The Agonist - Iran

Iran tested advanced nuclear warhead design – secret report

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 09:31:46 -0800

Julian Borger | November 5

The Guardian - Exclusive: Watchdog fears Tehran has key component to put bombs in missiles

The UN's nuclear watchdog has asked Iran to explain evidence suggesting that Iranian scientists have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design, the Guardian has learned.

The very existence of the technology, known as a "two-point implosion" device, is officially secret in both the US and Britain, but according to previously unpublished documentation in a dossier compiled by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iranian scientists may have tested high-explosive components of the design. The development was today described by nuclear experts as "breathtaking" and has added urgency to the effort to find a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis.

The sophisticated technology, once mastered, allows for the production of smaller and simpler warheads than older models. It reduces the diameter of a warhead and makes it easier to put a nuclear warhead on a missile.

Documentation referring to experiments testing a two-point detonation design are part of the evidence of nuclear weaponisation gathered by the IAEA and presented to Iran for its response.

The dossier, titled "Possible Military Dimensions of Iran's Nuclear Program", is drawn in part from reports submitted to it by western intelligence agencies.

[...]

James Acton, a British nuclear weapons expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said: "It's remarkable that, before perfecting step one, they are going straight to step four or five ... To start with more sophisticated designs speaks of level of technical ambition that is surprising."

Iran Clashes on Anniversary of Embassy Takeover

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 03:52:27 -0800

Robert F Worth & Alan Cowell | Beirut | November 4

NYT - Police firing tear gas and wielding batons clashed Wednesday with anti-government demonstrators in Tehran who sought to turn a rally commemorating the 30th anniversary of the takeover of the American Embassy into a renewed protest against the disputed June 30 election, news reports said.

The protesters had turned out to display opposition to the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose victory in Iran’s disputed elections last June provoked Iran’s biggest political crisis since the Islamic revolution in 1979.

Reuters quoted a reformist Web site, Mowjcamp, as saying police “opened fire” on protesters at Haft-e Tir Square, but there was no independent confirmation of the incident in which an unspecified number of people were reported injured. It was not clear whether the police opened fire with guns or were launching tear gas canisters.

The authorities had deployed thousands of security forces to thwart opposition plans for demonstrations.

Witnesses quoted by Reuters said police wielding batons clashed with hundreds of protesters chanting “Death to dictators” and “God is greatest.” In photographs posted on opposition Web sites, riot police in helmets could be seen clashing with protesters near Tehran University with clouds of tear-gas visible in the air.

Tehran: Taking the capital out of a city

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 06:44:08 -0800

Penny Spiller | November 3

Iran's rulers are considering plans to relocate the country's capital. They say Tehran is in danger of being struck by a major earthquake. So how easy is it to move a capital out of a city, and where might Iran's go?

BBC - Tehran is a sprawling metropolis at the foot of the Alborz mountain range. It is home to some 12 million people, and is the largest city in the Middle East. Not only is it the political and economic heart of the country, the city has a cosmopolitan air with its museums, art galleries, parks and universities. It has been Iran's capital since 1795.

But now a powerful state body, the expediency council, has approved plans by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to end Tehran's days as a capital. The government is said to be reacting to calls from Iranian seismologists, who have long warned that Tehran lies on at least 100 known fault lines, and would not survive a major quake intact.

But the timing of this decision - coming as it does months after some of the worst anti-government riots Tehran has ever seen - is interesting, says Dominic Dudley, deputy editor of the London-based Middle East Economic Digest. more

Conditions ready for nuclear cooperation: Ahmadinejad

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 03:08:59 -0700

Tehran | Oct 29

AFP - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Thursday that "conditions are ready" for a nuclear deal with world powers following a change in Western policy from "confrontation to cooperation."

Ahmadinejad welcomed the prospect of an agreement on uranium enrichment as Iran prepared to hand over its formal response to proposals drawn up by the UN nuclear watchdog in Vienna later on Thursday.

The hardliner, whose presidency had seen Iran on a collision course with the West over its failure to heed repeated UN Security Council ultimatums to suspend uranium enrichment, said Iran was keen to respond positively to the new approach.

"We welcome fuel exchange, nuclear cooperation, building of power plants and reactors and we are ready to cooperate," the president said in a speech in Iran's second city of Mashhad broadcast live on state television.

