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 <title>The Agonist - Ruminations</title>
 <link>http://agonist.org/taxonomy/term/220/all</link>
 <description></description>
 <language>en-US</language>
<item>
 <title>Politicians Have Filled the Pipeline with Pain for Middle America</title>
 <link>http://agonist.org/americanmuser/20091115/politicians_have_filled_the_pipeline_with_pain_for_middle_america</link>
 <description>&lt;p&gt;The announcement of financial overhaul legislation in the U.S. Senate this week smacked of irony as its author, Senator Chris Dodd—the recipient of a sweetheart rate on his own home mortgage—announced a sweeping 1,136 page piece of legislation to “protect consumers.”  It appears at this point that the protection consumers and Middle America really need is from this nation’s politicians, who have too long lined their pockets with campaign contributions from big business and who have allowed financial institutions to fleece Middle America.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It wasn’t but a couple of years ago that big business and congress all but eliminated the ability of consumers to effectively discharge their debts in bankruptcy proceedings.  At the same time, banks and financial institutions were making loans to borrowers who clearly could not qualify.  Banks, financial institutions and credit card companies continued extending generous limits on credit cards and lines of credit to consumers.  Now be fair, much of the mortgage activity came from Democrats in congress who believed that everyone had an inalienable right to own a home, evidently whether they could afford it or not.  And naturally, Republicans, who long ago sold their soul to big business, positioned their bank and financial institution contributors for all of the mortgage business.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Middle America knew and assumed the risk that what goes up would someday come down, perhaps crashing down, which it did.  But when it did and as many Americans lost and continue today to lose their jobs, bankruptcy was and is simply not an available option.  Our politicians and big business have virtually eliminated it as an effective option for many consumers.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Now, consumers that are interested in honestly reworking their mortgages cannot even get a return phone call from their lender, and if they do they are told they do not qualify for any sort of loan modification.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So here we are—after encumbering themselves with mortgages they cannot afford, credit cards and credit lines they cannot pay down, financial institutions have the shameless and arrogant audacity to raise consumers’ credit card interest rates to 30%.  Clearly, consumers have to take a certain degree of responsibility for their own condition, but how did our elected members of congress and the senate allow big business to systematically repeal consumer protections at virtually every turn?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Middle America really needs to understand how and why our politicians have allowed financial institutions to raise credit card interest rates to a level that is clearly usury.  No consumer knowingly consents to a 30% interest rate, regardless of whether there’s a meaningless disclosure on the back of his or her monthly credit card statement on page 3 in tiny type font.  Nor do consumers knowingly consent to what has become an ordinary practice by banks and financial institutions of charging consumers $35 for overdraft protection or checks returned due to insufficient funds.  Sure, consumers can choose to bank elsewhere, but the practice of fleecing consumers with fees has become so universal by financial institutions that consumers really have no choice.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Without bankruptcy as a viable option for many in Middle America, there is plenty of pain left in the pipeline for years to come as consumers will remain enslaved with unmanageable consumer debt.  With no end in sight, consumers will continue to labor under the heavy load of mortgages on devalued homes they cannot afford, credit card bills they cannot pay, and no available remedy in a bankruptcy court that can set them free to start over.  It appears that consumer protection is dead and caveat emptor is alive and well.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A. Muser&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://americanmuser.wordpress.com/&quot;&gt;http://americanmuser.wordpress.com/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/economics/economics_usa">Economics: USA</category>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/opinion_0">Opinion</category>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/ruminations">Ruminations</category>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/usa/usa_congress_senate">USA: Congress</category>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/usa/usa_congress_senate/usa_congress_house">USA: Congress: House</category>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/usa/usa_congress_senate/usa_congress_senate">USA: Congress: Senate</category>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/usa/usa_domestic_issues">USA: Domestic Issues</category>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/usa/usa_presidency">USA: Presidency</category>
 <pubDate>Sun, 15 Nov 2009 20:59:44 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
 <title>Middle America is Disillusioned with the Left and Right</title>
 <link>http://agonist.org/americanmuser/20091115/middle_america_is_disillusioned_with_the_left_and_right</link>
