Could this be one of those moments when the middle class and poor people in this country awaken to the reality of their economic distress? It will be if people really listen to what Barack Obama had to say on this subject rather than digest only the snippets of quotes that the opposition are ranting about.

From Hillary Clinton to John McCain to a variety of newscasters and pundits, the attack on Obama has focused on his elitism and lack of sympathy for the average American. The focus is entirely on these two sentences Obama said during a fund-raiser in San Francisco:

You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them. And it's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.

Is there anything the Republican Party loathes more than FDR and the New Deal? How many times have people like Newt Gingrich and Grover Norquist vowed to dismantle the regulations, entitlement programs, and safety nets created by the New Deal? Time and again we’ve seen assaults on all aspects of FDR’s legacy, including a Social Security “reform” effort in 2005 that might have succeeded if George Bush hadn’t been hobbled by the Iraq War.

Last month the Republicans had a great victory in their effort to undo the New Deal, by eliminating completely any distinction between commercial banks and investment banks, while at the same time giving investment banks unfettered access to the public treasury with none of the responsibilities or burdens placed on commercial banks. All of this was accomplished in the same way as 9/11 allowed the administration to claim unheralded executive powers – by using an “emergency” to justify a power grab perpetrated with no reference to you the taxpayer, or your representatives in Congress.

O Hillary! Bold Hillary! Your courage so inspiring!
On Tuzla’s deathly airport field you braved those snipers firing.
The bullets sprayed about your feet, yet you went on undaunted;
While all around you ran in fear, your fearlessness you flaunted!

(Except there were no snipers there, no bullets to evade;
An eight year old had welcomed you with flowers she displayed.
This wasn’t quite the threat you claim, no reason for distress.
The only thing you had to dodge were questions from the press.)

That armored plane that flew you in with death-defying action -
It cork-screwed into Tuzla field, creating a distraction!

In the list of problems central bankers worry about, the very worst is a systemic crisis. Systemic risk occurs when the failure of one financial institution brings about the failure of another, and it arises from the complex network of bank-to-bank trades that exist in a variety of products. Most central bankers go through their careers without even witnessing a systemic crisis; Ben Bernanke has just started his career right in the middle of one.

Make no mistake: this Bear Stearns failure is the very definition of a systemic crisis. Bear Stearns is a major financier for hedge funds; it runs one of Wall Street’s largest back offices for processing trades; it has transactions on its books with everybody big in the derivatives business. If Bear Stearns collapses, there isn’t a bank in the world that won’t be counting their losses.

I have several friends and family who support Hillary Clinton for president, and since I support Obama, conversations have been getting a bit testy lately. Still, I’ve managed to glean some insight into their thinking and the emotions they’ve invested in this nomination race. You can learn a lot as well from reading blogs and comments from Hillary fans, though unfortunately these discussions on both sides have increasingly degenerated into vituperative.

There are three important claims being made by Hillary supporters: she is better able to stand up to Republican attacks, it is time for a woman to ascend to the Oval Office, and the Clinton approach to running the party has been successful and should be maintained. How do these arguments stand up to the challenge from Barack Obama?

The financial losses that are being announced almost daily are starting to blur. What sense should we make of the $11.1 billion write-down that AIG, the giant insurance company, took on its investment portfolio? Is this stupefyingly large, or just very large? A lot of the loss related to subprime mortgage securities and credit default swaps, and AIG said more losses are to be expected this year. Will these be much bigger? Since AIG isn’t saying, we have to guess.

Which means we have to pay attention to the estimates of losses for the financial industry as a whole that are starting to be published. This past week the Swiss bank UBS said it estimated that total global financial industry losses from the credit crisis will be around $600 billion. That sounds gargantuan, but who is included in the definition of the global financial industry, and how much of total industry capital is at stake? It is time, therefore, to put these losses into context and see if the financial industry is being hurt, crippled, or mortally wounded by these losses.

When Stephen Kazmierczak stepped from behind the curtain on the stage of Cole Hall at Northern Illinois University, he was wearing all black clothes and a black ski mask to hide his face. Now what was the ski mask for? Surely not to hide his identity, since he must have known that within 24 hours of his death that afternoon, hundreds of millions of people around the world would be familiar with his name and his face.

Probably he was trying to present to his victims an image of terror or evil, much like we’ve all seen in the movies or television shows that depict the bad guys when they go about shooting people down indiscriminately. Whatever his reasons, the masked Stephen Kazmierczak had one thing in common with the rest of us as we ponder over these massacres- we all wear a mask as well in refusing to look at these episodes for what they truly reveal.

