OK Senators. Pass. The Damn. Bill.


The Senate can, and should, make minor improvements to the stimulus bill. Restoring the contraception funding would be one good move, as would upping some of the obvious wins in education funding - for example, grants for nursing and other forms of medical study would improve the supply of doctors, nurses, and medical technologists, right at the time when we admit that we need more of them. However, for all of the many imperfections of this stimulus bill, it has reached "the best deal we are going to get" stage. It's wrong, and therefore, cannot afford to be late. There are better ideas that could be put in place. For example the "middle class tax cut" is a rather poor idea, but it is the President's poor idea. The corporate tax cuts don't generate incremental investment, but there are enough conservative Democrats that it is unlikely to survive without them. Repealing large chunks of the odious bankruptcy law would be helpful, and reducing the incentive of companies to liquidate would be down right smart. But these are also, off the table.

More over, the Republicans now can do what they do best: lie based on fear and pseudo-principles of so-called "conservatism." Suddenly deficits matter. No one could have foreseen that. Allowing them to stay in attack mode and scream about good ideas that make the anti-sex crowd psuedo-outraged costs political capital. This is stupid, but Americans are still waking up from a long stupor.

One could improve this bill in a hundred ways, but we don't have a hundred days to pass this one bill. At this point Admiral Farragut is the best political guide: damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead. Right now if one runs the numbers on it, without running to the back of the envelope at convenient moments, it generated roughly 2.5 to 3 million jobs. Probably on the low end of that because of delays in getting money in, boil away from tax cuts - not properly accounted for in the FRB model, which admittedly missed the "job loss recovery" effect from the last times, and needs a statistical overhaul on the value of tax cuts - but this is a great deal better than a job economy in free fall.

Over the last half century, there is a very high correlation between the headline U-1 unemployment rate and the NBER declaring a recession. This means that until the unemployment rate stops it's free fall, we will likely remain in a declared recession, with all of the negative consequences that this entails for businesses with holding investment, cutting positions and so on. The stimulus in the bill will prevent thousands of lay offs at the state level, and move forward with vital projects at the time we should be doing them any way. One take away from this is that the Federal Government should be doing economic planning for both booms and busts: have lists of projects that can be moved during recessions.

There is about 85 Billion dollars of head room for Senate priorities. The best thing to do would be to allocate about 1 billion dollars per Democratic Senator, and about 2 billion dollars per Republican vote needed. Caucus with a filibuster proof majority, inviting in Republicans who are willing to be reasonable, and then pass the bill, overcoming unanimous consent if need be.

It is a bad bill, but it is better than nothing, and nothing better will come out of this legislative process.


Stirling Newberry January 29, 2009 - 8:01pm
( categories: Economics: USA )

"It is a bad bill, but it is better than nothing, and nothing better will come out of this legislative process." "One could improve this bill in a hundred ways, but we don't have a hundred days to pass this one bill"

Happy to see that realism sinks in. Better imperfect than the best. Better something than nothing... cannot agree more.

kschl January 29, 2009 - 10:06pm

Long ago left the building, this is just about pulling out some of the rusty nails from the baseball bat that we are being sodomized with.

Stirling Newberry January 29, 2009 - 10:13pm

To realize that one is "pulling out some of the rusty nails from the baseball bat that we are being sodomized with" is realism. There are too many contradictory interests and entrenched positions for any fully rational solution to prevail. This is why centrists are well positioned. They are the only ones that can lure people to work together. Now is a centrist position the best to handle the economy, probably not. However that may be the only position that will get traction. Will this work? Who really knows? As they say in french: "le mieux est l'ennemie du bien" or the better is the enemy of the good.
Problem is the better is all we have. So be it and keep these cheeks closed... rusty nails are painfull

kschl January 29, 2009 - 11:05pm

The centrist position couldn't even deliver the supposed centrist vote.

Stirling Newberry January 29, 2009 - 11:57pm

I've noticed that my peers' definitions of good usually fall far short of actually being good, let alone "better" or "perfect" (as I've heard the phrase also used with "perfect" instead of better).

That phrase was among the refrains I received from people who didn't like my preference for Kucinich in the primaries. Problem is, he was among the few politicians running who seemed to be a decent human being with generally reasonable ideas to help our country and stop us from doing so much harm to others. But somehow that made him "better" or "perfect" and unelectable, so therefore I should have settled for someone who was just "good," like Clinton or Obama, to give the Democrats a chance to somehow turn things around. But they're not "good." They're awful.

Relative comparisons are fine in some situations, but objective thresholds have to be set. Sometimes its not "good/better" but "bad/good." And talking yourself into thinking that bad is good is a sure way to run into trouble.

Bolo January 30, 2009 - 5:28am

The candidate is either a Village person (as in privatize the gains and socialize the losses) or a People person (as in government of the people, by the people and for the people).

tjfxh January 30, 2009 - 11:55am

OK I guess my question is
can a people person win if the village is needed to get elected?

kschl January 31, 2009 - 1:15am

The first step would be comprehensive campaign finance and lobbying reform, eliminating private money (legalized bribery) from politics. The second would be trust-busting. The third would be requiring the wealthy to pay their way, i.e., ending "privatize the gains and socialize the losses." Etc.

Folks like Dennis Kucinich and Noam Chomsky have laid it out.

tjfxh January 31, 2009 - 3:08am

Good start, I would add an educated and critical public and diversified medias...

kschl January 31, 2009 - 6:37pm

The problem is that the Obama administration has to get this right form the start. There is very little room for error here for a variety of reasons that influence each other. Wasting precious ammunition is foolhardy. We are talking not billions or hundreds of billions but trillions of dollars.

