Brussels | June 19

UPI - Confidential documents written by the EU team investigating last year's Russian-Georgian war assign much of the blame to Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili.

A majority of EU experts say the Georgian president, and not the Kremlin, ordered the first military strike against two breakaway provinces, according to the documents obtained by German news magazine Der Spiegel. The Georgian offensive into South Ossetia and Abkhazia escalated into a five-day war with Russia that the powerful neighbor won.

That doesn't mean the Kremlin is entirely innocent. A senior member of the EU experts' commission tasked with probing the conflict, Otto Luchterhandt, a German international law expert, argues the Kremlin was legally entitled to counterattack but violated "the principle of proportionality" with its massive intervention in Georgia. Other commission members are also arguing that Russia is to be blamed.

** Der Speigel:EU Probe Creates Burden for Saakashvili

Ian Traynor | Brussels | June 19

The Guardian - European leaders tonight sought to revive the ill-fated Lisbon Treaty reforming the way the EU is run by delivering pledges shoring up Irish independence in the hope of securing a Yes vote in an Irish referendum in October.

But Brian Cowen, the Irish prime minister, told a summit of 27 government chiefs in Brussels that he would not win the referendum, expected on 2 October, unless the "guarantees" were legally enshrined in a new protocol that could cause problems for Gordon Brown and other European leaders by reigniting old feuds over the treaty.

In June last year, the Irish derailed the Lisbon project by rejecting the treaty in a referendum. The rest of the EU has agreed to assure Ireland that the new regime will not affect Irish military neutrality, ­abortion laws, taxation policy and the Irish are also guaranteed a seat in the European Commission.

London | June 7

AP - Britain elected its first extreme-right politician to the European Parliament in results announced Sunday, a development mainstream lawmakers blamed on the recession and a collapse of trust in major political parties. The British National Party won a seat in northern England's Yorkshire and the Humber district — taking one of six seats in Europe's Parliament awarded in the region.

Britain is electing 72 European lawmakers and the far-right BNP, which does not accept nonwhites as members, was expected to win more seats when additional results were announced. The BNP won 10 percent of the vote in the Yorkshire and the Humber district. Projections based on early results showed the party was expected to win 7.5 percent of the vote nationally. Lib Dem FoP @ Daily Kos looks at the reasons why.

Claire Soares & John Lichfield | Paris | June 6

The Independent - Fears that low turnout and gains by far right will be repeated across the EU

The first killer punch of the European election campaign was struck yesterday by the maverick Dutch politician, Geert Wilders, who scooped 17 per cent of the vote and almost a fifth of his country's seats in the European Parliament running on a populist, anti-immigrant, law and order agenda.

The Dutch result, released two days early – before most Europeans had even cast their votes – sent jitters around a continent fearful that a miserably low turnout will help extremists on both the left and right.

Mr Wilders, refused access to Britain as a rabble-rouser earlier this year, has perfected a form of tolerant intolerance with his Freedom Party and its smartly-suited, middle-class, anti-Islamic and "pro-liberal" values. While the Christian Democrats of Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende managed to keep hold of the largest share of the votes (albeit with the loss of two seats and a mere three-point lead), the Freedom Party romped home in second.

The platinum-blond maverick shot to international prominence for branding the Koran a "fascist book" and releasing a film, Fitna, which depicted Islam as inherently violent. "This is fantastic, a great day for the people who crave another Netherlands, another Europe," declared a triumphant Mr Wilders who won four of the 25 seats up fro grabs. Having beaten the Labour party, the other main bloc in the Prime Minister's coalition, into third place, he claimed the government no longer had a mandate. "The cabinet should step down, the sooner the better," he told Dutch television, although analysts said that was wishful thinking.

Amsterdam | June 1

DPA - There was a time when the Dutch were enthusiastic supporters of projects to draw Europe closer together politically.

But in the run-up to the European Parliament elections, one thing is strikingly clear while watching people in an outdoor shopping district on a recent sunny afternoon in Amsterdam. No one is even paying attention to the election billboards.

'I am not going to vote next week,' 27-year old Marieke van der Ven told the German Press Agency dpa.