He said the West had previously talked of "halting and suspending everything, but now they are talking about fuel exchange, nuclear cooperation, building nuclear power plants and reactors. They have moved from confrontation to cooperation."

He said that as a result "the conditions for nuclear cooperation are ready".

Iran: Oil bourse inaugurated

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 14:49:34 -0700

October 27

Tehran Times - The Iranian Oil Bourse was inaugurated on Monday in the Persian Gulf island of Kish as a venue to export oil and petrochemical products.

National Petrochemical Company's Managing Director Adel Nejad-Salim said in the opening ceremony that all petrochemical products will be gradually offered on the market, IRNA news agency reported.

The oil bourse is intended as an exchange market for petroleum, gas, and petrochemicals in various currencies, primarily the euro and Iranian rial, and a basket of other major currencies.

On February 4, 2008 the Iranian Cabinet approved the creation of the oil bourse in two stages - first for crude and second for oil byproducts transactions.

Iran, having the world's second largest gas reserves and third largest oil reserves, is trying to play a more active role in oil and petrochemical transactions in international markets.

Inside Iran's Intimidation Campaign

Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:33:26 -0700

Gary Sick | October 25

The Daily Beast - Last week, an Iranian-American colleague of mine, Kian Tajbaksh, was sentenced in Tehran to 15 years in prison. The indictment included the charges that (1) he was in contact with me; (2) that he was part of the Gulf/2000 network that I manage; and (3) that I am an agent of the CIA.

Normally, I simply ignore silly accusations such as this. They are nothing new. On one hand, it has been intimated that I must be under the influence of Iranian intelligence (by prominent neoconservatives who believe that my views on Iran’s political development and especially its nuclear program are not sufficiently alarmist). I have also been accused (by such worthies as Hossein Shariatmadari, the ultra-radical editor of Iran’s Kayhan newspaper, who is also a representative of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei) of being a CIA agent. I regard these insinuations as badges of honor, since they merely confirm that I do not subscribe to the ideological extremes of either of these groups. I have always felt that my reputation could speak for itself and required no public defense.

However, this time the accusations are really not about me but about a friend and colleague. Moreover, they are not just newspaper hyperbole by people who have an ax to grind and whose desire to make a political point exceeds their respect for the truth. These assertions are a matter of law—an official indictment by the judicial authorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

more

Israeli, Iranian officials "held talks on nukes"

Thu, 22 Oct 2009 07:08:54 -0700

Jerusalem | Oct 22

AFP - A representative of Israel's Atomic Energy Commission held several meetings with an Iranian official to discuss nuclear issues in the region, the commission's spokeswoman said on Thursday.

The spokeswoman declined to give details of the meetings, but the Haaretz daily said the officials discussed the chances of declaring the Middle East a nuclear-free zone.

"There were several meetings between a representative of our commission and an Iranian official in a regional context," spokeswoman Yael Doron told AFP.

"These meetings were held behind closed doors," she said, adding that they were organised by Australia.

She declined to give further details of the talks, the first between the two archfoes to be officially disclosed since the shah of Iran was deposed in 1979.

Iran nuclear talks 'off to good start', says UN host

Tue, 20 Oct 2009 01:41:54 -0700

Julian Borger | Vienna | Oct 19

The Guardian - The head of the UN's nuclear watchdog said tonight that international talks on Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium were "off to a good start".

Despite fears that negotiations could collapse after Tehran gave conflicting signals, delegates from Iran, the US, Russia and France talked for two and a half hours and agreed to meet again tomorrow morning.

"We're off to a good start. We have had a constructive meeting. Most technical issues have been discussed," Mohamed ElBaradei, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the host of the talks, said today.

If the talks succeed, most of Iran's stock of low-enriched uranium (LEU) would be sent to France and Russia for processing so that it could be used in a Tehran research reactor for making medical isotopes.

Iranian commanders assassinated

Sun, 18 Oct 2009 03:03:29 -0700

Oct 18

BBC -

Several top commanders in Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards have been killed in a suicide bombing in the volatile south-east of the country.

Iranian state media say at least 20 people have died in the attack, in the province of Sistan-Baluchistan, and dozens more injured.

The commanders were in Pishin region for a meeting with tribal leaders.

