The Agonist - Global Warming

Hackers steal electronic data from top climate research center

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 13:14:41 -0800

Juliet Eilperin | November 21

Washington Post -
Scientists' e-mails deriding skeptics of warming become public

Hackers broke into the electronic files of one of the world's foremost climate research centers this week and posted an array of e-mails in which prominent scientists engaged in a blunt discussion of global warming research and disparaged climate-change skeptics.

The skeptics have seized upon e-mails stolen from the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia in Britain as evidence that scientific data have been rigged to make it appear as if humans are causing global warming. The researchers, however, say the e-mails have been taken out of context and merely reflect an honest exchange of ideas.

University officials confirmed the data breach, which involves more than 1,000 e-mails and 3,000 documents, but said they could not say how many of the stolen items were authentic.

Tea Baggers Target Al Gore

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 12:35:01 -0800

First they organize a tea bagging of a speech by Al Gore, then they vandalize the venue. I wonder if Koch Industries $ paid for the spray paint?

Full Disclosure: While I am not involved with this speech, I do consult for the Alliance for Climate Protection

The New Dust Bowl

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 17:54:57 -0800

In the 1930s, Okies saw California's Central Valley as a Garden of Eden. Now it's dying of thirst.

Mother Jones, By Josh Harkinson, November/December Issue

When I meet Javier Vaca on a dusty strip of blacktop, he's been walking for three days. The skinny 18-year-old is being carried along in a procession of 7,000 farmworkers and farmers as it crosses California's Central Valley, his baggy jeans and hoodie standing out amid the work boots and button-downs. He's been told only one thing that matters: Marching 50 miles might earn him a job.

"I don't want to jack nobody," Vaca says, as though the thought had crossed his mind. When the housing boom imploded last year, he lost a $14-an-hour construction job, a job that had allowed this son of farmworkers to drop out of high school, buy a car, and rent an apartment for his young wife and baby in Fresno. It took him a month to find more work, this time picking peaches at less than half his previous wage. Then the worst drought in more than a decade hit, a court order to protect an endangered fish cut off water to the valley's farmers, and an area larger than Los Angeles went fallow. Vaca now works one day a week while his family survives on welfare and food stamps. "It's hard, man," he says. "Everybody's broke."

The spring morning chill becomes a broil as Vaca and his fellow marchers slowly follow a two-lane road through parched hills. A man squatting next to an ice chest on the median doles out carne asada burritos. "I'm hungry," Vaca says with a wan smile as he stuffs one into his pants pocket and bites into another. He passes an ATV draped in an American flag, where Sharon Wakefield, an almond farmer, is resting her feet. She says she believes that the Mexicans and Central Americans who have joined the California March for Water are basically no different from her mother, who fled Oklahoma during the Great Depression to earn a pittance harvesting hay and cotton in the valley. Except this time, the state has even less to offer them: "We've got no water, no food, no future," she says.

The Central Valley, the thin, fertile band running down the middle of California, has long boasted the world's richest agricultural economy, reliably producing more than a quarter of the nation's fruits, nuts, and vegetables. But it's done so in defiance of ecological reality. The 70-year-old irrigation system that has pumped water into the otherwise arid valley is proving increasingly vulnerable to shifting weather patterns. It now appears that waterwise, 20th century California was an anomaly, a relatively wet period in the midst of a historical cycle of severe drought. And the changing climate will only magnify the problem: By the end of the century, scientists predict, Central California could experience temperatures rivaling Death Valley's and face the loss of 90 percent of the Sierra Nevada snowpack, the region's main water source. "Business as usual won't work in the future," says Eike Luedeling, an expert in plant sciences at the University of California-Davis, whose research shows that higher temperatures will likely decimate the state's $10 billion fruit and nut industry. "Especially for tree crops, adapting will require huge investments that probably a lot of small guys can't make anymore."

Apec leaders drop climate target

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 01:35:37 -0800

Nov 15

BBC - Leaders remain split on specifying targets
World leaders meeting in Singapore have said it will not be possible to reach a climate change deal ahead of next month's UN conference in Denmark.

After a two-day Asia-Pacific summit, they vowed to work towards an "ambitious outcome" in Copenhagen.

But the group dropped a target to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, which was outlined in an earlier draft.

Leaders also vowed to pursue a new strategy for growth after the world's worst economic crisis in decades.

They resolved to conclude the Doha round of global trade talks in 2010.

