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Housing Market is still expletive deletedAs you may know new home sales continued their fall, and that means that new home construction is going to remain dead as a door knob for a while. Last month half of all existing home sales were foreclosures. This means that the real price of homes is lower than the cost of building a new one. That will eventually change, when the supply of foreclosed homes dries up, but it will not be for a few months yet, and if we miss the spring window, it will mean that housing will remain in hiring recession for the rest of next year. When existing home sales came in up in numbers, but down in price, it led to wide cheers from the right wing punditocracy. However, that was a figament of the there Chicago School imaginations. Instead the existing home sales were being whacked straight out of new home sales. In 2008 482,000 new homes were sold. The annualized rate from December was 331,000 . The problem is that in December the annual rate of housing completion for single family homes was 668,000. That is, supply is still well above current demand, which means that prices will have to continue to fall. Right now new home inventory is still over a year. What this means is that for every new home people are buying, builders are still finishing two. Clearly the memo to shift capital from home building has not reached the economy yet. Stirling Newberry January 29, 2009 - 11:59pm
( categories: Economics: USA )
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