Iran has previously accused a Sunni resistance group, Jundallah, of terrorist activities in the province.

Sistan-Baluchistan is mainly made up of the Baluchi ethnic group, who belong to the Sunni Muslim minority of Shia-ruled Iran.

The deputy commander of the Guards' ground force, General Noor Ali Shooshtari, and the Guards' chief provincial commander, Rajab Ali Mohammadzadeh, were among the dead, Irna state news agency reported.

Reuters - Iranian state television cited informed sources as saying Britain was directly involved in Sunday's suicide attack on the elite Revolutionary Guards, which killed several senior officers.

** Iranian official blames deadly bombing on 'U.S. actions'
** Jundallah (Soldiers of God) claims responsibility for the attack

Benchmarks prove elusive in Iran talks

Wed, 14 Oct 2009 07:22:02 -0700

Kaveh L Afrasiabi | Oct 14

Asia Times - United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's high-profile trip to Moscow this week to shore up Russian support for tougher sanctions on Iran if talks on its nuclear program fail has been openly rebuffed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

He labeled as "counter-productive" even the mere threat of sanctions at this delicate moment in the Iran nuclear standoff. "At the current stage, all forces should be thrown at supporting the negotiating process. Threats, sanctions and threats of pressure in the current situation, we are convinced, would be counter-productive," Lavrov said.

Iran activist sentenced to death for election protests

Thu, 08 Oct 2009 19:26:52 -0700

Robert Tait | Oct 9

The Guardian - The first death sentence has been passed against a defendant accused of involvement in the mass protests in Iran against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's disputed re-election, prompting fears of a wave of executions against opposition activists.

A revolutionary court in Tehran handed the penalty to Mohammad Reza Ali-Zamani, 37, after convicting him of muhabereh – taking up arms against Iran's Islamic system.

The sentence was imposed after he confessed to working for a little-known exile group, the Iran Monarchy Committee, which Iranian officials describe as a terrorist organisation. Prosecutors alleged that he plotted political assassinations with US military officials in Iraq before returning to Iran "aiming at causing disruption during and after the election".

Ali-Zamani admitted guilt during a series of public mass trials that began in August in which scores of senior pro-reformist politicians confessed to fomenting the unrest that followed Ahmadinejad's victory. Opposition leaders condemned the events as "show trials" and say defendants were tortured to force them to confess. Human rights campaigners today challenged Ali-Zamani's conviction and warned that it paved the way for further politically driven executions.

Iran sees U.S. role in researcher's disappearance

Thu, 08 Oct 2009 00:45:10 -0700

Tehran | Oct 8

Reuters - Iran accused the United States on Wednesday of involvement in the disappearance of a technology university researcher "rumored" to be involved in Tehran's nuclear program, Iranian media reported.

ISNA news agency referred to "some rumors that Shahram Amiri, who went missing during a pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia in June, was an employee of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization who wanted to seek asylum abroad.

Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki did not confirm that when he made the allegation against the United States, which suspects the Islamic Republic is seeking to develop nuclear weapons. Iran denies the charge.

"We have found documents that prove U.S. interference in the disappearance of the Iranian pilgrim Shahram Amiri in Saudi Arabia," he told reporters, according to the website of state Press TV, without giving details.

U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said, "We saw that wire story, and we looked into it.

"We just basically don't have any information on this individual," Kelly told reporters.

David Sanger: "Iran Close To Nukes." But Not Really

Sat, 03 Oct 2009 17:55:28 -0700

Motherfucker.

Sorry, I just had to say that.

Am I the only one that read this article in the Times and spit shit out all over my screen in disgust? Really, there is nothing, absolutely nothing new except a whole raft of 'coulds' and 'ifs' jumbled together to make it look like Iran was TeH close to having a bomb, so fuck, the Israelis are going to bomb 'em and we should too!

Sanger writes: "While there is little doubt inside the United States government that Iran’s ultimate goal is to create a weapons capability, there is some skepticism about whether an Iranian government that is distracted by an internal power struggle would take that risky step, as well as the questions about how quickly it could overcome remaining technological hurdles."

Hey David, why don't you actually do some journalism and inform your readers what those 'remaining technological hurdles' are?

I need a drink.

Update: Newshoggers deconstructs, brutally so. Read it.

