The Continuing Tales of Captain Carnage


Michio Kakutani's New York Times review of Norman Podhoretz's book, "World War IV: The Long Struggle Against Islamofascism," is the nicest review of mindless bellicosity you are ever going to read in English. I would suggest that the New York Times review books on racial superiority, the faking of the moon landing and the flat earth theory with similar restraint. Alchemy got a bad rap too, we should revive debate over turning base metals into gold. And after that? Well I'm sure that someone can come up with the Godwin's Law examples.

The book reviewed is a primary example of how incoherency, bombast and rage are a substitute for thinking on the right, and the fear of the right is so vast by the mush liberal view point, that even the normally claws out Michiko Kakutani provides only a summary of polls against Iraq as the argument against. This plays directly into the neo-con hands, who see themselves all as Churchillian figures railing against pacificist public opinion.

What is wrong with neo-conservatism, is not the polls, it was wrong with the country supported Bush 90% for allowing Arabs to fly planes into buildings, it was wrong when the the country allowed us to go to war without a vote in Congress, it was wrong when Congress ratified that war, it was wrong when we invaded, it is wrong now that moral cripples in Congress continue to fund a war where we have already declared defeat, withdrawn from most of Iraq, and now sit bunkered up in the Blackwater Zone of Baghdad.

Not only was it wrong, and is wrong, but it so obviously and completely incoherent as to be absurd to entertain in serious discussion. That it has dominated the intellectual framework of the last decade shows that the present leading lights of our social and intellectual world are nothing other than greed obsessed propagandists, and the whores that work for them. Anything, so long as it sells. And neo-conservatism is worth trillions of dollars. It is the largest swindle ever propagated on any people at any time for any reason not involving swastikas or hammer and sickle icons. And it will, in the end, lead to the deaths of more people than the global conflicts of the 20th century. In fact its body count is not merely the war in Afghanistan, but the "opportunity cost" of that war. Think how many years of human life 2.5 Trillion dollars would have bought. Think that Iraq has, at best, merely shifted who lives and who dies. That difference is the war dead from the neo-conservative World War Boor.

First let us be obvious: in each of the "world wars," including if you like the Cold War, but at that point I insist we include the Napoleonic Wars as a World War, and also the Seven Years War. Making this World War 6 or 7 depending on how you want to count, the conflict was between the two most advanced social and economic blocks over, not merely the dominant party, but the nature of social organization itself. In each of the 20th century megaconflicts, and let us be Churchillian and call World War I and World War II "The Second Thirty Years War" and the Cold War as part of the second global conflict which extended from the end of the conflict against right wing militarism until the collapse of Communism in the late 1980's and early 1990's, the conflict was not merely between great powers, but over the way in which the citizenry and the state would relate, the means by which economic activity would be organized, and the social nature of humankind.

In this view there is no Islamic counter-model. Moreover, the appropriation is doubly inappropriate in that in Fascism the corporate-state alliance is the religion. In Islamic extremism, it is mere garden variety theocracy that is preached. Iraq had little in common with Iran, in that Iraq was a secular military dictatorship, and Iran is a religious oligarchy. There is no model.

There is also no technical or political equivalence. In each of the global conflicts, the conflicting ideology was, by the time of the main conflict, equal to, or in the case of German and the USSR, in many cases superior to, the technical economic and political organization of the powers they combated. The Germans in particular had technical and economic advantages over their rivals. This is not the case in the current global conflict. The loose collection of Islamicist opponents that the neo-conservatives take on do not have technical superiority in a single area of activity. They do not have economic superiority, and they are not politically more organized. If this were a global conflict, there would have been, by now, the equivalents of the Warsaw Pact, the Pact of Steel, or the secret agreements that led to World War I. There is no such agreement. There is no technical equivalence, nor political equivalence.

Far from being a mirror world which drives under its own power its own objective realities of politics and production, the islamicist attractor in this conflict is disunified, quarreling and scientifically inferior.

In fact, they would not be of notice at all if it were not for two salient facts, both of them about the developed world. The first is that the developed world pours trillions of dollars into the coffers of the Islamic world, both in the form of payments for oil, and for the interest on the money they have loaned us to buy that oil, and the dividends on capital paid with the money that they have reinvested as the profits of the first two. Without the dependence on cheap oil for the economic model of the developed world, Islamism would be scraping enough poppy mass off the side of bulbs to buy ammunition for AK-47's. The second salient feature of the neo-conservative world which is at issue its its resolute failure to buy insurance and hedge against downside events. In essence, since Reagan, the right has argued that you don't buy insurance, you keep the money, and when bad things happen you use the money you have from the additional profits made in not buying insurance to deal with the mess. "The future will be richer."

