Village drools over Obama as George Herbert Walker Bush's second term


The village loves a politician who can fuck the people. In their view the cycle of the Nixon era is "right ward ratchet, centrist clean up." Nixon is cleaned up by Ford and Carter. Reagan is cleaned up by George Herbert Walker Bush and Clinton. George W. Bush is cleaned up by Obama. They are happy with this, because, while they really might prefer not to have a homophobic and xenophobic America, their theory has always been that power and connections will buy them an exemption from social restrictions, on say, drug use, paying taxes, homosexuality, racial integeration, and contraception - they get the money.

This is why grand fiscal reform aka economic human sacrifice, is such a big deal. Since the 1983 change from Social Security as a pay as you go proposition, taxing inflation and demand spreading paying for it, to Social Security as a regressive tax, to be used for anything at all, and then not repaid later, the great obsession with the inside has been to find a way to cram down Social Security benefits. Privatization would, of course, be best, since that would allow the inside to directly sell snake oil investments, similar to the great rip off which is a 401k plan. However, second best is to spend the money in ways that the inside likes, and then cram down the public in the name of "responsibility." Just so you know, popping out nuclear powered aircraft carriers, losing foreign wars, jet fighters which have no enemy, and endless expansion of subsidies for corporations are "responsible." Doing things which save money and make people's lives better are "irresponsible."

Obama, in their view, could be the perfect Democratic President: spend on term cleaning up Bush's fiscal mess, his foreign policy mess, cram down Democrats on their favorite program, force people to buy health insurance at an enormous profit to insurance companies, and then be washed away by a corporate Republican who goes back to tax cuts for the wealthy.

It is a job that Barack Obama is eager to do. Having taken 4 off the table - as in "what does 2+2=, assuming that 4 is off the table?" - in every major policy area, what is left is minor fixes and minor changes to policy. He is willing to do enough about the middle class and suburbia, such as subsidies for home buying - which, you will note, the suddenly purist free traders of Washington DC are not uttering a peep about, despite the fact that we don't import subdivisions from China or Europe - so that the middle class does not rebel against being bled dry, and enough about civil liberties so that no one is in danger of having their passports revoked. He is willing to put competent people in charge, which means that Ivy and sub-Ivy league types are not behind graduates of fundamentalist degree mills for positions of authority. He is willing to do enough about global warming so that the flatheads don't feel bad. But he is not willing to sheer away the 13% or so of American GDP that is horrendously misallocated.

Thus, restrictions on executive pay are off the table, repealing the Bush cuts early is off the table, thus giving more time to profitize and smuggle the money out, comprehensive health care is out, thus keeping 5% of GDP flowing to insurance companies, really cutting the military is out, just shifting it from one war to another.

What this means for progressives is very simple: this progressive revolt is over, dead. There was a short window when the internet allowed the possibility of a progressive wave that would end run the very expensive and dying media age. What Obama did was assert "Television 2.0" - this too has been an obsession of the inside. They want everything about the old broadcast age, and they want all of the technological improvements to go to delivery and marketing. The internet is merely a better way of keeping track of, and marketing to, the little people. Obama's web strategy was exactly that: harvest money from little people for little promises, while harvesting big money from big people for big promises. Thus unions get some money and EFCA, civil libertarians get Gitmo closed down, choice groups get the global gag rule removed - but not actual full funding for contraception.

This, for those of you not paying attention, or self-spinning yourselves into dizziness, is Old Politics. Old Politics is top down, with information gathering and the patina of responsiveness to produce "buy in." Small groups get small things. The people who run those small groups get to continue to live the life they like, by harvesting donations from their small group of donors who have made a particular issue "their" issue. The small groups are happy, and they support the large initiative. Buying support for pennies on the dollar. Obama is merely doing this on the left.

Old Politics rapidly annoys the public, because they both have the large issues go against them, and they seem small issues decided by "the extremists on both sides." They thus blame "the extremists on both sides" for the erosion of American opportunity. It would be like a drunk switching between water and club soda to mix with their hard liquor, seeing this as change. The reality of course is that the top down system, itself, is the problem. Revolts against top down come in the form of "bottom up" generating the next group of small issue activists to be harvested in turn by the next party in power. Social conservatives are energized by social liberals, social liberals by social conservatives. Resource exploitation is energized by environmentalism, environmentalists by resource exploitation. Military people by war opponents. Back and forth it goes in a dynamic equilibrium which is, none the less, stable. The core - protecting the financial infrastructure and super-elite - remains in place. Faith by Science, Science by Faith. In each case the irrelevancies of packaging are focused on. Coke. Pepsi. Pepsi. Coke. Which has more vitamin C in it?

