serious fallout from Taiwan President Chen's New Years speech has now hit...President Bush has been briefed on Chen's remarks Sunday that he was "considering" abolishing the National Unification Council, that it was time to press for Taiwan, under that name, to be admitted to the United Nations, and that he might also seek to amend the Constitution prior to the 2008 presidential election (on Taiwan, as in the US).

Chen had previously promised not to call for ANY of these things, since, the US had assumed, Chen had "learned his lesson" from 2003. That's when similar remarks threatened US-China relations at a time when the White House was, as it still is, defining most foreign policy through the prism of how it affects cooperation in the war on terrorism, and specifically with China, resolving the nuclear crisis with North Korea.

So when you add in the absolutely central role China, with Russia, is now playing in keeping Iran from escalating to a possible military crisis in the Middle East, and you can see why there is absolutely no inclination by Bush or the National Security Council to sympathize with Chen's personal political issues.

Currently, it is clearly the US view that all three of Chen's Sunday remarks, while conditional, would constitute a unilateral change in the status quo which keeps the often tense peace between China and Taiwan, and thus adds an unacceptable risk to US-China cooperation on "larger issues".  While it can be argued that Chen was basically indulging in very domestic Taiwan-focused politicking, the Administration is not buying that, although they have asked for clarification, sources indicate.

For all of these reasons, then, President Bush is said to be "personally furious", along the lines of "he did it AGAIN, after what happened last time?"

"The last time", Bush ended up feeling he had no choice but to write a stern personal letter to Chen reminding him of the facts of life...a humiliating move which was followed up by Taiwan's worst nightmare...Bush stood next to then-Premier of China Wen, and repeated his opposition to Taiwan independence, and any unilateral threats to the status quo.

Now Taiwan faces a repeat of this, up to and including the threat of Bush standing next to President Hu Jin-tao, when he arrives in April, and making similar remarks.

Observers report Taiwanese diplomats today seeking guidance from both the NSC and State on what will calm the waters, but it does not sound like the US side is making things easy for them.  In addition to demanding a background explanation for the domestic political context, the US wants to hear Chen himself repeat his promises NOT to do the things he discussed Sunday.

In the often arcane catechism of Cross Strait "dialogue", Chen will be expected to repeat "The Four Noes"...specific things he and Taiwan will not do.

While Chen, by now, can see the gravity of this situation, concerned observers worry that his basic focus on legacy, and holding off the KMT in the 2008 elections, makes it by no means predictable that he can bring himself to "satisfy" the US (and Chinese?) demands this time.