Iraq then is the mess that the past said that the future would clean up with the extra money from cutting taxes. Since there was no extra money from cutting taxes, the entire bet is lost, but fortunately for Ronald Reagan, Malcolm Forbes and dozens of other people who rode to power on it, they are safely dead. They win, you lost. More importantly, your 17 year old son, cousin or neighbor is going to pay the ultimate price in this war without end. For what?

So that Norman Podhoretz and his disciples can live a very comfortable existence at your expense.

This means that this is not a conflict against a counter-order, but instead against the by-product of our own. We are likely to see oil touch 100 dollars a barrel under the conservative inflationism of Ben Bernanke, a man who will go down in the pantheon of incompetent central bankers with a chapter all to himself. This is not a conflict against a monster from the abyss but a Frankenstein's monster of our own creation.

Thus both the frame of "World War" and fascism is obvious fraud. There is no counter order, there is no totalitarian religion of the state. Since this is a war over who gets the profits from one system, it is a civil war, not a global war. The oilarchies are as dependent on our system as we are.

So the second part of the formulation "-fascism" is complete nonsense. However, the first part "Islamo-" is also complete nonsense as well. It is not that there are not Islamic extremists, and it is not that they do not want to kill people from the developed world and topple our political and economic order. However, they are merely the best financed, not the only ones.

The real conflict is one which is familiar to students of history: what to do with the dispossessed. In previous ages, the dispossessed of a system were needed for menial labor in some proximity to the elites. Serfs harvested grain in sight of the castle, the day laborers of the Victorian smoke stake era hauled away the horseshit and coal dust, and hauled in the oats and coal. Thus, when the dispossessed of that time wanted to act, they were right there, with cobblestones and horse drawn bombs to do it. Napoleon's answer, a "whiff of grapeshot" was the answer of that age.

The advantage of the petroleum economy with respect to this problem is that it was possible to put the dispossessed far, far, far away, where they could not easily reach the elites. One reason why Israel is a state different from our own, is that they must live cheek by jowl with their dispossessed. One reason for anti-immigrant hysteria in our own country is that the alien worker must work here in the US. The dispossessed are not at a comfortable distance any more, and the menial labor that they do is no longer easily dividable from our own. This is a general pattern: offshoring is the movement of work from here, to elsewhere, but instead of moving low value work, we are moving high value work. Global warming is the same problem in another form: we can no longer export the dirty pollution to China or elsewhere and have others feel the effects of it. This general principle is simple to describe: the 21st century is seeing the end of the ability to externalize disutility beyond the developed core. We can no longer export misery without consequence.

These facts are facts. The Neo-Conservative bellowing points, enforced by shouting down in ordinary conversation anyone who dares defy them, and destroying the social comity that we require to buy coffee at Starbucks, are not facts. Nor even factoids.

What this should tell all of us who are not in power, or who are not yet in power, is things will get worse before they get worse: as long as the insane, immoral, unethical and unthinking drive public debate, there will be no discussion of real solutions. It would be as if, and it is, we had to allow every inventor of a perpetual motion machine to have a best-seller that we discussed as a potential solution to the energy crisis. Right now there are proposals to put sulfuric acid into the upper atmosphere rather than deal with global warming directly. We are talking of an age that is willing to unbalance the ecology of the planet in order to keep being able to vote for defense subsidies for their home districts. We are talking of a Congress that is willing to forgive high crimes and misdemeanors, treason and malicious defrauding of the public, before doing their constitutional duty to protect and defend the constitution.

But let me not limit it to America, Europe as well is more than willing to take the profits from this era, and find wasy of defrauding their own publics. Thousands of people died in a heat wave, because Europe cannot afford to run its electrical grid correctly. Many more will have their social benefits stripped from them, or be exposed to terrorist attack, because they will not stand up to the United States, but instead partcipate in every move to keep the current order in power, though they would prefer not to send their troops to the front lines of Iraq any more.

