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Peter Bernstein: Make the poor payMake the buggers pay back every cent. One of the most important driving factors of bad policy into the Great Depression, was the drive to force people to pay back loans taken with cheap money, in the new much more expensive deflated money. Perhaps people would get additional time, but in the end, Hoover's mantra was "they hired the money, didn't they?" Hooverism is alive and well. Home prices as consumption must fall to a sustainable fraction of GDP, this means after shifting approximately 5% of GDP from internal consumption to exports. Or, roughly, a further 35% fall in the value of rent of equivalent structure. The only way to hold home prices up, is to increase their value as capital. To this end Freddie and Fannie should change mortgage regulations such that communities that have ordinances that prevent home based businesses be listed as "non-conforming." One of the largest projects that we face is turning homes from consumption to capital. That means universal fibre with unlimited bandwidth, that means people working from home 2 days a week, and that means more and more home based work. Without this, home prices can be propped up artificially, but this only creates a transfer of wealth from the young, who must either pay higher home prices, or higher rents. It also doesn't work because artificially high home prices mean that there is still a huge incentive by developers to build new homes. The government ends up holding homes that can't sell, while developers build new ones. Localities will want the "jobs" and tax base. Incentives matter, and the market for homes has to settle to the level where it clears. This of course is exactly what the current situation fears, because of all the paper money pegged to fake home values. Stirling Newberry November 9, 2008 - 1:31pm
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