Is It Cool to Be Shrill Yet?


The Republicans have been spewing the idea that welfare queen mortgages caused the collapse. David Goldstien and Kevin G Hill drive a stake through this one. It is direct racism, and anyone who speaks it is knowingly pimping racism. This includes noted Darwin Denier, Ben Stein. His father was, at least, a serious economist. Stein is simply a racist hack.

Key talking points from the debunking article:

Federal Reserve Board data show that:

_ More than 84 percent of the subprime mortgages in 2006 were issued by private lending institutions.

_ Private firms made nearly 83 percent of the subprime loans to low- and moderate-income borrowers that year.

_ Only one of the top 25 subprime lenders in 2006 was directly subject to the housing law that's being lambasted by conservative critics.

The explosion in subprime was an explosion in a credit bubble, and a direct policy, backed by Greenspan and Bush, to expand home ownership rapidly, combined with a complete lack of enforcement of even existing regulations.

Next up, Ms. O'Leary's cow did not cause the Chicago Fire, and the moon is not made of green cheese.

Anyone could see that this would be the case from the Fed's charts of high foreclosure and deliquent loan rates: there was no overlap in these areas and high minority areas, or high/low income borrowers. Instead, there was a strong overlap in the areas hit first by the current down turn: Las Vegas figured prominently, as did the chronically depressed areas of central California, which have seen high unemployment rates.

The data also reveal some important things about how the proliferation of "exotic" mortgage products contributed to the disaster. Many of these products should have been outlawed from the start. For example, teaser rate loans with balloon payments; who gets such loans?

• People trying to flip. That is people who think they will be long gone. No reason to allow this since pushing homes is a policy, not a market decision. Don't let people speculate on policy choices. Simple sanity rule.

• People who can be confused by the rate. Information asymmetry. Should not be allowed.

• People betting on refinancing. Again, not something that people should be allowed to make leveraged bets on with a home.

Hence, there is no reason for these products to exist, since the people getting them, and the people selling them, were confused, or evil, or both.

It is important to remember that assets, and houses in particular, were the monetary base. That is, they were the ruler against which all other things in the global economy were measured. If there was enough activity to support US housing, then there was enough activity to support everything else. This relationship is destroyed, and with it the foundations of that system. It was a system in trouble even before this, and that trouble created an incentive to bum rush the door.

Which is exactly what happened. Are we allowed to be shrill yet? I mean seriously. The policy of trying to inflate the monetary base, and thereby the money supply, was always dangerously misguided. Had either Greenspan or Bernanke even believed in their own professed beliefs, for example Greenspan's declaration that he wanted a "gold standard in practice" or Bernanke's own declarations of holding to inflation targets, then this would not have happened. The definition of an ideological hack, is that he hacks his own ideology to pieces when it is convenient.

Now we are on the other side, and it is a different environment. For one thing Bernanke has lost control of monetary policy, the Fed can not presently enforce it's preferred overnight rate, and yet cannot abandon it's policy of low rates, lest it cause an economic downturn which spirals out of control. While there is no formal definition of depression worthy of the name, I will over one: a recessionary period with deflationary pressures that have no tendency to equilibrium. A depression, then should be defined as a recession which has gotten out of control.

The time to have had a controlled recession was sometime ago. There was a last ditch moment last year where a dramatic increase in interest rates, coupled with broad government action, could have managed a controlled collapse. Instead, we got a botched strong dollar play. This began just after the Bear bail out, and was announced at the time. Bernanke contracted M3, but allowed M1 to slowly expand, Congress went along for the ride by passing an inflationary stimulus package, and the result was a ride up the inflation mountain, and then a sharp fall. This was, in effect, Rubinomics in reverse. But instead of engineering a dollar drought which affected other economies and bolstered American buying power, thus lowering resource costs, while increasing the value of exports where the US has absolute advantage, it did the reverse: the US was the country which had been over-consuming, and was over-dependent on hot money to keep the whole thing lubricated. Instead of the credit crunch hitting Mexico, or Argentina, or even Korea, it hit here. With dramatic results.

And here, being that it is the US banking system, meant everywhere. That's what I was told long ago when I proposed an attack on the dollar as a market strategy, an older, much wiser, individual said "and where will you put your gains?"

