Edward Wong | Beijing | February 9

NYT - The sentencing of an outspoken literary editor to five years in prison for subversion showed that the Chinese government will not relent in its ongoing crackdown against critics and dissidents, supporters of the editor said Tuesday.

The editor, Tan Zuoren, was sentenced Tuesday morning by a court in Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan Province, for criticizing the Chinese Communist Party by writing and protesting recently against the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989, when soldiers killed hundreds and perhaps thousands of civilians.

But Mr. Tan’s supporters said he had another black mark against him — he was assembling an independent report on the thousands of children killed when schools collapsed across Sichuan and nearby provinces during a devastating earthquake in May 2008.

BBC: China quake activist sentenced on subversion charges

February 9

BBC - China has closed down what is believed to be the country's biggest training website for hackers, state media has reported. They say the site, Black Hawk Safety Net, gave lessons in hacking and sold downloads of malicious software.

The hacker training operation openly recruited thousands of members online and provided them with cyber attack lessons and Trojan software, the China Daily and the Wuhan Evening News said.

Black Hawk Safety Net recruited more than 12,000 paying subscribers and collected more than seven million yuan ($1m: £650,000) in membership fees, while another 170,000 people had signed up for free membership.
 

China Daily: 'Biggest hacker training site shut down'

From tonight's Nelson Report:

SUMMARY: preceding the President's talk to US business persons about the pressing need for China to allow the RMB to be revalued, Treasury Secretary Geithner called his Chinese counterpart, Wang Qishen.

Content of the call? Two versions: from the US, Geithner warned Wang that patience here has expired, and that if China does not launch a solid move toward rebalancing by the end of March, Obama will authorize Treasury to "cite" the PRC for currency manipulation in the twice-annual report to Congress, first due in April.

Chinese version: Wang told Geithner where he could put it, and seemingly threatened a pullback on T-bill purchases, and retaliation on US exports to China.

Discussion, below.

More after the jump.

CBC/AP | January 30

CBC - China's defence ministry said Saturday it would suspend military exchanges with the United States and impose sanctions on companies selling weaponry to Taiwan over Washington's planned $6.4-billion US arms deal with the island.

China took a similar step in 2008 after the former Bush administration announced a multibillion-dollar arms sale to Taiwan — the most sensitive issue in U.S.-China relations.

Beijing claims the self-governing Taiwan as its own territory, while the United States is Taiwan's most important ally and largest arms supplier.

The United States does not recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation, but the U.S. government says it's bound by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to ensure the island is capable of responding to Chinese threats. China has more than 1,000 ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan.

Data:

So, let's take Scotjen's data here about China vs. US R&D spending in 2009 and add to it the following information:

US year-on-year (yoy) R&D increases (source (.pdf warning))
China yoy R&D increases and recent annual expenditure (source 1, source 2.)

Now we'll construct low, medium, and high scenarios for each country. In the data below, the numbers represent low/medium/high estimates for each parameter:

US yoy increase: 1%/3%/5%
US investment (2009, billions): 400/400/400

China yoy increase: 10%/17%/24%
China investment (2008 or 2009, billions): 30/50/67

Model:

Now we apply a basic calculation used to figure out annual interest to see what a X% year-on-year increase in investment will do in all the scenarios above. The formula applied is I(t) = I(0) * (1 + yoy)^t. I(t) is the annual investment in year t, I(0) is the investment in 2009, yoy is the year-on-year % increase rate, and t is the number of years I'm projecting out. In this case, I am projecting out to 2020 and, since my starting numbers are from 2009, t = 11. As an example, US investment in 2020 in the medium scenario is calculated as I(11) = 400 * (1 + 0.03)^11 = 554.

Results (billions $):

US investment in 2020: 446/554/684
China investment in 2020: 86/281/714

Only the most optimistic assumptions place China ahead of the US in 2020, and I doubt that China can sustain annual increases of 24% in R&D for 11 years. However, the medium scenario is based on more realistic data. My source above for the Chinese "medium" yoy growth rate states that it has been 17% since 1995, so this may be a safe number going forward. This means that, by 2020, China will be investing about half as much in R&D as the US. The two numbers will only come close if the US seriously under-invests and China is able to sustain a long period of enormous growth in R&D investment. And note that this is all barring any major economic disruptions or breakthroughs in either country, though I would guess that a big change in one country (say, a huge crash in the US) would heavily affect the other.

