The short answer is nobody seems to know for sure, not even the Pakistani's. Agonist editor Candy has been posting prodigiously on the region, but there is so much going on and so many interests involved the pieces of information appear disparate.

As luck would have it, I found two fascinating articles on the matter which, honestly, raise more questions than they answer, but are fascinating nonetheless.

Of the two read Pakistan: Unveiling the Mystery of Balochistan Insurgency first. It's in two parts. With a lead like this how can one resist?

Deception and treachery. Live and let die. The ultimate zero sum game. Repetition of bloody history: Call it what you may, something is happening in the Pakistani province of Balochistan that defies comprehension on any conventional scale.

It's written by four journalists who were assisted by dozens of associates as they covered 5000 kilometers in seven weeks, single mindedly focused on one question; What is happening in Balochistan?   Their take on it:

"[I]f the parts have any proportional resemblance to the whole, it is a frightening and mind-boggling picture.

But it gets even better than that. You'll love the cloak-and-dagger aspect, but I won't spoil it here.

For added intrigue read this analysis, The Six Steps to Get Out of the Balochistan Quicksand, by a retired Tank Corps Major of the Pakistan Army. Mr. A. H. Amin also authored The Pakistan Army till 1965 which is used as reference material at US Army War College Carlisle, US Army Command and the General Staff College Fort Leavenworth, just for starters. His knowledge and tone leave little doubt; this guy tells it like it is, insofar as he sees it, anyway.

Musharraf's got his hands full. -ww