Obama has made no substantial moves to change this, but instead plugs into branding and identity politics.

Thus the village is hoping to spin Obama into the position of doing the clean up work for them, and return in due course politics to it's rightward ratchet. Anti-gay is burning itself out, as anti-abortion did, but there are other issues waiting in the wings.

What the Republican party needs is the wit to come up with a grand theme that will rally their base, and prepare them for a body blow strike against the Democratic House. With the house in hand, the Republicans can then force Obama to be little more than a Republican who is moderate on social issues. But to do this they need to persuade the big money that the Republican Party can more effectively support the core elite. There are attempts to do this, but until the big money shifts to the Republican House effort, there will be no return of the GOP.


Stirling Newberry February 2, 2009 - 9:33am
( categories: USA: Presidency )

I agree we will get no progressive leadership from Obama. He never wanted to be a progressive leader, and is not likely to want to become one.

We need to systematically build a drumbeat of simple PR to expose the agenda of this crowd.

I suspect it needs to be one issue at a time. Probably TARP is the starting point.

Progressives have an unfortunate habit of wanting to spot heroes in politics. We start to see what we want to see.

There are no heroes in politics. Just like no fresh water fish live in the ocean.

There is only ourselves. So we have to recognize the rules and play accordingly.

jwp February 2, 2009 - 10:48am

Dems are on the wrong side of the bailouts that favor wealth and power at taxpayer expense — privatizing gain and socializing loss.

The Dems will pay dearly for Wall Street contributions when things turn out badly, as they inevitably will since the problem is only being papered over. Then it's going to seem like the GOP was right in opposing the bailouts.

tjfxh February 2, 2009 - 11:00am

What this means for progressives is very simple: this progressive revolt is over, dead.

There was never any real progressive revolt. While the ruling elite are pulling all the levers they can, as you note, the vast majority of people in the Democratic primaries did not line up behind anyone remotely progressive in a true sense, like Dennis Kucinich. The majority of the Democrats are a bit left of center, that's all, and that's what a Democratic clean up administration is about. Obama is somewhat left of center on some things and right of center on the most important ones.

The majority of Democrats continue to vote against their interests because there are hooked into a cultural worldview whose universe of discourse marginalizes progressivism. There were no real progressive issues raised by the major Democratic candidates if one listened closely, because they (Obama and HRC) were talking to the majority of American who believe in "the American dream" that they've been sold since birth in just about every way possible.

America seems stuck unless things get really, really bad. And then a demagogue could turn very hard right instead of in a progressive direction, even though a lot of progressive people assume that another FDR will emerge — perhaps the "real" Obama.

What the Republican party needs is the wit to come up with a grand theme that will rally their base, and prepare them for a body blow strike against the Democratic House. With the house in hand, the Republicans can then force Obama to be little more than a Republican who is moderate on social issues. But to do this they need to persuade the big money that the Republican Party can more effectively support the core elite. There are attempts to do this, but until the big money shifts to the Republican House effort, there will be no return of the GOP.

Well said. The ruling elite is very interested right now, first and foremost, in continuing to privatize gains and socialize losses, and the Obama economic team is on target for that. The next priority is continuing to claw back the concessions made during the Great Depression when SS and Medicare were crammed down on them. They see their best opportunity for doing this as lying with a Democratic administration, like Clinton did for welfare reform.

Wall Street is still salivating over SS, and I'm sure they see it as the way out for them, since regulation is all but certain to limit the derivative rip off. Business would also like to claw back as much benefit money as it can, too, chiefly by getting health insurance off its back. So there will be a grand bargain that accommodates both business interests that contribute to health care benefits and the health insurance companies. A compliant Dem administration can best accomplish this. Of course, enough "progressive" bones will be thrown to cover the trail.

After the financial system is made whole on the backs of taxpayers, then it will be time to take back the House and eventually the presidency for another round.

tjfxh February 2, 2009 - 10:55am

What's the prescription? Sunlight?

Come on, you are smart people in a small forum (not too much noise), thinking deep thoughts. Good.

Now what's the program? The talking points? The repetition of phrases that ridicule the right? And also ridicule Robber Capitalism. When one uses ridicule, it get the point rellay home, because the joke gets repeated.

It's not too late to begin to frame the debate. There are $4 Trillions of losses, and the banking industry insolvency to get through. Attach a label to that pain, and the right will be in the wastelands for another three generations.

Synoia February 2, 2009 - 1:00pm

and the patient will die. The US will eventually slip to a lower level of standard of living, and people will chisel each other in little games while a very small group of people live very well. Others will fight to get into that small group, and support the system as long as there is that chance.

