And the way things are going now; that will be a good thing.

The Rights of Women

Women will have made advancements across the globe – chiefly in those countries where their rights today are heavily restricted, such as in the Middle East. In most countries, women will enjoy the same rights available to a woman in France or Japan or the US today, but in these countries, women will improve their situation only marginally. This will still be a patriarchal world, and wars and insurrections will remain the work of men.

The fundamental right available to most women will be control over reproduction, since access to contraception will be nearly universal. Because of this fundamental development, the main issue facing our species in 2040 will be Peak Population. It will be evident even by 2025 that in most countries humans will not be reproducing enough to prevent a decline in population. Global population will peak around 9 billion and by 2040 will already be in decline, which will be dramatic in countries that cannot or will not induce enough immigration to compensate.

Peak Population will be the result partly of the inability of our species to feed, water, shelter and even clothe itself properly. But the principal motivation will be a paradox: the cost of raising a human to adulthood will be too high for all but the wealthiest families, and consequently women will be averaging less than the 2.1 children necessary to even stabilize population. The largest cost associated with child rearing will be education, since an adult will need at least a college education to survive on its own.

Enormous efforts will be made by governments to stimulate population growth, the major effort being universal education through college paid for by government. This will forestall Peak Population but not avert it, since environmental and other pressures – especially the right of women to have a career – will still work against having more than 2.1 children. Abortion will not be outlawed but it will be viewed socially as irresponsible, and in some areas as morally repugnant.

Environment

Extrapolating from today’s global warming trends, it is possible to forecast a very bleak future for our species and others on the planet. If as looks feasible global warming is accelerating beyond even the pessimistic models, many currently habitable areas will be unlivable around coasts and in deserts. Thousands of other species will disappear, mostly in the insect kingdom, with the more noticeable losses among large mammals. The lost of habitat will be ascribed in part to the human infestation of the planet which will continue to encroach on the remaining open spaces, but desertification of the globe, including the oceans which in vast areas will become too saline to support life, will wipe out thousands of species on its own.

It is possible that global warming will be forestalled if solar energy reaching the earth is throttled back should the sun enter a prolonged “solar minimum”, which may be underway. Even so, human pollution and habitat loss will not prevent continued species extinction and environmental degradation. These developments will feed negatively into the Peak Population phenomenon; the average person will be well aware by 2040 of the shrinking safe areas on the globe for humans to live, and will have yet another constraint to consider when bringing children into the world.

Development and Economics

Globalization will have run its course by 2040. Most countries, except for pockets of very poor places, will be economically on the same plane. By 2040, China will be as developed as the US, but what this means is that the standard of living of Americans, as with Australians, British, Swedes, etc., will have been lowered to meet the raised living standards of the Chinese, Indians, Brazilians, etc. Income disparity will be universal, with the richest 1% consuming and controlling 90% of the global wealth. In places like the US there will be occasional protests and uprisings, but the wealthy will remain in firm control over political and business institutions, and most importantly media and entertainment, since these will be even more critical levers of control over what is left of the middle class, and the vast underclass that will have enough income to “make do.” Making do on less will be an established if not revered social moré.

Capitalism will be in crisis. The driving force of capitalism is growth – growth in revenue, net income, investment, feeding in turn into growth in earnings per share and the stock price. This wealth machine at its core depends on population growth as a rising number of consumers helps create the growth that defines capitalism, but Peak Population will deprive capitalism of its raison d́ etre. Economic theories will be devised to explain this new world, and they will focus on a theory of Neo-Feudalism, in which economic actors like corporations will define success as maintaining market share. A high premium will therefore be put on innovation and the development of new products with slightly higher margins than existing products. In this way corporations will be able to grab market share from a shrinking population.

Agriculture and Food

A cute little acronym will have become common by 2040 – POW! – referring to the three scourges of the planet: peak Population, Oil, and Water. Acute shortages of the latter two will contribute to Peak Population, as the human species will find itself trapped, unable to feed itself, unable to run its industrialized societies without cheap oil, and therefore unable to sustain population at 9 billion. Environmental degradation will put even more pressure on the human species and contribute in its own way to the POW effect.

It will be a toss-up as to whether water or oil shortages will be more severe, but a lot will depend on where you live. More and more humans will be fighting desertification and will be flocking to any place with stable, fresh water. Such places will be under political stress to keep out newcomers. There will be considerable progress in techniques like desalinization of sea water, so that costs will go down for extraction, but water will be too costly still to waste on open-air irrigation or with extravagant showers and toilets. Access to fresh water lakes and streams will be deemed highly valuable and therefore will be subject to political if not military conflict.

As sweet, cheap crude oil will be disappearing slowly over the next few decades, with the disappearance accelerating over time under Peak Oil, societies everywhere will be forced to shift to expensive alternatives. The French Model will be much admired and discussed, with its reliance on an extensive nuclear power system. The fundamental rights of man will be viewed, at least informally, to include the right to nuclear energy.