There is no escape from this: the ultimate problem we face is not peak oil, global warming, terrorism or the aging of the developed world, but an elite in politics, economics and intellectual position that is willing to impose any cost, on the future, impose any burden, on the future, fight any war, with the future's blood and money, oppose any friend, support any foe, in order to keep their addiction to the sprawlconomy going.

Look out over your nice green lawn Suburban America, and realize that you are watering it with your children's blood. And you do not even have the courage to evict from the public dialog the people who sold you the sprinkler system on the claim that only fresh young blood will keep your lawns green.


Stirling Newberry October 26, 2007 - 12:09pm

anything goes. I think you are spot on.

A few days ago, I linked to this article in which a well known Wall Street personality and highly regarded trader and money manager spoke of his suspicions that somebody big is messing with the market. Todd Harrison finally came out with his thoughts that he has wondered and talked about over the years with his peers. I quote again:

Something has changed with regard to the DNA of the tape. I’ve felt it for a few years but naturally assumed that I - not the tape - had shifted course. The notion that there was an unnatural tone to the market - an underlying tenor, if you will - felt like forced validation or post-rationalization. But still, it persisted. Internally at first and then in select circles.

We used to huddle in hushed tones and talk about “the invisible hand” or the “plunge protection team.” We did so for fear of being called conspiracy theorists or, worse, unpatriotic. The thought that there was a hidden force seemed bizarre. I was taught that nobody was bigger than the market. Most certainly, if there were games being played, it would eventually come out.

Still, some of the my most trusted and widely respected sources confided in me that they saw it as well. They did so in confidence as Wall Street is a small place where credibility is the gateway of continuity. I, too, held my tongue for fear of retribution or consequence. Even still, to this day, there are folks that will view this column as financial sacrilege.

So what now gives this topic license for discussion? Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, who recently said, matter-of-factly, that there is indeed a Working Group on Financial Markets in force and at play. Further to that, he has openly held discussions with Wall Street firms and hedge fund managers in an attempt to gain leverage in the financial equation.

The market is the world’s largest thermometer and the single biggest proxy of our collective financial health. That fact isn’t lost on those that dictate our policies and they’ve been both strategic and stealth in how they’ve accomplished their directive. They’ve also been very effective.

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist. What we must now ask ourselves is how we would live our lives - or make our financial choices - if we knew the devil of the details. Therein lies the crux of the moral hazard debate that is sweeping the Street and gaining momentum

.

I guess I am putting this out again to add emphasis to your argument that anything goes:

There is no escape from this: the ultimate problem we face is not peak oil, global warming, terrorism or the aging of the developed world, but an elite in politics, economics and intellectual position that is willing to impose any cost, on the future, impose any burden, on the future, fight any war, with the future's blood and money, oppose any friend, support any foe, in order to keep their addiction to the sprawlconomy going.

If Harrison is correct, these guys are willing and are in some way able to paint the tape in ways never before conceived to keep all the balls in the air. And it is working magnificently...so far.

LJ October 26, 2007 - 12:27pm

Count up how much liquidity central banks dumped into the global markets. Realize that almost all of that went to bail out banks, and most of that is flowing into stocks and oil futures.

It's not a conspiracy if they put it on the front page of the Financial TImes.

Stirling Newberry October 26, 2007 - 12:33pm

is more than market juicing "liquidity" but some more active kind of "intervention" in the stock market via proxies. That is the conspiracy part of the equation. Harrison is in essence confirming that the Working Group on Financial Markets, or the so-called Plunge Protection Team, that has been whispered about for years does indeed exist and that the rumors are largely true. It is actively intervening in the markets. From his article, he dates the changes he has observed in trading patters from roughly 2001.

The implications of this, if true, are stunning. If the government is involved in "supporting" the markets through some kind of coordinated effort, it signifies the removal of moral hazard. In other words, 'just buy and the government will take care of the rest.' Once this is gamed, the markets will be loose their credibility.

I know this is mind-boggling but this is precisely what Harrison who is well-known and regarded is suggesting.

LJ October 26, 2007 - 1:38pm

That operations are carried out through market channels, so it is entirely possible that the way the bail out is happening could be used to favor certain interests over others. And with this much money flowing in, it is also possible that actors who have favored access to it are taking advantage of it.

There are been numerous attempts to fix markets in the last decade, many have not worked out well. This is a general rule, the risk of even advantaged actions on the market isn't zero.

So your friend could well be seeing something, and it may well trace back, by simple or more convoluted means, to the bail out.