There is no doubt that China is gaining on the United States in R&D. And there is no doubt that they have a ways to go. But, what Ian discusses is very, very true. And the day will more than likely come, too.

However, Ian misses on huge hurdle, or obstacle that the United States is not overcoming when it comes to scientific R&D: religion. Not only has religion polluted our politics, but any time science tries to do something that runs counter to a strict Abrahamic moral code, it gets pilloried. I doubt, in our current anti-rational, anti-scientific, anti-intellectual and anti-Enlightenment environment that it will change.

Beijing / Washington | January 22

BBC - China has denounced US criticism of its internet controls, saying it could harm ties between the two countries.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called on Thursday for China to lift restrictions on the internet.

Yangon, Myanmar | January 18

RFI - The 64-year-old opposition leader was ordered in August to spend another 18 months in detention after being convicted over an incident in which a US man swam to her house. A lower court rejected an initial appeal in October.

Monday's hearing at the top Yangon court, where both sides gave arguments, lasted more than three hours, according to Suu Kyi's main lawyer Kyi Win. He said a decision was expected within a month.

Howard LaFranchi | Washington | Jan 16

CSM - President Obama may have moved his foot to the accelerator regarding sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program. But a skeptical China is countering his shift by applying the brakes.

World powers meet Saturday in New York to consider a new round of economic sanctions on Iran over its continuing pursuit of nuclear technology – a process Western countries believe is aimed at producing a nuclear weapon. But China is signaling its dim view of sanctions by announcing it will send a low-level representative to the meeting. That makes prospects for action by the United Nations Security Council any time soon appear weak at best.

Mr. Obama recently saw his deadline come and go for Iran to respond positively by the end of 2009 to calls for talks on its nuclear developments.

Saturday’s meeting is a result of Iran’s silence on negotiations – with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton saying recently that the weekend discussion would take up “the kind and degree of sanctions we should be exploring.”

UPDATE Jan 17: China balks at Iran sanctions

Razak Ahmad and Royce Cheah | Kuala Lumpur | Jan 15

Reuters -
Police stepped up security after the United States Embassy in Malaysia warned on Friday that criminal and terrorist groups were planning attacks against foreigners in the Borneo island state of Sabah.

A "warden notice" posted on the embassy's website, dated Friday, said resorts located in isolated areas of eastern Sabah, a state bordering the southern Philippines, were of "present concern".

It identified areas of eastern Sabah including Semporna and the islands of Mabul and Sipadan, as well as travel to and from the area.

The warning said there were indications criminal and terrorist groups "are planning or intend acts violence against foreigners", notwithstanding the Malaysian government's ability to detect and prevent such attacks.

"Please avoid or use extreme caution in connection with any travel in these areas or locations," it said.

Big news out of China the last 48 hours. Chris Nelson has some analysis worth pondering, in full:

GOOGLE TELLS CHINA "NO"...but it's the tip of the iceberg...
THE REAL STORY...rising business revolt against China tactics
USG (OBAMA) HAND BEING FORCED? BUT TO DO WHAT?
'PERSPECTIVE' Daily Beast's big leak of FBI report on China

SUMMARY: the big buzz today is Google telling China it isn't going to play its dirty games anymore...and that's big enough, given the accompanying revelation of Chinese penetration of 34 more US companies.

The story or problem in general has long been well known: the USG, including Congress, the FBI, DOD et al have been warning, sometimes in public, about Chinese cyber-spy attacks for much of the past decade.

And for sure industrial and strategic espionage is an art going back to ancient times, practiced to the max by most US allies (and doubtless many US companies) hence its prominent position in WTO rules and negotiations.

But where in the past some countries (we name no names) have stolen just about anything not nailed down, with the rise of computers and the Internet...and using its domestic market allure as leverage...the Chinese are now able to not just steal the nails, but to try and make you sell them the nail machine, and the hammer.

