Peter Bernstein: Make the poor pay


Make the buggers pay back every cent. One of the most important driving factors of bad policy into the Great Depression, was the drive to force people to pay back loans taken with cheap money, in the new much more expensive deflated money. Perhaps people would get additional time, but in the end, Hoover's mantra was "they hired the money, didn't they?" Hooverism is alive and well.

Home prices as consumption must fall to a sustainable fraction of GDP, this means after shifting approximately 5% of GDP from internal consumption to exports. Or, roughly, a further 35% fall in the value of rent of equivalent structure. The only way to hold home prices up, is to increase their value as capital. To this end Freddie and Fannie should change mortgage regulations such that communities that have ordinances that prevent home based businesses be listed as "non-conforming." One of the largest projects that we face is turning homes from consumption to capital. That means universal fibre with unlimited bandwidth, that means people working from home 2 days a week, and that means more and more home based work.

Without this, home prices can be propped up artificially, but this only creates a transfer of wealth from the young, who must either pay higher home prices, or higher rents. It also doesn't work because artificially high home prices mean that there is still a huge incentive by developers to build new homes. The government ends up holding homes that can't sell, while developers build new ones. Localities will want the "jobs" and tax base.

Incentives matter, and the market for homes has to settle to the level where it clears. This of course is exactly what the current situation fears, because of all the paper money pegged to fake home values.
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Stirling Newberry November 9, 2008 - 1:31pm
( categories: Miscellany )

Everyone with half an economic brain knows that the only ways to "bounce back" from this crisis is either to let debts that cannot be paid default or reflate, creating even greater economic challenges that will have to be fought down the line with less ammo. Let's get on with it, without looking back and trying to recapture a past that is lost to time.

The ancient Hebrew sages knew this when they mandated a forgiveness of debt after a certain period (seven years), and both Islam and early Christianity outlaw usury. Maybe the prophets of old knew something, and weren't just hearing whispers in their heads.

The fact is that the present socio-economic system is structured on an energy source that is at end of life. This is actually good because cheap oil is only only cheap because market price does not reflect true cost, which includes resource depletion as a charge against the future and pollution as a negative externality. Rather than being taken into account by the market, these liabilities against the future are being socialized by past and present generations. Fortunately, it is being acknowledge that this trend is no longer sustainable for long.

The most important factor to realize and acknowledge politically and economically is that humanity is entering a transition from one energy system to another. This is going to profoundly change the way things are done at all levels. For example, the new highways are going to be digital rather than concrete. Clearly, steps like facilitating digital home business is a step in the right direction under these circumstances, stemming principally from the sprawl economy that is dependent on cheap oil.

tjfxh November 9, 2008 - 4:56pm

California communities are already cutting cops because the $200,000 a year price tag is becoming too much. Obama might subsidize this cost for a while to delay the buyer's remorse for a few years.

In general, I think that inflation will kick in and take away whatever gains people claimed since, for example, Los Angeles now has a 10%+ sales tax.

So, morally, housing prices should fall; over stretched mortgage holders should let go and let the economic system work again.

mrmx November 9, 2008 - 5:01pm

Cops have amazing benefits packages, especially retirement. Full pay after 20 years on the job.

Synoia November 9, 2008 - 5:33pm

To this end Freddie and Fannie should change mortgage regulations such that communities that have ordinances that prevent home based businesses be listed as "non-conforming."

This would save a fortune on car related expenses.

Synoia November 9, 2008 - 5:32pm

Hope it catches on!

mbento November 9, 2008 - 11:55pm

The best solution proposed so far has been from Sheila C. Bair, the chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Under this proposal, servicers of mortgages would rewrite outstanding mortgages to a more affordable level for the homeowner by lowering the principal amount owed, by reducing the interest rate, by extending the maturity — which would reduce monthly payments — or by combining these steps. In addition, the government would share a portion of the losses in these mortgages if they went into default.

to

"Make the buggers pay back every cent".

I'm not disputing the equivalence- I certainly am not an economics expert- I just don't see them as the same. Can you expand on that?



Yes, I can come up with a post-election signature, just... not... yet...

nymole November 9, 2008 - 6:25pm

are very small, and end up "improving the condition of the banks" according to their own numbers. That is, they are going to recover more, on average, than before the face value reductions.