In a joint declaration issued at the end of their two-day annual summit, they said: "We firmly reject all forms of protectionism and reaffirm our commitment to keep markets open and refrain from raising new barriers to investment or to trade in goods and services."

They also agreed to keep stimulus spending in place until a recovery was seen.

Graham Censured for Sensible Climate Stance

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 20:22:11 -0800

Kate Sheppard | Charleston County, SC | November 11

Mother Jones - The Republican Party of Charleston County, S.C. on Monday voted to censure Sen. Lindsey Graham over his support for climate legislation and his willingness to work across party lines on the issue.

The Republican has often worked with Democrats in Congress, but Charleston County Chairwoman Lin Bennett says his work on climate legislation is the last straw.

The party resolution passed Monday says Graham has weakened the Republican brand. Bennett expects a similar resolution to be introduced at the state GOP convention next year.

Bennett called his views "out of step with the beliefs of Republican voters."

Why is Earth’s upper atmosphere cooling?

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 10:04:30 -0800

Moises Velasquez-Manoff | 11.10.09 | CSM Blog

Temperatures at the earth’s surface have increased by between 0.2 and 0.4 degrees C in the past 30 years. The vast majority of scientists attribute this warming trend to higher concentrations of greenhouse gases – CO2, methane, CFCs, and others – which warm both the earth’s surface and lower atmosphere by holding heat in.

But one of the seeming paradoxes of more greenhouse gases is that while they seem to warm the earth’s surface, they also seem to be cooling the higher layers of the atmosphere: Surface temperatures have gone up in recent decades, but they’ve declined to varying degrees in the stratosphere (above 20 km), the mesosphere (above 50 km), and the thermosphere (above 90 km).

In the lower and middle mesosphere, for example, temperatures have fallen by between 5 and 10 degrees C during the past three decades. And the outermost part of the atmosphere, around 350 km high — the so-called thermosphere — has, as would be expected by cooling, contracted.

(Here’s a review of these observed changes in Science, the journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

The science behind the observed stratospheric cooling is complex, but important to understand.

Some people cite this cooling as evidence that greenhouse gases aren’t warming and that human-induced climate change isn’t happening. But the conclusion, it seems, should be the opposite.

In 1989, scientists predicted that more greenhouse gases would cool the stratosphere.

Indeed, Venus, which many say has a “runaway” greenhouse effect — its atmosphere is 97 percent carbon dioxide and temperatures at its surface can reach 900 F. — has a stratosphere that’s four to five times cooler than ours.

It’s also worth remembering that Earth supports life as we know it only because of a greenhouse effect. Without some heat-trapping ability, Earth’s surface temperature should be, on average, around -0.4 F. Instead, it’s a nice 57 F.

So why is our stratosphere cooling?

As Dr. Elmar Uherek of the Max Planck Institute explains, human activity affects the stratosphere in two ways:

1. By ozone depletion.
2. By increasing carbon dioxide.

Climate change will melt snows of Kilimanjaro 'within 20 years'

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 20:20:50 -0800

Steve Connor | Nov 3

The Independent -

The snows of Mount Kilimanjaro – the highest mountain in Africa – may soon be falling on bare ground following a study showing that its ice cap is destined to disappear entirely within 20 years, due largely to climate change.

The vast ice fields of Kilimanjaro in Tanzania are melting at a faster pace than at any time over the past 100 years and at this rate they will be gone completely within two decades or even earlier according to one of the world's leading glaciologists.

A team led by Professor Lonnie Thompson of Ohio State University said that the latest assessment of Kilimanjaro's famous ice cap has confirmed that 85 per cent of the ice that covered the mountain in 1912 has been lost, and 26 per cent of the ice that was there in 2000 is now gone.

A series of cores drilled through the ice fields at different points on Kilimanjaro has revealed that the melting observed over the past few decades is unprecedented in nearly 12,000 years. The research also shows that that the current thinning of the ice cap is faster than when a devastating 300-year drought occurred 4,200 years ago, a period when very little snow fell on the mountain.

"The dramatic loss of Kilimanjaro's ice cover has attracted global attention. The three remaining ice fields on the plateau and the slopes are both shrinking laterally and rapidly thinning," the scientists write in a study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

If conditions persist, and warmer temperatures continue to melt more ice than falls in the form of snow, then there is a "strong likelihood that the ice field will disappear within a decade or two", the authors conclude.

