The Agonist - Levant

Lebanon's Hariri, Hezbollah form new government

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 08:31:30 -0800

Nicholas Blanford | Beirut, Lebanon | Nov 10

CSM - Five months after a Western-backed coalition narrowly beat the Hezbollah-led opposition in in Lebanon's June elections, the two sides reached a deal Monday night.

Lebanon's feuding leaders have struck a deal on the formation of a new government – five months after a Western-backed coalition secured a narrow electoral victory against the Hezbollah-led opposition.

The formation of a national unity government, which includes two members of Hezbollah, could usher in a period of stability for Lebanon as it attempts to chart its way out of five years of political turmoil and bloodshed.

Many challenges remain, however, not least the tensions over Hezbollah's continued armed status, which was highlighted again last week with Israel's seizure of a cargo ship carrying 500 tons of weapons and ammunition allegedly destined for the militant Shiite group. Lebanon also remains caught between regional rivalries and the divergent interests of Syria, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran – factors that analysts say will virtually paralyze foreign-policy decisionmaking by Saad Hariri, the prime minister designate, and his new cabinet.

"There will be a delicate balance in the country," says Sateh Noureddine, columnist for Lebanon's As Safir newspaper. "It will be able to resolve minor issues related to social and economic problems, but will not be able to deal with any big political issues related to Syria, Israel, Iran – anything related to the foreign policy of Lebanon."

The identities of the 30 new ministers were unveiled Monday night following a meeting between Hariri, Lebanese President Michel Suleiman, and Nabih Berri, the parliamentary speaker. The ministerial portfolios were split between the leading political blocs, reflecting their respective shares in parliament.

The March 14 bloc, a coalition of mainly Christians and Sunnis that is supported by the West as well as Saudi Arabia, received 15 seats. The Hezbollah-led parliamentary alliance, which includes mainly Shiites and Christians, was handed 10 seats – two of which went to Hezbollah politicians. The remaining five portfolios were filled by people chosen by the politically neutral president.

The Story of 'Operation Orchard'

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 15:14:22 -0800

Erich Follath & Holger Stark | Nov 2

Spiegel Online - How Israel Destroyed Syria's Al Kibar Nuclear Reactor

In September 2007, Israeli fighter jets destroyed a mysterious complex in the Syrian desert. The incident could have led to war, but it was hushed up by all sides. Was it a nuclear plant and who gave the orders for the strike?

Hezbollah gears up for new war

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 08:59:12 -0800

Mitchell Prothero & Peter Beaumont | Nov 8

The Observer - Fighters rearm and reinforce positions in valleys amid fears that Israel is about to launch attack on Islamic group

Hezbollah is rapidly rearming in preparation for a new conflict with Israel, fearing that Benjamin Netanyahu's government will attack Lebanon again prior to any assault on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Last week, Israeli commandos seized a ship in the Mediterranean loaded with almost 400 tonnes of rockets and small arms – which Israel claimed was being sent from Iran to its Hezbollah allies. In dramatic further evidence of growing tensions, the Observer has learned that Hezbollah fighters have been busy reinforcing fixed defence positions north of the Litani river.

Having lost many of its bunkers in the south, Hezbollah is preparing a new strategy to defend villages there.

Although the organisation denied last week that the weapons were intended for its use, senior commanders have done little to disguise the scale of rearmament. "Sure, we are rearming, we have even said that we have far more rockets and missiles than we did in 2006," said a Hezbollah commander, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"The Neocon dream of Turko-Israeli regional military-economic cooperation sphere is now in tatters"

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 08:40:36 -0800

My friend Chuck Spinney writes in from Turkey this morning riffing off a recent op-ed in the Times. I can't quibble with what either of them have to say. Chuck says:

As someone who has lived in Turkey for most of the last two years, I have watched the development of her foreign policy with great interest, not to mention a good deal of confusion.

It is hard to make sense out this rapidly-emerging, vibrant country of 70 million, increasingly well-educated, industrious people. While its remote interior is still very traditional, Turkey's coastal regions are already beginning to blossom into an outward looking, modern multinational consumer society, and the effects of rising incomes and education are very visible. In the coastal regions, I would say that living standards are now higher than those of Portugal, about the same as those of Greece, and somewhat lower than those of Spain. To be sure, the interior is poorer, especially as one travels east, but even in the east, there is growing modernity. Everywhere, markets are chock a block with high-quality healthy food and vast quantities middle income consumer goods, and there is fresh water galore, especially in the coastal regions.