Better luck next life, and thank you for playing.

Stirling Newberry February 2, 2009 - 1:13pm

he US will eventually slip to a lower level of standard of living

How low can you go? Some people, e.g., Karl Denninger, are speculating that the US is possibly headed for parity with the Third World in a worst case scenario. Meanwhile, the expectation of many is that the economy will return to the bubble highs, or at least thereabouts. The reality will likely be somewhere in between, but that is a big in-between.

tjfxh February 2, 2009 - 1:22pm

Some will be in the "Eastern Europe" standard. Parts in Western Europe. America will have wider variation.

Stirling Newberry February 2, 2009 - 2:13pm

What's the prescription?

The problem is that the American people have lost their way. The technology of manipulation and control is now in place and it will be virtually impossible to extricate the culture from it lacking a monumental change in collective consciousness. That is not impossible, since powerful technologies have been developed to change collective consciousness.

Actually, I did my MA thesis on this in 1972. It was entitled, Revolution or Evolution? — Toward a Theory of Social Change. Incidentally, I was warned by my department that this choice of subject might affect my future employability. I took an "alternative" course anyway, so it did not turn out to be an issue.

tjfxh February 2, 2009 - 1:31pm

It's the public. It still wants fire and forget politics.

Stirling Newberry February 2, 2009 - 2:14pm

folks choose fire over politics since video games and movies promote that choice. hence, the way technology is used is very clever.

the movie "the dark knight" was viewed, by some, as a glorification of bush's philosophies and, as we know, the movie was very popular.

so one of the uses of technology is to plant seeds of hate.

mrmx February 2, 2009 - 4:32pm

There were other ways this could have gone, but people chose to react based on teh gut and the blink.

The rest was just fitting together the package.

Stirling Newberry February 2, 2009 - 5:08pm

well first, i say we be pro-Reason advocates.

consider the dying print industry, who suffers most. the whole dumbing down wave was quite conscious and needs great public outcry. forget the right: playboy, mad, rolling stone, psychology today etc, even wired (whom in their latest issue mentioned the dying print industry as an aside), have over the years deliberately lowered their levels of sophistication -mad even spoke upfront about it the issue they reluctantly did so. as if they needed to duck, and not stand out against the growing 1984/mccarthyesque background. true, culture is not our friend, especially our own, but we need to hedge it's reluctant antipathy towards us. and yes, the right then, we do need to support earnest and benevolent voices all over even if we disagree and honor our reasonable opposition such as ron paul, etc. castigating the loons is pointless and futile, but the assault on reason itself must be underscored like al gore at least did with his book, the assault on reason.

if we need select focal issues, first thing first, i say.

Zuma February 3, 2009 - 6:14am

LBJ signed the legislation creating Medicare in July, 1965. FDR wanted universal health coverage. So did Truman. It was not a fringe effort, but everyone assumed that eventually the U.S. would get it. Medical coverage for the elderly was simply a logical starting point. The rollback of government service to the majority of people, that is, the feudalization of American society, has characterized primarily the last thirty years. From the '40s through the '60s, liberals could still make some progress.

nihil obstet February 2, 2009 - 1:01pm

From the '40s through the '60s, liberals could still make some progress.

LBJ was the last really New Deal president, who sought to complete the FDR legacy, and had a Democratic Congress. Herbert Humphrey was the last progressive Dem candidate. His loss to Nixon ended the forward thrust of the New Deal, but it would take the GOP some time to reverse the course of the country, since the momentum was so great.

New Deal Democrats were in power essentially until Reagan. Nixon was actually fairly liberal in many ways, since that was still the prevailing mood of the country. Significantly, the Congress was able to oust Nixon but not W, whose crimes were far more egregious.

The New Deal Dems were not finally defeated and turned out until the Gingrich revolution gave the GOP the presidency and Congress. Bill Clinton's DNC hammered the final nails in the coffin of the New Deal when they triangulated. Obama is stacking up to be Clinton II in this regard.

So far, Obama is not talking cramming anything down on the wealthy and powerful, and he is instead enabling the claw backs, while throwing some bones to the base. There is no evidence yet of a new "fair deal."

tjfxh February 2, 2009 - 1:16pm

who's really benefitting from social programs that are run by private companies for a profit?
I prefer the VA model, myself.

dk February 3, 2009 - 7:42am

TELL US WHAT YOU REALLY THINK:-)


I feel the American worker has been sacrificed to the capitalist idols in the ancient Mayan fashion. - Sue Lamb, NYT reader

nymole February 2, 2009 - 1:36pm

simply because it is hard to divide normal first year problems that all Presidents have, from real failures of vision.