Science and Politics downunder

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 01:20:49 -0800

Philanthropy is not a life style choice for most of Australia's rich and famous.
But Australian science, especially the federal Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO )got a major financial boost due to a 10 year struggle fighting with HP, Apple, Dell et al. over the invention of WiFi; that was settled back in April.

However, Australian politics and science remain closely related, and casting aspersions on the ruling parties attitude to global emissions is not kosher.

Coastal homes in Australia at risk from rising sea levels

Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:32:14 -0700

Kathy Marks | Oct 28

The Independent - Government report shocks country where 80 per cent of population lives on coast

Australia's love affair with the beach is in danger of being rudely terminated. A parliamentary report released yesterday suggests that the government may have to force people to abandon prime oceanfront homes along thousands of miles of coastline vulnerable to rising sea levels.

The report, published in the run-up to the Copenhagen summit on climate change in December, sent a shiver through a country where 80 per cent of the population lives on the coast. With more than 700,000 homes within two miles of the ocean and less than 20ft above sea level, rising seas – together with more frequent storm surges and higher tides – are a serious threat.

A parliamentary committee spent 18 months investigating the state of Australia's coastline, and MPs were shocked by what they found. Mal Washer, deputy chairman of the Joint Standing Committee on Climate Change, said yesterday: "There's little in reality left of our coast. It's all breakwaters or sandbags... It's a disaster."

Mr Washer said that popular beaches, such as those lining the Queensland Gold Coast, a popular tourist destination, would not exist if sand was not pumped on to them artificially.

The report, entitled The Time to Act is Now, calls for national guidelines to govern development in sensitive coastal areas, replacing the current piecemeal approach by local councils. Mr Washer told ABC radio that a line should be drawn around the coast, "and beyond that there should not be development".

Adapting Along the Road to Copenhagen

Fri, 23 Oct 2009 09:04:45 -0700

A few weeks ago, Barbara Boxer and John Kerry introduced the Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act, the long-awaited Senate version of the climate change bill that squeaked through the House in June. With the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen just nine weeks away, U.S. legislative action will be a key to successful global negotiations. Particularly, investment in international adaptation – the multilateral assistance to developing countries in order to withstand the impacts of climate change – is widely expected to be one of the central elements of the looming debate in Copenhagen. Whereas climate change mitigation policies aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, adaptation seeks to lessen the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of the most at-risk countries through disaster management and infrastructure capacity-building. Kerry has called international adaptation “part of the glue” holding together hopes of reaching a new global treaty to succeed the Kyoto Protocol. Still, investment in adaptation – at both the domestic and international levels – has been continuously overlooked.

The international security crises associated with climate change are dramatic and self-perpetuating. Drought, rising sea levels, and resource scarcity will lead to disease, mass migration, and political instability, ultimately causing fragile states to collapse into failed states. These cascading effects are intensified with the Earth’s population projected to reach nine billion by 2050. And in a cruel twist of irony, the most devastating effects will be felt in parts of the world that are least responsible for global climate change, specifically Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia.

In North Africa, subsistence farming will suffer a 20-40% reduction in crop yield due to prolonged drought and desertification. Drought will hit the Middle East hard as well, a region that is already home to 6% of the world’s population but just 2% of the Earth’s water supply. And with 60% of the Middle East’s bodies of water lying trans-boundary, the stage is set for conflict. As John Kerry said, “a demographic boom and a shrinking water supply will only tighten the squeeze on a region that doesn’t need another reason to disagree violently.”

In South Asia, the Indus river system, running from India through Kashmir and into Pakistan, may become seasonal as a result of the melting Siachen Glacier, thereby destroying the region’s agriculture and threatening the livelihood of 75% of Pakistan’s 160 million people.

Bangladesh is perhaps the most classic example of the devastation that climate change will cause. A sea level rise of one meter, as is expected in coming decades, will displace 20 million people in low-lying coastal areas of the South Asian country. Salt water intrusion will have further indirect impacts by crippling the rice crops. The Minister of Disaster Management, Dr. Muhammed Abdur Razzaque, has pleaded, to no avail, for $5 billion over the next five years from the international community to develop coastal defense mechanisms similar to those in the Netherlands, although that sum would still almost certainly amount to just a fraction of what Bangladesh needs.

