And telling the US to pound sand (or oil shale maybe).

It's unlikely though, since Canada is a natural ally of the US, sharing borders and language, and the US would probably back it up in any conflict with Russia.

It's difficult to predict 30 years out (Isaac Asmov's Hari Seldon notwithstanding), but I'd say it's 50:50 whether the USA will still be unified this far out. I think a Soviet style breakup is a real possibility. There isn't much point for the various regions of the USA to cohere, in light of the enormous debts Uncle Sam continues to run up (debasing the currency), the increasing polarization, and the enormous corruption that is seeping out of the cracks. The tendency over the last few decades is for states to balkanize.

Minor grammatical nit: Learn the difference between "it's" and "its". "It's" should ONLY be used as a contraction of "it is". Every time you see "it's" you should be able to mentally decompress it into "it is". When people erroneously use "it's" to indicate possesion this is like trying to put an apostrophe in "his" or "hers".

The states will secede alone or in groups as the reach of federal power recedes and becomes spotty at best. The states will not be satisfied with sending money to a Central government that is needed at home. The states will not want to continue participation in a currency that is beholden to foreign interests. Finally, the states will want to get things done that the Federal government cannot do. Some areas of the country will become wealthy if they are on their own because they export energy while others will be underwater, literally.

We need a NATION WIDE STRIKE for Real healthcare reform

I think you are extrapolating a lot of recent trends into the future in a linear fashion. When things are kind of crappy, that leads to a very bleak picture.

http://www.xkcd.com

An interesting collection of world population data from various sources has been condensed in a Wiki online. It reports that, at the present moment, the planet is home to 6.795 billion people according to estimates from the US Census Bureau. Although growth has levelled off somewhat since the 80s people are now living longer. By 2040, barring pestilence, disease, international disaster or global war, you'll be vying for parking space (and food) with well over 9 billion other folks. (It should be noted that many suggest both these figures are grossly underestimated.)

The United Nations notes "Of the 78 million people currently added to the world each year, 95 per cent live in the less developed regions. Eighty per cent of the world currently reside in the less developed regions. At the beginning of the century, 70 per cent did so. By 2050, the share of the world population living in the currently less developed regions will have risen to 90 per cent."

Oops.

Oh yes, and another thing, furthur according to the UN's 2006 Revision of World Population Prospects, by 2045 the number of older persons in the world (those aged 60 years or over) will likely surpass, for the first time in history, the number of children (i.e., persons under age 15). This crossover is the consequence of the long term reductions in fertility and mortality that are leading to the steady ageing of the world population.

All things considered, there seems little doubt that the feeding, housing, educating, employing and caring for that extra 2+ billion people, many of whom are already among us, others whose arrival is imminent, will put an enormous strain on states and resources.

I will most likely have reluctantly escaped this mortal coil by then so for me, at least, the world will have ended by 2040.

However, if you expect to stick around, here's an awesome assortment of depressing world mortality clocks. The site has a number of other related live data sets too. You can even track how many buffalo are being killed, minute by minute, in real time. (Who knew?)

Anyway, if you ask me, any contemplation of future probalities must take into account the needs / demands of increased population and its distribution in underdeveloped nations.

They lack significant natural resources. Their population is aging so there will be fewer brilliant young minds to innovate. There is a cultural aversion, with good reason, to militarism. They've given up on the colonial and imperial impulse necessary to build bases overseas in order to project power. They are still very good at exporting, good enough in fact to pay the bills and live comfortably without all the stress that comes with being a superpower. To start patrolling international waters, they will first need a navy, and all the reasons above militate against that.

Other than that, the rest of the presentation is cogent and, in a sad way, convincing.

...oil are bad; you ain't seen nothing; the wars over water will make oil wars pale by comparison.

The Australian Bureau of Stats provides three main series of projections, Series A, B and C, which have been selected from a possible 72 individual combinations of the various assumptions. Series B largely reflects current trends in fertility, life expectancy at birth, net overseas migration and net interstate migration, whereas Series A and Series C are based on high and low assumptions for each of these variables respectively. ABS
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An aging population bodes well for the aged care industry.

Our two biggest woes are the destruction of the coast line due to weather changes which will affect upto 80% of the population and the continuing degradation of the eastern river systems will wreak havoc with food production and life style for 90%+.

Australian lifestyle is supported by mining, which cannot go on forever and the increasing oil and gas ocean exploration which impinges on the sovereignty of East Timor and possibly Indonesia.

Food production depends on weather extremes not becoming too bad, manufacturing is dying by the month.

The threat of invasion from Indonesia, India or China to lessen their population pressure may occur if the USA can no longer sustain military assistance.
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wider thoughts...
What technology brings, who knows? Maybe we will have cyborg implants to connect with each other. The form factor of cell phones is possibly reaching an optimum at present, and ear pieces seem clumsy, some form of implant may be achievable

An increasing medication of the population will probably happen to maintain a sense of equilibrium in society - perhaps in the water or food supply.

Sean Paul, you're slightly more optimistic than me. I've been turning your thought experiment over in my head (trying to put it together for a diary post), but i'm not there yet.

I see the economic collapse, very similar to the USSR/Russian 90's. I see the rise and conflict between Russia and China. I see a basket case of a world "led" by the worst basket case of the bunch: the USofA.

But i also see a militaristic and fascist rise in the US, probably led by Christian Zionists/Dominionists in the military. And i won't be at all surprised if it's the US that launches a few nuclear strikes.

Remember that Jesus can't return until the Temple has been rebuilt. I'm looking for the faux, Islamic (maybe nuclear) nuclear terrorist attack on Jerusalem leading to an overwhelming response--quite possibly nuclear--by the US on everyone in the ME who hasn't accepted Jesus.

I figure it won't matter much to me personally, as i'll surely be dead or in a prison camp somewhere feeling like Ivan Denisovich.

He's so good at doomsaying, I'd love to get his take on an American economic collapse.