Stirling Newberry February 2, 2009 - 2:15pm

To have failure of vision, one must have put forward a vision. One of my principal criticisms of the Dems is that they have not put forward a coherent vision for where they want to take America since the collapse of the New Deal vision and its replacement by Reaganism.

Obama spoke about vision — hope, change — but he never actually articulated a vision that established a criterion against which his success could be measured. He stated certain policies in reaction to Bush, but there's no coherent vision.

This is consistent with Stirling's claim that Obama is a thinly disguised Reaganite, a "compassionate conservative" continuing in that model of governing based on Chicago School political economy.

tjfxh February 2, 2009 - 6:33pm

good point!

mrmx February 2, 2009 - 7:37pm

just above the bottom one, here's what I'm wondering.

What happens when there is no more to steal from the likes of me? What happens when there is no more economic bounce?

Are things really very very different for you upper middle class sorts?

Where I live and work competence is dead. Anyone stupid enough to practice it gets ruined in a hurry. Fraud is the only way to survive.

I've worked for a couple of small start up businesses that went belly up precisely because of this. Because these days dishonest employees infest a new business faster than you can say metastasize.

The PR techniques for smearing and banishing the honest and competent have been taught to the hoi polloi for three decades by FOX. Meanwhile folks in a position to launch a business are so saturated with FOX-think themselves as to be incapable of sorting the honest from the larcenous.

So what happens once the goose is good and dead? Perhaps I need a poll here. Which nation will we resemble the most once our economy is dead forever? Russia with better weather? Ecuador with more literacy? Eastern Europe with our own internal market for trafficked women?

someofparts February 2, 2009 - 1:37pm
tjfxh February 2, 2009 - 2:15pm

There's no law saying that the US needs to be the richest nation in the world, or that life needs to be awful if it isn't. In fact, after one too many foul ups of the Village system, it might be a great deal better.

Stirling Newberry February 2, 2009 - 2:42pm

you either return to the US thankful to be an American, or the rose colored glasses come off when you realize that Americans are selling their birthright for a bowl of porridge. It is very simple to live very well on very little once you see how the rest of the world does it.

tjfxh February 2, 2009 - 3:11pm

Right now one can live comfortably in the U.S. on relatively little money -- as long as one doesn't have children who can get sick and who need education, and one doesn't get sick oneself, and one is able to find an income source in a low-cost, probably rural area . . . . And so on.

One needs an income in the upper quintile of income distribution to have the life portrayed in car commercials and assumed in MSM op-ed economic columns, complete with medical/dental care, children at private schools where they make the contacts that will keep them in the right class, maid service/lawn service to take care of the McMansion that one convinces oneself is really a Mansion. . . .

What we've lost is a vision of life that has the security Roosevelt defined in the New Deal and LBJ in the Great Society for everybody, without the material acquisitiveness that has taken over Americans. To say, "the whole society can have health care but it may mean you won't get a 50-inch HDTV" has simply become "we can't afford health care for everyone." Notice that the government went into the business of subsidizing TV converter boxes more easily than subsidizing children's medical services.

The toxic propaganda that equates "what we can afford" with unbridled acquisitiveness just makes the impoverishment of the country easier. Social security in its broad sense has a moral argument for it. Greed doesn't.

As you say, maybe further Village excesses will start bringing us around.

nihil obstet February 2, 2009 - 4:09pm

When "spinning" became a laudable activity, the decline and fall scenario became inevitable for America. With gangsters for heroes and stealthy lying considered the highest professional skill, our society has sealed its doom. We will have a few more low, dishonest decades before ethically grounded communities can rise again, probably on what remains of the Internet. Meanwhile, we can expect the slow, steady discrediting of all institutions that trade in falsehood, including the US Government.

HH February 2, 2009 - 4:43pm

Review the UK GDP per head from 1930 to the present.

And reflect on the true revolutionary of the 20th century, Henry Ford. Absolutly demolished Das Kapital, and didn't even know he was doing it.

Synoia February 3, 2009 - 1:13am

Absolutly demolished Das Kapital

Ford admirably saw that "profit-sharing" (his word) increases demand. However, he was vehemently anti-union, too. He also held a paternalistic (authoritarian) view of management. However, he was eventually forced to back off intervening in employees' lives.