UPDATE 10/4: Sanger Strikes Again: Report Says Iran Has Data to Make a Nuclear Bomb ~ did they get the data off the internet? ;) and 10/5: Newshoggers' latest Sanger rebuttal

original post Sep 10 ~ editors

A Qom Bomb? No, But a Seismic Shock From Iran

Mon, 28 Sep 2009 06:18:53 -0700

THE DEPROLIFERATOR -- President Obama's appearance at the United Nations this week was intended as a show with a sideshow. First, he became the first U.S. president to chair an "extraordinary" session of the Security Council, with the nations represented not by diplomats but by actual heads of state, not diplomats. The council approved President Obama's resolution legalizing military action against states daring to weaponize their nuclear power program.

The sideshow, at which Secretary of State Hillary Clinton represented the United States in a conference "complementary" -- as opposed to extraordinary -- to the Security Council session, produced a general recommitment to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).

But the main show, as we all know, succumbed to nuclear fission and split in two. In fact, the whole week became a three-ring circus when Iran was tipped off that U.S. intelligence was aware that it had been building a uranium enrichment plant in Qom. Iran then admitted as much in a perfunctory note to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

On Thursday David Sanger of the New York Times had written that President Obama moved "to tighten the noose around Iran, North Korea and other nations that have exploited gaping loopholes in the patchwork of global nuclear regulations." After Iran's revelation, that got a whole lot easier.

The administration is using the opportunity to bring Russia and a more skeptical China to commit to "crippling" sanctions if Iran doesn't cease its uranium enrichment. Still, Laura Rozen reports for Politico, according to George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment, despite what seems like a smoking gun, the administration originally hadn't sought to disclose its Qom evidence yet. Then why did Iran admit to the plant before it was accused?

"Because the Iranians are trying to get in front and create an argument that they didn't do anything wrong," [said Perkovich]. "So to try to block that, Obama had to get [it] out. We would have been better off not announcing and keeping it as leverage. . . in a future deal."

Bottom line: How much closer is Iran to developing nuclear weapons? Patrick Barry, writing for Democracy Arsenal, cautions that the time period during which the United States knew about the Qom installation. . .

. . . coincides with the development and release of the the [U.S. 2007 National Intelligence Estimate] on Iran's nuclear program. . . which found that the Iranians were not actively seeking a nuclear weapon. [While] it's troubling that this facility was kept secret, its existence does not actually prove that Iran is moving past the break-out capability they are suspected to be pursuing. From the public's perspective, Iran is no closer to a nuclear weapon now than they were before this intelligence was released. [Emphasis added.]

But outside the spotlight, what's going on in the second ring is, if not as dramatic, at least as important. As Ms. Clinton said in her remarks to the CTBT meeting, "The [CTBT] is an integral part of our non-proliferation and arms control agenda, and we will work. . . to ratify the treaty [which] will permit the United States and others to challenge states engaged in suspicious testing activities." But how will you know if they're testing? "More than eighty percent of the. . . International Monitoring System [has] already been installed."

In a recent Arms Control Today article, CTBT preparatory commission head Tibor Toth explains how monitoring, in its four variations, works. Hydroacoustic monitoring checks for sound waves from underwater explosions, infrasound monitoring measures low frequency waves created by atmospheric nuclear explosions, and radionuclide monitoring detects radioactive particles or gas from a nuclear explosion.

Seismic monitoring, which you're familiar with from earthquakes, "is usually the first to detect underground nuclear explosions. [For example] a total of 61 seismic stations registered. … the nuclear test announced by the [North Korea] on May 25."

But, Global Security Newswire reports (sorry, lost the link) that Kaegan McGrath, a senior researcher for the James Martin Center for NonproliferationStudies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies warns that the administration must approach ratification for the CTBT with caution or it could "harden positions" against the treaty. "The United States," he said, cannot even "promise its own ratification; all it can do is revive the CTBT in the U.S. and then only through a concerted effort on the Obama administration's part."

Why, you may wonder, has the United States, which has signed the CTBT, been resistant to ratifying it when 150 states have not only signed but ratified it?

"In fact, there may have been another, unstated reason for the apprehension about adopting the CTBT," writes Christopher Ford, former United States Special Representative for Nuclear Nonproliferation -- Russia. Apparently, it has been "conducting secret low-yield tests as part of the Kremlin’s ongoing warhead development program and overall modernization. … [China, too, is] 'possibly' engaging in low-yield testing."

