David Sanger: "Iran Close To Nukes." But Not Really


Motherfucker.

Sorry, I just had to say that.

Am I the only one that read this article in the Times and spit shit out all over my screen in disgust? Really, there is nothing, absolutely nothing new except a whole raft of 'coulds' and 'ifs' jumbled together to make it look like Iran was TeH close to having a bomb, so fuck, the Israelis are going to bomb 'em and we should too!

Sanger writes: "While there is little doubt inside the United States government that Iran’s ultimate goal is to create a weapons capability, there is some skepticism about whether an Iranian government that is distracted by an internal power struggle would take that risky step, as well as the questions about how quickly it could overcome remaining technological hurdles."

Hey David, why don't you actually do some journalism and inform your readers what those 'remaining technological hurdles' are?

I need a drink.

Update: Newshoggers deconstructs, brutally so. Read it.

UPDATE 10/4: Sanger Strikes Again: Report Says Iran Has Data to Make a Nuclear Bomb ~ did they get the data off the internet? ;) and 10/5: Newshoggers' latest Sanger rebuttal
 
original post Sep 10 ~ editors


Sean Paul Kelley October 3, 2009 - 7:55pm
( categories: Iran )

I mean what technical hurdles could be left to overcome?

We need a NATION WIDE STRIKE for Real healthcare reform

Joaquin September 9, 2009 - 4:32pm

is the "FOR THE RECORD" statement. Its kind of admitting that the CIA thinks that the ongoing operations are anything but a farce. Everyone, who counts knows what happened, the CIA and the Iranians. We are just leaving out one itsy bitsy interested party, namely the American people who don't need to know the kind of farce their tax dollars are buying them or what kind of idiots would modify a bomb plan and assume the Iranians are not smart enough to figure it out on their own.

We need a NATION WIDE STRIKE for Real healthcare reform

Joaquin September 9, 2009 - 4:49pm

If you exchange Iraq for Iran - something we've been doing for decades as the need for a proper villain arises - your link to the CIA article is (Spoiler Alert) the plot of the movie Deterrence from 2000. Your link says CIA purported to have handed off flawed plans to Iran in 2004.

I can just see it now; CIA case officer with an afternoon to kill, rummaging through the clearance bin at Blockbuster... Hey, what's this?

I always wondered where they got their hair brained ideas.

steven r September 9, 2009 - 5:05pm

one for me, while you're at it.

_____________________________________________________
Distrust anyone who wants to teach you something.

OldLakeRat September 9, 2009 - 4:32pm

...that is broadly appropriately caveated and reflects the significant uncertainties around the Iranian program (and western interpretations of the program). This is far more to be applauded than the faux certainty of "brutal" deconstruction such as that referenced above. We just came through a period where we survived the strategic straitjacket of the 1% doctrine - I'll be damned if we should be rushing to replace it with an equally restrictive 100% rhetorical doctrine. Certainty is for morals, not intelligence analysis.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 10, 2009 - 7:21am

article was the fact that Iran doesn't have an HEU, but has LEU.

You and I both know that this is the supreme hurdle Iran has yet to overcome. It's all about potential at this point. Sure, Iran has the potential to turn the LEU into HEU, just as I have the potential to fellate myself. That doesn't mean either are going to happen any time soon.

"All men's gains are the fruit of venturing."

-Herodotus

Sean Paul Kelley September 10, 2009 - 9:35am

...currently have HEU and that there are differing opinions on whether or when that might happen and that this drives quite different policies in different nations. I'm not gonna get upset that they don't spoonfeed the reader to that extent.

In terms of going to HEU being a supreme hurdle, as hurdles go it isn't that high given current capabilities, at least from a purely technical standpoint. Politically it would be huge, but technically the Iranians can readily accomplish this. There are a range of reasons why it is believed that it won't happen before 2013, but to talk about it with as much certainty as folks have is not a great idea - my view, certainty would have to be based on the SWU calcs and the end result they spit out ain't gonna be 2013. Me, I think you try and paint things so black and white and you end up paying for it down the road (I remember talk about how silly the notion was that the NorKs had a uranium enrichment program, the absolute denials and the outrage that someone would take such a notion seriously - that talk don't look so good in retrospect; good thing they weren't setting policy).

