Peak Oil: Not Sustainable But Insatiable


Sean-Paul Kelley | San Antonio | June 7

The Agonist - This is the third and final part of my interview with Matthew R. Simmons, author of Twilight in the Desert. Part one is here and part two is here.

SPK:  Are you familiar with the report, Exxon's Outlook for energy? From my reading of the report it said that practically all the future production increases in the world are going to have to come from OPEC. With what you are telling me and what you have written in your book, what you are telling me that it's not going to happen.

It has a one percent chance of happening. Maybe half a percent, really.

SPK:  What's the solution? A couple of brief ideas.

MRS:

 I think they have OPEC going to 50mbd by 2030. That means that we must have Saudi Arabia at between 20-35mbd.



SPK:
You categorically don't see that as happening, do you?



MRS:
Yeah, the chance of that is less than one percent. Now when you get less than one percent it doesn't matter what it is. I also think the risk of actually producing at 10-12mbd has a chance of maybe five percent. Again, I hate to use those numbers but it is just extremely low. The safest production profile for Saudi Arabia over the next decade is to lower their current production by a third to 50%.



SPK:
 Why would you lower production?



MRS:
It's called conservation. The lower the rate you produce any pressurized oilfield then the longer you can produce it at a sustainable rate and you will recover more oil without having to revert to artificial lift.



SPK:
 Ok, little funny here. I thought when you said conservation I sensed a little glibness but now I understand. You are talking about the longevity of the oil field.



MRS:
 This use to be very common in the industry in the 60s and 70s. But now when you hear the word conservation people think you mean not driving an SUV. Being a conservationist in the oil industry meant producing at a gentle rate of production for a long, long period of time. And once prices collapsed you couldn't afford to do that unless you were you a really wealthy family. There are some examples in Texas of some really wealthy families that decided years ago they would never produce a field over a certain amount and they are still producing at the same amount today.



SPK:
During the Asian financial crisis and the resulting collapse in worldwide oil prices, it was a demand side issue, I know a couple of people here in town that just stopped producing. They stopped because they weren't making any money as it cost them more to pump the oil out than it brought in the market.



MRS:
 The Cullen family in Houston, old man Cullen was one of the great wildcatters of the 30s and 40s, I don't know when his era finally passed but his great discovery was the O'Connor field and I was told a few weeks ago that they did a study back in the 60s realizing that if the O'Connor field production collapses their wealth comes to an end. And so they did a very detailed study and decided to produce it at 40,000 barrels a day and it is still producing 40,000 barrels a day. Had they gone to 200,000-300,000 it would have been over in the 70s.



SPK:
 That being said, what do you say about the demand side. You've talked about supply side, a way of reducing production so that you have a sustainable oil well, now lets talk about the demand side?



MRS:
 The current model is not sustainable. It is not sustainable but it is insatiable.



SPK:
 How do I just know that that soundbite is going to be around for a while?



MRS:
 Perhaps.



SPK:
 Joking aside, what's the solution?



MRS:
Once it is clear that Saudi Arabia has passed sustainable peak production because once that happens then the world has categorically passed sustainable peak production.

One of the things we need to do is understand the true value of a really scarce resource. You know, we wasted most of the great oil, by giving it away. And get people appreciating that oil and natural gas need to be at prices that are vastly higher than what they are today. And once they get to that people won't get disturbed or mad. They'll accept it.

It's interesting the steps we can take that really aren't exactly as draconian as they sound on the surface. You got to fix the transportation market. 70% of every barrel of oil used in the world today is used to transportation. But there are some really interesting fixes. If you put all of the goods we now move by long haul trucks and get them off the highways and put them on the rails that has an energy efficiency of between five and ten fold, as opposed to five or ten percent. And that is not an impossible mission from a five to seven year time if we had to do it. There is a huge side benefit to that. By eliminating the trucks on the road we actually make a bug dent on traffic congestion. Traffic congestion is public enemy numbers 1 through 8 on passenger car fuel efficiency. And so we can have all of these Priuses and hybrids, don't get me wrong they are great. I drive a fabulous new Diesel Mercedes and I get, on the open road, as long as there is no traffic, I can get almost 50 miles to the gallon. But when I am in stop-and-go traffic I get between 5-11 miles to the gallon. You have to address traffic congestion and you have to address some of these areas where there are magnitudes of savings and then we have to learn to do things like distributed work. The miracle of the internet and working online. It took three months to get my firm online. Rather than have people drive for two hours in the afternoon and two hours in the evening we will actually adjust to people working in their neighborhood for their company.

And we need to learn how to make things closer to home.

