an Iranian migratory tribes annual migration between grazing areas. The lengths they went to cope with and survive resource scarcity are mind boggling.
But those will be the stories that will stir hearts when resource scarcities really start to bite.
we could have been assigned Idaho too.
*duck*
“The best-informed man is not necessarily the wisest. Indeed there is a danger that precisely in the multiplicity of his knowledge he will lose sight of what is essential.”
- Dietrich Bonhoeffer