Now, given that she's running the FDIC, this is her mandate, to recover asset value. However, the result for the average home owner is going to be an increase in what they are going to pay over the life of the loan adjusted for inflation.

Better is a reduction/lien combination, with larger face deductions, and a government recapture on sale or transfer.

Stirling Newberry November 9, 2008 - 10:29pm

eom



Yes, I can come up with a post-election signature, just... not... yet...

nymole November 9, 2008 - 11:49pm

Now, given that she's running the FDIC, this is her mandate, to recover asset value. However, the result for the average home owner is going to be an increase in what they are going to pay over the life of the loan adjusted for inflation.

This is not going to be lost on a lot of people who are underwater on their mortgages. As deflation picks up speed and money becomes more valuable (scarce), many are going to reject what they perceive as a raw deal by defaulting "as a business decision" if they see it working out to their advantage. There are also going to be more mortgages challenged on the grounds of misrepresentation, fraud, and predatory lending if recovering asset value becomes the perceived criterion instead of a fair deal.

Value is disappearing and no one wants to be the sucker who pays.

tjfxh November 10, 2008 - 12:23am

China Announced Massive Stimulus Package

Will other G20 countries follow suit? It's tiresome to see the financial industry being rewarded and workers being left out while recessions globalize. Makes sense rather for countries to offer desperately needed jobs to workers being displaced by the downturn in economies. Seems an ideal partnership...jobs for workers and badly needed infrastructure being rebuilt. And stupid to keep rewarding lenders and central bankers who created the mess!

It isn't the poor that should pay! What they need most is government funding so they can eat and be able to afford to put a roof over their head regardless of country in which they live.

canuck November 10, 2008 - 12:27am

it is very important news.

Stirling Newberry November 10, 2008 - 7:59am

The Chinese government will take a different tack that is more "socialistic" not because they are more benevolent but because their greatest fear is social unrest that could lead to a popular uprising.

On the other hand, the US takes its predictable course of rewarding greed and stupidity at the top because its greatest fear is that the ownership class that is in control of the nation's wealth will lose asset value. Well, I guess that is "social unrest" of a different sort.

tjfxh November 10, 2008 - 11:47am

Speculation on motivation is largely pointless. "Fear of social unrest," could as easily be construed as a genuine desire to provide for "social harmony." All we really need to know are acts and their likely consequences.

The Chinese government seems to be doing what most of the progressives I trust are recommending that we do here, but which are highly unlikely. See Ian's posts over at firedoglake. http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/09/what-economic-change-we-can-believe-in-would-look-like/

It might be pure self-interest on the Chinese leadership's part but it looks pretty damned enlightened from this perspective.

hvd November 10, 2008 - 12:03pm

I apologize to the Chinese leadership for impugning their motives. My comment was obviously one-sided, as you point out. It makes out the Chinese leadership as fundamentally an oppressive regime and that is not my belief and it is not the impression I wanted to create. Obviously, there are a lot of motives that go into political decision-making.

My considered opinion is that there are both positive and negative motivators involved, and I am certainly willing to admit that the Chinese system is based on values that they deem consistent with their national character, just as the US follows similar but different principles. I do not think that either the US leadership or the Chinese leadership is made up of people who are chiefly disingenuous self-serving. Nor are they perfect, either. Oliver Stone attempted to portray W in this light of complexity that makes for the dramatic form known as tragedy, in which the protagonist is a person with a tragic flaw who rises to a position of greatness and falls due to it. As Aristotle observes, tragic figures evoke fear and pity, since they bring out something of the human condition to which all can relate.

In every political decision, different interests must be weighed in the balance. The down-side is also an important factor in calculation, both here in the US and there in China, and that becomes a negative reinforcement along with positive ones.

tjfxh November 10, 2008 - 1:44pm

I caught some flak for calling Dubya a "tragic figure" less than a month ago. 'Course, the flak didn't really affect the truth of the matter at all :D


"The best-informed man is not necessarily the wisest. Indeed there is a danger that precisely in the multiplicity of his knowledge he will lose sight of what is essential."

- Dietrich Bonhoeffer

Escher Sketch November 10, 2008 - 3:42pm

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