Looking at the map


One strange effect of this campaign is that at a certain point, McCain became a protest candidate. When he could run on letting voters send a message that Obama had best be watchful, or careful, or express their doubts about Obama, he moved up. Races tightened. And then someone would say "It looks like McCain has a chance!" And suddenly McCain would slide again. The voters don't want McCain to be President, or even given a chance of slipping through the door. If the question before the public is "Do you want McCain to be President?" then the answer is a resounding negative. This is why McCain's last surge has already produced a final backlash. While many Republicans have come home to the Republican Party, it is not out of the question for Montana and North Dakota to go for Obama. North Carolina and Florida are within his reach, as is Arizona, Missouri, Indiana and Georgia. THe worst case scenario for McCain, with last minutes breaking against him, leaves him on the short end of 406-132 landslide. His best case, grabbing back both North Carolina and Florida at the last gasp, would mean he would score a respectable 227 electoral votes.

My numbers? I haven't been doing them closely, but a run through the spreadsheets shows Obama at 364: Gore plus VA, NC, OH, IN, NH, NV - and McCain therefore at 174. I think there is more upside for Obama, and that Florida is the weakest link in that list. I would not be surprise if Obama carries AZ. I would be surprised if he carries MO.

The Senate has come down in this last batch of numbers to a nail biter in Minnesota, with Coleman and Franken ahead in different surveys and a large bloc for the independent that may go tactical, a race in North Carolina that has broken away from Liddy Dole, her attack ads backfiring, and a set of long shots: Georgia and Kentucky. If there is a Democratic tidal wave, Mississippi and Texas could see some action.

One of the most important effects is that Obama is winning Kerry states by wide margins. he has not had to seriously campaign in Michigan, Wisconsin, and a host of other states which were close for Kerry. He is comfortably ahead in New Hampshire, and can feel good about how Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico are going. Virginia looks comfortable. The race is tightening in Pennsylvania, in the sense that McCain has gotten to the point where if he had two more months and was willing to throw the rest of the country away, he'd have an even chance.

This still leaves execution on the ground, but Obama's machine is very well funded, and has not made mistakes since losing control of the process in the Nevada caucuses. But this leads into another reality: much of the Democratic advantage this election is money. It makes it clear just how much money advantage has given us the Republican era of dominance, because in the two elections where the money has gone the other way, the Democratic Party has racked up very large gains. However, each time, the money has flowed back to the Republican Party, and that has helped establish the pattern of Democrats sweeping up after a parade of 'phants, only to be replaced when it comes time to loot the treasury. That the Democrats are, for the second time, coming into power with all three houses, and not putting public financing of campaigns on the top of the list, is a clear sign that they aren't thinking clearly.


Stirling Newberry November 3, 2008 - 7:12pm
( categories: Miscellany )

In the presidential, it looks like the Democratic money advantage is all small donors. If you go back to Super Tuesday, and aggregate the Dem big money and the Rep big money, the Dem advantage I'll bet was around 4:3. After the field was set in April though, I'll bet that big money flowed to the obvious winner, which was the only candidate scooping up hundreds of millions of small dollars.

In the House and Senate though, I'd guess that you're right that the entire DCCC and DSCC advantage was big and mostly corporate money from those with interests before the committees. The "small donor revolution" has probably not even scratched the Congress. Big private donors may have gone Dem in 06 and 07 for ideological reasons, but that's not much of a consolation prize. They could always go back, and you can't rest a good economic policy on the goodwill of Lewis and Buffet.

As you can tell from my language in this comment though, I don't actually know these things from having examined the data with these specific questions in mind. These are just my impressions from the last couple years of newsreading.

I certainly hope that you're not completely right though. The small donors did play a significant role in selecting the winner of both the Democratic primary and the general presidential election. That's only two elections of many this cycle, but they were the two most important ones.

texas dem November 3, 2008 - 7:54pm

Are more virtuous than big donors, but that still leaves the no donors with less of a say.

We have the market to determine the money outcome of preferences. The political system should be based on equality of access.

Stirling Newberry November 3, 2008 - 7:58pm

The political system should be based on equality of access.

I think there is going to be a public outcry to fix the election process from campaigning, to voter registration, to actual voting, and to vote tabulation. The TV coverage has been revealing, and the many exposés that have gained wide circulation on the net have been also.

But political equality is probably not going to be maximal anytime soon unless legalized bribery in the form of campaign finance and lobbying is at least restrained to a minimum. A billion dollars spent on a presidential bid is ridiculous.

All human beings are equal as persons, but they are not of the same weight. Politically, some people are a lot weightier than others. The question is whether this weightiness is determined by wealth, power and privilege, or by character and ability.

tjfxh November 3, 2008 - 8:19pm

I can't maintain this 'militancy' for eight more years.

We need structural reforms like re-imposition of the Fairness Doctrine and public financing.

