Hate Rent? Love Cooperation


A paper explores a matrix on rent seeking behavior in innovation markets.

It's a good step, but gets something key wrong, that is the DPT matrix here isn't "rent seeking propertization against cooperation" but "rent on innovation against rent on channel."

That is new companies have innovations they want to rent to others, old companies have things like brand equity. The innovator wants to pry open the channel in order to gain rental advantage over later waves of innovators and to liquidate previous rents. Large competitors are willing to give ideas away for free, in order to protect channel. Under this matrix regime there is a dominant strategy for socially best outcomes only if there is a means to amortize rent from channel over the same time match as the rent from intellectual capital.

To see this consider innovators and channel holders as rent seekers with a strategic matrix. That means they can cooperate in rent behavior, they can non-cooperate.

This produces a strategic matrix. Since the pay off in rent is based on the ability of each to deny payment to the other, without securing payment for themselves, (lemma: show that rent seeking behavior is compliance dependent, and therefore relies on adverse suicide) we can then say the matrix is neither a stag hunt nor a prisoner's dilemma, since benefit relies solely on the other's action.

Instead the matrix is a cooperation game. For the first moving player then, there must be feedback to cooperation. Example, the ultimatum game, the first player offers so much of an initial payout, but only keeps any of it, if the offer is accepted. Now take a population of players with N as their "bottom line." In a single iteration game, the advantage is for first players to seek partners with the lowest N. To simply take an initial of 10. This is the channel owner, think IBM, or Harper's Weekly, or any thing with a channel that must find ideas to sell down that channel, but which can charge for the channel itself. Take a population of innovators. The first strategy is to suck dry the innovators who will accept the lowest payment. The creators who will create for the joy of it. However, this reduces to the classic fool/grudge paradigm. First all the fools are burned through, and the non-cooperating first players clean up, then the fools all go broke - they run out of money and leave the game. When this happens what is left are grudges, and the grudges hate the channel providers that ripped them off with consistently low offers.

So the first round of the "screw them" strategy will go through all the low N matrix players.

Now iterate, with each round the lowest innovators will first get the money, then crash. Thus a constant round of chaos for the channel provider. But since the value of a channel is consistency, the coalition of Low offer/low accept innovative rent regimes will occupy the channel niche where newness itself is the value of the channel. Think the record business, which sells two to three albums by the latest androgenous boy band or flat chested vixen, then tosses them out. They just need fresh faces. This then is the "innovator cooperates, channel provider betrays" model - since the innovator is never getting enough for rent. The innovator hopes that the strategy matrix is a mixed strategy: offer for free, get a rental advantage which can then be charged for. This is a low percentage strategy. For every writer, singer, actor who makes it, most splatter. For this strategy to work then fractal of the iterated matrix must have an inflection point which is exogenous to the game, that is the dead variables of pay off have to change. This is the first indication that the single iteration version of this game is insufficient.

Another strategy is for channel providers to seek those like themeselves, that is cooperators. They will offer enough from the beginning. However they can be betrayed, first if the innovator doesn't actually offer an innovation, for example if the supposed innovator is really a channel provider that is playing the "screw them" game and hopes to arbitrage cheap ideas into expensive ideas by channel ownership. Think a venture capitalist. This can only be enforced by multiple pays, and the exogenous output is the return.

The third strategy is high N innovators. Innovators that make a high offer the price of playing with them, this can only work if there are enough plays or enough channel owners, or an exogenous input of the amount given.

This creates then the full fractal: the initial offer must be seen as being an input of previous offer/acceptance strategies, or there must be an input from exogenous sources.

Therefore the inflection in the matrix is the variation in exogenous input, and the relationship of that payment to time. This creates the match in time of innovation to time to channel.