'Normally, I would vote for the leftist Liberal D'66. But, in the European elections, they joined forces with the rightist Liberal VVD. I think that is absurd. So why should I even bother?'

Van der Ven is no exception, says political communications professor Claes de Vreese, of the University of Amsterdam.

Last month, his University of Amsterdam Centre for Politics and Communication, along with the polling agency TNS NIPO conducted a study that showed 61 per cent of the Dutch support EU membership - but only 24 per cent have confidence in Brussels' institutions.

'The Dutch are afraid the European Union is becoming too large. They fear losing their cultural identity. They are also unhappy with the European Union's functioning.'

Banks securitize their mortgages, sell these structured products to themselves and exchange them to cash on ECB counter.

Luke Harding | Khabarovsk | May 21

The Guardian - Russia and the European Union were today holding a summit intended to improve their battered relationship, amid mutual exasperation and irritation in Moscow at the EU's recent attempts to lure eastern European countries away from Moscow's orbit.

Russia's president, Dmitry Medvedev, was hosting a two-day EU-Russia summit in the far eastern city of Khabarovsk, close to Vladivostok and Russia's Pacific coast. EU leaders, including the European commission president, José Manuel Barroso, arrived in the city this morning.

The summit comes at a time of growing frustration between Brussels and Moscow over a host of issues ranging from energy policy to the war in Georgia. The EU was irritated by Russia's gas war in January with Ukraine and Medvedev's failure to pull Russian troops out of the breakaway Georgian republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

For its part, the Kremlin is annoyed by the EU's attempt earlier this month to improve ties with half a dozen post-Soviet countries. A summit of 33 countries in Prague brought the EU's 27 governments together for the first time with the leaders of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus.

http://www.votewatch.eu/index.php

The second one ever. The previous web site had to be closed because politicians wanted to censor it.

Parliament will move to left.

The predictions will be updated every two weeks until the elections on 4-7 June.

More: http://www.predict09.eu/default/en-us.aspx

M K Bhadrakumar | Apr 27

Asia Times - Last week, the Barack Obama administration made its first major move in the geopolitics of Eurasia with the appointment of Richard Morningstar as the special envoy for Eurasian energy. The brilliant, devastatingly effective diplomat of the Bill Clinton administration is back on his old beat.

Curiously, despite its extensive ties to Big Oil, the George W Bush administration's performance in energy politics reads dismally. Russia's Vladimir Putin outsmarted the United States in the Caspian. Enter Morningstar. He served the Clinton administration as special advisor to the president and secretary of state on the former Soviet Union, special advisor on Caspian basin energy diplomacy and ambassador to the European Union (EU). He was a key figure in pushing through - against great odds - the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which stands out as an enduring achievement for US energy diplomacy in the post-Soviet period.

Moscow should take note that a formidable adversary has re-entered the arena. With a career background in EU affairs and Caspian energy diplomacy, Morningstar's appointment signifies that Washington is going to take a shot at the Nabucco gas pipeline project. Resolute action to get the project going includes lining up funding, securing the necessary gas supplies, beating back Russian countermoves and least of all rallying European support. Nabucco has the potential to rewrite Russia-EU relations and consolidate the US's trans-Atlantic leadership. The 3,300 kilometer-long pipeline from the Caspian via Turkey to Austria would reduce the EU's growing dependence on Russian energy.

Apr 6

BBC - Details of user e-mails and net phone calls will be stored by internet service providers (ISPs) from Monday under an EU directive.

The plans were drawn up in the wake of the London bombings in 2005.

ISPs and telecoms firms have resisted the proposals while some countries in the EU are contesting the directive.

Jim Killock, executive director of the Open Rights Group, said it was a "crazy directive" with potentially dangerous repercussions for citizens.

All ISPs in the European Union will have to store the records for a year. An EU directive which requires telecoms firms to hold on to telephone records for 12 months is already in force.

The data stored does not include the content of e-mails or a recording of a net phone call, but is used to determine connections between individuals.

Jane Merrick | April 5

UK Independent - Tony Blair has emerged as the leading candidate to become the first permanent president of the European Union after Gordon Brown gave his grudging blessing to the plan. The former prime minister has stepped up his campaign for the job, which he wants to use to build a bridge between Europe and the new Obama administration.

