The Recession Is Over, But The Depression Continues


Apropos Ian's comments, here, we have this from David Rosenberg:

There are classic signs indeed that the recession in the U.S. ended last summer — output, sales, etc. But the depression is ongoing and the reason we say that is because real personal income, excluding handouts from the government, has barely budged. In fact, real organic personal income is nearly $500 billion lower now than it was at the peak 16 months ago and this has never occurred before coming out of any technical recession. It is a depression, as the chart below attests — that is the trendline for real household incomes, until the government comes in to top them off with handouts, subsidies and extended jobless benefits . . .

Real consumer spending is up $200 billion over the past 16 months and everyone believes we have a sustainable recovery even though organic income is down almost $500 billion. Think about that for a second because once the stimulus wears off, and with a 10% deficit-to-GDP ratio and concerns surfacing everywhere about sovereign credit risks, there is little out there to support future growth in consumption.

Yep, just think about that for a moment. Let it sink in.


Sean Paul Kelley May 14, 2010 - 1:29pm

"Organic Growth" WTF!

steelhead May 14, 2010 - 1:52pm

is relevant. It's the non government side growth, and speaks to the question of whether the economy is growing without 'stimulus.'

I think the answer had been no since about January of this year. However, I have not seen it applied to personal income, excluding 'government handhouts' (and I take exception to calling it government handouts). I have to think about that data, as it would include social security, government pension and I believe even military pay.

Those are legitimate transfers of dollars to folks and should not be adjusted out of the data. So I am not convinced that provides a real metric relative to the economy. Real household income has risen as has consumer spending. In fact, social security and pensions have provided a tremendous stabilizer on household income in this downturn. Wages and spending go generally hand in hand, and I would be hard pressed to believe that one can decline while the other rises, and the transfer payments associated with unemployment is significant but it is not driving the spending train at this point by any stretch. In fact its relative low cost on a national basis.

First quarter growth has been stronger than expected and tied to manufacture which is leading this recovery. Hiring is accelerating and it will become undeniable over the next several months. I am even now seeing shortages of supply in the housing markets in key areas of the country and that will necessitate a continued rise in new construction. I am seeing commercial building activity again and a decline in discount rates. I would also add that government interest expense obligations as a percentage of GDP are at all time lows (isn't that contra intuitive). Government interest cost on debt as a percentage of GDP is now at 1.5%, the lowest in probably 40 years. We have so much room on the ability to apply stimulus that there is little need to slow down, so continued efforts to support the unemployed can continue for the foreseeable future.

Risk is going out of this side of the Atlantic for sure. Europe has a very different structure and much higher risks. Their debt load is so much higher than in the US, again such a surprise. Plus, the dollar is once again emerging as the sole reserve currency. And only a month after everyone declared its demise in favor of the Euro!!

Profits are exploding, manufacture is exploding, hours worked is going up and hiring is accelerating. I see 3.5% growth in GDP for all of 2010, 13000 on the Dow by year end, no inflation, and anywhere from 1.5 to 2.0 million jobs created (equal the pace of the 1990s. Housing prices will be rising again, and construction will rise sharply. I bet it reaches 1.25 million houses built in 2011, which is almost three times higher than 2009. It will probably have to reach to almost 2 million by 2012, there won't be enough houses if they don't. Consider that there are still 1.65 million new households forming every year. Huge shortages of housing in the southeast right now.

Interest rates will stay low, and the deficit can be reduced by anywhere from 15% to 20% in 2011 from the expiration of the Bush tax regime alone. How much of this will be visible in November of this year prior to elections, probably quite a bit. Hiring ticks up in the summer. We could have a month with 500k new jobs.

I'll go out on a limb and say unemployment to 7% by the end of 2011, which is not too far considering it is already at that in the Midwest excluding Michigan.

I like the implicit comparison of the US to Greece. Sovereign credit risk. Consider that Greece's economy is still declining, that it's interest costs are above 6% of the economies GDP. That they cannot make payments, and their ready to default TODAY. Sovereign Credit risk is the reason the dollar is coming back so strong, we don't have any! Our interest costs are at their lowest in 40 years. The US economy is poised to grow $585 billion in 2010 of which Federal tax load is 22%, basically $130 billion in new revenues that can be leveraged to $5 trillion at present Treasury rates. We will not be anywhere near that level. I would be surprised if the deficit went above $800 billion in 2011.

Scotjen61 May 14, 2010 - 3:45pm

"Real household income has risen as has consumer spending."

Bullshit! I don't know where you got this notion, but NO ONE I've spoken with would back this up. Huge swaths of the still employed got absolutely no COLA increase this year(self included), and many in the CE industry have taken pay cuts or quit the business. Discretionary income, if it exists, is not being spent.