Stirling Newberry October 27, 2007 - 11:11am

"Free and open markets" means one thing to the vested interests and another to non-aligned players. To vested interests "free and open" mean no government intervention, e.g., in the form of regulation and oversight. This allows their market operations to be opaque rather than transparent. On the other hand, to non-aligned players, "free and open" means enforced transparency and operations conducted in accordance with best practices, with proper oversight. When markets are transparent and ethical, and there is a mechanism for ensuring this, then it is difficult if not impossible to manipulate them, at least if people are paying attention and performing due diligence.

The current credit crunch is NOT to the fault of sleezy subprime borrowers lying on their loan applications. It is instead the fault of an opaque financial industry hawking flawed products under AAA ratings "because they could." Then, when the plan went awry, Robert Rubin and then the big hedge fund managers met with Fed chief Ben Bernanke the day before the bailout was announced, as shown by a FOIA request for his appointment logs. The ensuing drop in rates "to inject liquidity" into flagging markets caused a run out of the dollar not only because of inflation risks and increasing moral hazard. It was also a signal that players are losing faith in the US financial system and those supposedly overseeing it to play straight. This loss of trust is going to have major implications for the US in the future.

tjfxh October 27, 2007 - 12:14pm

the President and head trader of Cramer, Berkowitz, & Co., the Cramer part of the company being Jim Cramer of Mad Money on CNBC. I have followed Harrison's commentary off and on over a period of seven years. The guy is a straight shooter and well known. As Wall Street guys go, he is the best of the best in every respect.

That's why his opinions were so stunning to me. He has never been a "foamer" or anything of the like. Then he writes this column.

He is saying that not only is Bernanke doing what you say he is doing, he is doing a lot more--painting the tape by providing massive amounts of liquidity AND sponsoring some kind of coordinated action by some hedge funds using derivatives.

So, no, he is not a friend, just somebody whose opinion counts IMO hugely.

LJ October 27, 2007 - 2:08pm

Over at FireDogLake, Naomi Wolf is advocating monthly general strikes beginning November 6th. She has an entire checklist for how to do it. I believe we should be trumpeting this from the rooftops and participating every single month.

http://www.firedoglake.com/2007/10/25/taking-it-to-the-streets/

BC Nurse Prof October 26, 2007 - 12:58pm

vague wbesite, but cool

dk October 26, 2007 - 5:02pm

This is an essay I wrote on what is happening. Its conclusion may seem farfetched in the current situation, but they can only push the pendulum so far before losing control of it, and the further they've pushed it, the harder it swings back.

Revolution Happens
by John Merryman

Humanity is rapidly approaching a crossroads, where we will begin cooperating on a scale that we never have before, or we will descend into a state of warring tribes like we have never seen before. Appeals to the conscience only work on those willing to listen, while it is the less altruistic who need to pay the most attention. If there is one thing that does get people's attention, it's the money.

In 1996, Bob Dole had a campaign slogan, "We want you to keep more of your money in your pocket." The first thought to cross my mind was, 'Thank God it's not my money, or it would be worthless.' The logic of this is that the actual currency doesn't belong to the holder, only its value. The monetary system is a function of government, which in a democracy is the people. Therefore money is actually a form of public commons, similar to a public road system. Instead of transportation, it's a system of economic exchange. While you are in total possession of the section of road you're driving on, its value is due to it being connected to those everyone else is on. So is the value of the money in your pocket due to its broad interchangeability. It is not an issue of socializing wealth, but of understanding what money is to begin with. Your home, business, car, etc. are private property, but the roads linking them are not. Money is more like the public road system, than private property. It provides a broad economic connectivity, without which the economy could not function.

Money has always been a form of public utility (Render unto Caesar...), but because it evolved out of barter and for much of history was minted out of precious metals to gave it inherent value, the issue of function has been confused with the issue of possession. Now all monetary value is a matter of public trust in government accountability and this is being abused to the breaking point. It was only a generation ago that the wealth of governments were still symbolized, if not based on the gold in the treasury. For many countries, it's now how much US dollars and debt they are holding. This is not a stable situation. When the liquidity bubble does burst, faith in the concept of printed money will be shaken to its core. In order to restore faith in an invaluable economic tool, it would be useful to emphasize this public function. There is no longer a gold standard and it is the taxpayer who bears ultimate responsibility for government obligations.

