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India formally accuses Pakistan's government of being involved with Mumbai attacks.
This is not good, and amounts to a warning that India will take unilateral action soon.
India is right. Pakistan is playing the same game that Saudi Arabia played with us re: Al Queda. They "officially" denounce terrorism, but there's people at all levels of their government and society that sympathize with the factions making the attacks.
Pakistan cannot conduct an effective internal investigation. It is impossible because they will not be able to separate out the investigators from the sympathizers. There is too much infiltration and too much corruption of local government, as well as some federal officials. Not to mention that people can be terrorized into silence by having themselves or their families threatened if they co-operate with authorities in an investigation.
So the problem India is pointing out is real and needs to be addressed. However, there are right ways and wrong ways to go about it. Diplomatic pressure and rhetoric are the right way. If the narrative in the international community can be influenced by India and the USA, then the world will come to regard Pakistan as a state with terrorism problems, and will lean on Pakistan to clean itself up. That would be good.
Military action against Pakistan is the wrong way because 1. it does not solve the issue, and in fact may backfire by creating even more sympathy among Pakistanis for anti-India militant groups, and 2. it actually helps the terrorists to achieve one of their goals - to draw India into an armed quagmire with Pakistan.
So I think US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Richard Boucher took the right tack by acknowledging that India's point is valid, but urging that both governments work co-operatively together against terrorism and to promote peace.
I doubt that India will let this happen to them.
I wonder how Obama will deal with the Pakistanis. Seems like he's already sent signals that if they don't move, he will.
New Delhi | September 6
The Hindu- The evidentiary dossier given to Pakistan on Monday marks the first systematic Indian presentation of what ongoing investigations into the Mumbai terrorist attacks have revealed so far.
The 69-page document provides crucial details about the telephone links between the attackers and Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives and identifies for the first time the names of six “Pakistan-based handlers” who were constantly in touch with the gunmen even as they wreaked havoc in the city during the November 26-29, 2008 incidents.
Though the dossier does not identify any of the six as a functionary or operative of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, Indian officials say the links and affiliations of some of the aliases used by the handlers in their intercepted phone conversations with the terrorists have left New Delhi in no doubt about the involvement of the ISI in the attacks.
The evidence includes eight partial transcripts of selected intercepted conversations between the terrorists and their handlers, data from the GPS equipment recovered from the fishing trawler, Kuber, photographs of ordnance used in the attack and items of daily use recovered from the Kuber, all with clearly identified Pakistani markings, and, most crucially, an account of the money trail linking Pakistan-based operatives to the purchase of the Voice Over Internet Protocol (VoIP) calling platform used by the handlers to try and mask their physical location.more at link
Yes, I can come up with a post-election signature, just... not... yet...
The Hindu - Pakistan said on Tuesday the information given to it by India on the Mumbai attacks did not constitute “proof” and, responding to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s speech in New Delhi, warned that allegations against the Pakistani state could end “all prospects of serious and objective investigations” into the incident.
In the National Assembly, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Malik Adam Khan and Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir told the Committee on Foreign Relations that the material handed over by India was “not sufficient” and could not be regarded as “evidence.”
“India did not give any proof; it has given information, some documents containing their investigations [into the attacks].
Pakistan wants credible, and according to the law, evidence from the Indian government,” Mr. Bashir told the House. Yes, I can come up with a post-election signature, just... not... yet...
on themselves by destroying the faces of the assailants, it is hard to identify a pile of mush as being Indian, Pakistani or whatever else. I think in their hurry to claim no Indians were involved they tainted their own investigations. That and the seemingly total lack of professionalism of Indian police, military and civilian leadership.
Good,long,Q&A piece
Andrew Buncombe | January 7
The Independent - ... Does India believe that the civilian government is behind the attacks?
Almost certainly not. Indian officials have stressed they are not pointing fingers at Pakistan's civilian leadership, headed by the President Asif Ali Zardari and the Prime Minister Yousaf Gilani. Until this point they have also been careful to draw a distinction between so-called "state actors" and "non-state" actors...