His return to the global stage would be a shock to his critics over the Iraq war and dismay many in Europe.

Matthew Hickley

Daily Mail - Britain's naval bases around the world should be put under the control of Brussels, according to a report(PDF) commissioned by the European Union.

It says military facilities in the Falkland Islands, Gibraltar and Cyprus should become part of an EU 'forward presence' to help safeguard Europe's trade routes.

The proposals would also see France forced to put its military bases in Africa and South America under EU control.

They goes so far as to suggest that two aircraft carriers being built for the Royal Navy should become an EU 'capability'.

The idea drew a rebuttal from the Ministry of Defence, which insisted British facilities would remain under British control.

The study was commissioned by the European Parliament's security and defence committee as part of analysis into how the EU should respond to emerging military powers in Asia.

The report calls for ' institutional reforms' within the EU. It concludes: 'The EU member states' military installations - mainly French and British - would provide a formidable asset for the geographical and functional expansion of EU grand strategy.

By Hannes Artens

With leaders like this … Hungary's Ferenc Gyurcsány and the Czech Republic's Mirek Topolanek (current EU president) at the EU Summit on March 19 - since then both have resigned (Source: Süddeutsche Zeitung)

Much has been written on Europe by American columnists these days. Nothing good, so much is obvious. Either American conservatives conjure up the specter of what America will turn into, if they don't put the brakes on President Obama - I wonder how many generations it will take for the Red Scare and the bogeyman of socialism to lose their deterrent effectiveness - or rejoice about it as a doomed cause on the edge of abyss. Distracting the public from the total shipwreck of Reaganomics and the Republican model for society - which actually is what? Proving Edward Gibbon wrong that it can take only two decades to bring an empire down? Indebting the youngest Agonist reader's children's children up to their necks? Selling out a superpower to its future competitor in a street sale called globalization? - they exult in the only good thing about the recession being the demise of God- and spineless Europe.

To be perfectly honest, the EU hasn't given its own people much reason for confidence these days. The G20 summit is hosted by a political zombie, a walking dead soon to have plenty of time to enjoy the "America's Greatest Movies" collection he was recently given by the White House, the heads of government in Eastern Europe are toppling at a speed the originator of the Domino Theory could have never envisioned - even Mirek Topolanek, the current president of the EU Council, is among the victims - Nicolas Sarkozy, well, he does what he's known for, pretending hyper-activism and emitting hot air like a fast breeder producing more futile, eh fissile than he consumes, and last but not least Silvio Berlusconi, who, well, also does what he's known for, 24/7 reinventing himself and his party - Forza Italia was yesterday, today it's Il Popolo della Liberta - and, at 72, entertaining Italy and the world with tales about his sex life. Hardly the leadership one would wish for when facing the worst economic contraction since World War II.

A good friend of mine asked me tonight what I thought would happen in the coming months re: the dollar and euro. So, considering this is probably the main site that helps inform and form my opinions I suggested I ask here. I'll be sending him this link by the way, so Agonistas, give it your best shot. Living on an island that is 37sq miles and divided between two nations, one which uses the euro, the other primarily the dollar, it has a big effect on many things here.

We would love to hear what you think. Or is it all just such a mess and unpredictable right now?

Caribdude

Robert Marquand | Paris | Feb 27

CSM - How quickly the European Union will or will not rally to help its most economically crippled new states in the East is becoming a major political test for the Continent.

Crisis summits will be held this weekend in Brussels to confront the problem, which is escalating as Western banking capital flees the once red-hot economies of the former Soviet states. But the problems may quickly move West.

“The future of Europe may be unfolding in the East,” intoned Le Monde this week. “Western Europe cannot let Eastern Europe fall apart.”

Concern is mounting over the specter of larger political instability, as well as the worries that a prolonged crisis could undercut the East’s emerging middle class. The Baltic states and Hungary, whose liberal Irish-like trade and growth models have collapsed (Latvia went belly up this week) have been hit harder than the Czech Republic and Slovakia, which had taken slower growth approaches. Poland and Romania are more protected by their size, economists say, though Poland’s zloty has lost half its value against the euro in recent months.