The attached op-ed by Patrick Seale is a good summary that brings clarity to much of what is going on with Turkey's foreign policy and is well worth reading.

But there is more. Not mentioned are Turkey's bilateral overtures to Russia, Georgia, the Ukraine, and the various Turkic countries in great swath of Central Asia (including the Uighurs in NW China), as well as a bewildering variety of multilateral environmental and economic initiatives in the Black Sea region (involving Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, Greece, and Turkey). On a personal level, when talking to individual Turks, I have sensed occasionally some faint echoes of a revival of the kinship links which once connected the cosmopolitan inhabitants around the Black Sea littoral (Turks marrying Ukranians and Russians, Turkish Tatars reconnecting with distant relatives in the Crimea or Kuban, Turkish Las east of Trabzon connecting to Georgians, etc.)

Much of this dynamism is definitely due to the proactive leadership of Prime Minister Edogan and Foreign Minister Davutoglu in the sense described by Seale, but part of the impetus, I think, also comes from Turkey being sucked willy-nilly into the power vacuum that arose suddenly with collapse of the Soviet Union, and then was deepened more recently by the escalation of US bungling in the Middle East and Central Asia (especially wrt Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Afghanistan,and Syria). The interplay of chance and necessity is now shaping unfolding events in an unpredictable way.

What this political/social evolution means for the Greater Middle East as well as relationships among Turkey, the EU, and the US is unknowable at this point in time, but we may be witnessing the beginning of what may turn out to be one of the most important geopolitical realignments of the 21st Century.

One this is clear, however: The Neocon dream of Turko-Israeli regional military-economic cooperation sphere is now in tatters. How Israel adapts to these changes and how Israel attempts to use its pernicious lobbying influence in the US to shape our response to these changes is likely to be one the great strategic headaches for President Obama and his successors for the foreseeable future.

Here's a link to the Times op-ed.

Turkey drops Israel's participation in joint air-force drill

Sat, 10 Oct 2009 22:42:15 -0700

Oct 11

Haaretz - Turkey has dropped Israel's participation in the joint air-force drill planned to take place within the country's jurisdiction, as reported on Israel Radio on Sunday.

The annual drill was scheduled to begin on Monday with air-forces from the U.S., NATO, Italy and Israel but was delayed to an unknown date after the U.S. withdrew its participation following Turkey's request to ban Israel from the exercise.

Israel-Turkey relations have been tense since Cast Lead, especially in light of a televised fracas between President Shimon Peres and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the Davos Conference this past January.

JPost - Defense officials told the Post that Turkey informed Israel of the cancellation of the Anatolian Eagle exercise last week, which was to also include US, Italian and NATO forces, saying this was because the planes that Israel was going to send likely bombed Hamas targets during Operation Cast Lead in the Gaza Strip earlier this year.

Armenia, Turkey Hit Glitch in Agreement to Build Diplomatic Ties

Sat, 10 Oct 2009 09:56:15 -0700

Mary Beth Sheridan | Zurich | October 10

WaPo - Senior Armenian and Turkish officials traveled to Switzerland on Saturday to sign an agreement that could set them on a course to end a century of hostility stemming from brutal massacres at the end of the Ottoman Empire.

But just as Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton's motorcade arrived at the University of Zurich for the signing of the accord, she got word of a last-minute glitch. The motorcade reversed and sped to a hotel, where U.S. diplomats tried to satisfy concerns on the Armenian side over language in the two countries' statements.

The accord was quietly brokered by the Swiss over the past two years, with the help of French, Russian and U.S. officials. Clinton has been in frequent contact with the two sides in recent weeks to help seal the deal.

The agreement still must be approved by the two countries' parliaments, where it is likely to face opposition from nationalists.

Muslim Turkey and Christian Armenia have had bitter relations since an outbreak of violence in 1915 that ultimately left hundreds of thousands of ethnic Armenians dead. Many historians call the killings genocide, but Turkey strongly rejects that label, saying people died in forced relocations and fighting.

If ratified, the accord could have implications well beyond Turkey and Armenia. It may ease tensions in other parts of southeastern Europe and help with the establishment of oil pipelines to the West, officials said.

"It's a huge step. It's a historic breakthrough," said David Phillips, a scholar at American University who has worked on the dispute.

