I am telling people, and I hope they listen, two things:

1. Don't read polls for the Presidency at this point.
2. Don't listen to anything the candidates have to say from this point on.

Because I remember 1988, that's why.

Many of you don't remember 1988. It was the year that wasn't. We could have put a stake in many of the worst social elements of Reagan, and dealt with the S&L bail out in a better way had Dukakis won that year. Let me paste a few paragraphs from E.J. Dionne penned in May, 1988:

LEAD: Michael S. Dukakis is capitalizing on deep public doubts about Vice President Bush and the Reagan Administration's handling of key issues and has emerged as the early favorite for the Presidential election in November, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

Mr. Dukakis, the probable Democratic nominee, ran ahead of Mr. Bush, the almost certain Republican candidate, by 49 percent to 39 percent among 1,056 registered voters.

That's right, Dukakis was up 10 points in May 1988. 10. Ten. 10. Ten. Up against a fumble mouthed loser whose best quote was gutting the very policies he was running on: "Voodoo Economics". Those were heady days.

The final result? 53-45 Bush, an 18 point reversal.

What happened?

"Great, we just went to working for the next President of the United States, to working for Snoopy the Wonder Beagle."

And then the verb Horton entered the language.

And then the death penalty - remember that? - in the debate.

So what am I watching? News like this: Bob Barr wins the Libertarian nod. Barr doesn't have to do much, just 1% nationally, to tilt the field substantially.

The dominance of the right as the ideology of the United States has produced two sizeable third party runs. The first was the division of liberalism, where liberal Republicans bolted for Jon Anderson, rather than back Carter. The second was the run of Perot. Bob Barr could become the third, and the game changer for Obama in the general election. His impact is going to be marginal, but it puts a head wind in the upper mid-west, where McCain must challenge to put Obama on the defensive. McCain's offense list includes New Jersey, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Barr hurts him in all of these states by enough. It moves New Jersey back into the wishful thinking category, it robs him of the gun votes in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. It takes the tax haters away across the boards. It brings no new voters.

It also opens the south to offense. Florida most importantly, but also Arkansas, Virginia, North Carolina. It means that McCain must now not only play defense with social conservatives, but with people who should be McCain's without effort: the guns and gumption crowd.

Barr is going to be the home of Republicans against losing wars. He stands in favor of the most important Libertarian principle there is: getting paid lots of money working defense jobs and living off of government subsidies that other people pay taxes for.

Doing a fast poll look the key changes can be summarized as it makes the holds of NJ and PA almost certain with the right VP pick for the Democrats. It makes it so that Wisconsin is an easier hold. Michigan is still problematic if McCain teams up with Romney. It makes the toss ups of New Hampshire, New Mexico, Florida, and Iowa easier for Obama. It helps out Colorado in play. It also means that Democrats can go on the offensive in other places.

These are the things that are important: fundamentals. Watch the fundamentals.

Bob Barr entering the race is a fundamental. Whether Obama can get Hillary to drop out nicely is a fundamental. What the Republican smear is, is a fundamental.

Watch these things, not yesterday's polls.

The reality here is that the Libertarian movement was always about slopping at the government trough, and cheap money, cheap land, and cheap gas. The war in Iraq, and subsequent gas tax bail out breaks the social contract by which pot smoking porn loving small government types vote for the largest expansion of the Federal Government since the second world war, religious fundamentalism, and an erosion of anything resembling a strict reading of the constitution.

Obama still has a problem, he's got to get back constituencies ready to bolt the Republican Party, but his problem just got easier, as one of the constituencies that never was going to vote for him has just leaned a bit farther out of McCain's grasp.