This week, the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development warned that the crisis “is threatening to throw nearly 20 years of economic reform into reverse.”

Ingrid Melander | Brussels | Feb 26

Reyters - The United States must not allow its Bagram military base in Afghanistan to become a new Guantanamo Bay if it wants European Union help to close the prison on Cuba, a confidential EU policy document says.

In one of his first acts in office, President Barack Obama ordered the closure within one year of Guantanamo Bay, where about 245 people are held and which has been widely viewed as a stain on the U.S. human rights record.

But Obama has yet to decide what to do about the jail at Bagram, where more than 600 prisoners are held, or whether to continue work on a $60 million prison complex there.

"The Guantanamo camp cannot simply be transferred somewhere else," said the document obtained by Reuters.

"It would not be in conformity with EU fundamental rights policies to simply transfer Guantanamo elsewhere (i.e. in Bagram) without solving the underlying question of the detention of terror suspects for indefinite time and without trial."

The Obama administration said last week it would not deviate from the Bush administration's position that detainees held at Bagram have no right to sue in U.S. courts.

The confidential paper said EU help over Guantanamo -- meaning agreement to accept discharged prisoners who could not be sent home for fear of torture -- would depend on Washington's overall anti-terrorism policies, including assurances that Bagram or other camps would not become new Guantanamos.

Jamie Doward, Toby Helm, and Tom Kington | Rome | February 1

As industrial unrest at foreign-owned companies refusing to hire British workers spreads, it has emerged the government was told in 2004 that EU laws were being used to prevent local people taking up UK jobs

Guardian Online -The government was warned five years ago that European laws governing the employment of foreign workers in the UK would result in the current industrial unrest sweeping the country.

The disruption has come back to haunt the prime minister, Gordon Brown, who in 2007 - in his first speech to the Labour party as its leader - promised to bring in "British jobs for British workers".

Jon Cruddas, the Labour MP for Dagenham, said there was a real risk that "prestige projects", such as the 2012 Olympics, would be hit by similar protests unless ministers acted. The former Labour minister Frank Field last night called on Brown to make an emergency statement to parliament tomorrow. Field wants a new law to compel companies operating in the UK to offer contracts to domestic workers first. "We have got to get ahead of this debate rather than react to it," Field said. "Unless we do, we are supplying oxygen to the BNP."
 

See earlier story: Mediators called in as wildcat strikes spread across UK

Ian Traynor/Brussels & Valur Gunnarsson/Reykjavik | Jan 30

The Guardian - Iceland will be put on a fast track to joining the European Union to rescue the small Arctic state from financial collapse amid rising expectations that it will apply for membership within months, senior policy-makers in Brussels and Reykjavik have told the Guardian.

The European commission is preparing itself for a membership bid, depending on the outcome of a snap general election expected in May. An application would be viewed very favourably in Brussels and the negotiations, which normally take many years, would be fast-forwarded to make Iceland the EU's 29th member in record time, probably in 2011.

Jan 20

BBC - Russia's Gazprom company has said it will resume gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine at 1000 local time (0700 GMT), ending weeks of disruption.

The announcement was made by Sergei Kupriyanov, the firm's top spokesman.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko earlier said she had witnessed the gas starting to flow again at 0100 GMT.

Moscow | Jan 16

AFP - Ukraine prepared Friday to host a summit of eastern European chiefs of state ahead of new talks on its gas war with Moscow, as Europe batted aside a Kremlin proposal for a summit in Moscow to resolve a feud that has left millions of Europeans freezing.

Ukraine would hold a summit of six eastern European presidents in Kiev on Friday for talks on its gas war with Russia, the Ukrainian presidential spokesman told AFP on Thursday.

President Viktor Yushchenko was expecting "his five counterparts from eastern Europe, including Poland's Lech Kaczynski and Lithuania's Valdas Adamkus who had confirmed their participation," Larisa Mudrak told AFP.

The European Union presidency, chaired by the Czech Republic, said EU member states agreed that the gas row between Russia and Ukraine will have "significant" economic and political consequences for both nations.