 <description>&lt;p&gt;“Disillusioned” is the word that best describes how many Americans feel after eight years of George Bush and the election of Barack Obama a year ago.  Republicans had a majority in congress and the presidency, yet achieved little for Middle America.  They betrayed voters by inflating the deficit and growing government, sending men and women into nation-building wars whose purposes are still unknown, and created a culture of moral and ethical corruption in Washington D.C.  It was under lax and pathetic regulatory oversight that a Republican president and Republican congress allowed corporations to betray shareholders with questionable and highly leveraged credit default swaps, only to be followed by a $700 billion taxpayer bailout created by the Bush administration—so much for limited government.  Republicans are a party without a message and without a messenger.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Last week’s election results in Virginia and New Jersey, where Republican candidates for governor triumphed over their Democrat opponents, say more about the public’s rejection of Obama’s big government solutions and less about Republicans articulating a message to help Middle America.  If Republicans think the public is embracing the party again, they are simply whistling past the graveyard, drunk on their own greed, and completely out of touch with the needs of Middle America.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Not that Democrats are offering any worthwhile solutions to address the most pressing needs of Middle America—job creation—but at least Democrats are intellectually honest about their desire for big government, universal healthcare, taxpayer-funded abortions, labor union power, and a litigious society for plaintiff lawyers to fleece the public.  There is something, dare I say “refreshing and frank” about knowing where Democrats are on issues that impact Middle America, whereas Republicans pretend to be something they are not.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is time for the Republican party to stop blindly whoring for the business community and begin addressing the issues that impact Middle America—job creation, affordable healthcare for all, and quality public education for our children.  Republicans are a one-trick-pony, where “tax cuts” are their solution for all of Middle America’s problems.  It’s because the party cannot articulate rational policy solutions to the real problems we face.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Take healthcare for instance; the Republican solution has been health savings accounts (HSAs).  Are you kidding me?  We can’t get people to save money in IRAs, never mind HSAs.  That’s the best Republicans have got?  Why don’t Republicans push to allow consumers to shop for healthcare across state lines, require everyone to have healthcare, and deny insurers from rejecting consumers with pre-existing conditions?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If Democrats have any hope of maintaining power, they too need to put viable solutions on the table for Middle America, where people care a hell of a lot more about jobs and the economy than government-run healthcare, union card check, the protection of gays from hate crimes, and cap and trade.  Both parties have failed miserably to address the needs of Middle America, which I suppose is why I feel so disillusioned with both parties.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A. Muser&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://americanmuser.wordpress.com/&quot;&gt;http://americanmuser.wordpress.com/&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;
</description>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/opinion_0">Opinion</category>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/ruminations">Ruminations</category>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/usa/usa_congress_senate">USA: Congress</category>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/usa/usa_congress_senate/usa_congress_house">USA: Congress: House</category>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/usa/usa_congress_senate/usa_congress_senate">USA: Congress: Senate</category>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/usa/usa_domestic_issues">USA: Domestic Issues</category>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/usa/usa_presidency">USA: Presidency</category>
 <pubDate>Sun, 15 Nov 2009 20:54:28 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
 <title>A Poem For Tuesday</title>
 <link>http://agonist.org/sean_paul_kelley/20091110/a_poem_for_tuesday</link>
 <description>&lt;p&gt;Graham has posted a today&#039;s poetry thread &lt;a href=&quot;http://agonist.org/graham/20091110/tuesday_poetry&quot;&gt;here. Give it a read.&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Beginning next Tuesday we have a new regular guest poster for &#039;A Poem For Tuesday.&#039; Bruce Jacobs of &lt;a href=&quot;http://aliasbruce.typepad.com/&quot;&gt;AliasBruce,&lt;/a&gt; has kindly accepted our offer to guest post on a regular basis. A little about Bruce: &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Bruce A. Jacobs is the author of the book of poems SPEAKING THROUGH MY SKIN (MSU Press) and the nonfiction book RACE MANNERS FOR THE 21st CENTURY. He blogs at &lt;a href=&quot;http://aliasbruce.typepad.com/&quot;&gt;aliasbruce.typepad.com&lt;/a&gt;. He has been published in a whole lot of poetry journals and anthologies, including 180 MORE, edited by former Poet Laureate Billy Collins. He plays drums (pretty well) and saxophone (not so well), and he lives in Baltimore.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;And here&#039;s an introductory poem from Bruce himself: &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;ON AN ANTIDEPRESSANT, WEEK 3&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Look at the blackbirds,&lt;br /&gt;
says my friend, but I am already&lt;br /&gt;
at the window, wondering&lt;br /&gt;
if I will feel it, watching&lt;br /&gt;