Turkey, Armenia to sign peace agreement

CNN, By Jill Dougherty, October 10

Istanbul -- The historic Saturday signing of an agreement normalizing relations between Turkey and Armenia was delayed when the Armenian delegation objected to the wording of an oral statement.

"We are facilitating the two sides in coming to an agreement on the statements that they're going to make at the ceremony," U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said.

He didn't indicate what Armenia's problem with the wording was.

The statement was to be delivered after the signing in Zurich. Officials said the signing is apparently not jeopardized by the holdup.

The agreement would normalize relations between the countries after nearly a century of animosity.

Saudi King leaves Damascus after "historic" two-day visit

Thu, 08 Oct 2009 07:03:19 -0700

Damascus | Oct 8

DPA - Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz left Damascus Thursday ending his two day 'historic' visit to Syria, in which he held political and economic talks with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Saudi Arabia has called on Syria to take part in efforts to solve inter-Palestinian problems, support Iraq and Lebanon as well as cooperating to fight terrorism and extremism in the region, sources in the Saudi delegation told the German Press Agency dpa.

Abdullah arrived in Syria Wednesday, in a move hailed as a 'historical' and 'landmark shift' in diplomacy between the two countries.

Syria and Saudi Arabia are two of the Arab world's longest standing rivals, with the latter having close relations with the US and Damascus having been implacably opposed to Washington's influence in the region for decades.

Genocide forgotten: Armenians horrified by treaty with Turkey

Thu, 08 Oct 2009 00:37:43 -0700

Robert Fisk | Oct 8

The Independent - A new trade deal is set to gloss over the murder of 1.5 million people

In the autumn of 1915, an Austrian engineer called Litzmayer, who was helping build the Constantinople-Baghdad railway, saw what he thought was a large Turkish army heading for Mesopotamia. But as the crowd came closer, he realised it was a huge caravan of women, moving forward under the supervision of soldiers.

The 40,000 or so women were all Armenians, separated from their men – most of whom had already had their throats cut by Turkish gendarmerie – and deported on a genocidal death march during which up to 1.5 million Armenians died.

Subjected to constant rape and beatings, some had already swallowed poison on their way from their homes in Erzerum, Serena, Sivas, Bitlis and other cities in Turkish western Armenia. "Some of them," Bishop Grigoris Balakian, one of Litzmayer's contemporaries, recorded, "had been driven to such a state that they were mere skeletons enveloped in rags, with skin that had turned leathery, burned from the sun, cold, and wind. Many pregnant women, having become numb, had left their newborns on the side of the road as a protest against mankind and God." Every year, new evidence emerges about this mass ethnic cleansing, the first holocaust of the last century; and every year, Turkey denies that it ever committed genocide. Yet on Saturday – to the horror of millions of descendants of Armenian survivors – the President of Armenia, Serg Sarkissian, plans to agree to a protocol with Turkey to re-open diplomatic relations, which should allow for new trade concessions and oil interests. And he proposes to do this without honouring his most important promise to Armenians abroad – to demand that Turkey admit it carried out the Armenian genocide in 1915.

President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority is in dire political trouble.

Tue, 06 Oct 2009 07:27:24 -0700

Simon McGregor-Wood | Jerusalem | Oct 6

ABC News - The U.S. ally is being accused by Palestinians of colluding with Israel and the United States in sidelining the controversial Goldstone report on Israel's military operation in Gaza.

The U.N.-sponsored report attracted widespread coverage last month with its stark allegations that both Israel and Hamas committed war crimes. Israel launched a concerted campaign to discredit the report. Most Palestinians saw it as a valuable diplomatic weapon with which to pressure Israel.

But, in Geneva Friday, Abbas, under pressure from the United States and Israel, agreed to defer a U.N. Human Rights Council vote on the report until next March, effectively burying it.

The story has outraged Palestinians across the political spectrum. Abbas is being accused of treachery. Even his moderate Fatah colleagues have publicly expressed their dismay

AP - Syria has postponed a planned visit by the Palestinian President amid controversy about his decision to suspend efforts to have Israeli officials prosecuted for war crimes

AFP - Chief Palestinian negotiator Erekat says Palestinian president 'seriously considering' asking Arab and Islamic bloc to officially take UN committee's conclusions on Gaza war to international bodies, in light of controversy raised around report

White House Reacts To Sibel Edmonds, Asks Congress To Sell Nuclear Secrets To Turkey

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 04:27:17 -0700

Originally posted Jan 15, 2008. Recent updates below in the comments ~ editors

A savvy blogger over at DailyKos has discovered an announcement by the Bush Administration, which appears to be pressuring Congress to retroactively approve the sale of nuclear secrets to Turkey.

hmmm...