That's the strategic threat now being publicly revealed in agonizing detail.

With today's "leak" of the classified FBI report alleging official Chinese military and intelligence sponsorship of cyber war on the US (Gerald Posner's big scoop on the Daily Beast website...see in full, below) President Obama would seem forced to react in a far more aggressive and public way than seemingly pro-forma speeches at the JCCT, S&ED and other fora.

(You might wonder if the FBI leak was in fact in hopes of forcing Obama's hand...although some analysts, like the FT's Dave Pilling, suggest that Obama already has "sent China a message" via last week's Taiwan arms sale announcement. Even if not true, it may have that utility?)

Regardless, it takes no genius to predict Congress will go ballistic over the Google, Daily Beast and coming revelations...and Capitol Hill was already very worried, witness the annual China Economic & Security Commission report we've frequently noted, and various hearings cited in the Bloomberg story today (details, below).

NSC Senior Director for Asia Jeff Bader has stayed in town to help coordinate what now looks like a metastasizing situation, sources say...he had been scheduled to help Sec St Clinton sooth the US-Japan alliance waters in Hawaii, then head out to Australia and beyond.

So pending what Congress demands, and Obama directs be done (including what can be done!?) the real story...the "news"...is that Google becomes the first major international company to reach its individual limit on how much Chinese abuse it will endure before it chokes, and to announce that allegedly protecting "access" to the China market isn't worth it.

Google thus puts high profile teeth onto the growing realization of the international business community, not limited to the US, Japan, EC and other major trading partners, that China's predatory practices are simply unsustainable...and must somehow be made so.

See Nelson Report 12/16 and 12/17 noting the rising tide of anger, culminating (back then) in the extraordinary, unprecedented US and international business "group letter" to President Hu Jintao, protesting China's new, overtly predatory policies which have the effect of forcibly institutionalizing major IPR theft.

Bloomberg today picks up that thread, details, below.

Much more after the jump.

San Francisco | January 12

AP -
Google Inc. said Tuesday it might end its operations in China after it discovered that the e-mail accounts of human rights activists had been breached.

The company disclosed in a blog post that it had detected a "highly sophisticated and targeted attack on our corporate infrastructure originating from China." Further investigation revealed that "a primary goal of the attackers was accessing the Gmail accounts of Chinese human rights activists," Google's post said.

Google did not specifically accuse the Chinese government. But the company added that it is "no longer willing to continue censoring our results" on its Chinese search engine, as the government requires. Google says the decision could force it to shut down its Chinese site and its offices in the country.

CN - A Chinese graduate's record-setting $8,888,888 donation to his school at Yale University has stirred wide debate at home. While some say it's up to Zhang Lei to do as he likes, others question why he didn't donate to his alma mater in Beijing.

Yale President Richard Levin and School of Management (SOM) Dean Sharon M. Oster were in Beijing last week with Zhang when he announced his donation. They were taking part in a panel discussion called "Investing in the Middle Kingdom". cont @ link.

Jan 11

BBC - In some provinces, 130 boys are born for each 100 girls

More than 24 million Chinese men of marrying age could find themselves without spouses by 2020, says the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

The gender imbalance among newborns is the most serious demographic problem for the country's population of 1.3 billion, says the academy.

It cites sex-specific abortions as a major factor, due to China's traditional bias towards male children.

The academy says gender selection abortions are "extremely common".

This is especially true in rural areas, and ultra-sound scans, first introduced in the late 1980s, have increased the practice.

No, not the city in New Mexico, but the Portuguese conqueror of Goa and Malacca: Affonse da Alboquerque, to be precise.

Needless to say, I've been a bit pre-occupied the last several days, head buried in a bunch of 19th century accounts of travelers running amok--now there is a word with one hell of an etymology, but you'll have to wait for the book for that story--up and down the Malay Peninsula. And then, there is this guy Alboquerque, or Albuquerque for you spelling Nazis out there.

He was a real piece of work.

In a nutshell, Alboquerque was ordered by the King of Portugal to capture Aden, at the mouth of the Red Sea. The strategic rationale was pretty solid: cut off Moorish/Egyptian shipping of spices in the Red Sea and thus cut Venice--who shipped all the pepper and cinnamon and cloves and nutmeg from Alexandria, into the Mediterranean--out of the spice trade altogether. Trade was equally as cutthroat then as it is now.