"Ironically, the NIE may have made war with Iran more likely," Kinzer, author of All the Shah's Men, says in this exclusive interview for The Agonist

American corporate media may not believe it as they throw primary and caucus results at us in a daily staccato, but the world keeps spinning. As important as the question, who's going to be the next American president, certainly is, there are other issues that require our constant attention and us not letting our guard down. With the publication of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran last December, the media has declared Iran no longer an issue. The military option is off the table for the foreseeable future. Matter closed.

“I wanted it to be a surprise for you.”

So said Jérȏme Kerviel to the senior management of French bank Societe Generale when they asked him what he expected to do with a hidden €1.4 billion ($2.1 billion) trading profit at the end of last year.

Not for nothing was Kerviel chosen for the “nicest trader award” last year by the back office at Societe Generale. Kerviel is going down in financial history not only as the person who engineered the largest trading loss ever (€4.9 billion), but as the humblest rogue trader yet. Even French financial authorities are impressed – they dropped fraud charges against him when they discovered he did not benefit from his activity by one cent.

Bank of America announced this morning that virtually all of its quarterly profit was wiped out by write-offs of Collateralized Debt Obligations and related mortgage securities. The bank set aside reserves for further losses in its consumer mortgage and credit card portfolio, in line with large increases in defaults and delayed payments in the fourth quarter of last year.

Several weeks ago the bank had alerted markets to the charge-offs, but the amount written down in the CDO portfolio of $5.28 billion was $2.0 billion more than anticipated. At that time, CEO and Chairman Kenneth Lewis said "There's been a change in social attitudes toward default .... We're seeing people who are current on their credit cards but are defaulting on their mortgages....I'm astonished that people would walk away from their homes."

With one year to go in the Bush presidency it is time for political pundits and reporters to start writing articles assessing his successes and failures. You are guaranteed to see a few articles interviewing presidential historians for their learned view on this question.

The first response from these historians is usually “It’s too soon to tell.” This is the same thing as saying “Some day in the future an academic doing a job just as important as mine will tell you how George W. Bush ranks. In the meantime, would you like to read my book on Franklin Pierce?”

When pressed, these historians will provide you with their list of the five greatest and five worst presidents, and see where Bush falls on this spectrum. The trouble with these lists is that the historians tend to give equal standing to all presidents: James Buchanan started out with just as much of a prospect of being a great president as did FDR. But of course this isn’t exactly true either, so the historians will tell you next that to be a great president you have to have been a war president.

This is the first thing that went wrong with the Bush presidency: he listened to these historians even before he got into the Oval Office.

Bookchat is closed. But I want to take a moment to thank Hannes, LJ and BuddhaSixFour for their time and effort. If you are an author and want to do the same thing as Hannes has done, please shoot my or Ian an email and we'll see what we can do. ~spk

While many are now breathing at least a small sigh of relief that the Iran war party has been put in a box by the recent release of the National Intelligence Estimate, Hannes Artens in his novel "The Writing On The Wall." suggests the opposite. A looming war with Iran might well be like the Doomsday Machine from the movie Dr. Strangelove—waiting to be triggered by an unexpected incident and unstoppable.

The novel begins on November 11, 2011 in the waning minutes of the life of the 44th President of the United States, Jim Whitman, a moderate Republican. He and his advisors sit in horror waiting for word of the results of the launching of five nuclear tipped missiles targeting Indian cities launched by radical jihadists who have overrun Pakistan. The strain of two years of a botched war with Iran, political and economic chaos at home, and a world beset with a worsening economic depression and a clash of civilizations world war proves to be too much for the failed president who succumbs to an apparent heart attack. So much for the Prologue.

Tomorrow, December 20, 2007 at 11:00 AM Eastern we are proud to announce the first Agonist Bookchat with author Hannes Artens to discuss his book "The Writing On The Wall."

The bookchat will be hosted by LJ and BuddhaSixFour, and the comments will be moderated by Hannes and myself. Hannes' book is a fictionalized account of a possible war with Iran and I'm certain this discussion will be very interesting. You can find Hannes' book here.

Please join us!

Ode to Gen. Petraeus

Hail, David H. Petraeus!
Doughty master of the Surge.
Paragon of urban warfare,
Veritable demi-urge.

Even in al-Anbar province
Roadside bombs have ceased to kill.
What’s your secret, from whence comes your
Counter-terroristic skill?