Siebel Edmonds leaked her story to the UK Times two weeks ago, despite a court order. It was filled with tales of American diplomats acting in a treasonous manner by selling secretes to Turkey. If Bush gets the legislation he wants, then the treason will be authorized, and everything is hunky dory.

Naturally, this is all a bit fishy... and I hope those who broke the law for profit get punished severely. However, I can't find myself being too worried about Turkey having nukes. Geopolitically speaking, Bush may have fallen ass-backwards into something that could stabilize the middle east, and improve the US standing amongst Muslims.

Firstly, Turkey is probably the most modern, secular, and stable Muslim republic around. Besides human rights abuses, problems with the Kurds, and nationalistic rumblings, they're the top of the pile.

Second, a nuclear powered Turkey could redirect this nationalism away from violent extremism, and in the more positive direction of making Turkey a member of the "nuclear club." Very, very few countries at that table, and they all command respect. That usually satisfies the hurt egos that feed nationalism.

Third, its an interesting military barrier. Europe doesn't want Turkey in the EU because of the flood of Muslims through Turkey's porous borders. This could be a kick in the pants that would force Turkey to secure their borders. Also, a nuclear Turkey might be more willing to wait for full EU membership.

Fourth, all "clash of civilizations" stuff aside, this could make Turkey THE go-to guy when there's secular problems in the Muslim world. It reduces the influence of Iran, while not trying to step on the toes of religious countries like Saudi Arabia. Turkey could be a universally accepted half-way-point between the west and the mid east.

Of course, I'm no expert in Turkish history, or the Middle East... but I see some silver lining here... if and only if we have somebody competent running our foreign policy.

Israel hiding nukes in Golan, Syria claims

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 02:31:22 -0700

UPI | Cairo | Sept 23

UPI - Damascus in a report submitted to the United Nations claims Israel is burying nuclear waste, and possibly more, in the occupied Golan Heights.

The Syrian Foreign Ministry in a report linked to allegations of human rights abuses in the Palestinian territories blames Israel for "the crime" of disposing of nuclear, radioactive and other hazardous waste in tunnels throughout the Golan Heights.

The Damascus complaint says the move is part of an effort to prevent Syria from reclaiming the territory occupied and later annexed by Israel, the government-backed Egyptian newspaper al-Ahram reports.

Apart from the disposal of radioactive waste, reportedly from Israel's Demona reactor, the Syrian government now claims Israel is hiding nuclear warheads, nuclear mines and radioactive bombs throughout the Golan Heights.

Damascus claims Israeli forces are supervising the activity, while Israeli military officials say they are simply digging anti-tank ditches in the region.

Golan Heights is one of the more contentious issues concerning regional peace. Israel views the territory as an important strategic asset, while Damascus said it would not move forward with a peace settlement with Israel until the area is returned to Syria.

...............................

Arab Monitor

Israel accused of using Golan Heights for dumping nuclear waste

Damascus, 21 September – In a report submitted to the Unite Nations Syria accuses the Israeli authorities of using occupied Syrian territories for dumping nuclear waste. According to the report Israel has dug tunnels in the occupied Golan Heights using them as waste deposits.
A tunnel dug underneath Mount Hermon is allegedly being used to store nuclear warheads. In reports dating back to 2003 Syria had already accused Israel of burying nuclear waste from its nuclear plant Dimona in tunnels dug underneath Mount Hermon. At that time Tel Aviv admitted it was digging tunnels in Mount Hermon, but denied they were intended as dumping site for nuclear waste.

.................
Syrian News Station

23:39:12
Israel dumps nuclear waste in occupied Golan

Syria charges Israel with dumping nuclear waste near the Syrian border, in territories occupied by Israel in 1967 ..

In a report titled "The suffering of Syrian citizens in the Golan" and submitted to the United Nations, Syrian officials have stated that Israel uses tunnels in the Golan Heights to bury nuclear waste, the Egyptian newspaper Al-Ahram reported.