Affonso was on his way to do his duty by the king when a report came in that the Sultan of Malacca had razed the Portuguese warehouse in Malacca and taken 20 Portuguese hostage, including Ruy de Araujo, it's commander, or perhaps in modern parlance: the consul general.

More after the jump.

Not Mr Clean, He’s Mr Bean – Sri Lanka Chooses a President

Upali the driver is confused. He is feeling like the child of a broken marriage, torn between two warring parents. He does not have much in the way of material comforts but he is proud to be a citizen of Sri Lanka and secure in his sense of Buddhist Sinhala identity. He feels no acrimony for those of other ethnic groups or religions, although he mocks the pretensions of some who go abroad to work and come back speaking English or Arabic. He is a poor man, but he is comfortable with what he is. Without triumphalism he rejoices that his country now appears to be at peace. A national flag flies above his corrugated iron roof. In his humble but neat living room two portraits are equally honoured – President Mahinda Rajapaksa and General Sarath Fonseka. For Upali, these two men were the saviours of his motherland. Together they ended the thirty-year reign of terror of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.

Upali does not quite know how to cope with the news that his two heroes seem to have become enemies.

Todd Woody | Jan 8

LA Times - The firm will provide technology and assistance in setting up a series of solar farms for China, in the nation's first big foray into solar thermal power production.

ESolar Inc. of Pasadena signed an agreement Friday to build a series of solar thermal power plants in China with a total capacity of 2,000 megawatts, in one of the largest renewable energy deals of its kind.

Coming four months after an Arizona company, First Solar, secured a contract to build an equally large photovoltaic power plant in China, the eSolar deal signals China's emergence as a major market for renewable energy.

"They're moving very fast, much faster than the state and U.S. governments are moving," said Bill Gross, eSolar's chairman and the founder of Idealab.

Under the agreement, eSolar will provide China Shandong Penglai Electric Power Equipment Manufacturing Co. the technology and expertise to build solar "power tower" plants over the next decade. Those solar farms would generate a total of 2,000 megawatts of electricity; at peak output that would be equivalent to a large nuclear power plant. The terms of the agreement were not disclosed.

Abuja | Jan 9

AFP - China's Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi held talks with Nigerian officials Friday on oil exports to energy-hungry Beijing during a tour of Africa.

"Specific issues of interest to China include ...increased investment in transmissional power generation, export of oil and non-oil products to China by Nigeria," said a statement from Nigeria's foreign ministry.

China's state oil giant CNOOC last year made an offer to buy six billion barrels of oil from Nigeria, but the bid was turned down.

Nigeria was for years Africa's largest oil exporter but it has been caught up recently by Angola.

The six billion barrels of oil CNOOC is seeking to buy, is equivalent to one in every six barrels of the proven reserves in Nigeria.

The bids pitch China into competition with western oil giants including Shell, Chevron, Total and ExxonMobil which partially or wholly control and operate in Nigeria.

China has aggressively stepped up trade and economic ties with the resource-rich Africa in recent years, prompting critics to accuse it of taking a "neo-colonialist" attitude.

In November, at a meeting of China-Africa leaders in Egypt, Beijing pledged 10 billion dollars in concessional loans to African countries.

Beijing | Jan 8

AFP - China's defence ministry warned on Friday that US approval for sales of upgraded missile equipment to Taiwan "severely" undermined trust between the US and Chinese militaries, Xinhua reported.

"We urge the United States to respect China's core interests," the state news agency quoted spokesman Huang Xueping as saying.

"The US side clings obstinately to the Bush administration's plan of arms sales to Taiwan, which severely undermines the mutual trust between the two militaries.

"It also brings a severe obstacle to the improvement and development of China-US military ties," Huang said. "We reserve the right of taking further actions."

His comments came after a US official in Taipei said the US Defense Department had approved the sale of Patriot missile equipment to Taiwan, part of a package passed by Congress more than a year ago.

