State of the economy


Baltic Dry probably made a new high, 2176, even if there are more free ships.

TED-spread in panic level, 109.67 (is this only because of GM?). S&P 500 is 683.80, which is VERY CHEAP. RTS is 576.36, probably expecting rise in oil price, it was cheap when it was under 500. VIX is about 50.

GE scam is now over and it became a text book case. Very funny and educational.

The stock market does react technically which is a good sign. S&P 500 volume doesn't signal a bottom, I would expect over 10 billion there.

My buy side analyst commented that business cycle has turned up but the stock market has not confirmed it. To be more precise, the Chinese recession is manufacturing (excluding exports) is over now. It was almost over in February. End of manufacturing recession in the USA is not yet visible. The rest of the world is between these. For example UK manufacturing has turned up, but Switzerland points down. Eurozone has turned up. Norway and Denmark point downward when Sweden has turned to point up etc.

Basic metals and oil seem to have found their bottom.


Singular March 6, 2009 - 12:11pm
( categories: Miscellany )

There was massive news hysteria when the liquidity was being expanded but now when it is being dried, there are only little news about it. Some entertainers still speak how the USA will become Zimbabwe :)


--Sell Alaska to China!

Singular March 6, 2009 - 12:22pm

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