_____________________________________________________
I got two wooden nickels and a rabbit's foot...
Matt King

OldLakeRat May 14, 2010 - 4:31pm

I don't know where you are getting your numbers, but anecdotally, I can assure you that the majority of people I come in contact with are seeing their incomes stagnate or decline. I have a couple of friends making money right now, but they are the exception. Maybe the problem is that one of them is making a lot of money and that is skewing things. Kind of the whole problem we have been experiencing for the last 30 years.

Disconcerted May 14, 2010 - 5:40pm

You are definitely making money...

creativelcro May 14, 2010 - 6:38pm

You make many assertions without providing links to the data:

Profits are exploding, manufacture is exploding, hours worked is going up and hiring is accelerating

Show us or STFU.

Synoia May 14, 2010 - 7:56pm

The wilshire profit indexes, the government manufacture indexes, labor department issues hours worked weekly. The data is everywhere.

THIS is from the article referenced by SPK:
The just-released U.S. industrial production data was strong, rising 0.8% MoM in April beating analysts’ expectations of a 0.6% increase. On a year-over-year basis, production is running at 5.2%, the strongest pace since mid-1997. Manufacturing is a bright spot with production jumping 1% MoM, matching the gain in March and is also up 6% YoY.
Steel production is up 74% year-on-year.
Lumber production has risen 29%.
Automotive by 67%.
Truck tonnage has risen 7.5% and container traffic out of Long Beach has surged 19%.
Railway carloadings are up 14% over the past year. Some of this is related to global growth, some it to the lagged impact of U.S. dollar depreciation, and some of it related to the improved productivity position of U.S. manufacturers, which indeed seem to be enjoying somewhat of a renaissance (something we wrote about three years and should be on archive back at the old shop).
The latest foreign trade data showed that U.S. exports of goods and services have exploded 20% YoY, as of March.
 

AND language cause I have been trying to play nice:)

Scotjen61 May 14, 2010 - 9:54pm

This may reflect a change from underemployed to more employed, however there is little corresponding rise in employment.

The structural problems continue. Health Insurance costs up, some by 40%, gas at $3.00/gallon, real wages not rising much in 30 years, pollution up, huge expenses from an over large MIC and two stupid wars, money better invested on infrastructure.

US Life expectancy and infant mortality the worst in the the first world.

Shall we continue? And you deft change from subject from the US economy the the world economy above, built to a large extent by outsourcing jobs from the US.

All is well, no problems in the US, nothing to see.

Right?

Synoia May 15, 2010 - 10:50am

The outsourcing as you call it by sharing our largesse with the rest of the world is one of the great philanthropic moments in history. Few cultures in the world have such care.

Scotjen61 May 15, 2010 - 3:59pm

Our philanthropy is just like the philanthropy of any empire. The imperial elite milk the rest, whether at home or abroad. We outsourced jobs, but specifically excluded labor or environmental protections. In fact, when China added labor protections, U.S. firms lobbied very hard against the workers. U.S. firms have been extraordinarily aggressive at seeking permanent monopolies over production through abusive laws enforcing so-called intellectual property laws. For example, the effect of forcing India to accept GM seeds has been very cruel.

There has been significant improvement in many people's economic status over the past fifty years, but several things that apologists for the neoliberal global control generally leave out need to be remembered. First, the horrendous plight of many peoples was caused by 19th c. imperialism. Britain was no meaner to Ireland than it was to India, or to its African colonies, or to its concessions in China, and we know what happened in Ireland in the 19th c. In fact, Britain was nicer to Ireland. The improvements in living standards is from this very precarious start. Second, economic growth in the third world slowed with the imposition of neoliberal-style globalism. Third, while the statistics of overall improvement are very good, they hide the wide disparity in improvement for different areas. Specifically, it's China's growth, with so many people that makes the statistics on improvement so good.

However, lest I seem too opposed to philanthropy, I would applaud outsourcing corporate CEO jobs. That would really improve the rest of the world's statistics, and remove the suspicion that hiring people to work long days in unsafe, polluting plants for a fraction of what the previous workers were making has anything to do with greed.

nihil obstet May 15, 2010 - 6:59pm

equivalency is difficult. Applying today's standards to 100 or 200 years ago becomes problematical.

What I will say is that Britain has had a unique feature in their history that is not often seen. They stood down and relinquished power in a number of situations. They stood down in India, stood down in Hong Kong. And they stood down nonviolently. It is a fascinating contrast. Britain stood down with the US colonies as well, and then became the rebel colonies protectorate for 100 years. Became a key trading partner, it is a highly unthinkable - forward thinking - mental framing.

All the ills are there, all the bad behavior, but in the last fifty years I have seen a fascinating shift. With the shift has come a rising quality of life that is global. Not perfect, but rising. To compare the 1960 high death rate high birth rate global reality, with today's low death rate low birth rate reality, and the rising opportunities for learning the world over, the rising prospects of third world countries. It is a thing to behold, a far larger transition I think than any time I can think of.