As to the issue of potential, what's intelligence about if it isn't in large part about potential? Issues and files (to use CanGov speak) move and evolve - that "any time soon" is a good deal sooner than it was three years ago and a whole lot sooner than it was six years ago. To keep looking at stuff through the same familiar lens, relying on insufficiently tested absolutes as proof is to pretty much guarantee that the issue's going to bite and bite hard, high and repeatedly. All of this is increasingly hinging on go/no go decisions made high in the Iranian state apparatus and frankly we don't have a lot of insight there (certainty of blog prognostication notwithstanding) and that apparatus is currently more than customarily agitated and perhaps more prone to unforeseen decisions.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave September 10, 2009 - 11:48am

IIRC North Korea did have a small uranium enrichment program, however the bombs they tested were plutonium, obtained through an entirely different process. Check it out. If so, your opinion in the comments is misleading. Reason is not served well by irrational fears.
There is a world surplus of misleading opinions when it comes to nuclear politics that misinform and confuse those not familiar with the subject.
Centrifugal separation was the technique originally used by the US in its early research and development of nuclear weapons and now is a primitive method for enrichment of uranium, the cycles needed to enrich to weapons grade (93%+) require an immense expenditure of energy and time, both notably apparent in facility accountings and missing from IAEA onsite observations. The only research reactor available to the Iranians that has the potential to produce plutonium is used for production of medical isotopes and is under close IAEA inspection at all times, (this is the reactor that is out of fuel and Iran is forwarding most of its stock of slightly enriched uranium to Russia for further enrichment to the required levels (20% or about 1/5th the enrichment level of weapons grade).
How much of the above has appeared in US sources?
Sorry to disagree about your conclusions re intelligence and what it means. When the IAEA is not allowed access to the process, and that has not happened, then is the time to become concerned, false alarmism lead nowhere.

Arnie October 4, 2009 - 2:36am

...so firmly to things like they have this tendency to do. I recall folks engaging in dialogue to the effect that their policy opponents were so stupid they believed that the North Koreans had a uranium enrichment program when plainly they didn't - and that this was an indication that those opponents couldn't be trusted about anything, that they were vile, evil, fear mongering bastards, etc. etc. [I exaggerate only a little for effect.] When the field reverses on them, they end up looking pretty stupid - provided that anyone's still paying attention, of course. ;)

As to the material you cite, absolutely all of it has appeared in US sources, multiple times [as an aside, in my view the Iranian material shouldn't be characterized as slightly enriched [<2%] - it's low enriched [3-5%, tending towards the lower] and it is always important to keep in the back of our minds that it's approximately half the way to high enrichment, from a SWU perspective - though we shouldn't freak about it either]. Me, I think false complacency is as dangerous as false alarmism, when the aim is to have a player voluntarily stop as far short as possible of latent nuclear capability. We need to advocate that things be viewed from a rational middle ground in order to preserve the most room for political maneuver - and that is in the main not what the commentariat is doing; folks are attempting to force new evidence into supporting their existing positions rather than letting it lead them where it should. My overarching point - craft a supple, informed position so that when ugly data comes along, as it so often does, it doesn't cut limbs out from beneath oneself.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave October 4, 2009 - 9:17am

The Iranian government has told the Obama administration and its Western allies that it is ready to hold "comprehensive, all-encompassing and constructive" negotiations on a range of security issues, including global nuclear disarmament.

But the new proposal is silent on Iran's own nuclear program.

Propublica

Tina September 11, 2009 - 10:06am

Report Says Iran Has Data to Make a Nuclear Bomb

"While the analysis represents the judgment of the nuclear agency’s senior staff, a struggle has erupted in recent months over whether to make it public. The dispute pits the agency’s departing director, Mohamed ElBaradei, against his own staff and against foreign governments eager to intensify pressure on Iran.

Dr. ElBaradei has long been reluctant to adopt a confrontational strategy on Iran, an approach he sees as counterproductive. Responding to calls for the report’s release, he has raised doubts about its completeness and reliability...

