Tag - Democratic Party

Sequestration Sorrows for Extremist Republicans

May you have incompetent, offensive enemies. 

pewimpact

President Obama and the congressional Democrats have the luck of the Irish, truly.  They’ve already won the Battle of the Fiscal Cliff due to the good judgment of the people.  That judgement takes facts into consideration.  The sequestration process is a blunt instrument wielded by a Frankenstein process that accounts for nothing sensible in terms of solving the main concern of the public; the seriously flawed, destructive economic cycle that is dragging us to a place nobody sensible wants to go. The PEW survey to the left shows that a majority think the economy in general (60%) and the military in particular (55%)  will suffer due to this pathetic process of histrionic policy making.

That puts the wisdom of the people in line with the judgement of over 95% of leading economists surveyed recently who say that “growth is likely to be negatively affected by the automatic federal spending cuts that are scheduled to kick in Friday.”  It makes sense.  The economy is weak, unemployment, all those out of work seeking work, is around 22%, and many citizens are one paycheck away from their own fiscal cliff.

Here are some highly revealing polls and  headlines from around the country late Wednesday, early today.

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The Deal: Various Responses

Zaid Jilani:

Because the payroll tax cut is expiring and the Make Work Pay tax cut is not coming back, most working Americans will also see a tax increase. The most galling thing is that 98 percent of Americans will actually see a larger tax increase than some of the richest Americans. Working with our friends at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, we compiled the following chart to demonstrate this:

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Brand New Yr Retro

Amanda Marcotte re: the need for liberals to finally capitalize on the emerging progressive zeitgeist:

The road ahead, for liberals, is long and hard. Our social safety net and investment in ordinary working people who actually run this country is in tatters, decimated by years of Republican efforts and Democrats letting (or even making) it happen, incorrectly believing that’s what the country wants. The Affordable Care Act was saved last night, and it’s got a lot of good stuff in it, but it needs to be built upon. (But if we didn’t pass it, we couldn’t build on it, something that a lot of people who attack Obama from the left fail to understand.) We need to continue to push for a public option and lowering of the Medicare age to 55. We need to push for more government spending to get this economy healthy again. We need serious legislation to address climate change, and we need to start investing in infrastructure to protect ourselves against future disasters like Hurricane Sandy. We need to get serious about liberalizing our immigration laws. We need to help expand access to abortion and contraception. There’s a lot that needs to be done.

But last night proved—and I hope Democrats are paying attention—that this is what the country wants. We’re not a bunch of conservatives who only vote for Democrats by accident. This is a liberal nation. It’s only going to become more liberal. Democrats can move to the left and they will be rewarded at the polls. After all, conservatives have been calling Obama a “socialist” for four years now, and the public basically responded by saying, “Sounds good to me!” We’re liberals. Time to start governing like it.

Not so fast, says John Judis:

There are two different systems that are at work in American politics. The first is the electoral system. It was on display last night, as Barack Obama won re-election, and the Democrats held onto the Senate and the Republicans the House. The second is the pressure system–a term used by the great political scientist E. E. Schattschneider to describe the competition between lobbies and political organizations to influence not just who wins elections, but what politicians do in office.

[…]

While retaining some of the New Deal white working class in the North and far West, the Democrats have built a largely post-industrial coalition of blacks, Latinos, Asians, working women, professionals, and youth. Its outlook is socially liberal, egalitarian, and supportive of positive (as opposed to “big”) government. The Republicans are increasingly the party of the white evangelicals, white Southerners, nouveaux riches suburbanites, and narrow business interests opposed to government taxes and regulation. The Democratic coalition is growing; the Republican shrinking. Republicans can still win national elections, but only when a Democrat stumbles badly.

The pressure system, however,  looks very different. Think back to the pressure system at the end of Franklin Roosevelt’s first term. There was enormous ferment on the left–from a growing industrial labor movement to Huey Long’s populism. Republicans were shell-shocked, and business was divided and discredited. In 2012, Obama and Democrats can command the loyalty of single interest groups on the environment, gay marriage and gun control. There are also some internet-based campaign groups. But the only group that can provide money and volunteers and that can battle for a comprehensive agenda between elections is the labor movement. And it is on the decline and on the defensive.

By contrast, the Republican pressure system has, if anything, grown more powerful over the last two decades. It includes major business organizations, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and National Federation of Independent Business, political organizations like the Americans for Tax Reform, the Club for Growth, Freedomworks, and Americans for Prosperity, and a loose network of activist groups identified with the Tea Party or the religious right. Their power to raise money and wield influence has been enhanced by the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision.

[…]

In states and congressional districts where a Republican is expected to win, they have backed the most conservative candidates. But they have also punished Republicans like Lugar by backing primary challengers. That tactic cost the Republicans a chance to win back the Senate in 2010, and it cost them the Indiana seat this year, but it also has put the fear of retribution in elected Republicans who contemplate compromising with Democrats. It has increased the likelihood of gridlock in Washington.

IOW, don’t hold yr breath in anticipation of a thundering herd of Democratic ponycorns looming on the legislative horizon (alas). Kevin Drum nails it: “It’s going to be four years of faux drama and trench warfare, and that just doesn’t seem very appealing.”

Related: Steve M: ‘Why the Election Ought to Break the GOP Fever (And Why it Won’t)‘ h/t Brad Delong

The October Surprise: Majority of Outside Spending Likely to Come in Final Month

by Robert Maguire

(Originally posted by OpenSecrets Blog, republished under a Creative Commons license)

With less than a month to go until the election, outside spending continues to be the campaign money story of 2012.
Pretty much any way you slice it, it’s way up in the 2012 cycle. The total spent by non-party outside groups has far eclipsed spending at comparable points in previous cycles, and if this cycle is like those earlier ones, the majority of total 2012 non-party outside spending is likely to come in the final weeks leading up to Election Day.  Read More

Segmenting the Libertarian Vote: Tea Partiers, Civil Libertarians, and Libertarian Independents

by David Kirby

(Originally posted by Cato @ Liberty, republished under a Creative Commons license)

Last week, I posted data from the latest Reason-Rupe poll showing 77 percent of libertarians supporting Romney—the highest percentage share of the libertarian vote of any Republican presidential candidate since 1980.

Many commenters on Twitter and Facebook were horrified! Surely, many reasoned, this large vote share is a measure of antipathy for Obama rather than affinity for Romney. Others commented that any libertarian supporting Romney doesn’t deserve to be considered a “true” libertarian.

I wanted to reflect on this last comment. Who should count as a libertarian?  Read More