their hundreds and hundreds&lt;br /&gt;
fling a net of themselves&lt;br /&gt;
into the gray surf of the sky&lt;br /&gt;
as if heading off a school&lt;br /&gt;
of flying baitfish, or trying to capture&lt;br /&gt;
the current. Such a reckless unfurling&lt;br /&gt;
of skins – into a whipping April wind&lt;br /&gt;
that smacks of snow.&lt;br /&gt;
But even as the flock’s fabric&lt;br /&gt;
rips loose from the treetops&lt;br /&gt;
and twists up into the storm,&lt;br /&gt;
it’s clear: the birds hold their grid,&lt;br /&gt;
its black mesh cuts the dusk&lt;br /&gt;
into diamonds, the trusted&lt;br /&gt;
invisible knots&lt;br /&gt;
still hold.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;

</description>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/ruminations">Ruminations</category>
 <pubDate>Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:18:47 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
 <title>Five Books</title>
 <link>http://agonist.org/sean_paul_kelley/20091106/five_books</link>
 <description>&lt;p&gt;If you knew you were going to stranded on a deserted island for a full year with no cable, iPod, DVD/Blue Ray or any other assorted form of entertainment and only had room for five books, which five books would it be?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Me? The Histories of Herodotus, The Divine Comedy by Dante, the complete Essays of Montaigne, The Complete Poems of Yeats and East of Eden by John Steinbeck. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You?&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/ruminations">Ruminations</category>
 <pubDate>Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:33:31 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
 <title>Thirty Years Later: Floods, Famine and Fundamentalism</title>
 <link>http://agonist.org/sean_paul_kelley/20091105/thirty_years_later_floods_famine_and_fundamentalism</link>
 <description>&lt;p&gt;These are mostly random thoughts, for the future never really coheres into a narrative until it is long since past. I&#039;ll address the Rights of Women and the Environment tomorrow. I&#039;ll be adding random thoughts as they occur. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Military/War/Diplomacy: &lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The US retains it&#039;s dominant power position, if only just. Most of it&#039;s power will rest on innovations long since past. China and the EU will have set up an alternative to the US&#039;s space dominance, however. The US will be unable to affect it&#039;s will in the Asia heartland but will still dominate the global littoral. The SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) will emerge as a serious player led by China, Russia and a nuclear Iran.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Japan will remain an ally, but will have attained great power status. Virulent piracy in the South China sea, led by a collapsed Indonesia, leads to the Japanese navy patrolling the Straits of Malacca. China and Japan engage in a naval build-up. But the US, in the aftermath of the depression, retains its global naval presence after a series of military realignment bills in Congress transform US grand strategy. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Korea is unified as the US footprint in Asia is at its lowest level since shortly before the Spanish-American War. The Navy and the Airforce garner a lion&#039;s share of the budget, as the army reverts to a post-World War One size. The deterioration of the US position in Latin America gains steam in the aftermath of a crisis with China over Taiwan, but overall the US maintains a grip on the politics of Latin America, if only just. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Pakistan and India nuke each other. India occupies the fertile lowlands of Pakistan and annexes them. Large swaths are uninhabitable. The Indo-American alliance grows stronger. North Korea implodes, sending an endless stream of economic immigrants over the DMZ. The Central Asian states fall under the sway of Russia and China, setting off a mini-Cold War of sorts between the two. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the aftermath of Castro&#039;s death, South Florida emigres press their &#039;ownership&#039; rights in Cuba. It quickly becomes an American playground for the wealthy. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the aftermath of the depression the United States ceases it&#039;s foreign aid to Egypt. Within a few years Israel is attacked by another Arab coalition, this one led by Egypt and Syria and the Jordanian House of Saud. The surprise attack from Syria and Lebanon regains the Golan Heights, but fails in the South. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mexico muddles along. Brazil announces a breakout &#039;nuclear capacity&#039; but doesn&#039;t build the bomb. The Australian population peaks and begins a rapid decline, fed by over-mining and a lack of water. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Economy/Development: &lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the aftermath of a economic depression brought about by banks &#039;too large to fail&#039; the United States defaults on its sovereign debt. No States leave the Union, although states paying more in taxes to the Federal government to welfare states use the threat of secession to repair the balance of monies shifted from wealthier states to poorer ones. A bill is pushed through Congress called the &quot;The Great Compromise of 2021,&quot; harkening back to the &#039;Great Compromise of 1850. It defuses a constitutional crisis. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But the politics of the US grow more extreme and violent in the face of said development. California and Texas routinely use the threat of secession to garner air force and navy procurement contracts. The South is a place of febrile intolerance, but the &#039;Great Compromise&#039; leaves its senators toothless. The Treaty of Lisbon led to a reawakening of soft-power in the EU, but only in it&#039;s near abroad. The EU does not enlarge itself. Turkey does not gain admittance. Falls back into more conservative-religious governance. The pace of scientific innovation in the developed world falls drastically, as fundamentalist movements in places as far afield as India and the United States create a very real anti-Enlightenment backlash. The Arab Middle East becomes ever more sclerotic and radical as peak oil becomes a reality. A succession of revisionist Popes in Europe leads to ever greater Muslim-Christian tension with radical anti-immigration parties adopting a more fundamentalist religion tone similar to that in turn of the century America. America remains the global land of plenty, but looks more and more like a bifurcated land of plenty, riven with sectarian violence. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Rights of Women: &lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In most of the world the rights of women are severely curtailed. Roe versus Wade is overturned in the US. Several southern states ban abortion outright. Evangelical Christianity makes increasingly large inroads in Latin America, deteriorating tenuous gains made in the late twentieth century. In Northern Europe women maintain their liberties, but they come under increasing pressure due to a global economic realignment as wealth shifts more and more to the global &#039;South&#039; and China. A succession of radically conservative popes--one from Latin America--bring about a reawakening of religion in Southern Europe. The Anglican Church splits on the issues of abortion and gay rights. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Environment:&lt;/b&gt; &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The depression in the United States and the globe begins when the bubble surrounding &#039;renewable energy&#039; pops. It is the last great economic expansion of the United States. Several Pacific and Indian Ocean island nations no longer exist. Portions of South Asia, once known for their intense population density are uninhabitable, creating a fresh pool of displaced laborers for the &#039;Indian economic miracle&#039; that is resembles slavery more than employment. Portions of Eastern China are also uninhabitable. Famine stalks many portions of the globe, including Peru, Western China, India, Pakistan, East Africa and also portions of the Sahel. Grinding, irremediable famine, that is. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Peak oil and global climate change bring about a remarkable change in Russia, as Russian neo-Communists win concessions in spreading the untapped wealth of the nation. Large tracts of oil and natural gas are exploited in areas hitherto impossible to develop. Russia is the sole developed nation that sees large scale population growth, outside of the US. A highway is built along the trans-Siberian railway and plans are afoot to link the Kamchatka Peninsula as well. Russia establishes are large naval base on the Arctic Ocean along the Ob River Delta. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In light of the melting polar icecaps the relationship between Canada and the United States is strained. Canada forces the United States to deal with it as a &#039;more equal partner&#039; and not as a junior partner. Right wing agitators imitate those south of the border. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Do I outline developments that are contradictory? Certainly. History is rarely smooth or logical. Am I bit too pessimistic? Perhaps. &lt;/p&gt;
</description>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/ruminations">Ruminations</category>
 <pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:31:25 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
 <title>Thirty Years Later: POW, population, oil and water</title>
 <link>http://agonist.org/sean_paul_kelley/20091104/thirty_years_later_pow_population_oil_and_water</link>
 <description>&lt;p&gt;I was going to start today, &lt;a href=&quot;http://agonist.org/node/62248/198708#comment-198708&quot;&gt;but Numerian beat me to the punch:&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;The Rights of Women&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Women will have made advancements across the globe – chiefly in those countries where their rights today are heavily restricted, such as in the Middle East. In most countries, women will enjoy the same rights available to a woman in France or Japan or the US today, but in these countries, women will improve their situation only marginally. This will still be a patriarchal world, and wars and insurrections will remain the work of men.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The fundamental right available to most women will be control over reproduction, since access to contraception will be nearly universal. Because of this fundamental development, the main issue facing our species in 2040 will be Peak Population. It will be evident even by 2025 that in most countries humans will not be reproducing enough to prevent a decline in population. Global population will peak around 9 billion and by 2040 will already be in decline, which will be dramatic in countries that cannot or will not induce enough immigration to compensate.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Peak Population will be the result partly of the inability of our species to feed, water, shelter and even clothe itself properly. But the principal motivation will be a paradox: the cost of raising a human to adulthood will be too high for all but the wealthiest families, and consequently women will be averaging less than the 2.1 children necessary to even stabilize population. The largest cost associated with child rearing will be education, since an adult will need at least a college education to survive on its own.