Then there is agriculture. Food models. Apples sold in the summer in the UK 85-90% of them comes from New Zealand. That's a 22,000 mile journey for an apple! If we went back to growing our food closer to home which is easily done, we could help our economy, get better apples because they are local, and we save enormous amounts on money on energy/transport costs. We can make those changes in a 5-10 year period of time without going into an energy war.



SPK:
Do you suggest taxing the price of oil? Would you suggest a tariff or something along those lines?



MRS:
 No, because you just basically make it look like the only reason there are high prices for energy are from taxes. I think there is a whole different issue. And that is what do we do with the abnormally high wealth and revenue this created. We need to make damn sure that the money is spent for good purposes.

For instance, in the United States we have a pipeline system that is delivering 21mbd of finished petroleum products and about 9mbd equivalent natural gas that is so utterly old and rusty that it cannot be maintained. Over the next five years we need to take this fantastically high revenue from this and reinvest it in rebuilding the pipeline system. Because what would really be a problem is that we not only have falling supply but a collapsed pipeline system. That would be the largest construction job in the history of the United States and it would touch every state. I think this would be a trillion dollar job. It would be good for and help our economy and wonderful for blue-collar jobs in a way that would tolerate the impact of $150-200 barrel prices.

SPK: You think that oil is going to be at $150-200 a barrel? It's gonna happen?



MRS:
Yeah. On an inflation-adjusted basis the price we paid in the 70s was over a $100 a barrel. And that was when we had far more world wide supply than we have today. And we had a drilling system that was relatively new. The whole system is so utterly old that it needs to be replaced. There are 3,000 drilling rigs in the world, about 600 offshore and 2,400 on land. And the average age of the rigs onshore is about 30 years. The average age offshore is about 22 years. If they don't rapidly start re-building new rigs they are going to compound a whole `nother problem.

There are lots of ways to spend the money generated from oil. We might just have to actually have some tax policies because what we cannot tolerate is the owners of the oil just putting it in their pockets and getting even more utterly wealthy.



SPK:
That is a very interesting comment. I do not think I have ever heard someone that works in the oil industry living in Houston say something so blasphemous! I'm glad to hear it, but very surprised.



MRS:
Well, first of all, I am not an ideologue, I am a realist.



SPK:
 Along those lines, do you think there are more people in your industry who are beginning to feel the way you do?



MRS:
I'd say it is probably now somewhere between 75 and 100 hundred of us. But that's out of a population of, oh, 2, 2 and a half million.



SPK:
 That isn't very many.



MRS:
It's better than the ten or fifteen of us it was five years ago. The Swedish Academy of Royal Science have now held three hearings in the last two weeks and the first hearing, I was one of the four participants of the first one and they are going to come out with a major paper in the next few weeks addressing the issue of Peak Oil. And the Swedish Academy of Science is the group that picks the Nobel Prizes.



SPK:
 Pretty serious crowd.



MRS:
 And the reality is that this is now the work of about 300 people. I obviously think this is just as important as people being aware of the possibility of war in 1938-39.



SPK:
As you are labeled as an investment banker I want to ask you who is going to profit from this and where should investors look to put their money?



MRS:
 The money that needs to be spent on this problem will create some very healthy companies. It won't be good for all the companies. I think the majors have themselves in a very serious box. They are too big. And they cannot acquire with high oil prices. I don't like the majors. Over the next year, the majors will do well in the stock market, but I think being small is beautiful. If you are small you are still nimble enough to have real growth. The service industry, are the foot soldiers and the refiners are the toll gate of being able to create a stable crude stream into high quality products. Like Valero. Any of the independent refiners, too.



SPK:
 Last question: Any ideas on the infrastructure rebuild play?



MRS:
 No specific names, because of the new rules. Being too stock specific can get me into trouble. But it is a good group.



SPK:
 Mr. Simmons, I really appreciate you taking the time out of your busy schedule and I hope that you sell lots of books. Thank you very much.

MRS: Well, there has never been a book published like this that is un-ideological and I hope that it is a serious wake-up call.

Thanks for your time as well.


Sean Paul Kelley June 7, 2005 - 1:52am
( categories: News )

The problem with alternative energy sources now is that oil is too cheap.

He says no taxes on oil. I disagree. There are already huge profits in producing oil. I don't believe private industry can be trusted to make the changes we need to make.

I say tax the oil until other technologies can compete and use all the revenue to create more efficent systems like the rail system he advocates, alternative energy sources etc.

We must do this now. Once the oil is gone, it will be too late.

Don June 7, 2005 - 9:17am

Don you say "The problem with alternative energy sources now is that oil is too cheap."  Simmons' point is, that is soon to be history.  