In recent interviews, a senior European official familiar with the contents of the full report described it to The New York Times. "

Nice job of undercutting ElBaradei on Iran at a critical moment when he's in Iran


I feel the American worker has been sacrificed to the capitalist idols in the ancient Mayan fashion. - Sue Lamb, NYT reader

nymole October 3, 2009 - 8:55pm

why bother with a nuclear program of any size? You don't need much of a nuke program to make a dirty bomb that you could then threaten to detonate over Rome or Tel Aviv.

Or was all the moaning about how terrified we should all be that al Qaeda could do the same with a fraction of the resources simple bullshit?


"The best-informed man is not necessarily the wisest. Indeed there is a danger that precisely in the multiplicity of his knowledge he will lose sight of what is essential."

- Dietrich Bonhoeffer

Escher Sketch October 3, 2009 - 10:54pm

That would pretty much level Europe and the US
We need a NATION WIDE STRIKE for Real healthcare reform

Joaquin October 4, 2009 - 10:40pm

It would be good if the US government would cop on that it is the only nation on this blighted planet ever to have actually used nuclear weapons and that against civilian populations.

Padraig Colman October 3, 2009 - 10:51pm

The allegations currently abroad of Iranian nuclear weapon development are proven propaganda disinformation issuing from the WH and Tel Aviv with ancillary mouthpieces yapping, as lapdogs will, in London, Paris, Berlin and Rome. Asia Times has a three part history of the lead up to Obama's G-20 revelations that he is a liar (the third part linked here has links to the prior parts:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KJ02Ak02.html

The only word missing out of Washington's disinformation and fear-mongering campaign is WMD but it is heavily implied in its absence. There is little changed otherwise from the run up (assault) to the attack on, invasion of and brutal genocidal occupation of Iraq and the subsequent judicial murder of the leading witnesses to US involvement in crimes against humanity in the region.
Links to Asia Times parts 1 and 2:

Part 1: http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KI30Ak01.html

Part 2: http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KJ01Ak03.html

Highly recommended reading, informative, having context and history in a competent narrative, unlike the propaganda rags that serve the American public. Asia Times provides the quality reporting that is required in a Republic and is so sadly missing in this republic. It will not end well.

Arnie October 4, 2009 - 1:45am

-there would be no need for these leaks at this moment, if so.


I feel the American worker has been sacrificed to the capitalist idols in the ancient Mayan fashion. - Sue Lamb, NYT reader

nymole October 4, 2009 - 6:12am

Only one policy.

these "leaks" are propaganda disinformation posing as "intelligence" giving false impression and spreading confusion to the uninformed. Fall for that if you must, the US has done that before, in a place called Iraq, also having lots of OIL. Everything is done to support US Policy, even baldly lying to the world.

Arnie October 4, 2009 - 6:58am

It seems a "confidential" "unconfirmed" report is "leaked" by "unnamed" sources "alleging" "knowledge of knowhow" for "construction" of a weapon that has been independently developed by all nuclear weapons possessing countries.

What the NYT (and the Washington Post) need is a robot that can wave its arms and announce "Warning! Warning! unverified writing ahead". See for yourself:

Al Jazeera story here

count the unnamed and unverified and probable provenance of information, confirmed and unconfirmed. This beggars fiction.

Arnie October 4, 2009 - 3:18am

BBC - The head of the UN nuclear watchdog says inspectors will visit an Iranian uranium enrichment plant revealed recently by Tehran, on 25 October.

Mohamed ElBaradei said after meeting Iranian nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi that he hoped Iran would be "as transparent as possible" with monitors.

The US had urged Iran to give the IAEA "unfettered access" to the site, near the city of Qom, within two weeks.

more at the link. How the piece incorporates and interprets the Sanger article makes interesting reading. hat the US will do about the "3 weeks, not 2 weeks" date ?


I feel the American worker has been sacrificed to the capitalist idols in the ancient Mayan fashion. - Sue Lamb, NYT reader

nymole October 4, 2009 - 7:05am

...that's worth a listen. I also agree with their conclusion; we'll get stupid again and attack in '10.

http://www.linktv.org/video/4430/israel-vs-iran-the-writing-is-on-the-wall

Celsius 233 October 4, 2009 - 9:18pm

From The Sunday Times October 4, 2009

Israel names Russians helping Iran build nuclear bomb

Uzi Mahanimi in Tel Aviv, Mark Franchetti and Jon Swain

Israel's prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has handed the Kremlin a list of Russian scientists believed by the Israelis to be helping Iran to develop a nuclear warhead. He is said to have delivered the list during a mysterious visit to Moscow.