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Enormous efforts will be made by governments to stimulate population growth, the major effort being universal education through college paid for by government. This will forestall Peak Population but not avert it, since environmental and other pressures – especially the right of women to have a career – will still work against having more than 2.1 children. Abortion will not be outlawed but it will be viewed socially as irresponsible, and in some areas as morally repugnant.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Environment&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Extrapolating from today’s global warming trends, it is possible to forecast a very bleak future for our species and others on the planet. If as looks feasible global warming is accelerating beyond even the pessimistic models, many currently habitable areas will be unlivable around coasts and in deserts. Thousands of other species will disappear, mostly in the insect kingdom, with the more noticeable losses among large mammals. The lost of habitat will be ascribed in part to the human infestation of the planet which will continue to encroach on the remaining open spaces, but desertification of the globe, including the oceans which in vast areas will become too saline to support life, will wipe out thousands of species on its own.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is possible that global warming will be forestalled if solar energy reaching the earth is throttled back should the sun enter a prolonged “solar minimum”, which may be underway. Even so, human pollution and habitat loss will not prevent continued species extinction and environmental degradation. These developments will feed negatively into the Peak Population phenomenon; the average person will be well aware by 2040 of the shrinking safe areas on the global for humans to live, and will have yet another constraint to consider when bringing children into the world.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Development and Economics&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Globalization will have run its course by 2040. Most countries, except for pockets of very poor places, will be economically on the same plane. By 2040, China will be as developed as the US, but what this means is that the standard of living of Americans, as with Australians, British, Swedes, etc., will have been lowered to meet the raised living standards of the Chinese, Indians, Brazilians, etc. Income disparity will be universal, with the richest 1% consuming and controlling 90% of the global wealth. In places like the US there will be occasional protests and uprisings, but the wealthy will remain in firm control over political and business institutions, and most importantly media and entertainment, since these will be even more critical levers of control over what is left of the middle class, and the vast underclass that will have enough income to “make do.” Making do on less will be an established if not revered social moré.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Capitalism will be in crisis. The driving force of capitalism is growth – growth in revenue, net income, investment, feeding in turn into growth in earnings per share and the stock price. This wealth machine at its core depends on population growth as a rising number of consumers helps create the growth that defines capitalism, but Peak Population will deprive capitalism of its raison d́ etre. Economic theories will be devised to explain this new world, and they will focus on a theory of Neo-Feudalism, in which economic actors like corporations will define success as maintaining market share. A high premium will therefore be put on innovation and the development of new products with slightly higher margins than existing products. In this way corporations will be able to grab market share from a shrinking population.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Agriculture and Food&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A cute little acronym will have become common by 2040 – POW! – referring to the three scourges of the planet: peak Population, Oil, and Water. Acute shortages of the latter two will contribute to Peak Population, as the human species will find itself trapped, unable to feed itself, unable to run its industrialized societies without cheap oil, and therefore unable to sustain population at 9 billion. Environmental degradation will put even more pressure on the human species and contribute in its own way to the POW effect.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It will be a toss-up as to whether water or oil shortages will be more severe, but a lot will depend on where you live. More and more humans will be fighting desertification and will be flocking to any place with stable, fresh water. Such places will be under political stress to keep out newcomers. There will be considerable progress in techniques like desalinization of sea water, so that costs will go down for extraction, but water will be too costly still to waste on open-air irrigation or with extravagant showers and toilets. Access to fresh water lakes and streams will be deemed highly valuable and therefore will be subject to political if not military conflict.