Michael Moran | Nov 26

Council on Foreign Relations - If the Bush administration intended to lower expectations ahead of the Middle East peace conference it is hosting in Annapolis on November 27, the effort has been a resounding success. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spent weeks shuttling back and forth to the region, and at times sounded decidedly pessimistic about prospects for progress. Then, on November 20, the administration announced it had invited over forty nations to attend.

In spite of an upbeat assessment (video) from David Welch, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, the ground looks anything but fertile. Prodded by Rice, the primary diplomatic actors -- Israel and the Palestinian Authority -- spent weeks in a fruitless effort (Ynet) to agree to a joint declaration on a "two-state solution" that Washington hoped would form the foundation of the conference. In the latest twist, rhetorical outrage swept the Arab world when Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert insisted the Palestinian side accept the notion of Israel as a Jewish state, as opposed to a multicultural one, as a precondition to any grand bargain (BBC).

** Ode to Condi
** Broken Peace Process
** Annapolis: A View From the Middle East
** Haniyeh: Annapolis deal won't be binding
** Tension rises as Hamas threatens fresh bloodshed

Earlier post: Expectations low for U.S.-Mideast peace talks

Team Agonist

Nov 11

Rights Suspended in Pakistan - Restrictions in the state of emergency declared by President Gen. Pervez Musharraf include: protection of life and liberty; property rights; media coverage of militant activity; and the right to free movement, public assembly, free speech and equal legal protection.

All is well tho as Bush defends
and praises Musharraf , even as reports come out saying the Pakistani military can now try civilians(retroactive to Jan 2003) and reporters are kicked out of the country.

As for Bhutto's intentions, questions arise:

** Bhutto’s Persona Raises Distrust, as Well as Hope
** Bhutto speech broadcast on Pakistani TV

For all the talk about needing emergency rule to combat extremism and terrorism there has been no huge push to free Swat Valley or new initiatives to fight the tribes or Taliban.

Musharraf calls for elections before Jan 9, but doesn't say when emergency rule will be lifted. Opponents note it will be hard to campaign for those in jail and with rules against congregating.

previous updates after the jump and more articles in comments

The Qandil mountains, a vast mountain range that straddles Iraq, Turkey and Iran.

Please check comments for current articles and events

Steven Mufson & Robin Wright | October 29

WaPo - Oil Market Could Help It Weather U.S. Sanctions

Confronted by mounting U.S. and U.N. pressure, Iran has been steadily shifting its trade from West to East and, with the benefit of record high oil prices, is likely to be able to withstand the new U.S. sanctions, according to U.S., European and Iranian analysts.

Originally posted August 22

From Slashdot, (hat tip MediaGirl):

rev_media writes to tell us that CNN has a few updates to the Real ID act currently facing legislators. The Real ID acts mandates all states to begin issuing federal IDs to all citizens by 2008. Costs could be as much at $14 billion, but only 40 million are currently allocated. Several states have passed legislation expressly forbidding participation in the program, while others seem to be all for it. The IDs will be required for access to all federal areas including flights, state parks and federal buildings. People in states refusing to comply will need to show passports even for domestic flights.

So yeah. Internal passports (along with exit visas) are the very mark of the beast. At the point where you have to show internal papers you are no longer living in the land of the free.

I find this all very interesting because there are majorities for universal healthcare and for abortion on demand, and have been for ages - yet there has been no action on either of these things. There is a majority for getting out of Iraq yet every nominee who stands a chance of being the President with the exception of Richardson won't rule out "residual forces" - just as American legislators won't do what the majority wants, yet there seems to be this bipartisan consensus for spying on Americans (there was no public outcry for the FISA changes); for torture; for ending habeas corpus; and for internal passports and a computer system which will tell you if you can work or not and which you won't be able to fully appeal the damages of false positives to the court system (this restriction of the courts right to try cases is becoming more and more common.)

The only conclusion one can come to anymore is that the US is no longer a functioning democracy. The elites in the country are doing what they want to do no matter what the majority opinion. If the opinion is far too far against them, well, they will use propaganda (the 70% of Americans who believed Iraq was behind 9/11) and they expect (indeed, they know from repeated experience) that the media will propagate their propaganda and not challenge it. Indeed, when 5 media conglomerates control about 80% of all media, it would be surprising if it were otherwise.

More After the Jump

Ron Moreau & Michael Hirsh | Oct 29 Issue

Newsweek - Islamic militants have spread beyond their tribal bases, and have the run of an unstable, nuclear-armed nation.

