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Village drools over Obama as George Herbert Walker Bush's second termThe village loves a politician who can fuck the people. In their view the cycle of the Nixon era is "right ward ratchet, centrist clean up." Nixon is cleaned up by Ford and Carter. Reagan is cleaned up by George Herbert Walker Bush and Clinton. George W. Bush is cleaned up by Obama. They are happy with this, because, while they really might prefer not to have a homophobic and xenophobic America, their theory has always been that power and connections will buy them an exemption from social restrictions, on say, drug use, paying taxes, homosexuality, racial integeration, and contraception - they get the money. This is why grand fiscal reform aka economic human sacrifice, is such a big deal. Since the 1983 change from Social Security as a pay as you go proposition, taxing inflation and demand spreading paying for it, to Social Security as a regressive tax, to be used for anything at all, and then not repaid later, the great obsession with the inside has been to find a way to cram down Social Security benefits. Privatization would, of course, be best, since that would allow the inside to directly sell snake oil investments, similar to the great rip off which is a 401k plan. However, second best is to spend the money in ways that the inside likes, and then cram down the public in the name of "responsibility." Just so you know, popping out nuclear powered aircraft carriers, losing foreign wars, jet fighters which have no enemy, and endless expansion of subsidies for corporations are "responsible." Doing things which save money and make people's lives better are "irresponsible." Obama, in their view, could be the perfect Democratic President: spend on term cleaning up Bush's fiscal mess, his foreign policy mess, cram down Democrats on their favorite program, force people to buy health insurance at an enormous profit to insurance companies, and then be washed away by a corporate Republican who goes back to tax cuts for the wealthy. It is a job that Barack Obama is eager to do. Having taken 4 off the table - as in "what does 2+2=, assuming that 4 is off the table?" - in every major policy area, what is left is minor fixes and minor changes to policy. He is willing to do enough about the middle class and suburbia, such as subsidies for home buying - which, you will note, the suddenly purist free traders of Washington DC are not uttering a peep about, despite the fact that we don't import subdivisions from China or Europe - so that the middle class does not rebel against being bled dry, and enough about civil liberties so that no one is in danger of having their passports revoked. He is willing to put competent people in charge, which means that Ivy and sub-Ivy league types are not behind graduates of fundamentalist degree mills for positions of authority. He is willing to do enough about global warming so that the flatheads don't feel bad. But he is not willing to sheer away the 13% or so of American GDP that is horrendously misallocated. Thus, restrictions on executive pay are off the table, repealing the Bush cuts early is off the table, thus giving more time to profitize and smuggle the money out, comprehensive health care is out, thus keeping 5% of GDP flowing to insurance companies, really cutting the military is out, just shifting it from one war to another. What this means for progressives is very simple: this progressive revolt is over, dead. There was a short window when the internet allowed the possibility of a progressive wave that would end run the very expensive and dying media age. What Obama did was assert "Television 2.0" - this too has been an obsession of the inside. They want everything about the old broadcast age, and they want all of the technological improvements to go to delivery and marketing. The internet is merely a better way of keeping track of, and marketing to, the little people. Obama's web strategy was exactly that: harvest money from little people for little promises, while harvesting big money from big people for big promises. Thus unions get some money and EFCA, civil libertarians get Gitmo closed down, choice groups get the global gag rule removed - but not actual full funding for contraception. This, for those of you not paying attention, or self-spinning yourselves into dizziness, is Old Politics. Old Politics is top down, with information gathering and the patina of responsiveness to produce "buy in." Small groups get small things. The people who run those small groups get to continue to live the life they like, by harvesting donations from their small group of donors who have made a particular issue "their" issue. The small groups are happy, and they support the large initiative. Buying support for pennies on the dollar. Obama is merely doing this on the left. Old Politics rapidly annoys the public, because they both have the large issues go against them, and they seem small issues decided by "the extremists on both sides." They thus blame "the extremists on both sides" for the erosion of American opportunity. It would be like a drunk switching between water and club soda to mix with their hard liquor, seeing this as change. The reality of course is that the top down system, itself, is the problem. Revolts against top down come in the form of "bottom up" generating the next group of small issue activists to be harvested in turn by the next party in power. Social conservatives are energized by social liberals, social liberals by social conservatives. Resource exploitation is energized by environmentalism, environmentalists by resource exploitation. Military people by war opponents. Back and forth it goes in a dynamic equilibrium which is, none the less, stable. The core - protecting the financial infrastructure and super-elite - remains in place. Faith by Science, Science by Faith. In each case the irrelevancies of packaging are focused on. Coke. Pepsi. Pepsi. Coke. Which has more vitamin C in it? Obama has made no substantial moves to change this, but instead plugs into branding and identity politics. Thus the village is hoping to spin Obama into the position of doing the clean up work for them, and return in due course politics to it's rightward ratchet. Anti-gay is burning itself out, as anti-abortion did, but there are other issues waiting in the wings. What the Republican party needs is the wit to come up with a grand theme that will rally their base, and prepare them for a body blow strike against the Democratic House. With the house in hand, the Republicans can then force Obama to be little more than a Republican who is moderate on social issues. But to do this they need to persuade the big money that the Republican Party can more effectively support the core elite. There are attempts to do this, but until the big money shifts to the Republican House effort, there will be no return of the GOP. Stirling Newberry February 2, 2009 - 9:33am
( categories: USA: Presidency )
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