The stakes are enormously high. Two years is a short time. If there are not tangible results by the 2010 election, the Dem (almost) super-majority could disappear. If there are not big advances by 2012, then get ready to welcome Bush III.

The GOP strategy is clear — do what they did to Bill Clinton and the Dem Congress at the time to provoke an upset. They will be claiming that their alternative would have solved the problem, and if Obama doesn't after spending trillions, a lot of people will believe the GOP claims. The bailouts are not popular and many people are extremely angry that Wall Street is being rewarded for failure.

This is not a climate in which Dems can make mistakes or give much away, and retain power. In politics, it's winner take all.

tjfxh January 29, 2009 - 10:51pm

Then it is already too late.

Stirling Newberry January 29, 2009 - 11:58pm

How bad will it be and for how long? I'd estimate 30% unemployment and 10 years.

Not Can Obama fix it, becuase the answer to that question is no.

They've continually ducked the naked CDS issue. They are also ducking the question of who's going to buy the debt Obama is issuing, and what happens when the Japanese, Chinese, Arabs & Indians want to sell their treasuries?

Obama is retired. Even if he's a one term president, he's the first black president, and never has to work again. His job, getting elected is done, the next 4 years are just one big vacation with fun for him.

The job was running for President. That job is over. The reward is becoming retired as President.

Synoia January 30, 2009 - 3:24am

Not everyone is just looking to bust ass until they hit a goal and sit back comfy the minute they can get away with it.

What you're describing is a certain type of *parasite*, someone who only thinks of nest-feathering and retirement - in terms of the moment when, having worked the bare minimum needed to secure their future, they can immediately stop working and never work again - and frames all achievement from that perspective.

I'm not wired like that, my wife isn't wired like that, and the people who I surround myself aren't wired like that. It wouldn't surprise me to hear the bulk of Agonists aren't like that.

I can see *nothing* in the personal or psychological history of Barack Obama that supports this projection, from his relentless overachievement at Harvard to his Presidential campaign. What *I* see is a driven individual, someone who would probably feel a great amount of psychological discomfort or even distress if he let up.

I think you need to worry about him *working himself to death* in the Oval Office - amongst other considerations, he shows every sign to me that he's aware he's got the aspirations of black America riding on his shoulders, and that he has to do far better than place-hold. He has to *excel* as the first black President in order to simply be grudgingly admitted by some to have done an adequate job.


"The best-informed man is not necessarily the wisest. Indeed there is a danger that precisely in the multiplicity of his knowledge he will lose sight of what is essential."

- Dietrich Bonhoeffer

Escher Sketch January 30, 2009 - 4:22am

doing poorly given his recent moves on the economy, etc., I doubt the next 4 years are going to be one big vacation for him...

He's going to leave office looking at least 10 years older than he should, probably more. Given the global economic situation and what is likely to transpire as a result, he will probably face one of the most difficult presidencies in history. He's in for a terrible 4 or 8 years.

Bolo January 30, 2009 - 5:32am

I'd estimate 30% unemployment

Image

Source

tjfxh January 30, 2009 - 12:29pm

http://agonist.org/20090129/u_s_draft_law_would_ban_most_trading_in_credit_default_swaps

At least someone has a clue.

Naked CDS's essentially allow you to buy ten fire insurance policies on my house. This is not a good thing for me. Business is war, yes, but this just makes it worse.

“The Playboy reader invites a female acquaintance in for a quiet discussion of Picasso, Nietzsche, jazz, sex.” - Hugh Hefner

Tonsure Wimple January 30, 2009 - 6:00pm

A COOL BILLION DOLLARS here in Minnesota. True enough!!!
--
Hongpong.com

HongPong January 30, 2009 - 3:42am

did you check Norms site to see if your vote counted? I was happy to see there were not too many idiots in Crow Wing County :D (and I wasn't one of them lol!)


"Go confidently in the direction of your dreams! Live the life you've imagined." -Henry David Thoreau

Tina January 30, 2009 - 3:50am

How did it cost a billion?

quiet Bill January 30, 2009 - 3:53am

Clearly you need a bailout. Call Jesse Ventura! He can wrestle Geithner to the ground.

“The Playboy reader invites a female acquaintance in for a quiet discussion of Picasso, Nietzsche, jazz, sex.” - Hugh Hefner

Tonsure Wimple January 30, 2009 - 5:53pm

One take away from this is that the Federal Government should be doing economic planning for both booms and busts: have lists of projects that can be moved during recessions.

That sounds suspiciously like long-term thinking. All of these fools are thinking in news-cycles and election-cycles only. At best their idea of long-term thought is nothing more than a permanent majority for their party.

And they're all beholden to the causative agents of this whole mess anyhow.

But what i find particularly disturbing about the bailout/stimulus debate is that the numbers are made to sound unprecedented and massive...except that Obama's plan is not even equal to the real costs of Defense in the budget every frickin' year.

Somehow it's crazy talk to borrow $800+ B for stimulus but not crazy to borrow that much every year in order to blow shit up. (IMO both are crazy, but we are hardly in the position to double up on our craziness.)

Lex January 30, 2009 - 9:08am

US nonprofit organizations are required to spend their income in a yearly cycle. In a multi-year cycle this means they get lots of contributions in good times and have to spend them. When the down cycle kicks in they have no cushion left.

Nonprofit capital requirements should be changed from yearly passthrough to a longer cycle.

“The Playboy reader invites a female acquaintance in for a quiet discussion of Picasso, Nietzsche, jazz, sex.” - Hugh Hefner

Tonsure Wimple January 30, 2009 - 5:55pm

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