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As sweet, cheap crude oil will be disappearing slowly over the next few decades, with the disappearance accelerating over time under Peak Oil, societies everywhere will be forced to shift to expensive alternatives. The French Model will be much admired and discussed, with its reliance on an extensive nuclear power system. The fundamental rights of man will be viewed, at least informally, to include the right to nuclear energy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Military/War&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The global political order will itself evolve into Neo-Feudalism, with power shared unevenly among large population countries such as the US, China, and India, courting small population countries like Saudi Arabia that have access to oil or water. Countries such as Russia, which has a large but already shrinking population but also has access to oil and water, will be in a privileged position. In this world, global cooperation through organizations such as the UN will not be easy, and the UN itself may cease to exist. About the only major advance in global cooperation will be in the tracking of every ounce of spent nuclear fuel, in order to prevent the development of nuclear weapons since so many countries will have nuclear power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Large scale war will be viewed as a thing of the past. For this reason, the United States will early in the century lose its hegemonic power. Its military will be seen to be bloated and out-dated for the regional conflicts over resources that will define 21st century war. Insurrectionists will have learned the valuable lessons from the Iraq wars on how to stymie a great military power with cheap, home-made incendiary devices exploited through guerilla warfare. No military answer will be available on how to fight those forces willing to use suicide bombers, though over time it will be seen that this technique is counterproductive in extended insurrections that stretch over many years.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The question for China will be whether it learns from the experience of the US and USSR and avoids bankrupting itself with a massive military/industrial complex. The odds of succeeding in this are not high, unfortunately, as long as China remains a controlled economy where the temptation for corruption between the state and the manufacturing sector remains high. Consequently, global power for a time will be bi-polar, shared by China and a descendant US, but eventually India and Russia will take their place in a new version of the 19th century Great Game.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;How these nations govern themselves will be of paramount importance, because Neo-Feudalism will be reflected in a tendency toward political disintegration within nation-states, and collapse altogether of the nation-state concept in favor of small regional duchies that align themselves along resource strengths. As an example, the population surrounding the Great Lakes may find common cause in protecting their fresh water resources, and they might establish a collective government that can stand up readily to either Washington or Ottawa. This will be possible because these duchies will have access to armies through their domestic police forces, which are already beginning the process of conversion to paramilitary forces and which eventually will only lack airpower in standing up to national militaries. But again, the lessons on how to defeat massive national armies are already available from the Iraq wars, and Neo-Feudalism will expand because the nation-state will have lost its monopoly on military power.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;More soon. Excellent food for thought.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/ruminations">Ruminations</category>
 <pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 08:18:16 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
 <title>A Poem For Tuesday</title>
 <link>http://agonist.org/sean_paul_kelley/20091103/a_poem_for_tuesday</link>
 <description>&lt;p&gt;How about &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogden_Nash&quot;&gt;a little light verse&lt;/a&gt; today? It gets too serious around here at times and remember: humor is good!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Common Sense ~Ogden Nash&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Why did the Lord give us agility,&lt;br /&gt;
If not to evade responsibility?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Do you have any light verse favorites? Limericks? Doggerel?&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/ruminations">Ruminations</category>
 <pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 11:25:17 -0800</pubDate>
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<item>
 <title>Thirty Years From Now</title>
 <link>http://agonist.org/sean_paul_kelley/20091103/twenty_years_from_now</link>
 <description>&lt;p&gt;While I was in Denmark my best friend, Stuart, asked me what I thought the world would look like in thirty years. Yes, yes, I know it&#039;s prediction and a lot of people don&#039;t like to speculate. But I think exercises like this are good, even if all they do is project the attitudes and prejudices of the present onto the future. In that vein I&#039;d like to offer a challenge to all the readers/diarists here and the writers/editors including Don, Numerian, Brian, Tina, Nat, QB. In a nutshell: a short essay, say a thousand words or less addressing how you see the future developing in five broad categories. Those categories are: agriculture/food, economy/development, environment, military/war and the rights of women. You can write about just the US, or the world at large, or, if you are an ex-pat the country in which you live. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I&#039;ll start tomorrow.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/ruminations">Ruminations</category>
 <pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 11:24:17 -0800</pubDate>
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<item>
 <title>Wish Your Troubles Away</title>
 <link>http://agonist.org/sean_paul_kelley/20091102/wish_your_troubles_away</link>