Here is a little history to consider in understanding why we are where we are.

The money supply has to grow along with the economy. Inflation is caused by the supply of money growing too fast, so the law of supply and demand makes it worth less. Interest rates are raised to slow the growth of the money supply, when the economy is reaching peak potential, since the amount of money might expand faster then the economy is able to grow. During the late sixties and seventies, the money supply was allowed to grow faster then the economy in order to pay for Great Society programs, the Vietnam War and the oil crises. By the end of the seventies, inflation was spiraling out of control and Paul Volcker was given the job of taming it by raising interest rates as much as it would take to do the job. This led to a serious recession, but by 1982 inflation had peaked and he could take the pressure off.

There is a minor logical hitch to this scenario, though. By raising interest rates to the point of causing actual economic harm, he was reducing the growth of the economy and therefore the need for money. How do you reduce an oversupply, if you also reduce demand?

The Federal Reserve fine tunes the size of the money supply by buying and selling government debt. To put money into circulation, they buy government debt with fresh money and to take money out, they sell debt they are holding.

In 1980, Ronald Reagan was elected on a platform of what his primary opponent, George Bush, referred to as "Voodoo Economics," i.e. increased spending and tax cuts. The result was a serious increase in deficit spending. Now ask yourself, if the Federal Reserve sells debt to reduce the money supply, wouldn't the Treasury issuing fresh debt have the same effect? By 1982, the deficit was getting close to 200 billion and that was real money in those days. The dramatic growth in deficit spending by the US government was a significant factor in bringing inflation under control.

The borrower/producer/spender is the engine of the economy, with the saver/lender as the fuel tank. While it seems inflation is propelled by those who want to be paid more, both producers and labor, taking it out on borrowers doesn't bring supply in line with demand. Inflation is caused by the government putting too much money into circulation and the reservoir of surplus money in the economy is what is held by the saver. Earnings are taxed more then savings, so tax cuts put money into production, rather than savings. Government borrowing draws money out of savings and spends it in ways that increase and support private sector investment, through increases in services, infrastructure, security, etc. This compounds the demand for money.

At the time, economists were concerned government borrowing would crowd out the private sector, but the government issues whatever people are willing to borrow at the short term rate it sets, by buying back government debt. The problem is long term rates are set by the market and with inflation, people are more inclined to buy assets, than lend money, so the supply of money to borrow is limited and the cost , interest rates, goes up. If there is a lot of money around, but inflation isn't a concern, people lend it for whatever the market pays and long term rates go down. So the secret of our unstoppable prosperity is to have lots of money running through the system, to keep rates down and production up, but not have any start to clog the arteries and cause inflation to rise. The question is finding ever more places to invest and spend it, but the long term productivity of all this growth tends to decline. The result is fewer small business cycles in exchange for a large one.

Normally only as much money can be saved, as can be effectively invested, otherwise it causes inflation of asset prices. So where would all the money the government borrows be going, if the government didn't borrow it? The stock market? Real estate? Inflate the derivatives balloon a little more? The economy is flooded with about as much money as it can hold. If the government wasn't borrowing lots of money and recycling it through the public sector, there would be a lot less money needed all the way around and this would be inflationary. Government debt serves to support the value of the money, as well as the economy.

What will be the long term effect of this borrowing and how will it get paid down? Recently some mid-western states have sold public highways to private investors and they have been turned into toll roads. How soon until Yellowstone goes on the block? Private armies buying surplus warships? It would make sense to tax more savings from those most able to afford it, but this usually causes such people to find other ways of storing wealth. If we were to understand money as a public utility, it might better define how to manage wealth to help the larger community and environment.

In the seventies, the national economy was mostly based in the US, and inflation percolated through it, with prices and wages increasing together. Today the global economy keeps prices and wages in check, so consumer inflation is moderate, but low interest rates are creating an enormous speculative bubble among investors. Eventually it will pop and send a tidal wave of surplus money back into the regular economy, driving up prices far more then wages. Until then the gap between the rich and everyone else will continue to expand at ever increasing increasing rates, as inflated asset prices turn investment capital ever more rapidly into play money and more is needed.

In some third world countries, the politicians skim off enormous wealth, and we can see it is economically unproductive and socially destructive, yet those running our financial and industrial institutions to do the same and claim it is simply a cost of doing business. Only as much total money can be saved as can be effectively invested, otherwise it is inflationary. So these oceans of private money reduce the ability of the average person to save and invest. Endless wealth accruing to those in positions of power will eventually come to be understood as economically barbaric, and we will climb one more step up the evolutionary ladder.