Stirling Newberry December 19, 2008 - 5:56am
( categories: Miscellany )

In his case, he was a 'high N' innovator. He was so ahead of the competition in creating siege engines or various rube-Goldberg implements of death that his only real threat was espionage. Hence he took to writing everything backwards (partially because he was left handed) and he would tell clients outright that the plans he showed them were always missing a crucial element so that they couldn't try to crib something together based on the rough concept.

I think it might have been Francis Bacon who first really took on the divide between dissemination of 'free' knowledge and securing and secreting 'proprietary' knowledge.

This seems like the primary question for the Web, where we've seen people willing to give away analysis and knowledge that were previously up for sale. The question is "when will the fools be burned through?"

KingElvis December 19, 2008 - 12:01pm

This seems like the primary question for the Web, where we've seen people willing to give away analysis and knowledge that were previously up for sale.

Somehow I do not tell everything either :-)

Most of analysis available is really entertainment or propaganda. If it had a price earlier doesn't mean that it was usable information. This applies especially to what media spreads: mostly out of date gossips.

Difficult to understand analysis has the inherent cost: few are intelligent enough to decipher it.

I think a good example of information propagation on the internet was the predictions of the outcome of the presidential election. Most of the free pundit sites were good but maybe none of them was excellent. Let's classify them as entertainment and propaganda. Usually impractical academics did better than pundits. Intrade betting showed what the best non-public pundits picked out of their black-box models and insider information.

Or stock analysis is a good example too. Sell-side crap is for the public and buy-side analysis is for proprietary trading. Often people working on the sell-side have not been told that there is something like buy-side. They can be as isolated from the buy-side as the public. I haven't read "Liar's poker" but I think that it was written by somebody working on sell-side who maybe didn't comprehend fully how the industry works. And often people have to pay for sell-side crap.

-- Storm brings only richness with it

Singular December 20, 2008 - 3:01am

One example.

I do a lot of research about cars using vintage sales brochures. People are selling them on Ebay and so forth for like $10. But there are some other websites that are simply scanning and posting them (apparantly the fact that they were given away in showrooms means there isn't a need to pay publishing royalties - at least it appears that way). You don't get the actual tactile product, but all the information is there - I suppose you could print them out and have them laminated or something.

The point is, I'm getting something I really value, and have/will pay money for at swap meets or car museums - for free.

KingElvis December 23, 2008 - 11:56am

Very applicble to WalMart, and Woolworths before WalMart.

IBM's failure in the late 80s was that internally IBM do not value its channel. The "internal innovators" controlled the channel. Not the revenue generators.

Synoia December 19, 2008 - 1:28pm

depends on exogenous payout factor, the endogenous payout factor, and the relative cost factors. Assuming, over time, that the parties involved will know what all of these are, or have a good guess.

So to go over it. Imagine the ulimatum game played over many trials, with a difference, as an iterative game, the amount the first player gets is determined by a hidden dead variable, namely the value of the innovator. Let us also assume that innovators can signal what bid they would generally accept, or that offer costs are low enough to amount to the same thing:

If the channel owner knows it's revenue isn't altered over time, and it knows that it doesn't matter much which innovator it selects, then it will simply low ball every innovator, and grab the next crop as it comes up.

If the channel owner knows that it's revenue is altered by the innovators it picks, it may still lowball, but it will only do so after lowballing and it sees the revenue drop.

If the channel owner knows that it's revenue is altered by innovators it picks, and that the value of an innovator grows over time to it, it will try and mix, have as few high priced innovators as it needs, and then make lowball offers.

Now let's add a second element: burn. Burn doesn't change innovator tactics much, because their pay off is always when their hidden variable pays out. But it does change channel tactics a great deal, because the channel must now get enough innovators before it's burn takes over. At that point it stops lowballing, because offering has a cost.

A third element, whereby players know the results, after some delay, of previous offers, will then create phases. Lowballing channel operators will attract low payment innovators with no track record. Higher paying channel operators will attract innovators with a track record, and so on.

Stirling Newberry December 19, 2008 - 3:39pm

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