Memo to Democrats: Don't Wait Until the War is Truly Lost


One reason many Democrats hesitate to put the pedal to the metal on Iraq is the belief that it will be lost of its own accord. If there is a catastrophic meltdown, then withdrawal will simply sweep along, and they can march to the front of the parade. The fear is that there will be a "stabbed in the back" myth if we leave one moment before the insurgency tosses the last bloody body out a Baghdad door.

It's poor strategy, because no matter what the outcome, the militarists will blame the Democrats for the loss, and since there will have, repeat have, to be a shearing of the vast war time budget with all of its gravy, the Democrats will be blamed for that too. In short, no matter what happens, the hard right will spin a myth of the Democratic Party as hating the military.

Instead, waiting too long will destroy the Democratic Party's chances of really taking power with public mandate, because they will be seen as slightly less hard right sellouts who don't care about the American people. Iraq is ripping through a generation of young men, their lives, their families and their loved ones. Every day it goes on, shreds the best and the brightest of their cohort. "What happened to all of those brilliant young lieutenants from the last war who were supposed to be generals now?" "They all died waving a revolver around Flanders in the gas attacks."

Non-binding resolutions, top down strategies, the clear and blatant disregard for the work that people not in the Beltway tank do - these are all hallmarks of a Democratic leadership that thinks that the way to stop Bush is to stack the box with defenders and stop him from plodding along. Bush doesn't plod. He takes shots downfield, and then plays defense to run out the clock. Right now, he is running out the clock, and taking shots down field by agitating against Iran and Islamic terrorists - who do not have atomic weapons, while talking to and bribing North Korea - which does have atomic weapons, however unreliable they may be.

The first key to Bush is to take away his long bomb ability. Look at the approval graph. Bush almost never marches up, but instead shoots up. Take this away from him and he has much more difficulty end running a Democratic Congress, because his sole sustained upward move was based on being a free spender with a friendly Congress. Absent bombing and bribing, there is no upside to Bush or his policies.

This is why the realization must sink in to the Democratic Party that they have to either start impeachment, or they have to erase Bush's legacy with scorched earth tactics. First slash out NCLB and replace it, then rewrite Medicare Part D in its entirety, then annihilate the large pork projects like the throw a rock at Mars project, then the large defense procurements. Replace the spending that actually reaches the ground with something else, so that ordinary people don't suffer for Bush's decision not to come to the table, but make sure that there is no corporate profit in it.

Failure to do this will de energize the base in 2008 -- a base that the Democratic Party will need to counter -- a right wing that will not be at the pit of depression, and which will be facing the possibility of a Democratic President filling slots on the court and in general not following the theocratic social line, and a wealthy elite faced with having to pay back all that money the government borrowed.

The news from Baghdad is fairly clear. As with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and as predicted on this blog, the first stage was the loss of roads, the next stage was forcing the US to pull back to hard points and rely on choppers. The last phase is to shatter the control of these hard points by attack choppers, which now must act in close defense. This puts the occupation as rounding its last turn. Still a long way to go if we allow it to slowly collapse, but with a shattering end that will resemble the Iranian embassy crisis - an over run of some American civilian position, with the resulting hostage crisis.

That is where this is going, unless it is stopped. The crisis of confidence that will come from waiting for humiliation, as opposed to defeat, in Iraq will be of Vietnam proportions.


Stirling Newberry February 10, 2007 - 1:59am

and remember I'm predicting Iran by August!

Lasthorseman February 10, 2007 - 1:29pm

I'm predicting by March.

Nominay February 10, 2007 - 1:36pm

came from a prophesy type site but I see no reason to discount March.

Lasthorseman February 10, 2007 - 6:54pm

I wouldn't discount the risks of "stab-in-the-back" nor the moth-to-the-flame tendencies on the left of the Democratic Party, with regard to such narratives.

The center of the Democratic Party and the leadership in Washington share the common charactertistic that they do not know that they are tasked with overthrowing a regime. Democratic activists, including a newly awakened Left, are aware. But, neither those accustomed to leadership in Washington, nor the low-political-awareness middle-of-the-road voter, critical to winning general elections, is aware of the necessity.

The Democrats do need to fear the "stab-in-the-back" narrative, and they had better be building a more believable narrative of their own. The far Right will blame the Democrats, no matter what -- about that you are correct. But, the politics of the next generation will turn on what narrative is believed more generally.

I look at Bush's polls, and I see the spikes, of which SN speaks. I also see that Bush has declined steadily and the spikes are ever smaller; Bush is now hovering just above 30%. Below 30% is hanging territory, the area where Bush becomes Herbert Hoover or Richard Nixon. The number of Americans actually in Iraq is proportionately tiny, and their participation seriously skews both the narratives they will accept and their emotional committment to those narratives. The political scorching the country needs is the face of George "Herbert Hoover" Bush, as the fool, who created a catastrophe in the Middle East, by incompetence and corruption.

The critical work of the Congress in the next 6 months is to build the narrative, which places the responsibility for the course of the Iraq War on its conduct. The narrative, favored by the self-destructive left, of a war that was doomed from the outset, is welcomed by the Right, which wishes to gloss over the corruption, malfeasance and incompetence. I am no fan of Hillary's (or Kerry's) conspicuous calculation, but Hillary is right to remind Democratic Primary voters that the mistakes in Iraq belong to Bush. Squabbling over which Democrats have uttered mea culpas on their support for the Iraq War at the outset does not build a political majority. Focusing attention on Bush's conduct of the war, and how the conduct of the war has contributed to the hopelessness of the current situation -- there Bush's responsibility is unambiguous and unshared.

With the foundation afforded by a narrative of Iraq failure, which clearly fixed blame on the incompetence and corruption of Republicans, the Democrats might be able to sell the idea that it is too late in Iraq, to recover. And, with that foundation, the Democrats will be able to sell a narrative, in which the authors of the war are the authors of the consequences of its failure.

In the meantime, I believe you are right about scorched earth tactics. More directly to the point, the Democrats should give Bush the appropriations for Iraq he asks for, but with taxes attached to pay for them -- taxes on Exxon Mobil and Richard Mellon Scaife.

brucew07 February 10, 2007 - 4:44pm

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