I suspect that number is high. This estimate of 26,500 barrels a day seems reasonable. That number is staggering when you consider the flow continues.

I did inhale.

I've no idea where these estimates in the 10s of millions of barrels are coming from - every one I've seen puts the reserve in the billions of barrels - at least 4 billion.

When the existing riser erodes away - and it will very quickly - the rate of escape will multiply quickly, then even more as the downhole casing gives way and the hole is rendered wide open. The theoretical limit on the 7" rathole which penetrated the reservoir will quickly become meaningless as the hole erodes.

3 months to drill a pressure relief well will simply be too late - not to mention that they never got the necessary (geomag) logging tools down the original hole to know exactly how to intersect it. It's a pure shot in the dark. Nevertheless, in three months the borehole will be much, much wider, and even running wide open theres enough product down there to flow for years at that rate.

But the ELE in all of this may be the gas. A sudden escape of the gas reserves there will give new meaning to Texas barbeque.

has made us all feel better by explaining that, whatever the size of the gusher, it is a very small leak in a very big ocean. Of course, the people who have data which might help you make a sound estimate aren't sharing.

bbc

Obama: 'No more cosy relationship'

US President Barack Obama has vowed to end the "cosy relationship" between oil companies and US regulators in the light of the Gulf of Mexico disaster.

Promising "relentless" efforts to stop the oil leak, he rebuked oil industry executives for seeking to pass on blame for the disaster.

He condemned "the ridiculous spectacle" of oil executives "falling over each other to point the finger of blame".

Mr Obama was speaking after meeting his cabinet at the White House.

A lack of vigilant oversight contributed to the oil rig explosion, he said in the Rose Garden.

Federal regulators had, he said, sometimes approved drilling plans based on the oil companies' promises to use safe practices.

The rule from now on, the president said, would be "trust but verify".

Eleven people died when an explosion destroyed the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig on 20 April.

Owned and operated by Transocean, the rig had been working on behalf of BP.

Thousands of barrels of oil have been gushing daily into the sea from the broken well pipe since then, threatening the delicate ecosystem of the US Gulf coast.

BP is using underwater robots in its latest attempt to stop the leak, which involves jamming a tube into the pipe to divert oil to a tanker on the surface.

'The system failed'

Mr Obama said he shared the anger felt by Gulf Coast residents over the oil spill.

"The potential devastation to the Gulf Coast, its economy and its people require us to continue our relentless efforts to stop the leak and contain the damage," he told reporters.

"I know BP has committed to pay for the response effort and we will hold them to their obligation," he said.

"I have to say, though, I did not appreciate what I considered to be a ridiculous spectacle during the congressional hearings into this matter: executives of BP and Transocean and Halliburton falling over each other to point the finger of blame at somebody else.

"The American people cannot have been impressed with that display and I certainly wasn't.

"I understand that there are legal and financial issues involved and a full investigation will tell us exactly what happened but it is pretty clear that the system failed and it failed badly.

"For that, there's enough responsibility to go round and all parties should be willing to accept it. That includes, by the way, the federal government."

Below, is an article from today's Daily Mail (UK), including a comment by a Greenpeace scientist on the ineffectiveness of clean-ups in the context of oil gushers and tanker accidents.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1278279/Gulf-Mexico-oil-spill-BP-boss-Tony-Hayward-tries-downplay-disaster.html

I suspected there could be an unusually ugly outcome to this, early on in the piece; and the auguries don't seem strikingly propitious at the moment, do they.

How scandalous that Exxon has managed to drag out its appeals and have its fines reduced. Governments are doubtless complicit in the kid-glove treatment of the large coporations by the appeal courts, when large fines are payable.

this is fouling the air here in New Orleans at times. to think this could get worse as some say gives me the foreboding of what will happen to the Gulf. i never ever knew the Gulf was blue until i took a cruise past the Mississippi River delta. and i've lived here all my life.

that no one will be held responsible or even attempt to ameliorate this toxic waste dump if the worst case scenario arises, is the probable result of politics/money today. that our Gulf will be written off due to various factors, is the end result.

Drill baby drill. Gosh, to think i am living in the end times of the environment as a result of the capitalist system. i definitely will consider moving far away from the most beautiful meeting of land and water, delta in America. such wonderful soil animals and aquatic creatures that i grew up with.

and no one will be held accountable or even begin to start to the cleanup, if that is possible. that is my one thought. NO ONE will be held accountable due to the immense money of the Corporations. Soylent Green it is.

BBC, May 15

BP's chief executive has said the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster should not mean the end of deep-water exploration.

But Tony Hayward told the BBC's Today programme that significant changes to the oil industry should arise from what he called a "transforming event".

Thousands of barrels of oil a day have been gushing from a seabed well since a drilling rig exploded on 20 April.

i think obama is way behind the power curve on this one. this is a truely major world disaster. BP is lying thru their teeth, clearly. but you cannot hide the reality of it for ever. the oil IS going to destroy the gulf coast, and probably more. when people see that and look back, they are going to absolutely livid...obama isnt very good at getting out in front of things, and this time its going to do him extraordinary damage...

someone tell hayward to pull that needle out his arm...

too many people are paying with their livelihoods for such epic, untrammeled greed, for humans to get away with such blatantly insane self-indulgence, with apparently zero awareness of the consequences.

yup to yogi, obama needs to ride the populist backlash all the way, not dither and speechify.

the cancer of fossil fuels needs to be starved out of the global bloodstream, stat.