By Hannes Artens

(Source: BBC)

Update: internationalization of the conflict, US gets involved:
According to Austrian Der Standard, Russia's motives might have to do with taking over the Ukrainian Naftogaz and thus the transit pipeline system after bringing the Ukrainian govt. to its knees with damage suits. Ukrainian politicians, even Timoshenko, cry foul. On the other hand, Russian Iswestija just made a memorandum of understanding between SecState Condoleeza Rice and her Ukrainian counterpart, Wladimir Orgysko from December public, in which US companies are held out the prospect to modernize the Ukrainian pipeline system in exchange for shares in Naftogaz.

For more than a week now no natural gas is flowing from Russia west via Ukraine. In several eastern European countries, who obtain up to 90 percent of their gas supply from Russian energy giant Gazprom, strategic reserves have reached rock bottom, and hundreds of thousands of consumers are forced to sit out the political row between Moscow and Kiev in increasingly freezing premises (see map). On Tuesday a deal brokered by the EU over the weekend failed; now Brussels is threatening both sides with legal action.

But even if billions-of-Euros litigations will force Gazprom and Naftogaz Ukrainy, the company in charge of the transit pipelines, to eventually yield, the triangular conflict between Brussels, Moscow and Kiev will be far from solved. The dispute over gas prices and transit has shifted from a merely economic to a political level. With both sides playing with loaded chips and digging their heels in - and Europe being caught between two stools - this conflict threatens to have wide-spread impacts and to escalate to an ultimate showdown between strongmen in the Kremlin and the hopelessly divided leadership in Kiev. What is at stake is not only Europe's energy supply, but also the EU's relations with Russia and Ukraine, and the political survival of the Ukrainian government.

Sabina Zawadzki & Dmitry Zhdannikov | Kiev/Moscow | Jan 11

WaPo/Reuters - Ukraine, Russia and the EU struck an agreement on Sunday that should enable the resumption of Russian supplies via Ukraine to Europe, large parts of which have been plunged into a mid-winter energy crisis.

But it was likely to be Tuesday at the earliest before the gas reaches Europe, where many factories have closed and thousands of households have shivered in sub-zero temperatures after a pricing row between Moscow and Kiev choked off supplies.

The agreement signed on Sunday is for international teams of monitors to deploy to pumping stations along the route of gas pipelines through Russia and Ukraine to Europe -- a condition set by Moscow to start pumping gas again.

Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom said in a statement the firm was waiting to receive a faxed copy of the agreement, signed in the early hours of Sunday in the Ukrainian capital, before letting monitors start work.

Once they are in place, the gas taps will be re-opened but it is likely to be a further 36 hours before the fuel reaches customers in Europe because of the time it will take for pressure to build up in the pipeline network.

Ian Traynor | Prague | Jan 9

The Guardian - • Moscow accepts European monitors on Kiev pipeline
• Freezing Balkans face catastrophe if pact fails

European leaders announced a breakthrough deal with Moscow last night that could see Siberian gas flowing to the households and heating systems of Europe. But hundreds of thousands of families across the Balkans and central Europe faced a freezing weekend without heating amid uncertainty over whether the deal settling the dispute between Russia and Ukraine would stick.

Sofia, Bulgaria | Dec 31

CSM - This spring, after Bulgaria recalled Meglena Plugchieva from her ambassadorship in Berlin to clean up widespread corruption and misuse of European Union funds, she warned fellow ministers they must act to prevent the loss of massive funding from Brussels.

But Ms. Plugchieva also vowed to stand up to Western criticism that singles out her nation's ills. "Bulgaria is not the cradle of corruption," she said. "Germany also has its corruption-related scandals."

The "double standard" defense, though, wasn't enough to deter a stinging financial slap delivered last month by a European Commission angry after millions of euros in development assistance had been siphoned off and a string of high-profile corruption and murder investigations resulted in no convictions.

Bulgaria's case was putting the credibility of EU enlargement at stake: Brussels needed to send a message to those arguing against further expansion and to candidates banging on the door, including Croatia, Serbia, Albania, and Turkey. Just last month, EU officials warned Croatia that its failure to crack down on organized crime and corruption jeopardizes its chance to join the EU next year.