 <description>&lt;p&gt;There is a great deal of truth in Barbara Ehrenreich&#039;s new book. &lt;a href=&quot;http://features.csmonitor.com/books/2009/10/26/bright-sided/&quot;&gt;Of course village media-folk don&#039;t see it that way.&lt;/a&gt; After all, it&#039;s much easier to compare her to Michael Moore than take her criticism seriously. But no one, in my opinion, is better at shattering dearly held American myths better than she is. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The gist of her criticism is pretty indisputable if you ask me. She writes that we live in a society where we are taught that unemployment is your fault--actually, pretty much every economic ill that befalls you--is your fault. It&#039;s not the fault of rogue bankers and criminal executives. It&#039;s not the fault of spineless politicians and failing institutions. It&#039;s your fault--you, the individual because you didn&#039;t pray, wish, or &#039;visualize&#039; well enough to find a better job, or grow thinner or find a new and improved spouse, soulmate or whatever. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Look, the world is a rough place. And America is certainly a much easier place to live in than say Cambodia or sub-Saharan Africa. But that doesn&#039;t mean that economic life here is not cutthroat and brutal. That doesn&#039;t mean there isn&#039;t an elite in this country that&#039;s pillaging the place. Both are very real. And American&#039;s passion for the power of positive thinking, as she notes, &quot;has become a potentially deadly weight – obscuring judgment and shielding us from vital information.&quot;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It also shields us from making rational decisions, decisions based on our economic self-interest as opposed to some phantom based self-esteem issues. Did you lose your house? Well, it&#039;s your fault. Work on your self-esteem and you&#039;ll be content with less. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Did your husband leave you because you are too fat? Never mind that an individual may have a genetic predisposition to obesity, or the simple reality that most people in the world don&#039;t grow old so gracefully? Well, it&#039;s your fault that you don&#039;t look like Brad Pitt or Uma Thurman. There&#039;s something wrong with you! Think positive and buy this new weight loss pill advertised on TV!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Are you unhappy? Has the stress of having $50,000 in unpayable medical bills got you down? Just lard yourself up with anti-depressants until you&#039;re too numb to give a shit. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It&#039;s the perfect prescription for elite control of a post-Modern society and the best way to curtail the growth of angry populism. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Romans called it bread and circuses.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/ruminations">Ruminations</category>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/usa/usa_domestic_issues">USA: Domestic Issues</category>
 <pubDate>Mon, 02 Nov 2009 10:53:25 -0800</pubDate>
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 <title>Campaign For Real Beauty</title>
 <link>http://agonist.org/sean_paul_kelley/20091030/campaign_for_real_beauty</link>
 <description>&lt;p&gt;I cannot but help but to applaud the new (at least new to me) &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.dove.us/#/cfrb/selfesteem/default_new.aspx&quot;&gt;Dove Campaign for Real Beauty. &lt;/a&gt;It is a much needed counter-narrative and antidote to the anorexic, stick figures with implants culture we live in. Real beauty is a flawed beauty. Real women have flaws that are to be celebrated, no retouched by photo shop.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;object width=&quot;425&quot; height=&quot;344&quot;&gt;&lt;param name=&quot;movie&quot; value=&quot;http://www.youtube.com/v/hibyAJOSW8U&amp;amp;hl=en&amp;amp;fs=1&amp;amp;&quot; /&gt;&lt;param name=&quot;allowFullScreen&quot; value=&quot;true&quot; /&gt;&lt;param name=&quot;allowscriptaccess&quot; value=&quot;always&quot; /&gt;&lt;embed src=&quot;http://www.youtube.com/v/hibyAJOSW8U&amp;amp;hl=en&amp;amp;fs=1&amp;amp;&quot; type=&quot;application/x-shockwave-flash&quot; allowscriptaccess=&quot;always&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; width=&quot;425&quot; height=&quot;344&quot;&gt;&lt;/embed&gt;&lt;/object&gt; &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=8317943A6BCA4A1A&amp;amp;search_query=dove+campaign+for+real+beauty&quot;&gt;haven&#039;t watched the videos, &lt;/a&gt;I encourage you to do so. They are refreshing.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/ruminations">Ruminations</category>
 <pubDate>Fri, 30 Oct 2009 12:21:34 -0700</pubDate>
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<item>
 <title>A Poem For Tuesday</title>
 <link>http://agonist.org/sean_paul_kelley/20091027/a_poem_for_tuesday</link>
 <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bartleby.com/103/44.html&quot;&gt;Here&#039;s a classic by Yeats:&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;I will arise and go now, and go to Innisfree,&lt;br /&gt;
And a small cabin build there, of clay and wattles made;&lt;br /&gt;
Nine bean rows will I have there, a hive for the honey bee,&lt;br /&gt;
      And live alone in the bee-loud glade.	 &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;And I shall have some peace there, for peace comes dropping slow,&lt;br /&gt;
Dropping from the veils of the morning to where the cricket sings;&lt;br /&gt;
There midnight&#039;s all a glimmer, and noon a purple glow,&lt;br /&gt;
      And evening full of the linnet&#039;s wings.	 &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I will arise and go now, for always night and day&lt;br /&gt;