"The US Defense Department awarded Lockheed Martin Corp the contract to provide Patriot missile defence systems to Taiwan as part of a big arms deal approved by Congress in 2008," said the spokesman with the American Institute, the US de facto embassy in Taipei.

This is really terrible. Of all the countries I visited in South East Asia, the one that most impressed me was Malaysia. (Toba was magical, but on the whole, Malaysia was just more impressive.) So news of firebombings at Christian churches saddens me. It was the multi-cultural mixing up and reshuffling of life in Malaysia that was/is one of its most compelling features. I don't think this development turns into a crisis, but with the global economy in such straits it comes as no surprise that even in a place like Malaysia political religion becomes a weapon. And that's sad.

John McLean | Manila | Jan 8

CSM -

A government-appointed special commission set out Thursday on an urgent mission: to supervise the disbandment of private armies long maintained by Philippine politicians in time for May elections, and to convince the public it is sincere in its efforts.

President Gloria Arroyo established the group after a massacre of 57 people in southern Maguindanao Province last November that was linked to one such militia.

The militia was run by the Ampatuan political clan, who were at the time members of Ms. Arroyo's ruling coalition. The Ampatuans have since been expelled. The authorities have accused the family of committing the murders in November to prevent a rival politician from running for governor of the province against them. The principal accused, a mayor named Andal Ampatuan Jr., pleaded not guilty in court Tuesday to multiple charges of murder.

Philippines Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzales says there are 132 private militias in the country with a combined strength of 10,000 men that politicians use to intimidate rivals and voters.

But critics worry that only private armies belonging to opposition politicians will be disbanded, especially since the governing party’ s candidate to replace Ms. Arroyo in May is trailing three opposition candidates in the opinion polls.

Frankfurt | Jan 8

AFP - China has surpassed Germany as the world's leading exporter, trade figures released on Friday by the German national statistics office showed.

In the 11 months from January to November, Chinese exports were worth a total of 1.07 trillion dollars, while German data showed that exports from Europe's biggest economy amounted to 734.6 billion euros, or 1.05 trillion dollars.

Kuala Lumpur | January 8

BBC - Three churches have been attacked in Malaysia's capital Kuala Lumpur, ahead of planned protests by Muslim groups.

The administrative offices of one church were destroyed by a firebomb attack and one of the other two churches attacked was slightly damaged.

Tom Lubbock | Jan 5

The Independent -

An exhibition of naturally sculpted rocks from China's Qing Dynasty makes for the most mysterious show in Britain..

What would you call it, if you had to call it something? An especially unruly, indeed, a raving, cabbage? A storm-riven sky, baroque clouds rolling with thunder? Or simply an explosion, with an upthrusting blast beneath, and an outburst spreading above? This object is about half-a-metre high, and it's made of black Lingbi stone, though "made of" may not be quite the right phrase. It's supported on a smooth wooden base, which has a bubbly surface, and five neat feet. What on earth is it?

You don't see that many of them in Western galleries, but their generic name is scholars' rocks, or sometimes viewing stones. They come from China and they may be from the 17th century or later. The idea is that they're natural rocks, of a particular quality, acquired by members of the intelligentsia, to be displayed on tables, for purposes that are enigmatic. Recently, they have started to be collected in the West. The British Museum has one – only one – and it's among the eight now showing in a small exhibition at the Henry Moore Institute in Leeds: Objects of Contemplation – Natural Sculptures from the Qing Dynasty. It's the most mysterious show I've seen in months.

Natural sculptures? They're all grouped together under the same glass box, like zoo or circus animals, bits of found nature on plinths. Some of them are stones with a wriggling, jagged, puckered texture. Some have more fluid bodies. Some of these so-called rocks are pieces of wood. One looks like a richly veined pebble, for example, but is actually petrified wood. Two were clearly branches. But whichever, the relationship between nature and sculpture – and between rocks and their bases – is complicated.

David Gosset | Jan 5

Asia Times - The ancient board game known in the West as go, in China as weiqi, offers invaluable insights into the philosophies that drive China's re-emergence as a global power. Were Westerners to stop lecturing Beijing long enough to familiarize themselves with the Tao of weiqi, they would find the key to the paradoxes of this civilization.