All told, there will be about 200 million environmentally displaced people (EDPs) by 2050, mostly in areas of the world that are already among the most politically unstable. Needless to say, the importance – and cost – of adapting to these changes is enormous. Estimated funding needs range from $9-20 billion per year from 2010-2020 according to ClimateWorks’ Project Catalyst to as much as $40–170 billion annually, according to the most recent estimate by the UNFCCC. Preliminary results of the World Bank’s Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) study – the “most in-depth analysis of the economics of adaptation to climate change to date” – estimates costs in the order of $75-100 billion per year from 2010-2050.

The U.S. would likely be called on to provide about 25% of the global total under an international agreement, based on existing international institutions and funding efforts. This figure is also roughly proportionate to the U.S. share of historical global emissions since the beginning of the industrial era (the U.S. has emitted about 90-95 billion metric tons of carbon since 1800). But Waxman-Markey allocates just 1% of the allowances from 2012 to 2021 under its cap-and-trade scheme toward international adaptation efforts. This translates to about $700-900 million per year. Even by the most modest funding projections, the numbers fall far short. This prompted an unusual coalition of environmental and faith-based NGOs to write a letter addressed to Senators Kerry and Lugar urging them to dedicate at least an additional 2% of allowances for international adaptation (which would raise the total investment to 3%). Yet the Boxer-Kerry bill is, so far, silent on precisely how much would be allocated to international adaptation.

If the U.S. delegation arrives in Copenhagen without a clear commitment to adaptation it would present a major setback for an international treaty. Copenhagen is not the end of the road for global climate change negotiations, but it is a crucial chance for real progress. With 50,000 delegates from 190 nations expected in Copenhagen, inability to make substantial strides would be a disastrous missed opportunity, especially when considering the Kyoto deal took eight years to finish and the Copenhagen negotiations are less than a year old. If a new international framework is not ratified by 2012, Kyoto will fall away without a successor agreement. If the Senate does not take strong action now, it would reduce U.S. leverage and send a poor message to the international community. Ambassador John Bruton, head of the European Commission Delegation to the United States, warned that inaction “would open the United States to the charge that it does not take its international commitments seriously, and that these commitments will always take second place to domestic politics.” He added, “the United States emits 25 percent of all the greenhouse gases that the Conference is trying to reduce. Is the US Senate really expecting all the other countries to make a serious effort on climate change at the Copenhagen Conference in the absence of a clear commitment from the United States?”

Now is the time for decisive action on the domestic front. A successful global treaty will be built around a core of strong U.S. legislation that, in particular, addresses the unavoidable needs of international adaptation. And the pressure is on from the international community. The U.S. never ratified the Kyoto Protocol, but both China and India did. Yesterday, India’s environment minister called the Senate bill a “measly” effort. A recent poll from WorldPublicOpinion.org found that the U.S. public ranked dead last out of 19 countries when asked how high a priority should be placed on addressing climate change. The developing world needs a powerful and convincing signal of commitment from the United States. If the U.S. arrives in Copenhagen dragging its feet, it will forfeit the credibility needed to play a leadership role in the negotiations.

Above all, climate change must be treated not as a national security issue or as a regional security issue, but as a human security issue. Instability in any part of the world is a threat to the United States. The longer the U.S. and the world delays action on international adaptation, the deeper the hole we will find ourselves in when we inevitably start to climb out.

To see more articles on foreign policy and climate change, see http://blog.psaonline.org/

Baffin Island reveals dramatic scale of Arctic climate change

Tue, 20 Oct 2009 01:29:14 -0700

Steve Connor | Oct 20

The Independent - Study delves back into 200,000 years of history to demonstrate the devastating impact of global warming

A frozen lake on a remote island off Canada's northern coast has yielded remarkable insights into how the Arctic climate has changed dramatically over 50 years.

Muddy sediment from the bottom of the lake, some of it 200,000 years old, shows that Baffin Island, one of the most inhospitable places on Earth, has undergone an unprecedented warming over the past half-century. Scientists believe the temperature rise is probably due to human-induced warming. It has more than offset a natural cooling trend which began 8,000 years ago.

Instead of cooling at a rate of minus 0.C every 1,000 years – a trend that was expected to continue for another 4,000 years because of well-known changes to the Earth's solar orbit – Baffin Island, like the rest of the Arctic, has begun to get warmer, especially since 1950. The Arctic is now about 1.C warmer than it was in 1900, confirming that the region is warming faster than most other parts of the world.