Wikipedia

tjfxh February 3, 2009 - 1:19am

editted to add: on second thought, I think I misread your post. my apologies. but I'm going to let it stand, because I think people misunderstand Ford as well

your link

The wage was offered to employees who had worked at the company for six months or more, and, importantly, conducted their lives in a manner of which Ford's "Social Department" approved. They frowned on heavy drinking, gambling, and what we today would call "deadbeat dads". The Social Department used 50 investigators, plus support staff, to maintain employee standards; a large percentage of workers were able to qualify for this "profit-sharing."

Ford's incursion into his employees' private lives was highly controversial, and he soon backed off from the most intrusive aspects; by the time he wrote his 1922 memoir, he spoke of the Social Department and of the private conditions for profit-sharing in the past tense, and admitted that "paternalism has no place in industry. Welfare work that consists in prying into employees' private concerns is out of date. Men need counsel and men need help, oftentimes special help; and all this ought to be rendered for decency's sake. But the broad workable plan of investment and participation will do more to solidify industry and strengthen organization than will any social work on the outside. Without changing the principle we have changed the method of payment."

do you know he was sued by his stockholders, the Dodge Bros, for paying his employees too much? do you know he then bought out all the remaining shareholders? Ford was a complete idealist trying to better his business and society. not always correctly, but the best he knew how.

how can you argue w/ his dictum "History is bunk" when you've watched it being written in real time re: the Iraq war? he knew that the victors write the history. he also knew the role of financiers, they're parasites. you know that too.

I grew up about a mile from his farm, (which remained a park until recently when it became a shopping mall) I played along the leveed banks of the Rouge River, we'd walk along the shore past the Henry Ford Museum and Greenfield Village, right up to his old mansion. The grounds were bequeathed to the University of Michigan, and a large tract was set aside as a bird sanctuary. All open to the public.
I can't even begin to tell you how I've personally benefitted from the things he left behind to posterity, besides well paying jobs.
Henry Ford was folk hero in his time, History has tried to change the story.
http://www.willamette.edu/~fthompso/MgmtCon/Henry_Ford.html

dk February 3, 2009 - 9:17am

Good? yes. Ford did more for the people of this planet than karl marx and his followers. Lenin & Stalin.

"He also held a paternalistic (authoritarian) view of management." True. So did Patterson (NCR) & Tom Watson (IBM). Common for the time.

Let's compare the motor industry with the Communist economies, over the same period...

Synoia February 3, 2009 - 12:54pm

as they seem to share the same fate. Henry Ford must be rolling in his grave.
actually it's kind of a ridiculous argument. the decline and collapse of the USSR and the decline of American living standards seem to coincide, dontcha think? Our collapse is just taking longer.
perhaps, I don't understand your comment or it was directed towards someone else or something else?

dk February 3, 2009 - 1:19pm

US and USSR.
Do you think the cost of wanting to be superpower eventually brings a country down? Is this a normal course?

Beyond Afghanistan there are many similarities: high level corruption, incompetence, dogmatic ideological beliefs, overblown militaries, collapsing infrastructures, dysfunctional monopolistic industries (including Ford), a monolithic press, an inbred political class, ubris, cultural isolation of the general population...

interesting!

kschl February 3, 2009 - 9:30pm

England, Spain, Rome, Ottomans, Mayans. I don't know, I'm not a historian, just a cook.
but my guess would be that resistance to change when the old resources are running out, (that's when the money gets made, you charge more for scarce items, hence resistance), and your conquered territories turn against you for sqeezing them too hard; these could well signal the beginning of the end for empires.
Institutions need to evolve, they can't be static, it's against the laws of nature.
you could ask Stirling, he's smart. and he's got some ideas about how to evolute this society, or should I say, revolute? ;>

I believe there are some conspiracy theorists that believe the Russian revolution was a banker's plot to steal everything from the Romanov's, as they were seriously powerful at the time. but ya gotta bring the people along, which Lenin & Stalin knew how to do.

this is from the American Jewish Committee's Archives, but I have no idea what the actual source is:
http://ajcarchives.net/AJC_DATA/Files/THR-37.PDF

all I know is history is written by the victors

dk February 4, 2009 - 7:23am

houses, betcha a ground swell for real change happens. No, they won't be content with being fed false promises--US citizens will rise up and demand health coverage. The depth of foreclosures aren't being felt as yet. Prices (housing, food, and other critical needs) have to deflate to being affordable once again which puts millions in dire straits financially.

In times past it was feasible for a family to own a house, raise a family including educating offspring with one salary. Feel free to mark my prediction, that time will repeat. Mortgages were designed to be paid off. Effortless home ownership based on accumulation of debt will be relegated to recent, past history.

canuck February 3, 2009 - 9:06am

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