Everyone needs some amount of wealth in order to both be secure and to have a commitment to the larger system. Some need more then others, like a truck needs more road then a car. Those with none have less consideration for society and are governed more by fear than respect. Those at the top need to remember that a stable society is as important to them as to everyone else. If money were thought of as a public utility, it would have definite psychological effects. People might be less inclined to define their personal ego in terms of the size of their bank account and start leaving natural wealth undisturbed, while investing more effort in their communities and environment. A healthy economy, a healthy society and a healthy environment do not have to be mutually exclusive.

Growth is bottom up, not top down, so capitalism is at its most vibrant when wealth is most evenly distributed. The problem with treating the economy like a game of Monopoly is that when one person controls everything, the game is over and you start again. In real life this stage is called revolution.

Money is a public utility, not private property. Pass it on.

http://www.exterminatingangel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=203&Itemid=118

brodix October 26, 2007 - 1:39pm

Classical mercantilism is based on the concept of a trade surplus, in which a strong currency, competitive economy results in net exports, allowing the country to accumulate wealth (gold bullion in classical terms. The strength of a currency was based on the gold reserves of that country. When the US went off gold in 1971, that model ended, and the world's economic system was then based on fiat currencies. The US objective was the, of course, to make the dollar the world's reserve currency, which it did successfully. Reagan's voodoo economics was based on the idea that the US could increase the money supply and flood the market with dollars as long as the dollars were "sanitized" by issuing corresponding amount of debt to soak it up. Bush's team is pushing this for all its worth, and it has been relatively successful until recently. However, correcting the dot.com bubble by increasing liquidity led to the housing bubble, and deregulation to the financial meltdown we are now in the midst of. This is leading to the next bailout, which is producing the next bubble as savvy people are leaving dollars for things of real value, oil, gold, commodities, etc., driving up the price. As a result the dollar is losing purchasing power big time, and it is only a matter of time until inflation can no longer be masked by cooking the figures. We seem to be entering the period of the wind-down and it ain't gonna be pretty. Lots of people are going to be hurt and be very mad.

tjfxh October 26, 2007 - 6:29pm

Mercantalism is still going strong. Japan and China are still practicing forms of it and every nation larger than a city state which industrialized did so through mercantalist policies.

Ian Welsh October 26, 2007 - 7:55pm

that net exporters like China can't allow the dollars to be converted into their own currencies to be spent at home without importing inflation. So until recently they have been buying US debt, thereby sanitizing the huge increases in money supply that would otherwise have sunk the dollar long ago. Voodoo economics depends on this, but now their appetite for dollar debt is decreasing. Watching the relentless flood of liquidity the Fed is providing to prop up the financial system in the US, creating not only moral hazard but also depreciating the dollar, they are starting to put their dollars elsewhere. The rise in commodity price is not only driven by demand stemming from growth but also from demand for a safer haven than the depreciating dollar . Euros and pounds can only rise so high before this undermines these economies, so forex alone cannot handle the matter. Asians in particular traditionally like to hold gold, they need oil and other resources so they are now going for not only these goods themselves but also the assets that produce them. Paulson is recognizing this and crying foul about the growing activity and clout of the emerging sovereign wealth funds in the global marketplace. What did the US expect -- people were going to soak up its debt forever with the dollar declining? According to John Williams at shadowstats.com inflation figured the traditional way is running around 10% per annum and M3 expanding at about 14% as of September. Did the US Treasury and Fed think that no one was going to catch them cooking the books when they redefined the measurement of inflation and discontinued reporting M3?

Of course, the US spokespeople are trying to spin this dollar depreciation as good for the US economy by increasing exports. But the US is a net importer not a net exporter and it isn't going to become a net exporter anytime soon. As a result, with purchasing power falling, more dollars are needed to purchase the same barrel of oil, ounce of gold and soon, the stuff at Walmart. IN their infinite wisdom, the US pundits want China to cut the yuan loose from the dollar, which will result in a correction that will adversely affect the US by increasing the cost of imports but not enough for manufacturing to return to the US.

