Housing Market is still expletive deleted


As you may know new home sales continued their fall, and that means that new home construction is going to remain dead as a door knob for a while. Last month half of all existing home sales were foreclosures. This means that the real price of homes is lower than the cost of building a new one. That will eventually change, when the supply of foreclosed homes dries up, but it will not be for a few months yet, and if we miss the spring window, it will mean that housing will remain in hiring recession for the rest of next year.

When existing home sales came in up in numbers, but down in price, it led to wide cheers from the right wing punditocracy. However, that was a figament of the there Chicago School imaginations. Instead the existing home sales were being whacked straight out of new home sales. In 2008 482,000 new homes were sold. The annualized rate from December was 331,000 . The problem is that in December the annual rate of housing completion for single family homes was 668,000. That is, supply is still well above current demand, which means that prices will have to continue to fall. Right now new home inventory is still over a year. What this means is that for every new home people are buying, builders are still finishing two.

Clearly the memo to shift capital from home building has not reached the economy yet.


Stirling Newberry January 29, 2009 - 11:59pm
( categories: Economics: USA )

New homes (not many) $950,000.
Existing homes $450,000, 40 years old.

Synoia January 30, 2009 - 3:26am

the town of Maricopa, a housing-boom exurb that lies 20 mins outside the city in the middle of the desert. It is connected to the metro area by a single four-lane highway that runs through reservation land. Very new homes in huge tract subdivisions, mostly developed in the last decade.

There are neighborhoods down there where every other house on the street is unoccupied. No one is buying anymore, some people have left, and prices have plummeted 50% in less than two years. Of course, when you're going from $230k to $115k the dollar amount lost isn't as much as, say, a 20% loss on Long Island. But still...

I don't know how much construction is going on down there currently though. But it was frightening to go down and visit our friends there at night--no one lives there, or there, or there, or any of those completely dark houses stretching down the street. And its not a bad neighborhood or too new to not have many residents moved in.

Bolo January 30, 2009 - 5:11am

From the service economy to the knowledge economy.

Stirling Newberry January 30, 2009 - 8:04am

you'll still end up exploiting the manual labor, because when it comes down to it, all production is manual w/ a few exceptions. not that innovators aren't needed, but it doesn't include the majority.
that's my complaint about Obama's hands never seeing work. he'll have little appreciation for the body-breaking work of the little guy. and the work must always be done, machines can't do everything as cheaply as the poorest persons on earth. There is a certain arrogance to those that never get dirty and only use their minds and their money.

dk January 30, 2009 - 8:18am

is a matter of whether you pay people for what they do.

Right now, we are not.

Stirling Newberry January 30, 2009 - 9:24am

Sorry, makes no sense to me. Knowledge does not mean much unless it can be applied to the physical universe in which we mortals must exist. That usually involves some physical process of extraction, refining, fabricating, or manufacturing.

So, I'm wondering, in your piece on micro-, macro-, meso-, and mega-economics, is econometrics akin to the measurement of the physical economy?

Tony Wikrent January 30, 2009 - 5:47pm

People don't get happy because protons are moved, they get happy because of inner states. Real power is the ability to make people happy on less, not more, movement of energy.

Natural systems minimize, not maximize, energy flow.

Stirling Newberry January 30, 2009 - 6:49pm

work smarter, not harder? yeah, I learned that when I started working. but still manual work is required, and barely rewarded, if you're not an owner. I'm thinking Worker's Internationale. you'd think we'd be able to find a better balance by now, instead of how many poor people can we keep poor and steal from. ya-hoo, communism's dead. same as it ever was.
maybe there's some sort of constant, like the speed of light, or horsepower. say 3 hrs of manpower feeds 1 person for a week, instead of this money thing that determines the value of labor.
There's gotta be another way, but it's above my paygrade to figure out. so go at it, knowledge worker!
(and no, that's not snark. I'd be willing to contribute to a stipend for you. I may be making $4/hr right now, but I'm blessed w/ a lot of hours)

dk January 30, 2009 - 9:55pm

Or quaaludes, or whatever settles inner states. But if everybody is starving, it makes no difference if you can keep them happy. Humanity ends.

My critique of economics has always been that its practitioners have forgotten that an economy is how a society organizes itself to procure, produce, and distribute the material and immaterial goods and services required to sustain and reproduce human life. There are x number of people on the planet, each requires y number of calories and z liters of water each day. If you can't produce and distribute xy calories and xz liters of water, something is way wrong somewhere, and needs to be fixed. It may be just a problem of political economy, but it requires human intervention before it becomes so large a problem that the whole planet reverts to a truly natural state.

"Natural systems minimize, not maximize, energy flow." Perhaps. But an economy is not a natural system, because an economy is the result of human actions. And I know you know, because you've written some brilliant articles on the transition from wind to steam to internal combustion, that human history has been that of increasing energy flow. Though I think the better concept might be the history of increasing human mastery of the spectrum of energy, from diffuse wood fires, to chemical explosions, to concentrated lasers.

Tony Wikrent January 31, 2009 - 1:15am

It really needs several separate diaries to discuss the issues involved. This is foundational and without addressing it, the debate is being carried out at cross-purposes.