Military/War

The global political order will itself evolve into Neo-Feudalism, with power shared unevenly among large population countries such as the US, China, and India, courting small population countries like Saudi Arabia that have access to oil or water. Countries such as Russia, which has a large but already shrinking population but also has access to oil and water, will be in a privileged position. In this world, global cooperation through organizations such as the UN will not be easy, and the UN itself may cease to exist. About the only major advance in global cooperation will be in the tracking of every ounce of spent nuclear fuel, in order to prevent the development of nuclear weapons since so many countries will have nuclear power.

Large scale war will be viewed as a thing of the past. For this reason, the United States will early in the century lose its hegemonic power. Its military will be seen to be bloated and out-dated for the regional conflicts over resources that will define 21st century war. Insurrectionists will have learned the valuable lessons from the Iraq wars on how to stymie a great military power with cheap, home-made incendiary devices exploited through guerilla warfare. No military answer will be available on how to fight those forces willing to use suicide bombers, though over time it will be seen that this technique is counterproductive in extended insurrections that stretch over many years.

The question for China will be whether it learns from the experience of the US and USSR and avoids bankrupting itself with a massive military/industrial complex. The odds of succeeding in this are not high, unfortunately, as long as China remains a controlled economy where the temptation for corruption between the state and the manufacturing sector remains high. Consequently, global power for a time will be bi-polar, shared by China and a descendant US, but eventually India and Russia will take their place in a new version of the 19th century Great Game.

How these nations govern themselves will be of paramount importance, because Neo-Feudalism will be reflected in a tendency toward political disintegration within nation-states, and collapse altogether of the nation-state concept in favor of small regional duchies that align themselves along resource strengths. As an example, the population surrounding the Great Lakes may find common cause in protecting their fresh water resources, and they might establish a collective government that can stand up readily to either Washington or Ottawa. This will be possible because these duchies will have access to armies through their domestic police forces, which are already beginning the process of conversion to paramilitary forces and which eventually will only lack airpower in standing up to national militaries. But again, the lessons on how to defeat massive national armies are already available from the Iraq wars, and Neo-Feudalism will expand because the nation-state will have lost its monopoly on military power.

I want the above one out there as much as possible because then it likely will not happen. We never get the future we anticipate.

That said: Here is my contribution to a possible future

The International Community manages to shift the tax system away from one based upon taxing workers, companies and investments to one that taxes energy, materials and consumption. It is a hybrid VAT tax regime that is adopted by all participating economies, a portion of which is retained in the emerging global community to specifically deal with issues and costs associated with global warming, vaccination and the transition from fossil based energy.

This has a tremendous impact that increases employment, accelerates the reduction in fossil energy, and leads to new innovations in energy, materials and consuming behavior. Minimalism is in. Renewable energy continues to be a form of energy not subject to tax for a period of at least twenty years.

By 2025 a global minimum wage is instituted, one that is required to participate in the global trade regimes. The moniker is Fair Trade not Free Trade. However the differentials between the highest- and lowest-paid workers likely widens because of the importance of education on productivity. That is not a problem that can be solved and the global minimum remains low.

In 2040, the global population reaches 8.5 billion, but something remarkable happens in 2040. Chinas population begins to decline and currently 2/3's of all countries have either stabilized their populations or begun to decline. The population is at its all time high but will never see 9 billion. In fact it could leave the century in 2100 back at the 6 billion that began the century.

In 30 years industry will have been obsessively reducing their waste and throughputs of energy such that by 2040 use of materials and energy will be about as efficient as can be achieved resulting in the near total elimination of pollution. Modern economies around the world will have adopted a fully cyclic materials economy.

The scale of production capital will be greatly reduced because much of the efficiencies will have resulted from the total decentralization of energy production. Gone are utilities with large coal nuclear plants. Rather utilities will be centered upon their grids tying together vast networks of wind energy systems, solar roofs, and even a vast network of auto batteries that are tied into the grid from which peak power needs can be drawn.

Decentralization spreads in all its forms. Gone or large book publishing houses, newspapers, television networks, the vast institutions on which people rely. Rather reduced production capital allows new ideas to be smaller and geographically dispersed.

Manufacturing businesses will make all of the profit from services, designing their hard goods with software interiors that can be changed and upgraded and improved along the Ipod model of design.

All devices can be revised, made new, and recycled. There will be no trash. All objects will be required to be fully recyclable.

Agriculture will become increasingly local for the same reason, the reduced capital entry costs has profoundly positive impacts on agriculture. The network of wind energy towers provides a steady income to small farmers, and the reduced costs of farming because of the absence of centralized inputs has created many smaller and more focused, dynamic farms. It is a localised, low-input model that has moved decidedly off the meat based model fed with the uniform fields of corn. Though corn is still an important crop along with soy beans, but now for the manufacture products it derives: plastics, resins, inks, dyes and a myriad of products too many to name. The entire manufacture system has moved off fossil fuels for these types of products as well.

A little less bleak, but just as possible.