Could it be those tough Israelis,
And their miles of settlement wall,
With their checkpoints and their searchlights
Keeping terrorists in thrall?

Is that how you conquered Baghdad,
Smothering with concrete block,
Ghettoizing all who live there -
Martial law around the clock?

Americans have long had a battle with death. We like to pretend that we are exempt from death, knowing full well this is not true, but believing nonetheless that we should be able to postpone it, ignore it, reduce it to something unthreatening, or maybe not even notice it when it happens to us.

Some of this is the result of two thousand years of Christian theology, which promises eternal life once we shuffle off the mortal coil. Even the evil and unworthy get eternal life, it’s just not in a very pleasant place.

A growing number of Americans have adopted the concept of the Rapture, when the select few will rise up bodily to join Christ in heaven while everyone else suffers during the Tribulation, a time of earthly horrors precedent to the Last Judgment. The important thing about the Rapture movement is not the theological soundness or weakness of the concept, it is that the preachers who espouse this doctrine emphasize that the event is going to happen soon. This is just another form of the peculiar American denial of death – the believers own an exclusive reprieve from death altogether.

Eric Koo Peng Kuan | Austin | December 5

The Agonist - In September 2005, a commentary by retired Admiral Hideaki Kaneda of Japan’s Self Defence Forces, he argued that other Asian nations must be alerted to the arrival of Chinese-style aggressive sea power.1

China’s maritime strategy is not an unconceivable one. Beijing has made no secret of the fact that a separate Taiwanese nation state will not be tolerated. To back such words effectively, substantial naval strength is required. China is gradually building up its naval capabilities in both surface fleets as well as submarines, in order to make its claim to the island of Taiwan not only just a credible one, but one in which it can fulfill realistically if necessary.

Eric Koo Peng Kuan | Austin | December 3

The Agonist - Even as the Iranian nuclear crisis deepens and the dispute on Tehran developing its nuclear program was brought to the United Nations, it remains an undeniable fact that Tehran was not going to give up its nuclear program any time soon. Despite diplomatic efforts, international talks, and military posturing, the West has till now, failed in making two states, North Korea and Iran, give up their nuclear ambitions.

Besides bringing to international consciousness about the threat of terrorism, September 11 also heralded in a new era of warfare. The rationale of impoverished states in pursuing a program of nuclear development at all costs is a logic one, in a perverse way. States logically pursue a defense policy by allocating resources in purchase of the most powerful and up-to-date weapons. But what if, it has been demonstrated that even a massive build up of tanks, aircraft and warships still failed in performance when taken to the field against a technologically much superior enemy, leading to utter defeat?

More after the jump

A story missed by the world's mainstream press.
Visit the website of Total Intelligence Solutions at www.totalintel.com and click on the RHS on the Intel Watch Map & look up the security assessment for the UK.
Britain is NOT classified as 'stable' but 'uncertain' & 'unchanged' - similar to countries such as Thailand, Bangladesh, & Columbia.
Now click on the UK icon for more details on the percieved security threats. This lists Islamic Terrorism, the potential spread of Foot & Mouth disease, and most interestingly 'the UK remains susceptible to public disorder'
Total Intelligence Services is a spin-off company from the Blackwater USA Group which is currently the subject investigation into the killing of innocent civilians in Iraq.

Sean-Paul Kelley | San Antonio | April 3

Agonist Exclusives - So, late last week Ian posed two questions to Mr. Kevin Phillips, the author of American Theocracy, about the hit piece on his book hosted by Slate and written by Mr. Jacob Weisberg.

Ian first asked:

Jacob Weisberg's piece has only a few accusations which are actually grounded in your book. One is that you never actually make the case that the Iraq war was about oil. If you were to state your case briefly, what would it be?

Mr. Phillips replied:

Oil: George H.W. Bush and James Baker in 1990-91 admitted that expelling Iraq from Kuwait was about oil; Iraq's boundaries were originally drawn around oil; most oilmen assume the 2003 war was about oil; the first major building seized in Baghdad was the oil ministry with its seismographic maps.

Ian's then asked, with a dash of trepidation:

Jacob's piece is notable for its complete dismissiveness of you as a clueless geek, and of almost all your work. In fact, Weisberg states "His biennial books have become illogical, dizzying screeds. And his diagnoses, predictions, and advice to Democrats have been consistently, embarrassingly wrong." Can you state one prediction you made in a prior book which has come true, and do you have any insight into why Weisberg seems so determined to dismiss the entire body of your work except "the Emerging Republican Majority"?

