Listen, But Don't Listen Too Closely


Seljuk Mosque -- Natanz IranRobert Wright writes: " The sooner we get clear on why, the better our hopes of resolving this mess."

The context to the quoted comment is this: why do the Iranians as a whole support the nuclear option?

The answer is really quite easy and I am always surprised by how clueless American policy-makers and commenters are about this issue: they want nukes to preserve their independence. To keep the great powers out of their business. To keep the meddling West from interfering domestically. If you understand anything about Iran historically, the last two-hundred years have been nothing but invasion (coming from Afghanistan) followed by a quasi-partition-cum-colonialism between Russia and Great Britain. This was followed by what the Iranians largely saw as constant American meddling in their domestic affairs, a la Mossadeq's overthrow. The list is long.

Why is this so hard to understand? Ask anyone on the street in Iran and they will tell you this.

I cannot even begin to tell you how many people I met that said something along these lines: "we love the West and Americans. We want to be like you. But we want you to stay out of our business." I had an Iranian women in North Tehran tell me this. Her lovely eyes opened wide and fierce, and her recently sculpted nose flared. She meant it. "Stay out of our business."

"Stay out of our business, or we will arm ourselves so that we can force you to stay out of our business."

"You think we are like Iraq? Think again. We learned from North Korea. They are much more of a menace to you, but they have nukes and you don't invade."

"You think we are like the Afghans? Too busy killing each other and playing polo with dead goats to be civilized?"

"We built Persepolis. We conquered much of the known world two thousand years ago. Have you read our poetry? Know where angels come from? We invented them. Our architects perfected the way of laying a circle on top of a square--the squinch--while your people were having a Dark Age. We took the rough Islam of the desert riders and made it more humane. We faced off with the Romans. And beat them. We've outlasted them all. So, stay out of our business."

It seems like a pretty reasonable thing to ask. Stay out of our business. Don't meddle. Show some respect. And you'll be surprised how far people go on their own. Lead by example.

Makes sense, no?

But then again, I am not a 'serious' American policy-maker. I'm just a dirty-fucking hippie who's been to Iran.

The sad thing about this whole issue is that the Obama Administration and Iran are on a collision course that won't end well.


Sean Paul Kelley February 10, 2010 - 5:13pm
( categories: Iran )

maybe because Americans are idiots???

funny i could be considered a dirty fucking hippie too... snark...
;-)

johnfire February 10, 2010 - 6:31pm

"We faced off with the Romans. And beat them. We've outlasted them all."

Two words: Genghis Khan.

And not much since then. Although my Person clients, the an ambassador to London and very educated person, tells me the same story of interference, and state they believe the US wants Iran to be weak.

Synoia February 10, 2010 - 7:12pm

was captured by the Persians. A Roman emperor he was. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valerian_(emperor)

I saw this very bas relief with my own eyes: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Shapur_I_Valerian_Bas_Relief.jpg

Not much since Genghis Khan? I think the Shah Abbas would disagree. Some of the most magnificent architecture in the world is in Isfahan, including the Sheikh Lutfollah.

The Persians were also instrumental in assimilating the mongol hordes, converting them to Islam and building on their legacy in a peaceful and prosperous way.

And of course the US wants Iran to be either a.) weak or b.) a controllable ally. That's in our national interest. And no, I am not being cheeky.

"Sí che dal fatto il dir non sia diverso."

-Dante

Sean Paul Kelley February 10, 2010 - 7:20pm

From one of my customers:

Persian: "Persia had a great empire, before it fell"
Q: "What happened to the Persian Empire?"
A: From Persian "Genghis Khan".

Not my opinion. My Persian client.

Great building and great cultures are not necessarily synonymous. For example, Bavaria under Mad King Ludwig. Built some beautiful castles, great culture? Not so much.

Synoia February 10, 2010 - 8:03pm

The "mad" king after all also sponsored Wagner whose operas are still staples of the Met.

Also you should give the Bavarian parliament some credit for removing him from power after running up the royal debt.

In all likelihood Bush Jr. was as mad, if not more so, than Ludwig yet I did not see such enterprising creativity from the esteemed Congress to pry his fingers from power.

quax February 10, 2010 - 11:13pm

The Austro-Hungarian Empire.
and
The Russian Empire to the East.
The French to the West
The British over the Channel.
And the Ottomans in Turkey, beaten back from Europe by the Austro-Hungarians about 200 years earlier.

Certainly not Bavaria.

Bush was in no way like Mad King Ludwig. More like Oliver Cromwell, a religious nut, militaristic, completly lacking in humiility, and parroted Cromwell's gentle treatment of the Irish.

Synoia February 11, 2010 - 12:32am

... Bush was like Mad King Ludwig. He was far worse. Ludwig just spent like a drunken soldier on fun stuff. Much more forgivable. The only thing in common is that technically neither of the two men were mad.

quax February 11, 2010 - 11:58am

Really, dirty fucking hippie that i am, i cannot understand how it's any of our goddamned business.

Lex February 10, 2010 - 7:40pm

Prior to the proliferation concerns, the US pursued a policy of dual containment and the rest of the world (particularly European powers) thought they were nuts - and were quite content to go along to get along with Iran. Hell, even Israel reflexively leaned towards the well trodden peripheral powers path (took quite a lot to get them off that in the 90's). After the nuclear fascination, amazing how pissed and comparatively unified all the western powers became. If that's "don't meddle" I really don't want to see the "want some? come get some" strategy.

