Today, and away we go!

and I didn't vote for him. My memory is not short.

domestic petroleum production won't have a positive affect on our energy security. Obama himself said the policy change won't have any affect in the short term or even the near term. Long term - that's where the debate should center. Things we should be thinking about are whether the knee-jerk liberal opposition to offshore drilling has any solid basis. Like nuclear, offshore drilling got a bad rap due to an incident. There was a major spill off Santa Barbara in 1969, I'm not aware of anything else of that magnitude in US waters since. The companies seem to be doing a good job on this score in the Gulf. Dozens of hurricanes have come through without the expected environmental catastrophe. If I am wrong on this, somebody tell me. Three Mile Island did the same thing to nuclear. Yes, there is an unsolved waste disposal problem but that is not the reason no new nuke plants got built, it's the China Syndrome fear factor. Meanwhile the French get 80% of their electric power from nuke plants without incident. I think there has been a real scaredy cat element injected into the American psyche which holds us back from doing things that are in our collective best interests. These energy security issues need to be debated on their actual merits and not the basis of the partisan mudslinging and the Obama is a Republican sellout meme. We are not going to be able to break the oil habit anytime soon. Folks with older cars who can't afford new ones will need gas. Millions of homes heat with oil and have no viable alternative that doesn't involve petroleum products. A sensible adult adult conversation is is order despite the fact that for some it might be more fun for some to bash Obama.

Any offshore field that they find on the Atlantic coast will take 15-20 years to develop minimum. That's just the way they the oil business works. Obama is working on a premise set forward by the EIA that peak oil is at about that time; the EIA is the energy industry. Unfortunately, it is quite probable that peak oil is already in the past. 2012-2013 will be a disaster no amount of drilling will help, even the massive amount of development of existing Iraqi oil fields will not help.

As far as Atomic power is concerned, there are about 1 million tons of Uranium left in the ground; mostly in Australia. The current power plants of the world consume 50K tons a year meaning there is 20 years of fuel available for the existing power plants. The US and Russian military are hording an additional 500K tons; if they can be persuaded to let go of some of that then maybe there is 30 years for existing plants but you see nuclear power can help but only a little.

As for the nuclear, the US and Russia are continuing to play nicer on that score, so there is some hope of the resources being freed up. But, if your timeline is correct were are f*cked since no new nuke plants are being built. The alternative energy resources obviously need to be put on hyper mode. Are your suggesting that the millions of Americans that heat with oil and drive gasoline fueled cars will be SOL or go bankrupt trying to pay in 2012-2013? Peak oil is a tricky business. Your estimate tends to be on the low end of pessimism from what I've read.

And thank you for your thoughtful post.

I think what is happening or will happen is that there is a certain demand for oil, reduced now from what it was but presently increasing. There is a maximum production capability that is currently a few million barrels a day more than the demand. The demand will eventually reach the maximum production quantity this summer like it did in 2008 and bounce off it again causing another recession; destroying demand in a bad way. This cycle will happen over and over again but here is the catch: each time it happens that production ceiling will be lower causing ever deeper blows to demand. Starting in 2012 the production ceiling will accelerate its downward trend; Its not pretty but it could be possible to get out of this cycle. It would be hard though and there would be severe sacrifices; the longer we wait the harder it gets.

What does this look like for you and me? Starting in 2012 we are likely to see shortages at the pump; lines like in the 70's. Within a decade, by 2022 the US will be having a hard time supplying electricity 24x7 to your homes and businesses. Let's hope I'm wrong.

Who lies. Instead of pulling these shenanigans maybe he should look into manipulation of the oil market . . . wait a second I've got a call . . . Oh hello? Lloyd Blankfein on the line? Yes? Investigating commodities market manipulation won't be necessary? Shouldn't investigate mortgage securities fraud . . . bad for economy . . . *his* economy . . . thanks, I'll pass it on.

Well, I guess we'll just have to drill anywhere and everywhere since investigating economic felony isn't "politically feasible" or sanctioned by Obama's bosses. Move along now, nothing to see here. . . .