Today no other country on earth is arguably more dangerous than Pakistan. It has everything Osama bin Laden could ask for: political instability, a trusted network of radical Islamists, an abundance of angry young anti-Western recruits, secluded training areas, access to state-of-the-art electronic technology, regular air service to the West and security services that don't always do what they're supposed to do. (Unlike in Iraq or Afghanistan, there also aren't thousands of American troops hunting down would-be terrorists.) Then there's the country's large and growing nuclear program. "If you were to look around the world for where Al Qaeda is going to find its bomb, it's right in their backyard," says Bruce Riedel, the former senior director for South Asia on the National Security Council.

F William Engdahl | Oct 16

Asia Times Online -

There are facts and then there are facts. Take the case of the recent mass protests in Burma or Myanmar, depending on which name you prefer to call the former British colony.

First it's a fact which few will argue that the present military dictatorship of the reclusive General Than Shwe is right up there when it comes to world-class tyrannies. It's also a fact that Myanmar enjoys one of the world's lowest general living standards. Partly as a result of the ill-conceived 100% to 500% price hikes in gasoline and other fuels in August, inflation, the nominal trigger for the mass protests led by saffron-robed Buddhist monks, is unofficially estimated to have risen by 35%. Ironically the demand to establish "market" energy prices came from the IMF and World Bank.

This is all understandable powder to unleash a social explosion of protest against the regime.

It is also a fact that the Myanmar military junta is on the hit list of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the Bush administration for its repressive ways. Has the Bush leopard suddenly changed his spots? Or is there a more opaque agenda behind Washington's calls to impose severe economic and political sanctions on the regime? Here some not-so-publicized facts help.

The tragedy of Myanmar, whose land area is about the size of George W Bush's Texas, is that its population is being used as a human stage prop in a drama scripted in Washington by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), the George Soros Open Society Institute, Freedom House and Gene Sharp's Albert Einstein Institution, a US intelligence asset used to spark "non-violent" regime change around the world on behalf of the US strategic agenda.

Nairobi | Oct 15

SA -
The combination of a crisis in Sudan's unity government and fresh violence in Darfur is threatening to trigger a full-blown conflict in the oil-rich region of Kordofan, say observers.

They said that Kordofan, which had increasingly seen the Darfur conflict spill over its borders, could be Sudan's next frontline.

Late last month, suspected Darfur rebel groups killed 10 African Union peacekeepers in Haskanita, which lies on the border with Kordofan. Rebels also launched a deadly raid against police inside Kordofan in August.

Last week, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement suspended its participation in the country's unity government, the most serious snag yet in the peace deal signed by Khartoum and the former southern rebels in January 2005.

Adrian Levy and Cathy Scott-Clark | Montana/Washington, DC | October 13

The Guardian - Richard Barlow was the CIA's expert on Pakistan's nuclear secrets, but he was thrown out and disgraced when he blew the whistle on a US cover-up. Now he's to have his day in court.

Rich Barlow idles outside his silver trailer on a remote campsite in Montana - itinerant and unemployed, with only his hunting dogs and a borrowed computer for company. He dips into a pouch of American Spirit tobacco to roll another cigarette. It is hard to imagine that he was once a covert operative at the CIA, the recognised, much lauded expert in the trade in Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).

He prepared briefs for Dick Cheney, when Cheney was at the Pentagon, for the upper echelons of the CIA and even for the Oval Office. But when he uncovered a political scandal - a conspiracy to enable a rogue nation to get the nuclear bomb - he found himself a marked man.

This is a great backgrounder on the blind eye turned to the Khan network being allowed to get Pakistan the bomb in defiance of stated US policy. Names will be familiar. ~ CiL (and similarities to the Sibel Edmonds case) - qB

Oct 13

BBC - Burma's military rulers have arrested three of the last remaining leaders of the recent pro-democracy protests which were violently suppressed.

Among those detained was Htay Kywe, who led some of the first marches and was a prominent activist in a 1988 uprising.

The arrests came as thousands attended a pro-government rally in Rangoon, many of them apparently under duress.

** Myanmar stages rally as UN envoy heads back to region ~ (Every factory in the industrial zone had to send at least 50 people to attend," one resident told AFP on condition of anonymity.)
** Myanmar: guns vs. Google
** Jewel Industry Wants Out Of Burma, Yet A Gemstone Ban Might Prove Hard To Enforce
** Myanmar generals visit arms maker in Russia

Rosalind Russell | October 11

Independent - Monks confined in a room with their own excrement for days, people beaten just for being bystanders at a demonstration, a young woman too traumatised to speak, and screams in the night as Rangoon's residents hear their neighbours being taken away.