Personally, I think one shouldn't overlook internal dynamics as an explanatory factor.

“If the point of grand strategy is to increase your options and decrease your opponent's options, how come so many folks seem to get the controls reversed?" ~ not-Richard Haass

JustPlainDave February 10, 2010 - 9:28pm

that since 2001, the US has been busy occupying two of Iran's neighbors. That might have some slight effect on Iran's thinking.

Lex February 11, 2010 - 12:03am

However, I don't think one can attribute Iran's pursuit of a nuclear capability simply to the desire to keep the US out of its affairs. In 2003, if the NIE is to be believed, they ceased the weapons development part of their program, in large part because of that same American presence. The program itself long pre-dates 2001, tracks back through pre-dominantly regional security concerns and originates with the Shah's larger desire to be the regional hegemon and quasi-independent [i.e., with explicit US support as part of the dual pillars strategy] guarantor of regional security for the world in the post-British withdrawal Gulf. Fast-forward it to the recent past and it's found anew the Shah's ambition and is also all tied up with the massive economic re-organization of Iran in the fallout from the Revolution and the rise of the Pasdaran [a convenient shorthand] and like establishments.

All of this, and the polling data related in the original article being linked to, a rather long-winded way of saying - it just ain't so simple as "it's all down to the US and the west". There's an awful lot going on here with potent internal drivers, many illusory and quite counter-productive in the long term. The notion that it's all down to the outsiders seems to lead many to what I think is the comforting illusion that if the outsiders simply change their behaviour the Iranian behaviour will magically become less problematic - and I don't see that happening.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave February 11, 2010 - 8:50am

Most things are dreadfully complicated and i doubt seriously that this issue can be boiled down to just Iran's dealing with the West.

But it has become clear that about the only thing that can save you from a preemptive strike by the American Empire is being armed with nuclear weapons.

I think that Iran's motivations and desires in this are quite complicated, but i think that the US position is very simple. Anything that detracts from the global hegemony is a threat that will/must be countered. Going against the US in anything is a defacto declaration of war for a nation like Iran. But doing something like building a nuclear weapon has the possibility to seriously constrain or God-ordained right to stomp around wherever we want.

Lex February 11, 2010 - 9:11am

To add to Lex's response, our presence and posture both historically and now lend a certain urgency to Iran's nuclear position that wouldn't exist with respect to merely regional concerns. Other than our proxies (Israel and Iraq during the past war with Iran) nobody really threatens the Iranian position of strength in the region.

I would argue further that their particular strength comes from the perception that the Iranian regime is the only regime in the area (Israel excepted) that has widespread popular support. To the extent that we urge and are responsible for regime change unrest leading to an excess of regime paranoia we undermine one of the greatest restraints on Iranian nuclear development vis their regional position.

hvd February 11, 2010 - 11:32am

Iran had what seemed to be a great ruler, Nader Shah. After rapid success in skillfully reestablishing Iran's place in the region, lost his mind and bearing and Iran was devastated:

By mid century (18th) most of the built up areas of Isfahan, the former capitol, was deserted and inhabited by only owls and wild animals. In the last year of the Savafids, it had been a thriving city of 550,000, one of the worlds largest cities - similar to the size of London at the time only larger. ... Persia fell from a population of nine million at the beginning of the century (18th) to perhaps six million ... Trade fell to one fifth of its previous level.

A History of Iran - Empire of the Mind (p. 167)

This is what the Russian and British empires encountered. It adds a special flavor to the bitterness of conquest and exploitation.

Michael Collins February 10, 2010 - 10:08pm

Sort of OT, but this film was one of a very few ever to reduce me to a bawling puddle of snot.

forty2 February 10, 2010 - 10:15pm

Flatland people get invaded constantly; mountain people get occupied for awhile and then the occupiers give up. Egypt was a colony from AD 0 to AD 1945. Afghanistan is still Afghan, mostly, except for the parts where 1 out of 10 men gets his Y chromosome from Ghenghis Kahn's grandfather. Tibet is an extreme case: when flatland people invade (like the Chinese), they die of heart disease from the elevation.

Iran is an in-between case: the Persian center is a bowl surrounded by mountains. The southern access from the Persian Gulf looks less forbidding than the rest, but geez: you can see why they're still a coherent culture and ethnic group.

Now, look at that sliver of flatland to the southwest of the bowl, next to Iraq. That's where all the oil is. And Arabs live on that land, not Persians. The Iran-Iraq war was about Iraq trying to steal that oil by pushing the Iranian border up to the mountains. And we backed them.


View Larger Map

Persian Gulf access:

Sunnstein is the new Godwin

Tonsure Wimple February 11, 2010 - 3:16am

I am woefully ignorant of the geography in the region, other than knowing Afghan is extremely mountainous, Iraq is desert, Iran had mountains in the North.

zot23 February 11, 2010 - 11:53am

indicate, most especially during the Fatamid period, Egypt was a prime mover and actor in the events of the region. And then there were the Mamlukes--who just happened to beat off the Mongols at the Battle of Ayn Jalut.

"Sí che dal fatto il dir non sia diverso."

-Dante

Sean Paul Kelley February 11, 2010 - 12:02pm

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