The report also charges that Israel has dug a tunnel in Mount Hermon to hide its nuclear warheads. According to Syrian officials, Israel has booby-trapped the nearby region and planted tactical nuclear mines in the area.

Syria had reported earlier in 2003 that Israel was digging tunnels in Mount Hermon to bury waste from its Dimona nuclear plant.
Tel Aviv has acknowledged that it was digging tunnels in the region but claimed that they were anti-tank ditches.

The United Nations, however, under dominating influence by the US, has yet to investigate or even consider looking into such reports. The US has always used its veto power in the UN unreservedly to provide total immunity for Israeli atrocities and war crimes against any binding actions or even criticism by the world body.

Hariri to step aside in Lebanon

Thu, 10 Sep 2009 06:44:46 -0700

Sept 10

BBC - Lebanon's Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri says he is to abandon his attempt to form a national unity government and is stepping down.

Mr Hariri has spent more than 10 weeks trying to assemble a government.

Earlier this week a team he put forward was rejected by Lebanon's opposition, led by Shia radical group Hezbollah.

President Michel Suleiman is expected to consult with parliament in an effort to nominate a new candidate for PM, reports say.

"Given that my commitment to forming a government of national unity has run up against difficulties that everyone now knows about, I announce that I have informed the president of the republic that I have abandoned trying to form a government," he said in Beirut.

"I hope that this decision will be in the interests of Lebanon and will permit a relaunch of dialogue," the AFP news agency reported him as saying.

Turkey, Armenia move to boost ties

Tue, 01 Sep 2009 05:58:27 -0700

September 1

Al Jazeera - Turkey and Armenia are at the beginning of a "long process" of normalising ties, the Turkish foreign minister has said.

Ahmet Davutoglu's comments on Tuesday came a day after the feuding neighbours agreed to establish relations and reopen their border under a plan to end nearly a century of hostility.

Davutoglu told Turkey's NTV television that the process would be long but that obstacles could be overcome and that the border could be open by the end of the year.

"If everything goes as planned, if mutual steps are taken, the borders could be opened around New Year," he said.

Azeris baffled by Turkmen legal threat

Wed, 19 Aug 2009 05:09:34 -0700

Kenan Guluzade | Baku | Aug 19

Asia Times - Political experts are baffled by a Turkmen announcement that it will take Azerbaijan to court over their maritime boundary, saying the decision does not seem to make political, business or legal sense.

European plans to diversify gas supply, by building the Nabucco pipeline from the Caspian region to Austria, could be under threat from the unexpected Turkmen claim, which would disrupt development of Caspian oil and gas fields and interrupt two years of improving relations between Baku and Ashgabat.

Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimukhamedov said just a month ago his country was keen to join the Nabucco project, but the legal challenge could harm the route by blocking production from fields on or near the Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan maritime border.

The Czar Makes Up With the Sultan Analysis

Wed, 12 Aug 2009 06:55:37 -0700

Hilmi Toros | Istanbul | Aug 12

IPS - Once the worst of enemies, involved in 12 wars in three centuries, Turkey and Russia have suddenly become the best of friends, forging strong bonds that could be a counterpoint to the European Union if it freezes Turkey out of full membership.

The countries call their ties "multi-dimensional co-operation," somewhat short of a "strategic partnership", but that too may be in the offing.

On an eight-hour visit to Turkish capital Ankara last week, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin signed 20 deals with his counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. These are mostly commercial contracts in energy, collectively worth some 40 billion dollars.

The two leaders also declared that rival gas pipelines Nabucco and South Stream to bring natural gas to European markets would be "complimentary" rather than "conflicting".

In the end, conflicting or complimentary, if both projects are realised, Russia and Turkey would play a major role in meeting Europe's growing gas needs. For Europe, either an unfriendly Turkey or Russia would endanger energy security - and it would be much worse if both were ever to gang up on the EU together.

Nabucco, the 7.9 billion euro project backed by the EU and the United States, would bypass Russia in bringing gas from Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Iraq and potentially also from Iran to Europe via Turkey. It is due to be operational by 2014.

The Russian proposed South Stream, to become operational by 2016, would carry gas from Russia to Europe through Turkey's territorial waters in the Black Sea and onward to Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Serbia, Hungary and Slovenia to Austria. Its objective is to bypass Ukraine, currently the conduit for 80 percent of Russian gas pumped to Europe.