Harrowing accounts smuggled out of Burma reveal how a systematic campaign of physical punishment and psychological terror is being waged by the Burmese security forces as they take revenge on those suspected of involvement in last month's pro-democracy uprising.

The first-hand accounts describe a campaign hidden from view, but even more sinister and terrifying than the open crackdown in which the regime's soldiers turned their bullets and batons on unarmed demonstrators in the streets of Rangoon, killing at least 13. At least then, the world was watching.

Rangoon | First posted Sept 25

BBC - Tens of thousands of monks and civilians in Burma's main city Rangoon have defied military warnings and staged new anti-government protests.

Some chanted "we want dialogue", others simply shouted "democracy, democracy".

Earlier lorries with loudspeakers warned residents that the protests could be "dispersed by military force".

Updates:
Violent Crackdown Launched
Myanmar agrees to receive UN envoy
Thousands Dead in Massacre of Monks
Massacre of the monks in Burma

Judy Dempsey | Berlin | Sept 25

IHT - The United States and the European Union will recognize Kosovo if the Balkan province declares independence from Serbia in early December when last-ditch negotiations end, senior U.S. and European officials said Monday.

The officials spoke as the Serbs and Kosovo Albanians prepared to sit down this week at the United Nations for talks that diplomats have billed as part of a final effort to get agreement on the issue. It has turned into a confrontation between the West and Russia, which has threatened to veto any Security Council resolution approving independence for Kosovo.

"The game plan is set," said a senior European diplomat who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. "The talks end on Dec. 10. If there is no sense then that Serbia and Kosovo can agree on the province's future, then Kosovo will make a unilateral declaration of independence. The U.S. will recognize that independence, and the Europeans, as far as they can remain united, will follow, too," he said.

The EU will support the U.S. stance despite a clear preference for a UN-backed solution. But it will find it difficult to speak with one voice for all the 27 member states, diplomats said.

candy | March 13

Things continue to deteriorate in Somalia. This morning there are reports that mortars were fired at President Abdullahi Yusuf's residence in Mogadishu. A young boy died in the attack. It seems Somalians need a little help in understanding what a furtive return to the capital entails. ;)

Two more people died in an attack on the deputy mayor of Mogadishu. Gunfights have continued to erupt across the city, in one children were caught in the crossfire. Gwynne Dyer notes that Somalia has slipped back into perpetual war

In a move that will only increase the violence Deputy Defence Minister Salad Ali Jelle announced plans to forcefully disarm residents in the capital and promises to secure the capital in 30 days. The TSG also decided to move the government seat from Baidoa to Mogadishu.

Reporters continue to be abused which has brought calls from The International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) to the African Union (AU) to protect journalists in Somalia. In other sad news at least 42 people, mainly children, have died in the last 24 hours from a suspected cholera outbreak in southern Somalia.

In the Agonist Economics Forum

All of the threads mauberly maintains in the Agnost Economics Forum are Compilation Threads.

For example:

U. S. Economy
Chinese Economic Roundup
Shipping
Asian Developments
U.S. Dollar
Housing Market
Enron matters
Debt market issues
Latin America
India
Metals Topics
Hedge Funds
Labor
Europe
Oil, etc.
World economy

Because the evangelical political movement has had so much influence on this administration's policies, both domestic and foreign, and because the leaders of this movement are still actively planning how to more firmly establish their policies in our government currently, this thread will examine the movement and its significance.

Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- India's industrial production expanded at the fastest pace in 11 years in November, increasing pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates this month to curb inflation.

Production at factories, utilities and mines rose 14.4 percent from a year earlier, the fastest since September 1995, after gaining a revised 4.4 percent in October, the Central Statistical Organisation said in New Delhi. Analysts expected an 11.3 percent increase.

Demand for cars, mobile phones and houses has risen amid record salaries and bank lending in Asia's fourth-biggest economy, spurring Volkswagen AG and Vodafone Group Plc to expand in India, and lifting sales by Tata Steel Ltd. Rapid consumer demand threatens to stoke inflation which may prompt the central bank to lift interest rates in its next monetary policy statement on Jan. 31.

LONDON (AP) -- Oil prices fell about $2 a barrel Tuesday to their lowest levels in 18 months in a market expecting more mild weather and rising inventories in the United States. Temperatures in the U.S. Northeast have been above normal this winter, curbing demand for heating fuels in the world's largest heating oil market.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped $2.04 to $54.05 a barrel in electronic trading by afternoon in Europe. The front-month contract last closed below $54 a barrel in June 2005.