The US has been in the position of being able to manipulate the global market for some time with its economic and military power, giving it the ability to print money pretty much as it wished in exchange for oil and other imports, but that time is coming to an end, likely sooner than later.

tjfxh October 26, 2007 - 9:01pm

just saying that mercantalism is alive. And it will continue to exist long after both you and I are dead. It is the the only reliable way a country can industrialize and modernize. Problem is 2.5 billion (or more) people can't do it on the backs of the US's population.

Agreed on undercounted inflation and M3 growth, been writing on those in years. And yes, decreasing dollar = even more inflation. China has been the engine keeping US inflation, if not exactly down, than lower than it should have been.

Asians don't want more dollars because the US has decided that the future doesn't happen in the US anymore. You wanted dollars for security, but also so you could buy the future. But the next revolution is looking less and less likely to happen in the US.

The late Oldman's numbers showed that if you counted inflation properly, the US's GDP started contracting in the late 90's. Sadly his work is lost, but he was the sort of guy who didn't get that sort of thing wrong.

Ian Welsh October 26, 2007 - 10:00pm

Asians don't want more dollars because the US has decided that the future doesn't happen in the US anymore. You wanted dollars for security, but also so you could buy the future. But the next revolution is looking less and less likely to happen in the US.

Yes, the US is now more and more a hollowed out economy, not only because it's shipped its low-tech manufacturing jobs off-shore but also because the present economic ideology of upward wealth transfer and the orientation of the financial system to capture future rewards in the present are eating the seeds of the future instead of planting them by advancing education, investing in basic research, and building infrastructure. Moreover, the debt accumulation resulting from voodoo economics is handicapping future generations, while other countries are busy building wealth. Looking into the future one sees problems increasing for the US rather than growing promise, especially as international competition grows in high-tech fields in the US was the leader. Add a culture of profligacy rooted in addiction to overconsumption to that, and a picture of the brewing storm becomes clear.

tjfxh October 27, 2007 - 9:39am

silver, not gold, was the primary monetary metal. One of the constant problems of the mercantile, and post-mercantile pre-gold periods was how to fix the relationship between gold and silver. It was generally done by law, and these laws ran into the problem that gold and silver are not at a constant ratio of scarcity. The gold standard of the classical era of globalism (1870-1913) was, in no small part, to end this particular problem. It didn't completely end it, but it did change the means of the debate.

Stirling Newberry October 27, 2007 - 11:15am

Some see silver now undervalued at around $14 and gold approaching $780 and steadily rising. Since the end of Bretton Woods in 1971 the Dow/gold ratio has been about 12.5:1. That means that now either the Dow is high or gold is low by historical standards.

tjfxh October 27, 2007 - 1:38pm

there will be the market choice between doing nothing and doing something political. There is, remember, a market of markets.

Stirling Newberry October 26, 2007 - 1:40pm

is that outrage is building and that most politicians of both parties are behind the curve on this, with a few notable exceptions.

tjfxh October 27, 2007 - 1:41pm

* By Nathan Hansen
* Columnist

NDSU

David Horowitz is campaigning for college republicans around the nation to host an event he calls “Islamo-Fascist Awareness Week.” He claims that we are forgetting the message and impact of 9/11 and that this week will give college students a better understanding of terrorism and what is at stake in the 21st century.

Actually, what he proposes sounds more like racism once you start to investigate. It seems David just couldn’t stand the fact that Americans aren’t terrified of the vague, exaggerated threat of Islam anymore and are actually starting to realize just what freedoms we have given up over the last six years.

David here would rather we focused on the evil Muslim than worry about children’s health-care or the fact that AT&T rolled over and illegally gave Bush all your phone records for the last six years.

Most awareness weeks focus on the plight of something or someone. Domestic Violence awareness week focuses on the plight of the men and women that are affected by spousal/partner abuse. Breast cancer awareness focuses on educating people on those who have suffered from breast cancer and helps people diagnose and get treatment if they get cancer someday. All of these awareness weeks focus on helping those who have suffered.

IFAW instead focuses on Muslims and the evils of Islam and tries to frighten people about the so-called “truths of Islam.” One of the points of IFAW is educating students about the “lie of peaceful Islam.” According to the briefing pamphlet, college republican groups are to debunk the myth and lie that Islam is peaceful by quoting choice excerpts of the Koran.