To which Mr. Phillips replied in two parts:

[As to a] prediction: I just wrote a piece citing how at the end of American Dynasty, I included a prediction that if George W. Bush was re-elected, calls would later emerge for his impeachment.

Finally, concerning his thoughts on Jacob Weisberg, Mr. Phillips wrote us:

I know very little about him. Perhaps he has rabies.

More as we stir it up.

Here is a link to a page of archived Agonist Exclusives that are not otherwise avaiable as regular articles here any more.

These are articles written by Team Agonist members and worth checking out!

Some of what we used to call Agonist Exclusives are now posted as Diary Entries by featured guest authors and members of the editorial team.

This includes opinion pieces and analysis pieces.

So if you don't find them in this Agonist Exclusives news post by topic section any more, look for them in the individual author's diary.

Actual news interviews, etc, will still be in this news topic section.

Fareed Zakaria, one of the leading theorists of neo-liberal political economy takes a hard look at the neo-conservative order that has followed. To understand what is going on, it is necessary to disentangle two concepts from seemingly closely related ideas. The first is neo-liberalism and its degeneration into neo-conservatism, the second is the difference betwen illiberal and alliberal, or even anti-liberal, states. Zakaria has written continuously on the threat of illiberal democracy, and it is necessary to disentangle two groups of states which conduct formal elections, but which show a continuous disregard for liberal democracy.

Agonist Exclusive
Did Bob Gammage Vote Against Wiretapping Warrants?
Sean-Paul Kelley | San Antonio | January 26

The Agonist - Did Bob Gammage, a candidate for Texas governor, vote to give any president the unfettered authority to invade innocent citizen's privacy? Did Bob Gammage vote against the original FISA bill? In conference no less? Did he vote against fundamental constitutional checks and balances? This document indicates that he did.

This is an absolutely essential debate that we must have in this country and in Texas: how much power is enough? And when are Democrats going to stop blowing with the political winds and stand up to the Republicans huffing and puffing? What it looks like here is that Bob Gammage is another one of those fair weather Democrats like Henry Cuellar (George Bush's best friend) who say they are Democrats but vote with Republicans. Sure, we need bipartisan cooperation in Austin. But no capitulation before we've even gotten there.

I want to make this clear that this is not an attack on Bob Gammage, I just want to know why he thought FISA was such a bad idea back then? And does he still stand by his vote?

As I said to a friend late last night, "this is a serious question. I know it's not going to make anyone happy--with me especially--but it's darned serious and important. I want to know where he stands." Gammage is free to sign up for a login like John Kerry or Ted Kennedy at Kos and explain why he voted the way he did to us. We encourage him to do so. We encourage open debate.

Update: This isn't just an issue here in Texas. It's an issue in Vermont. This should be an issue everywhere.

from all of us at The Agonist ~Happy New Year!
An extra second for agonising! But 4 me 2006 is here!
Graham | Canberra, Australia | January 1, 2006

Team Agonist - Years come and years go. 2005 was fairly average. Joys and sorrows, griefs and anxieties continue. Hope lasts! And we have an extra second at the end. Enjoy that!

We, the pampered few, indulge in our good food and wine, and entertain ourselves with our daily forays into the pixellated world of matters USA and international.

The majority of us have witnessed from afar the grief of tragedy, whether the after effects of the Tsunami, the London Bombings or the devastation of sundry hurricanes in Asia and the Americas. The minority of us have struggled with depression, unemployment, illness, family woes and detention.

Behind each login name at the agonist there is a network of real people, many living lives of quiet desperation. The agonist provides an escape, an information source and an unequalled international networking resource.

On behalf of the editorial team I would like to thank the technical team for keeping the servers serving and all the contributors for keeping the news queue and diaries constantly updated and interesting.


continues after the jump

A Way To Fight Bird Flu?
Emily Tai & Eric Koo Peng Kuan | Singapore | December 26

The Agonist - In a modern age where farming and animal husbandry is directed by technological advances and scientific knowledge, viruses, diseases and plague arising from poultry still remain of concern and are issues of concern to the rest of the consumer world. In early December 2005, it was reported that Thailand had experienced its second bird flu case within two months, China its fifth, and two new outbreaks from Vietnam.¹ U.S. health authorities have also approved an initiative to market the antiviral drug Tamiflu for preventing influenza in children ages 1 through 12.²