I keep coming back to this worry that Obama will - as you say here - be a 'reset button' presidency, that will just bring us back to 1998.

I worry that he'll be Clinton II, paying down the debt - essentially being an 'honest' conservative.

He's got to remember he has the people behind him when the Wall Street boys sit him down (like Bob Rubin in '93) and tell him how it's gonna be.

KingElvis November 3, 2008 - 7:59pm

looks pretty good to me after 8 years of bush.

I did inhale.

Don November 3, 2008 - 8:28pm

and see what the upgrade to a TARDIS costs...

Stirling Newberry November 4, 2008 - 5:51pm

but it's time to be a *lot* more ambitious. Just putting it back to "the way it didn't work properly before", which were the conditions that produced the Bush/Cheney interregnum, is in nobody's interest. You deserve better.

One ding too many on an old, rusty fender; put away the Bondo, it's time for a new fender.


"The best-informed man is not necessarily the wisest. Indeed there is a danger that precisely in the multiplicity of his knowledge he will lose sight of what is essential."

- Dietrich Bonhoeffer

Escher Sketch November 4, 2008 - 6:27pm

I think that is the signal that Rober Rubin was sending today by co-writing an op-ed piece with progressive economist Jared Bernstein.

tjfxh November 3, 2008 - 8:31pm

Obama will inherit quite the mess.

Not everything can be blamed on bush either.

But it's hard to understate how bad a president he has been.

Worst in my lifetime.

I did inhale.

Don November 3, 2008 - 9:07pm

agreed.

have you seen hugh's list?

http://www.netrootsmass.net/hughs-bush-scandals-list/

selise November 3, 2008 - 9:41pm

Hundreds of cases of criminality, malfeasance, fraud, abuse of power - where would a new president conceivably start? It would be so much easier not to investigate or prosecute so many offenses.

Numerian November 4, 2008 - 1:51am

One is to try and get to that magic land where we put up houses and people bought the debt from making them, and allowed us to by toys and tvs with the money. And if we all just wish reaaaaally hard the Great Pumpkin will come and distribute unity ponies to everyone.

The other is to actually work through the mess. Signs are that Obama and much of the Democratic Congress will try the first. So figure 2020 some time when there's a chance for real change. Maybe 2016 if the Republicans defeat Obama early and elect a real stiff.

Stirling Newberry November 4, 2008 - 7:47am

I don't want them to be defeated at the polls, or even crushed. I want them to dissolve themselves, to march off in the history books as America's most dangerous, anti-American, incompetent, divisive, pernicious political force ever, unfit even to be a party in perpetual opposition. They have inflicted the greatest amount of damage on America, both long term and short term, of any political party in our history. They deserve oblivion, or obloquy of the most severe kind if we must be reminded of them.

Maybe today the voters will start this process by sending them into permanent exile. It is conceivable; the Republicans may be so imbued with racial prejudice, intolerance and especially hypocrisy that they can no longer field a slate of candidates who will appeal to the general voter. If they are sent to the penalty box as a party that can only survive in the old Confederacy, let us hope no one arises who reshapes them into a multi-cultural political force ready to compete on the national stage. They don't deserve a comeback, and the rest of us don't deserve putting up with them ever again.

Numerian November 4, 2008 - 8:41am

That would be like saying you want Germany to be dissolved for allowing the Nazis to take over.

Democrats were also spineless in their role as the opposition party. It goes beyond that. They enabled the Neocons.

Some Republicans--Ron Paul and Chuck Hagel come to mind--fought bush tooth and nail. There are decent people in the Republican party and they won't be going away.

Prediction: one of Obama's biggest hurdles will be a Democratically controlled congress.

Corporate powers sensed the changing of the tide and have been forking money into the Democratic party with front end loaders.

I did inhale.

Don November 4, 2008 - 9:13am

They can go elsewhere, supporting a new conservative party that believes in the Constitution. It is the Republican politicians, with the very few moderate exceptions who have yet to be purged from the party, who need to go home and find some other line of work.

Numerian November 4, 2008 - 11:07am

...

ww November 4, 2008 - 9:14am

I've heard him address energy issues and he has also spoken of an infrastructure development program. So I'm waiting before passing judgement.

He did flunk the bailout (takeover) test.

The democratically controlled congress on the other hand has shown a propensity to do exactly as you say. Afraid of stepping on someone's toes (as in bush and his cohorts).

In the end, congress will be tasked with much of the heavy lifting.

If they don't get it right, I fully expect Republicans to regain control after two years.

Momentum from bush's policies will be hard to overcome (the worst is yet to come) and the public will become impatient with Obama.

I did inhale.

Don November 4, 2008 - 9:00am

my friend Hugh has been keeping that list so that no one has an excuse to forget. i guess that includes a new president.

selise November 4, 2008 - 9:03am

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