They believe that some elements of Pakistan's state – the intelligence agencies for example – may have been involved. On Monday India's Foreign Secretary, Shivshankar Menon, went as far as to say: "Even the so-called non-state actors function within a state are citizens of a state. We don't think there's such a thing as non-state actors." more at the link
We don't think there's such a thing as non-state actors
This is the direction that the world is heading. It's basically an implication of the Bush Doctrine.
We will pursue nations that provide aid or safe haven to terrorism. Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make. Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists. From this day forward, any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a hostile regime
According to a loose interpretation of the Bush Doctrine, it is not necessary to prove conclusively that another nation is either planning to attack or harboring those who are. Rather, reasonable suspicion is sufficient for preemptive war. The world is getting to be a dangerous place, and Pakistan is on dangerous ground, facing the US to the north and India to the south. If the Pakistani government doesn't rein in the ISI and go after the militants, either the US or India will eventually clobber it. If it does, it faces high risk of civil war, or another military coup. But it seems that Pakistan is the epicenter of the GWOT, since the training camps are situated there, and operations are organized there. However, the funding is apparently largely Saudi.
I'm getting close to calling a major conflagration in this area during the Obama administration, which the US will inevitably have some role even if it starts between Pakistan and India, or it’s a Pakistani civil war. In any case the tribal regions will be a serious threat to the US, as will as the northwestern cities such as Quetta and Peshawar.
Tue Jan 6, 2009 By Simon Denyer - Analysis
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India may be frustrated and even outwitted by Pakistan over the Mumbai attacks, after placing its faith in diplomacy and the support of the United States.
New Delhi has responded to the attacks on its soil with a determined diplomatic offensive, trusting Washington and ultimately Barack Obama to force Pakistan's hand.
It could be disappointed, but is unlikely to vent its frustration through military action, analysts and diplomats say. "Pakistan has been able to obfuscate the issue, which is testimony to its chutzpah," said Indian security analyst Uday Bhaskar.
"It is also a reflection of the degree to which the major powers are complicit in allowing the Pakistani establishment to engage in this kind of double-speak.
"India will have to temper its own expectation of what the international community can deliver." Monday, India handed evidence to Pakistan and other countries which it said showed Pakistani militants carried out the November attack on Mumbai, and Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram will take the dossier to Washington this week.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh kept up pressure Tuesday, saying the attack must have had support from "official agencies" in Pakistan and accusing Islamabad of "whipping up war hysteria." But with Obama and the West depending on Pakistani support for a planned troop surge in Afghanistan, there are limits to how far the world will twist Islamabad's arm.
The Hindu has the scanned dossier
India's Mumbai dossier: the case against Pakistan
Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives provided telephone advice to gunmen, intelligence report claims
The Guardian News Blog
The Hindu newspaper has published an Indian intelligence dossier setting out the case that Pakistani militants carried out the November attacks in Mumbai that killed more than 170 people.
According to the 69-page document, six operatives of the Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group provided real-time telephone advice to gunmen during the sieges in two upmarket hotels and a Jewish centre.
Although the dossier does not identify any of the six as being linked to Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence, Indian officials are convinced the aliases used leave no room for doubt about the involvement of the agency.
Transcripts of the intercepted telephone calls revealed one exchange between the handlers and the gunmen included the instruction: "If you are still threatened, then don't saddle yourself with the burden of the hostages. Immediately kill them."
The dossier also features photographs of materials found on a fishing trawler the gunmen took to Mumbai, including a bottle of Mountain Dew soda packaged in Karachi, pistols bearing the markings of a gun manufacturer in Peshawar, and Pakistani-made items such as a matchbox, detergent powder and shaving cream.
The head of MI5, Jonathan Evans, yesterday indicated that British intelligence services had discovered billing records revealing telephone calls between Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives and Britain, but "nothing of national security" had been found.
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