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Looking at the mapOne strange effect of this campaign is that at a certain point, McCain became a protest candidate. When he could run on letting voters send a message that Obama had best be watchful, or careful, or express their doubts about Obama, he moved up. Races tightened. And then someone would say "It looks like McCain has a chance!" And suddenly McCain would slide again. The voters don't want McCain to be President, or even given a chance of slipping through the door. If the question before the public is "Do you want McCain to be President?" then the answer is a resounding negative. This is why McCain's last surge has already produced a final backlash. While many Republicans have come home to the Republican Party, it is not out of the question for Montana and North Dakota to go for Obama. North Carolina and Florida are within his reach, as is Arizona, Missouri, Indiana and Georgia. THe worst case scenario for McCain, with last minutes breaking against him, leaves him on the short end of 406-132 landslide. His best case, grabbing back both North Carolina and Florida at the last gasp, would mean he would score a respectable 227 electoral votes. My numbers? I haven't been doing them closely, but a run through the spreadsheets shows Obama at 364: Gore plus VA, NC, OH, IN, NH, NV - and McCain therefore at 174. I think there is more upside for Obama, and that Florida is the weakest link in that list. I would not be surprise if Obama carries AZ. I would be surprised if he carries MO. The Senate has come down in this last batch of numbers to a nail biter in Minnesota, with Coleman and Franken ahead in different surveys and a large bloc for the independent that may go tactical, a race in North Carolina that has broken away from Liddy Dole, her attack ads backfiring, and a set of long shots: Georgia and Kentucky. If there is a Democratic tidal wave, Mississippi and Texas could see some action. One of the most important effects is that Obama is winning Kerry states by wide margins. he has not had to seriously campaign in Michigan, Wisconsin, and a host of other states which were close for Kerry. He is comfortably ahead in New Hampshire, and can feel good about how Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico are going. Virginia looks comfortable. The race is tightening in Pennsylvania, in the sense that McCain has gotten to the point where if he had two more months and was willing to throw the rest of the country away, he'd have an even chance. This still leaves execution on the ground, but Obama's machine is very well funded, and has not made mistakes since losing control of the process in the Nevada caucuses. But this leads into another reality: much of the Democratic advantage this election is money. It makes it clear just how much money advantage has given us the Republican era of dominance, because in the two elections where the money has gone the other way, the Democratic Party has racked up very large gains. However, each time, the money has flowed back to the Republican Party, and that has helped establish the pattern of Democrats sweeping up after a parade of 'phants, only to be replaced when it comes time to loot the treasury. That the Democrats are, for the second time, coming into power with all three houses, and not putting public financing of campaigns on the top of the list, is a clear sign that they aren't thinking clearly. Stirling Newberry November 3, 2008 - 7:12pm
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