Here's an interesting article on the major US camps. Background on "fresh water" and "salt water" macroeconomics

Here's another view altogether. PROUT

George Soros has been pushing this for some time through his foundation, the Open Society Foundation. He agrees with Hayek and Friedman that economics is fundamental to the open society in which we would like to live, rather than in the closed society he left in his youth. However, he completely disagrees with their economic presumptions, which he thinks are flat out wrong in presuming rationality, for instance. Well, we just had an experiment to test that — to paraphrase Alan Greenspan, "I never suspected that supposedly sophisticated market participants would turn out to be irrational and blow up the system."

tjfxh January 31, 2009 - 1:32pm

The first is about the nature of these sales. Surely some can be accounted for by people who have money, or sold their houses at the peak and have been waiting on the sidelines for "good deals."

However, I suspect a very large, if not majority of these sales are actually effective transfers of title from foreclosed homeowners to the banks who underwrote the mortgages on these foreclosed houses. This is how it works: when a bank forecloses on a mortgage, the process involves a court procedure where the property is auctioned off to the highest bidder. Occasionally bottom-feeders come up with the highest bid, but almost always, the bank comes up with the highest bid. It is in effect a transfer of title to the bank. But it is also accounted for as a "sale." And as such, on first glance, the statistics indicating a rise in sales look like movement in the real estate market, but it's really just more real estate catastrophe housecleaning.

In my area, around New Haven Connecticut, a local online news outfit, the New Haven Independent, has been tracking as many of these foreclosure type sales as they can. Here's a link to one:

http://www.newhavenindependent.org/archives/2009/01/hill_foreclosur.php

But if you scroll down, you'll see dozens of links to other such stories where bidders lose out to banks.

The other observation I had was that, wouldn't it be the world turned upside-down when we become a nation of homeless people, pressing our noses to the windows of our old, now-empty, bank-owned houses? Wouldn't it be funny that we and our children would be paying taxes to prop up the banks that now own those houses? Wouldn't it be great to be in a state of permanent national tax-debt peonage so that the public-owned banks could retain the financial geniuses who created this mess? And pay them big bonuses for losing Trillions of dollars? And lobby congress with our own money to give them more money?

Man, that's like heads-I-win, tails-you-lose. We're in the wrong business!

Jonathryn January 30, 2009 - 11:22am

It's called pitchforks and torches. Just insert shotgun for pitchfork and molotovs for torches for the 21st century. The best part is they already know how to do this, don't need a single class in economics.
.
.
.
.
"The other observation I had was that, wouldn't it be the world turned upside-down when we become a nation of homeless people, pressing our noses to the windows of our old, now-empty, bank-owned houses? Wouldn't it be funny that we and our children would be paying taxes to prop up the banks that now own those houses? Wouldn't it be great to be in a state of permanent national tax-debt peonage so that the public-owned banks could retain the financial geniuses who created this mess? And pay them big bonuses for losing Trillions of dollars? And lobby congress with our own money to give them more money?
Man, that's like heads-I-win, tails-you-lose. We're in the wrong business!"

zot23 January 30, 2009 - 12:45pm

Things are starting to freeze down politically, as people want to vote right, but protest left.

Stirling Newberry January 30, 2009 - 11:47pm

My friends in the RE game tell me that there are plenty of buyers and plenty of money available, but the offers are extremely low ball. Buyers are only willing to offer about 20 cents on the dollar from the peak, where they can rent with a positive cash flow. Some are successful in picking up distress sales at around this price, usually properties that need some work. People with funds are coming in from around the world.

tjfxh January 30, 2009 - 11:49am

"I'm cash flow positive. Are you?"

Stirling Newberry January 30, 2009 - 6:51pm

Here's a guy who is trying to lure Canadians into buying U.S. property. I don't know how legit he is.
Attention Canadian Real Estate Investors

INTRODUCING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN CANADA!!

“HOW TO BUY
U.S. FORECLOSURES
FOR AS LITTLE AS $46,500 THAT
CASHFLOW $650-850 PER MONTH”

From: Aiden Win
Written: Friday, January 30, 2009

Dear Aspiring Real Estate Investor in Toronto,

If you didn't know, the entire United States is on sale!

Here are some US Foreclosure statistics for you...
More

Here's a less sensational approach.


Tolerating prostitution is tolerating abuse and torture of women and children.

adrena January 30, 2009 - 10:09pm

Make offers only on properties that need work. There are usually competitive bids on clean properties or the bank just holds on, knowing that the property will eventually sell. However, properties that need work are not easily marketable and banks know this. They are open to pretty low ball offers, since properties needing work deteriorate and become less valuable.

Of course, to work this you have to know something about construction, or get someone who does, so as to be able to estimate how much more needs to go into the deal.

tjfxh January 31, 2009 - 1:01am

I've been remembering an observation I read somewhere lately. In the U.S., we fear our government. In France, the government fears the people. I wish I could figure out how to move toward the French relationship to government without giving the oligarchs an excuse to round all of us up into camps.

someofparts January 30, 2009 - 1:19pm

The problem is that it’s the rednecks who are armed to the teeth.

tjfxh January 30, 2009 - 1:23pm

eom

dk January 30, 2009 - 9:33pm

In some buildout 'burbs in CA there are completely empty blocks. All of the houses have been raided for the plumbing.

In other neighborhoods people are asked to "adopt" the abandoned swimming pools next door. Mosquitoes, y'know.

“The Playboy reader invites a female acquaintance in for a quiet discussion of Picasso, Nietzsche, jazz, sex.” - Hugh Hefner

Tonsure Wimple January 31, 2009 - 5:28am

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