February Brent crude at London's ICE Futures exchange fell as much as $1.96 to $53.64 a barrel.

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Expansion in European service industries, the biggest part of the economy, unexpectedly slowed in December, a sign growth in the region may have peaked.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc said its services index, which gauges growth in industries from telecommunications to banking, fell to 57.2 from 57.6 in November. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Economists expected the index, based on a survey of purchasing managers by NTC Economics Ltd., to remain unchanged.

Economic growth may moderate from the fastest pace in six years after the European Central Bank raised interest rates, Germany increased a sales tax, and as a cooling global economy crimps European exports. The manufacturing industry also lost momentum last month. The economy may expand 2.2 percent this year after growing 2.6 percent in 2006, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said today.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) -- For most people, it's back to work Tuesday after a holiday weekend with family and friends. And for many, a new study shows, it will be under a bad boss. Nearly two of five bosses don't keep their word and more than a fourth bad mouth those they supervise to co-workers, the Florida State University study shows.

And those all-too-common poor managers create plenty of problems for companies as well, leading to poor morale, less production and higher turnover.

"They say that employees don't leave their job or company, they leave their boss," said Wayne Hochwarter, an associate professor of management in the College of Business at Florida State University, who joined with two doctoral students at the school to survey more than 700 people working in a variety of jobs about how their bosses treat them.

Pretty much what the hed says. Just a collection of pieces on Iran to be added to over time, particularly regarding the issue of proliferation, that I found interesting.

Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Kathleen Gaffney and Dan Fuss are buying all the non-dollar debt they can for Loomis Sayles & Co.'s flagship bond mutual fund. They're also producing the best returns among managers who can buy government and corporate bonds anywhere in the world.

The managers of the $8.3 billion Loomis Sayles Bond Fund have 40 percent of their assets in bonds outside the U.S., the most permitted under the fund's rules. Half the international holdings are in Canada, with most of the rest in Latin America and Asia.

Gaffney and Fuss target countries where they expect the currency to climb against the U.S. dollar because of faster economic growth. They say the dollar will drop in 2007 after falling 26 percent in the past five years versus the currencies of the biggest U.S. trading partners, according to a Federal Reserve index. The managers forecast little change in U.S. government bond yields through the first quarter.

Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Thai stocks rallied from the biggest slump in 16 years after the military-led government scrapped restrictions for international investors that roiled shares in emerging markets.

The SET Index jumped 11 percent to 691.55 at the close, its biggest gain since Feb. 2, 1998. It was the largest fluctuation among equity markets included in global benchmarks. Yesterday's 15 percent drop erased $23 billion in market value, prompting the government to rescind penalties on equity investors who don't keep their funds in the country for a year.

The policy reversal, a day after the new rules were announced, damages the credibility of Thailand's three-month-old government, led by former army chief Surayud Chulanont. International investors had increased stock purchases since a Sept. 19 coup ended seven months of political turmoil that disrupted government spending and dented consumer confidence.

Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Mohamed El-Erian took over the management of Harvard University's $29.2 billion endowment, the world's largest, five months after its previous boss departed with the entire fixed-income staff in tow.

Interest rates rose, causing bond investments made by the former team to drop in value. Harvard's return on its endowment fund slipped to 16.7 percent in the fiscal year ended June 30, the lowest in three years, and behind rivals Yale University and Stanford University.

El-Erian, 48, says he's not going to let Harvard become overly reliant on a single team or strategy again. He has cut the fund's traditional dependence on bonds, shifting more assets to buyout funds and non-U.S. markets. He also hired five senior managers from Stanford, Deutsche Bank AG and elsewhere to replenish Harvard's in-house talent.

Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Leaders of 12 South American nations took a first step to create a political and economic union to promote growth, reduce poverty and increase the region's trade bargaining power with China, the U.S. and Europe.

``It won't take 50 years to complete our union like it did in Europe,'' Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told reporters at the end of the Second Summit of the South American Community of Nations, or CASA, in Cochabamba, Bolivia. ``We have much to decide, much that divides us, but more in common.''

South America, with an economy about half the size of China, has seen growth hampered by a lack of transportation, energy and economic links, said Lula, whose economy accounts for about half the continent's activity. Unless the nations unite, trade negotiations with the U.S., Europe and Asia will be harder, said Rafael Correa, president-elect of Ecuador.