Now some people are advocates generally of stronger or weaker dollars. The strong dollar people point to the power of dollar diplomacy, the ability to use it as leverage for development arbitrage, and therefore imposing our preferred policies on other nations, and the stability of the dollar as a basis for confidence. The weak dollar people believe that a weaker dollar will force conservation of oil, since it will rise in price, and encourage exports, since American goods will be cheaper. For myself, I believe that one should always be thinking in trade offs. Is a stronger dollar the effect of policies that need to be pursued? Do the costs of currency movements swamp other benefits? If the US needs to raise interest rates, then raise then, and accept the results of a strong dollar. If the US needs to lower interest rates, then lower them, and accept the results of a weaker dollar. If currency effects negate the effects of policy then recognize that.

In general this flows from the basic relationships of open currency macroëconomics. In general, currency changes should be part of the equilibrium of a trading system. Economies that attract investment should see their currencies rise, economies that are raising interest rates to combat inflation should see their currencies rise to encourage importing cheaper goods. Economies that are lowering interest rates to promote growth should see their currencies fall until the growth materializes. The currency movements should be an effect, not a cause, of policy, and a means of stabilizing, not destabilizing, the balance between economies in a trading system. That, at least, is a faith in markets: that movements will be offset by equilibrium generating counter forces, which will eventually bring the production and consumption of an economic system into a dynamic balance.

This is not to say that strengthening or weakening a currency is off limits, merely that as a policy tool, it needs to be handled with greater care than simply as a cheap way of controlling inflation or promoting exports as a backdoor tariff. Still less should devaluation be used as a tax. Instead, monetary policy makers should thwart, rather than encourage, anomalies in consumption patterns that currencies cause. The US did the reverse, despite repeated warnings from the IMF and others. More Shrill, I know.

But we are all shrill now. At least, any time a central banker is quoted as saying that we have pass this bill or "we may not have an economy by Monday," shrill is, officially, policy.

And as for people like BS... they need to be ushered off the stage. Or relegated to Fox News where people like Cavuto can wave the burning cross openly with statements like:

"I don't remember a clarion call that said Fannie and Freddie are a disaster. Loaning to minorities and risky folks is a disaster."


Stirling Newberry October 12, 2008 - 2:14am

...hero worship crap with Greenspan? He was the leader of the band; off with his head and no place in the Pantheon.
On a serious note though; O'Leary's cow didn't do it and the moon? Not...; god I can't even say it! I can't bare it. I have to go fetal and suck my thumb.

Celsius 233 October 12, 2008 - 5:34am

was very good at keeping this stuff going as long as he did. And, like Tony Blair, he knew when to get the hell out.

Stirling Newberry October 12, 2008 - 6:04am

I particularly detest the racist implications of the CRA argument, because the talk is about "poor", "unqualified" borrowers but the connotation is the old "black, welfare queen" whipping post. I regularly visit the small grocery near my place of employment that is as white as white gets (where a moose might wander into the yard and people talk like Sarah Palin). It is not uncommon for multiple people in front of me to use their "bridge card" to pay for groceries. Now i grew up in and around Detroit, so i know what food stamps are...and i don't care if they're called by any other name.

And i have heard conversations between these people bemoaning how inner-city, welfare blacks are destroying America...as the person proffers their welfare subsidy to pay for white bread and corn syrup goodies.

Granted, a sub-prime is probably not necessary to buy a used trailer, but it is still a case of the pot calling the kettle black.

Lex October 12, 2008 - 10:09am

Fannie and Freddie were effectively shut down by their regulator, OFHEO, in 2004 because their accounting was flawed and their hedges didn't work. Until that point, they had guaranteed and securitized "conforming" mortgages, which had strict limits on downpayments, size, verification of applicant income and assets, and restrictions on structure.

This is all a matter of record. Anyone can see this by looking at the GSE annual reports from 2004 to 2007. Around 2006 the two GSEs were allowed back in the market with somewhat looser limits, and their management took the fateful step of investing in subprime mortgages that went well beyond their conforming mortgage standards for what they guaranteed and securitized. If was these subprime mortgages, originated by Wall Street, that killed these two GSE - that and their perpetual lack of capital.