He makes the very cogent point that an oil tax would be counterproductive today.  It would detract from the political will to confront the real problems. A new idea, to me, and I agree!

marcf June 7, 2005 - 11:26am

Thank you for conducting and posting this interview.

Rick June 7, 2005 - 11:31am

He said: "There are lots of ways to spend the money generated from oil. We might just have to actually have some tax policies because what we cannot tolerate is the owners of the oil just putting it in their pockets and getting even more utterly wealthy."

Sean Paul Kelley June 7, 2005 - 12:18pm

I know there's a lot of material dealing with how enhanced recovery techniques can cause production for a field to collapse (can't say that I know much about it, but I know that much), but what's the mechanism by which reduced pumping causes fields to remain viable longer? [I'm presuming that this longevity is in excess of simple consumption (i.e., it's not a question of 50K bbld over twice as long as 100K bbld).] Is it simply a matter of oil flow within the reservoir, as determined by the permeability of the geology? Sorry to be a pain, but having tried googling this one, it's clear that I don't know enought about the issue to frame an effective search.

Thanks for a very interesting interview, BTW.

JustPlainDave June 7, 2005 - 12:18pm

Sean - a really fine job on the interview - you kept it away from politics and so did he, and that makes a real difference

I didn't see Oil Storm on Fox, but from what I heard it was like Independence Day without the aliens.  We (as a country) are not going to even get serious on this until we get past the head-in-the-ground mentality, and listening to Simmons is a start.

Now if only he got some coverage - oops, I think the Jackson jury is breaking for lunch - gotta go.

fatbear June 7, 2005 - 12:59pm

Sean-Paul

A very informative interview.  Just another data point on my list of reasons for following this site.  I passed on to the EnergyBulletin website a pointer to the post and they put a comment and link to it in their news summary.  Good stuff.  Badly needed.

pamur June 7, 2005 - 2:39pm

I don't think a big push for intermodal freight is quite the panacea pictured by Mr. Simmons. The average length of haul in the trucking industry has been on the decline for some time now. Right now its in the ballpark of 200 miles for truckload carriers.  By the time the shipment is routed to and from the rail connections most of the fuel savings are lost.

Also Truck Traffic congestion in the cities might get worse. Intead of the truck routing from outside the metro area directly to the delivery point, the truck travels through town to the rail yard then from the rail yard back through town to the destination. The once it is unloaded the empty container will be loaded (hopefully near where it was unloaded) and travel again through town to the rail. Moving to a greater Intermodal bias in long distance freight might help some corridors but the main improvement would be on Interstates between towns rather than in urban areas where congestion is the fuel economy killer.

There is definitely room for improvement. Right now much of the container freight flowing from California to the Notheast has to make a rubber tire movement from one railyard to another in Chicago. Intermodal today is strongest on a few routes where the rail has a very stong presence. The rails will not only need to add capacity, but also improve their ability to track and handle freight (transit times are getting better but the trailers often are damaged by the rail, OK for paper rolls, not OK for high value cargo).

BobtheTomato June 11, 2005 - 4:35am

but also will create even much greater profits than now exist.

And the profits are huge right now. So big in fact, that those with oil will soon own everything.

By one fashion or another, a portion of this wealth needs to be earmarked for changes we need to make and there is no private company in the world with the resources or the will to make these changes.

Right now gas costs about $6 a gallon in most of Europe. We get it for $2. I think a dollar a gallon is appropriate with the requirement that every dime go to alternative energy or more efficient uses of what we now have. We all will benefit in the long run.

We can get by now without it, but we are selling our children's futures.

Pay now, or pay later.

Don June 7, 2005 - 12:15pm

Oh well.

Don June 7, 2005 - 12:41pm

From my limited experience with oil, but I do know a little, reducing the production keeps the pressure in the well relatively high so the oil comes out naturally as opposed to injecting water to create artficial pressure.

You've seen the old photos of spindletop and what not. They're gushers because of the pressure in the well. As the production inxcreases and you pull more oil out of the well the pressure decreases makuing it harder to get the oil out.

Does this help?

Sean Paul Kelley June 7, 2005 - 12:34pm

I'm glad you liked the interview. It was fun and I learned quite a bit myself. He was really fun to interview and it is a shame I cannot include the tone with which he spoke. He's got an oilmans sardonic wit that just doesn't come through real well on paper, er, bytes, that is.

Sean Paul Kelley June 7, 2005 - 12:36pm

are under pressure. If this pressure is released too fast, then the driving mechanism is lost. Horizontal wells can be useful for a time, but even they require some pressure to get the oil to move to the bore hole so it can be extracted.