China is the leading country of the world and includes Africa and Cuba. The USA tried to challenge China using Taiwan, but the USA was nuked out of the map by China. The EU including Russia, applies the membership of China.

The Rights of Women

Sarah Palin is 85 years old and tries to win some election by joining the democratic party. She loses still.

_{--Sell Texas to China!}

But seriously:

1. Population will actually decrease, but not as quickly as arable land. Oil based chemical fertilizers will be abandoned due to problems with saline in the soil. Elimination of factory feedlots will mean no more cheap beef in the US. Armies in Europe and the US will increasingly be deployed to repel waves of immigrants from low lying coastal regions in the third world, which have been flooded due to global warming.

2. "Peak Oil" will NOT have been reached. New reserves are discovered under the melted icecaps of the North Pole. Canada and Russia will benefit greatly and open sea lanes over the north pole mean cheap and easy trade with between the new 'northern powers.'

3. The European Union's success as a confederation will prompt other trade and military alliances between regions. The US will attempt to force a military integration alliance with oil and water rich Canada, but it will be repelled when Canada tests nuclear weapons it developed with Russian help. The United Nations will dissolve.

4. The US will attempt to extort 'protection' money from nations in which it maintains military bases, because of a decimated tax base and a "Sparta" like martial economy where billionaires pay no taxes and feudal workers are only paid in food, clothes, narcotics and shelter. But the plan will backfire when police forces in Germany, Japan, Korea and the Philippines seize control of both weapons and bases. Japan reasserts its right to a standing army and aligns with a Pacific Island trade and military alliance not so much in opposition to the US, but in response to saber rattling from China.

5. China's environment will be one of the worst in the industrial world. Thanks to heavy lead and mercury in the soil it will begin to import most of its food from its Empire in Africa. Still, fresh water will be in extremely short supply. Russia will beef up its border defense and threaten China with nuclear 'first strike.'

6. Israel will become a fascist dictatorship. It will expel all Arabs and expand settlements into sovereign territory. All citizens will be forced to demonstrate 'racial purity' - many US jews who wish to immigrate will be denied on grounds that they have some "Christian blood."

7. Muslim states will restore a regional caliphate in the mideast. Military alliances will mean a nuclear armed Saudi Arabia. Iran will be re-named Persia.

8. India and Pakistan will battle using tactical nuclear weapons and end up completely obliterating the Kashmir region. Pakistan, part of the regional Muslim caliphate will adopt Afghanistan as a protectorate and wage a 'warm' proxy war in Afghanistan, sometimes with China, sometimes with India.

Historical Note: The Agonist started as a turn of the century Blog but converted to shared augmented conversation or SAC in 2016. The full archive can be found Here

Agonist International Conversation Topics Nov. 4, 2039

1. Negotiations were broken off between the República del Sur de California and the Federation of Pacific States. Negotiators were attempting to bridge an impasse over rebuilding of canals, pumps and pipelines by the FPS that, before Northern Separatists blew them up, supplied the old city of Los Angeles with water. (6 VSLI, 22,234 comments)

2. The city of Spokane joined other Northern cities in refusing to accept more refugees from the flooded former Houston and Miami metropolitan areas. (11 VSLI, 65432 comments)

3. The People's Republic of China offered technical aid to the FPS for scrapping several nuclear submarines left over after disbanding the navy of the former United States in 2021. (2 VSLI, 18,117 comments)

4. Some residents began returning to the Baltimore area as radiation levels become safe. Radiation in the former US capitol remain at unsafe levels after 12 years. (3 VSLI, 12907 comments).

5. Kristo Jihadists fired missiles into Spokane from from the Idaho Protectorate; no injuries or fatalities are reported at this time. The rockets were fired when negotiations between Cour de Alene Kristo Warlord, Fred Davies and FPS representatives broke down. (5 VSLI, 33956 comments)

6. New York establishes international rail service with Raleigh. (3 VSLI, 7123 comments)

7. Known troublemaker and long time wirehead, Joaquin was apprehended while speeding in his wheel chair. "I can't believe how old he is" commented the arresting officer. (1 VSLI, 2 comments, 1 request for delete)

Agonist Sports News

1. NY 287/9(50) | PEN 149/10(39.2) (PEN won by 138 runs) (732 VSLI, 3,476,902 comments)

We need a NATION WIDE STRIKE for Real healthcare reform

the internet, a meme in the making!

A great read Numerian, and it will be interesting to see how where else it is syndicated.

A world like the one described in "Altered Carbon" ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altered_Carbon ) . Probably, not involving other planets, but just Earth. BAsically, those who can pay for new sleeves can go on and live indefinitely. The others are kept in storage, if they are lucky enough to be able to pay the fees.

Seriously, if the rich could buy immortality, I think that is what would cause massive revolutions. Now, the major disparities in wealth are not producing a revolution because, in the end, we all die at similar rates. There is some form of justice, after all. A society can push unfairness only so much, before something happens.

http://movies.nytimes.com/2009/11/06/movies/06collapse.html

I did inhale.