Apparently? Possibly? What about all that state-of-the-art monitoring? After all, Toth writes that the U.S. National Academy of Sciences reported that "underground nuclear explosions can be reliably detected. . . down to a yield of 0.1 kilotons (100 tons) in hard rock."

In fact, the United States may be projecting what's required to detect a U.S. nuclear explosion onto what's required to detect nuclear explosions by other countries. Ford writes:

. . . it is worth remembering that the United States may well end up facing more long-term reliability problems with its nuclear arsenal than many current weapons possessors [because of our] finely tuned warhead designs. [Whereas other nuclear-weapons countries] may not have felt any need for such elegant and temperamental designs.

In other words, a CTBT might nor protect us or other states against countries whose simpler weapons don't need to be tested -- as we didn't with the simple design we used on the Hiroshima bomb. Moreover, writes Ford, "Renegade Pakistani nuclear weapons scientist A. Q. Khan. . . provided pre-tested Chinese designs to Libya." He concludes:

Since testing is not a prerequisite for weapons development, we should not assume that even the most verifiable CTBT regime would simply stop the development of nuclear weapons. [It might only] push competition toward design approaches that do not require testing. … [A] key to evaluating the real merits of a test ban regime would be to ask whose weapons development plans it would most inhibit."

Another conclusion we might draw is that complete disarmament will put an end to not only nuclear weapons but to all the elaborate, costly, and erratic apparatus trailing in their wake. Imagine a world in which verification and monitoring weren't central to our security, but instead just cursory routines. In the interim, let's not permit the Iran blame game to divert our eye from the disarmament prize.

First posted at the Faster Times.

Iran atom chief: IAEA to inspect uranium-enrichment plant

Sat, 26 Sep 2009 04:43:19 -0700

Sept 25/26

Iran atom chief: IAEA to inspect uranium-enrichment plant

The head of Iran's Atomic Organization said Saturday that agreements have been made with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect the new uranium-enrichment plant near Tehran.

'Considering the suitable cooperation between Iran and the IAEA, there will be an inspection of the new plant in due time,' Ali-Akbar Salehi told state television without giving a precise date.

He said the new plant is located 100 kilometres south of the capital Tehran and would become operational in more than one year. The country's first enrichment plant Natanz is located in central Iran.

Salehi, who is also one of the ten vice-presidents of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, expressed bemusement over the harsh international reaction to the new plant.

'We are indeed very surprised because whatever we did was within the legal framework and in line with all IAEA regulations,' Salehi said.

Salehi said that, according to IAEA regulations, any nuclear plant should be brought to the attention of the IAEA six months before going operational.

'In the case of the new plant, we did it even more than a year (before the operational phase),' he said, indicating that the plant would not become operational before the end of 2010.

'We are really surprised about the international reactions - there is no basis for them,' he added.

Iran tells IAEA it is building 2nd enrichment plant ~ original post

Iran has told the U.N. nuclear watchdog it has a second uranium enrichment plant under construction, a belated disclosure sure to heighten Western fears of an Iranian bid for atom bombs.

continued after the jump, also check comments for current articles

** U.S. to Accuse Iran of Having Secret Nuclear Fuel Facility
** Iran admits secret underground nuclear plant~ Confession of uranium plant pre-empts accusation expected from US, France and UK

BBC: IRAN STAND-OFF - Uranium enrichment plant 'was not secret', says Iran's nuclear chief and leaders demand UN inspectors access immediately.

Debategraph: How to respond to Iran’s nuclear ambitions? ~ cool tool

Blog Response:
What is Iran up to? ~ Stephen M Walt/Foreign Policy
Obama, the UN and Future Iran Sanctions ~ Juan Cole/Informed Comment
Paradox: Now is the Time to Deal & Covert Site in Iran ~ Geoffrey Forden/Jeffrey/Arms Control Wonk
Iran's New Nuke Facility ~ BJ Bjornson/Newshoggers
Obama, the Gap Band, and Today's Iran's News ~ Patrick Barry/Democracy Arsenal
Iran's Second Enrichment Facility?Judah Grunstein/WPR