It is also easy to see that in 2004 a cottage industry sprung up orchestrated by Wall Street investment banks, who teemed up with mortgage brokers around the country to begin originating subprime mortgages, plus jumbos and other mortgages that had strange new features like option ARMs, pick-and-pay loans, and NINJAs, many of which required zero downpayment (the borrower could borrow the down payment from a second party). This is where 84% of the mortgages since 2004 came from. If you look at the securities that are in trouble now, with nearly 50% defaulting mortgages, they have features like these. Frannie and Freddie mortgages dated before 2004 are not having serious delinquency issues.

Since this is all a matter of fact and record, we have to conclude that Ben Stein, Limbaugh, McCain, Hannity, the WSJ, and the Republican noise machine are knowingly presenting a false picture of reality. It's what they do. You can call it politics, but it will continue after the election. It is primarily intended to shift blame away from themselves and on to the Democrats, since they were the big supporters of the GSEs. Plus, conveniently, a black guy ran Fannie in the 1990s so his picture can be used in scary commercials about Obama.

Becoming shrill about this deception is certainly required, though it is not clear that will stop it. We will go at least another 25 years with this "debate" raging, and you can't defeat it because if you did they which just yell louder to "teach the controversy". This happened after the Vietnam war; revisionist history said the war was lost at home and could have otherwise been won. McCain is saying the same thing now and bases his Iraq strategy precisely on that deception. He wants to stay in Iraq until we "win", to prove that would have worked in Vietnam.

So we have in front of us the first foundations of the Republicans-in-exile noise machine. Until the noise machine itself is destroyed, you will continue to have the public confused and misled, and at some point this terrible policy choice will be repeated because no one will have learned any lessons.

Numerian October 12, 2008 - 10:12am

A questons for those who blame the CRA

30 Years since the CRA was passed, and after 30 years it causes a meltdown? Why did it take so long?

Synoia October 12, 2008 - 10:28am

I will over one: a recessionary period with deflationary pressures that have no tendency to equilibrium. A depression, then should be defined as a recession which has gotten out of control.

This is often called spiraling deflation. It is the worst nightmare because it is very difficult to brake, let alone turn around.

tjfxh October 12, 2008 - 11:24am

Der Spiegel International
10/10/2008 06:44 PM
INTERVIEW WITH NOAM CHOMSKY

The linguist and public intellectual Noam Chomsky has long been a critic of American consumerism and imperialism. SPIEGEL spoke to him about the current crisis of capitalism, Barack Obama's rhetoric and the compliance of the intellectual class.

SPIEGEL: Professor Chomsky, cathedrals of capitalism have collapsed, the conservative government is spending its final weeks in office with nationalization plans. How does that make you feel?

Chomsky: The times are too difficult and the crisis too severe to indulge in schadenfreude. Looking at it in perspective, the fact that there would be a financial crisis was perfectly predictable, its general nature, if not its magnitude. Markets are always inefficient.

SPIEGEL: What exactly did you anticipate?

Chomsky: In the financial industry, as in other industries, there are risks that are left out of the calculation. If you sell me a car, we have perhaps made a good bargain for ourselves. But there are effects of this transaction on others, which we do not take into account. There is more pollution, the price of gas goes up, there is more congestion. Those are the external costs of our transaction. In the case of financial institutions, they are huge.

SPIEGEL: But isn't it the task of a bank to take risks?

Chomsky: Yes, but if it is well managed, like Goldman Sachs, it will cover its own risks and absorb its own losses. But no financial institution can manage systemic risks. Risk is therefore underpriced, and there will be more risk taken than would be prudent for the economy. With government deregulation and the triumph of financial liberalization, the dangers of systemic risks, the possibility of a financial tsunami, sharply increased.

SPIEGEL: But is it correct to only put the blame on Wall Street? Doesn't Main Street, the American middle class, also live on borrowed money which may or may not be paid back?

Chomsky: The debt burden of private households is enormous. But I would not hold the individual responsible. This consumerism is based on the fact that we are a society dominated by business interests. There is massive propaganda for everyone to consume. Consumption is good for profits and consumption is good for the political establishment.

SPIEGEL: How does it benefit politicians when the populace drives a lot, eats a lot and goes shopping a lot?

Chomsky: Consumption distracts people. You cannot control your own population by force, but it can be distracted by consumption. The business press has been quite explicit about this goal.

more

[emphasis added]

tjfxh October 12, 2008 - 11:01pm

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