It is not just China either. If it were I would concur with the assessment that it is skewed data. But that is not true. It includes Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, India, the vast majority of Pakistan, Brazil, Chile, Mexico. The East European countries are recovering so well that their migrant labor is actually creating labor problems in west European countries. There are nascent signs in Africa, though there are pockets that are very bad. It is NOT just China.

Scotjen61 May 17, 2010 - 2:56pm

Demand is king! Demands drives all before it. Demand calls forth investment, not the other, perverted way around in the Republicans' world where investors bet big sums on some cockamamy concept with no idea whatsoever whether a demand exists for the product. Demand is the wind beneath the economy's wings and take away that lift or reduce it and suffer a stall and descent. Further, demand is not driven by the oligarchs' expenditures, but by the millions of individually small purchases made by ordinary citizens. It is past time to boost the taxes on the uber-wealthy so that the nation can help maintain overall economic demand while keeping the deficit in check. The oligarchs and plutocrats have lived in a fool's paradise for the last thirty years and it is time that they learned the reality of that fact.

VizierVic May 14, 2010 - 4:42pm

Life expectancy is the highest it has ever been. Infant mortality is the lowest it has ever been. Educational opportunity and literacy rates are at all time highs. Middle class around the world is emerging at all time high. Largest decline in poverty in the last generation. The advances are breathtaking and how can they be missed.

Scotjen61 May 14, 2010 - 9:59pm

How strange is that? How many more years of no net job growth can we take. At the end of the Bush-Cheney occupation, there had been no net job growth in the private sector and the apparatus that the private sector supports, government spending, had increased somewhat (not much) as a result of the war on a word. Net new jobs can come from only two sources, in that reality: retirements and deaths.

Michael Collins May 14, 2010 - 7:20pm

You can make all these claims you want, and the overseer/investor class is certainly doing well, but nearly everyone I know is worse off than before all this shit hit the fan beginning in 2007 -- arguably, it began in 2000 what with the tech crash and its jobless recovery.

I lost my job last year and after six months found another one that paid $13K less per year. My next-door neighbor lost her job in freakin' December 2008 and just got another job last month, with a 40% pay cut. Nobody who lost their jobs as a result of the depression is making more now. Instead all this happy talk is simply encouraging the acquisition of more debt. The malls are full, the parking lot at Costco is packed, and yeah, people are spending again. This doesn't imply that their income has increased; never has, never will. Sure a lot of people have damaged credit, but a lot don't and they're using it. Me, I'm still paying off the AmEx every month in full, shunning debt, and rebuilding my savings.

This thing is so not over.

forty2 May 15, 2010 - 12:59pm

It is completely different in different states of the USA. S-P & Don are in Texas which survived the recession well, but these guys forget to say this aloud.

And it is another story in California.


-- China owns 30% of the USA

Singular May 15, 2010 - 10:57pm

also in Texas, west of Don and South of SP, but still in the general area.

"...in Texas which survived the recession well,"

I'm not a rancher or in the computer industry, I'm in mid-management for a local retail chain. Our products are purchased by discretionary dollars, and people in this area either don't have it or are not spending it. My take is that they don't have it.
I'm married, and my wife and I both work. We have no children. We use credit cards only for emergencies. Over the course of the past year and a half, our household has seen a bit of belt-tightening.
I can only imagine what my situation would look like if I had kids in high school and college. I would probably be carrying a load of credit card debt, and probably a second mortgage as well.

We may not be as bad off as California, but things aren't all that rosy here.

______________________________________________________
I got two wooden nickels and a rabbit's foot...
Matt King

OldLakeRat May 17, 2010 - 10:50am

Already first two tables presented are incomprehensible. The point of the story has been to write something for people who do not comprehend about the subject anything and keep them ignorant. Well, that angle sells.

The second table says that Personal Current Transfer Receipts are now about on West European level.


-- China owns 30% of the USA

Singular May 15, 2010 - 11:15pm

Commencement remarks from Christina Romer

William & Mary News, By Christina Romer, May 16

[...]

What we need now is not the withdrawal of support, but further targeted actions that will help the private sector come back more strongly. For example, the President wants to create a lending fund to ensure that small businesses can get the credit they need to continue to grow and create jobs. He is also deeply concerned that state and local government budget deficits could lead to a rash of teacher layoffs that would hurt families, students, and the economy. He is anxious to work with Congress on measures that will blunt this destructive headwind to the recovery. We need to take these measures because, as President Roosevelt so wisely observed, "No country, however rich, can afford the waste of its human resources. Demoralization caused by vast unemployment is our greatest extravagance."


One owes respect to the living. To the dead, one owes only the truth.

Raja May 16, 2010 - 3:26pm

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