I hear lake water lapping with low sounds by the shore;&lt;br /&gt;
While I stand on the roadway, or on the pavements gray,&lt;br /&gt;
      I hear it in the deep heart&#039;s core.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;

</description>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/ruminations">Ruminations</category>
 <pubDate>Tue, 27 Oct 2009 14:34:17 -0700</pubDate>
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<item>
 <title>Deadlines Sucketh</title>
 <link>http://agonist.org/sean_paul_kelley/20091023/deadlines_sucketh</link>
 <description>&lt;p&gt;I&#039;m working on two deadlines right now. Sorry for the non-existent blogging, but next week will be better.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the meantime, enjoy the fun wordplay and completely shredded proverbs &lt;a href=&quot;http://schott.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/23/weekend-competition-all-roads-gather-no-moss/&quot;&gt;over at Schott&#039;s: &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;You’ve buttered your own bread, now lie in it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Speak softly and get out of the kitchen.&lt;br /&gt;
If you can’t stand the heat, carry a big stick.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;More &lt;a href=&quot;http://schott.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/23/weekend-competition-all-roads-gather-no-moss/&quot;&gt;here.&lt;/a&gt; Feel free to create your own in the comments.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/ruminations">Ruminations</category>
 <pubDate>Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:57:00 -0700</pubDate>
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<item>
 <title>Poetry Tuesday</title>
 <link>http://agonist.org/sean_paul_kelley/20091020/poetry_tuesday</link>
 <description>&lt;p&gt;It&#039;s Tuesday and though I haven&#039;t done it in a long time, it&#039;s poetry day here at The Agonist. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://blogs.nybooks.com/post/218239008/frederick-seidel&quot;&gt;Here&#039;s a good one:&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;BROADWAY MELODY&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A naked woman my age is a total nightmare.&lt;br /&gt;
A woman my age naked is a nightmare.&lt;br /&gt;
It doesn’t matter. One doesn’t care.&lt;br /&gt;
One doesn’t say it out loud because it’s rare&lt;br /&gt;
For anyone to be willing to say it,&lt;br /&gt;
Because it’s the equivalent of buying billboard space to display it,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Display how horrible life after death is,&lt;br /&gt;
How horrible to draw your last breath is,&lt;br /&gt;
When you go on living.&lt;br /&gt;
I hate the old couples on their walkers giving&lt;br /&gt;
Off odors of love, and in City Diner eating a ray&lt;br /&gt;
Of hope, and paying and trembling back out on Broadway,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Drumming and dancing, chanting something nearly unbearable,&lt;br /&gt;
Spreading their wings in order to be more beautiful and more terrible.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Be sure to read the post at the NYRBlog about the poet as well. It&#039;s enlightening, if enraging. I would add that in my reading of the poem, knowing what I know of the poet, there is a winsome hint of jealousy about not knowing love at his age, which reminds me of the Russian proverb: if a man wants love after fifty he should be sure to have daughters.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Post your favorites in the comments.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/ruminations">Ruminations</category>
 <pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 12:54:06 -0700</pubDate>
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<item>
 <title>Mannion: The Robot Economy</title>
 <link>http://agonist.org/sean_paul_kelley/20091018/mannion_the_robot_economy</link>
 <description>&lt;p&gt;Lance Mannion &lt;a href=&quot;http://lancemannion.typepad.com/lance_mannion/2009/10/the-service-less-service-economy.html&quot;&gt;has a great post on the &#039;service&#039; economy &lt;/a&gt;I recommend reading. My favorite graf: &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;By the way, this is why I boycott the automatic check-out at the supermarket even when I’m buying a single loaf of bread.  The robot cashiers don’t put two people out of work, a human cashier and a human bagger, they put one human to work doing the jobs of two---me.  They make me an unpaid cashier and bagger.  They make me a component in a system of robotic money dispensing and accepting.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There&#039;s a lot of humor in his point. But it is a point well worth making: you are the one doing the two jobs that have been lost.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Read the whole post.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/ruminations">Ruminations</category>
 <pubDate>Sun, 18 Oct 2009 10:35:02 -0700</pubDate>
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<item>
 <title>Note To Self</title>
 <link>http://agonist.org/sean_paul_kelley/20091017/note_to_self</link>
 <description>&lt;p&gt;Note to self: when sick, go see a doctor. Don&#039;t continually put it off, thinking, &#039;I&#039;ll be better tomorrow.&#039; &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Apparently I needed to be reminded of the fact that infections don&#039;t cure themselves and when untreated tend to lead to all sorts of nasty side effects. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Lesson learned.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
 <category domain="http://agonist.org/topic/ruminations">Ruminations</category>
 <pubDate>Sat, 17 Oct 2009 11:55:14 -0700</pubDate>
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