A Path Forward With Iran


Tensions are on the rise with Iran, the US and Israel so I want to go back and highlight this post on Iran and the neocons and the debate on wat to do with Iran:

Bernard Finel, as quoted by the New Atlanticist Policy blog writes:

[T]he ship has sailed on this. It sailed in 1979, and has been sailing in the same direction for 30 years. If you are relying on convincing the public and decision-makers that Iran is not a threat, you are going to lose the debate. If you are arguing, in effect, that we should just ignore them and rely on deterrence, that is also going to lose the debate.

The reason the neocons won the debate on Iraq was precisely because they were proposing a solution to a widely recognized problem. It may have been the wrong solution, and the problem was not as severe as they claimed. But the reality is that in policy debates, those able to credibly argue for a “winning” strategy to a problem will always have the upper hand over those proposing muddling through or living with risk.

My reply to this is very easy: show me, don’t tell me. That is the only way a leader can get people to muddle through and live with risk: show people that it can be done and this is what has been missing in our Iran policy since 1979. Obviously, for the first several years after the revolution engagement was impossible for both countries domestically. And yes, the neocons have won the rhetorical debate because they have proposed a solution, if that’s what you want to call another war. It’s the hoary old case of defining yourself by standing for something, as opposed to standing against something, which never wins. So, what’s the solution? Leadership. You step up, take a risk and negotiate with the Iranians. Begin by negotiating on interests you have in common—and the US and Iran have interests in common. Don't start the negotiations by arguing what your are going to negotiate. That's the quickest way to failure. Make it very clear to your interlocutor that all issues are on the table. Don't get bogged down in stupid stuff like who is going to sit where. Build confidence. Give the little points away. Show flexibility.

After you’ve built some confidence tackle the harder issues. If necessary take a page from Chou En-lai’s brilliant negotiating strategy with Henry Kissinger: state your differences boldly and clearly in the negotiating document and let the momentum of the relationship moves those issues forward, just as the US and China did in the seventies.

Look, this stuff isn’t rocket science. It's been done before. And be patient. Negotiations take time. Don't sit down once and then leave, as it's been reported the Obama Administration did in the past with Iran. One thing I can guarantee about all this: if we don’t try we’re destined to fail. What’s worse, innocent lives will be lost. Of course, American policy-makers have made a high art of kicking the can down the road and pretending they're making the ‘tough decisions,' as if drifting to war were a hard choice. That's the choice of the insecure, thin-skinned and weak-willed.


Sean Paul Kelley January 10, 2012 - 10:00am
( categories: Iran | USA: Foreign Relations )

the sources from Zerohedge are very thinly sourced, if at all and I question the doubling of prices in a week. I've emailed a friend in Iran directly about this and will update when he responds.

Bad decisions make good stories.

Sean Paul Kelley January 10, 2012 - 7:07pm

...neighbourhood of 30-40% annualized, not helped along by the rial taking a bath.

Iran rial slides, 'dollar' text messages appear blocked

Tehran | January 10

Reuters - Iran's currency has slid 20 percent against the dollar in the last week despite central bank intervention, and Iranians concerned about the economy said on Tuesday attempts to send text messages using the word "dollar" appeared to be blocked.

The central bank reportedly pumped $200 million dollars into the market last Wednesday after new and much tougher U.S. sanctions prompted nervous Iranians to change rials into hard currency, accelerating a rise in the price of dollars on the open market.

Saying it would act to stabilise the currency, the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) imposed a rate of 14,000 rials to the dollar - up from record lows of around 18,000 rials - but many exchange offices would not sell at that price.

By Tuesday the exchange rate had risen again to around 17,000 rials, according to exchange bureaus, 50 percent more than the CBI's "reference rate" of 11,240 rials.

The currency slide is a huge risk for consumer prices in a country where the official inflation rate - considered an underestimate by many economists - is already around 20 percent and rising.

more

[Comment: It's worth noting that this may be hitting the Iranian power structure harder than we perceive - in conjunction with the run-up to the elections (note that the Guardians Council just played their now familiar gambit of disqualifying some 50 Majlis members from running in the upcoming elections), the response may be discontinuous and poorly calibrated. ~ JPD]

"In combat one should be very suspicious of painless moral choices. When you are confronted with a seemingly painless moral choice, the odds are that you haven't looked deeply enough." ~ Karl Marlantes

JustPlainDave January 10, 2012 - 7:49pm

...it is necessary to have parties who both want to negotiate and can negotiate for their side. It is entirely unclear that either side even begins to approach this in even the most rudimentary fashion.

"Assholes." ~ not-John Limbert (my personal hero, BTW)

JustPlainDave January 10, 2012 - 8:01pm

no doubt true. From what I've gathered there is a quite a domestic power struggle going on right now and it's not clear if we would have a negotiating partner.

Bad decisions make good stories.

Sean Paul Kelley January 10, 2012 - 9:48pm

are always so consistent in agreements with foreign countries...right?

Synoia January 10, 2012 - 10:47pm

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