Bad Science and Bad Economics

Sun, 18 Oct 2009 14:58:35 -0700

I highly recommend the debate that is going on between Paul Krugman and the men who wrote Freakonomics about global warming. There are lots of other people involved, but the best place to start is here. Then read this post and this post and this post. Make sure you follow as many links as possible, including the replies from the authors of Freakonomics themselves. It's very interesting reading. Krugman, as usual, is devastating.

Maldives cabinet meets underwater to stress threat from rising sea levels

Sat, 17 Oct 2009 05:46:08 -0700

Andrew Buncombe | Oct 7/Oct 17

The Independent - The president of the Maldives is desperate for the world to know how seriously his government takes the threat of climate change and rising sea levels to the survival of his country. He wants his ministers to know as well.

To this end, Mohamed Nasheed has organised an underwater cabinet meeting and told all his ministers to get in training for the sub-aqua session. Six metres beneath the surface, the ministers will ratify a treaty calling on other countries to cut greenhouse emissions.

Ahead of the meeting, scheduled for 17 October, cabinet members have been squeezing into wet-suits and practising their underwater skills. The President was not present at the first session, held over the weekend, because he is already a qualified diver.

Mr Nasheed, a former political prisoner who was elected President last year, has made the issue of climate change one of his most pressing priorities. Earlier this year, The Independent revealed his plan to transform the Maldives into the world's first carbon neutral country within 10 years. The leader of a nation made up of 1,200 atolls, 80 per cent of which are no more than a metre above sea level, he has also established a fund to seek an alternative homeland, possibly in Sri Lanka, India or Australia for its 330,000 citizens.

UPDATE Oct 17: Maldives cabinet makes a splash
The government of the Maldives has held a cabinet meeting underwater to highlight the threat of global warming to the low-lying Indian Ocean nation. w/video

Vaclav Klaus: How Czech president is fighting on to stop Europe in its tracks

Thu, 15 Oct 2009 08:47:17 -0700

Ian Traynor | Oct 15

The Guardian - For a man standing alone between Europe and its future, Vaclav Klaus is playing hard to get. Last week a trip to Albania, this week Russia; the Czech president has performed a vanishing act just when he has the rest of Europe dancing to his tune.

He relishes being at the centre of a showdown. But it appears he is currently more interested in selling copies of his tract on global warming denial.

Last week, as a panicky campaign was launched in Berlin, Paris, Brussels, Stockholm, and Prague to try to force Europe's biggest renegade into line, Klaus was dining by the Adriatic.

For five days he refused to return phone calls from Fredrik Reinfeldt, the Swedish prime minister and current EU president saddled with the Klaus emergency. Jan Fischer, the Czech Republic's caretaker prime minister, has an even less enviable task, as mediator between Klaus and the rest of Europe's leaders. But Klaus won't give him the time of day. Fischer admitted he had managed to get him briefly on the phone, but not to arrange a meeting.

Klaus was in Albania to promote Blue Planet in Green Shackles, his book arguing that the only thing man-made about climate change is that it is a myth. Today he decamped to Moscow, promoting a Russian edition of the book.

No agreement at Bangkok climate talks

Sat, 10 Oct 2009 10:50:27 -0700

Sarah Clarke | Bangkok | October 9

ABC News (AU) - The United Nations climate talks in Bangkok have failed to deliver consensus between the world's developing and developed nations.

The meeting finishes today after two weeks of intense negotiations.

The gathering of more than 190 nations was hoped to deliver the foundations for a new global climate agreement to be negotiated in Copenhagen in December.

Instead, the world's two biggest polluters are deadlocked, with the United States calling for the existing Kyoto protocol to be abandoned, and a new treaty to be discussed. China disagrees.

Deadlock in Bangkok

Mail & Guardian (NZ), By Yolandi Groenewald, October 10

Tensions in the United Nations reflected the brooding humidity outside the conference room in Bangkok this week, as climate change talks between developing and developed countries ground to an acrimonious deadlock.

No deal was expected at the talks, which ended on Friday, and negotiators will have to slug it out again in a month's time in Barcelona before the big meeting in Copenhagen at year-end. Just a week of formal negotiations remain before Copenhagen -- and delegates were feeling the pressure.

South Africa's delegation was in a sombre mood. "In the current climate a deal in Copenhagen will be extremely difficult," said South African negotiator Joanne Yawitch.

South Africa was firmly in the corner of the G77-plus-China group, which represents 130 mainly developing countries.

[...]

The US, which has not signed Kyoto, wants to move away from a legally binding international agreement with specific time frames to one in which individual states will determine emissions policy.