This of course is irrefutable proof of the evil of Islam, since if you quoted the Bible with choice excerpts you could also show how Christianity is not a religion of peace and worship of Jesus Christ. This is just a shallow and poorly hidden attempt to paint every Muslim as a terrorist and make America afraid again.

IFAW also has a list of selected documentaries that David Horowitz believes are educationally valid and factually correct. Unfortunately the networks that were going to run the documentaries pulled all of them because they were so extreme and error-ridden that if they had ran the program the network would have lost all journalistic credibility.

Instead, Horowitz wants colleges to air them and get by that whole fact versus opinion thing. “It’s always easier to make your point when you don’t have to check whether or not what you are saying is actually true,” must be a Republican motto.

Finally, IFAW adds more fuel to the fire by throwing down the gauntlet to Muslim Student Organizations. The information pamphlet on the website gives an open invitation to all Muslim Student Associations to prove that they are truly for peace with non-Muslims by condemning Islam and Islam terrorists for the violent criminals they are.

I think its just sick and disgusting that a student of Islamic faith comes to the United States for a college education and then has to somehow prove that he is not a terrorist by condemning his home country. Maybe we should make all Catholics take an oath testifying to the fact that they will not listen to the teachings of the Vatican because the Vatican is not the government of America.

Thankfully, NDSU is fair and open enough to not be celebrating this weeklong satire of open debate and awareness. The sad thing is that there are more than 200 colleges in the country that are not.

Nathan is a junior studying mathematics.

quiet Bill October 27, 2007 - 1:05am
quiet Bill October 27, 2007 - 1:06am

"Kick David Horowitz in the ass week"

adrena October 27, 2007 - 1:19am

He goads his audience:

I will give credit to the Muslim Student Association and the other groups who were there in opposition, they maintained more decorum than Mr. Horowitz. By the end he was saying “Well I guess you just aren’t able to read” and “I don’t know what to do if you can’t add two and two and get four”

(that's from a rightie in the audience at Emory).

Then when he gets a hostile reaction, he runs around whining that the dirty liberals with their death grip on colleges and universities are persecuting him. Picks up a round of funding and he's off to do it again.

Laughter would be much more effective (and not only for Horowitz - for all of them).

Gordon October 27, 2007 - 12:11pm

author of
WORLD WAR IV: The Long Struggle Against Islamofascism

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Podhoretz

quiet Bill October 27, 2007 - 1:14am

from the Asia Times

....
So, the Fed and the Treasury have all decided that they are going to set up a huge special fund, with untold billions of pretend dollars, drawing in more investors to which the banks will sell short-term paper to finance the bailout, so that the banks can trade derivatives around amongst themselves, thus establishing their "market price"! Hahaha!

Suddenly, I realize that I may be too hasty in dismissing this scheme! This remarkable idea has given me a terrific business idea! You are going to love this! You and I will go into business, see, and each of us will (believe it or not) sell dog turds back and forth to each other, priced at the same per-ounce price as gold! Hour after hour, we will busily sell them back and forth between us, you buying mine and me buying yours, thus proving that there really IS a market for dog turds, and they are provably worth their weight in gold! We, like these banks, will both make a fortune! Whee! Hahahaha!

....

LJ October 27, 2007 - 9:14am

You buy my horse for a hundred grand at auction and I buy yours for a hundred grand. Then we advertise our stallions as producers of foals worth a hundred thousand dollars until an unknowing sucker comes along.

Actually works.

I did inhale.

Don October 27, 2007 - 11:11am

"I sell you the 9 billion dollar puppy and you buy it back from me and we both have made 9 billion dollars."

Another scheme that is illegal in the US is "wash sales" - or the simultanoeus buying and selling of large blocs of a security or equity.

Stirling Newberry October 27, 2007 - 11:18am

Isn't this what the derivatives market has become, since no one is forced to take losses, just roll them over and it keeps enormous amounts of currency in circulation?

The gold bugs have been saying for years that various countries are selling off their gold reserves to keep the prices down. Makes sense, when you consider they have to mint those coins out of something.

One thing Roosevelt had to work with was a solid currency, but now every possible resource is leveraged to the hilt.

What does happen, after the fall? I know my proposal that we treat money as a form of public utility seems ridiculous in the current context, but this isn't going to last much longer and the alternative seems to be to descend into hell. We already have tax based currency, why not make it taxpayer owned? The connection between rights and responsibilities needs to be solid, for society to be stable.

brodix October 28, 2007 - 1:51pm

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