By bleeding the field slowly and maintaining the pressure in the formation, a more efficient movement of the oil results.

This mass bleeding was done in the Austin Chalk around the nearby town of Luling, Texas. They punched holes every few feet and let them rip. It is estimated that a large per-centage of the oil is still in the ground there, (I've heard numbers like 85%), but cannot be be retrieved without spending a barrel's worth of energy (or close to it) to remove a barrel of oil.

Don June 7, 2005 - 12:36pm

I'm not an oil expert but I did once do a paper on "produced water", a technical term for all the other stuff that comes up with oil, plus I'm from one of them filthy rich oil nations, which means I have fairly solid general background knowledge on oil.

As others posted, oil fields need to be pressurised to produce oil, otherwise the oil wont flow up the drill hole. Obviously, when you produce oil, you reduce the pressure, and the trick is to maintain pressure for as long as possible. But it's also very important exactly what you're pumping up.

A typical oil field is in porous rock under a layer of dense rock shaped like an upside down U. Gas (propane,etc) collect at the top of the reservoir, then underneath comes the oil, then comes water. That is all due to gravity, lighter elements on top.

When you drill, you try to extract the oil first, if you take the gas(i.e. propane, etc) first you loose pressure to quick and the oil may become unrecoverable. So you drill through/past the gas layer into the oil layer. (and do the gas once the oil is mostly gone)

In the beginning, you produce very pure oil (say 90%). But as an oil field grows old, you pump up more and more water (which isn't actually only water, but also a lot of nasty stuff, like uranium, reservoir chemicals, heavy metals, micro oil droplets, etc). A mature field can easily produce 10% oil and the rest produced water. Produced water is of course expensive to pump, expensive to separate, reduces pressure just as much as oil, is very bad for the environment (it's usually quite radioactive), and can normally not be reinjected into the well (it is not a clean fluid and will normally clog up things)

If you produce an oil field to fast, you will create large pressure differences within the reservoir, and reduce the natural "sorting" of gravity and pressure. Thus, rather than having inflow of oil from the side, you may end up sucking water from below, or just mixing up the oil and water to much. It also takes a lot of time for oil to be "washed out" of porous rock (and be replaced by water). Pump to quickly, and you end up replacing the oil in the "veins and arteries" of the rock with water, but much of the oil locked in finely porous rock will remain, locked in because it can't easily escape into the now water- filled "veins and arteries".

Worst, however, are problems caused by injection drilling. Injection will help rebuild pressure and keep the flow high, but injected liquid will eventually find it's way into the pumped oil itself, and once you start injecting you'll find that you get an ever-increasing part of injection liquid in your well production. Plus, the increased pressure will help mix up water and oil, plus it will also push a lot of oil AWAY from the well/into more pourous rock rather than out of the rock and towards the well.

OK, hope that wasn't to boring and maybe even helped answer your question a bit (and don't forget I'm not an oil engineer)    

incy June 7, 2005 - 6:58pm

although our answers aren't much different. thanks Don!

Sean Paul Kelley June 7, 2005 - 12:39pm

glad you liked it and stick around. There is lots of good stuff here and lots and lots of great people!

Sean Paul Kelley June 7, 2005 - 1:01pm

What you have described might be the case in one area and not in another.

The earth is layered and each formation has unique properties. My dad is a geologist and has devoted his life to the study of this and still learns new things as time goes on. Like you, I don't know a hell of a lot about it.

But as a general rule, oil in my part of the world is trapped in porous rock, (but not always) and is retrievable only near fault lines where the structures have been fractured.

Exceptions include serpentine plugs and seas of oil contained in sands like those of Saudi Arabia.

A myriad of problems await those that try to extract the stuff from the ground.

The pressure you speak of is not necessary needed only to get the oil up the bore hole, it is necessary to move the oil through the formation and to the bore hole.

Some formations (clays) will swell with the presence of water and seal off the oil.

You may ruin one zone by allowing the fluid from another to comingle with another, or one zone may rob the pressure or the fluid from another. Remember that you are working thousands of feet below the surface through a tiny hole and there are lots of surprises waiting.

Corrosive chemicals eat the pipe and equipment. Holes develop. Maybe something another person does miles away destroys your well.

Many potentially productive fields have been ruined by poor or misguided management and may be lost forever.  

For years all the gas was and still is vented off in wells. Shortsideness--people either not understanding or not caring--just wanting to get what they could as fast as they could without conisidering future consequences are at fault. Or the ignorant (which includes all of us to a degree).

And now people like this run the country.

Don June 8, 2005 - 9:33am

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