Netanyahu flew to the Russian capital with Uzi Arad, his national security adviser, last month in a private jet.

His office claimed he was in Israel, visiting a secret military establishment at the time. It later emerged that he was holding talks with Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, and President Dmitry Medvedev.

“We have heard that Netanyahu came with a list and concrete evidence showing that Russians are helping the Iranians to develop a bomb,” said a source close to the Russian defence minister last week.

“That is why it was kept secret. The point is not to embarrass Moscow, rather to spur it into action.”

Israeli sources said it was a short, tense meeting at which Netanyahu named the Russian experts said to be assisting Iran in its nuclear programme.

In western capitals the latest claims were treated with caution. American and British officials argued that the involvement of freelance Russian scientists belonged to the past.

American officials said concern about Russian experts acting without official approval, had been raised by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in a report more than a year ago.

“There has been Russian help. It is not the government, it is individuals, at least one helping Iran on weaponisation activities and it is worrisome,” said David Albright, a former weapons inspector who is president of the Institute for Science and International Security.

However, Israeli officials insist that any Russian scientists working in Iran could do so only with official approval.

Robert Einhorn, the special adviser for non-proliferation and arms control to Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, is understood to believe that Russian companies have also supplied material that has been used by Iran in the production of ballistic missiles.

The disclosures came as Iran agreed at talks in Geneva to submit to IAEA inspections of its newly disclosed enrichment plant, which is being built under a mountain on a military base at Qom. Iran revealed the plant to the IAEA to pre-empt being caught out by an imminent announcement from western governments, which had discovered its existence.

The West says the plant is tailor-made for a secret weapons programme and proves Iran’s claim that its nuclear programme is intended only for peaceful purposes is a lie. The plant is designed to hold 3,000 centrifuges — enough to produce the material needed for one bomb a year.

Iran’s conduct over the next few weeks will determine whether the West continues its new dialogue or is compelled to increase pressure with tougher United Nations and other sanctions.

Ephraim Sneh, a former Israeli deputy defence minister, warned that time was running out for action to stop the programme. “If no crippling sanctions are introduced by Christmas, Israel will strike,” he said. “If we are left alone, we will act alone.”

more

Tina October 5, 2009 - 3:58am

The US National Security Adviser on Sunday refuted a newly uncovered IAEA report that suggests Iran has the information needed to build a nuclear bomb.

By Mark Sappenfield | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
from the October 4, 2009 edition

A senior US security official Sunday disagreed with the assessment that Iran now knows how to make a nuclear bomb.

According to the Sunday New York Times, a secret International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report says that Iran has "sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable" atom bomb.

US National Security Adviser James Jones, however, disputed the IAEA's findings. Asked on CNN's "State of the Union" if Iran has the data to make a nuclear bomb, he said: "No, we stand by the reports that we've put out."

Two years ago, the US released a report suggesting that Iran has stopped work on its nuclear-weapons program in 2003. The Times emphasizes that other countries, including Britain and France, have begun to have doubts about this conclusion.

The authors of the so-called "secret annex" of the IAEA report acknowledge that their findings are not definitive and that further investigation is necessary.

But the report embodies a growing split within the nuclear agency on how hard to push Iran, The Times suggests.

Mohammed ElBaradei, head of the IAEA, has sought to emphasize progress in talks with Iran about its nuclear program.

In a visit to Tehran, he said: "I see that we are shifting gears from confrontation into transparency and cooperation."

In recent days, Iran has agreed to let IAEA inspectors visit its previously secret site near Qom on Oct. 25. It has also said that it is open to the idea of allowing Russia to enrich a stockpile of uranium that, international inspectors fear, could otherwise secretly be repurposed for weapons. In addition, Iran has agreed to further talks this month.

Mr. Jones agreed that Iran has taken positive steps. "What's happened with regard to Iran in the last couple of weeks has been very significant," Jones said.

more

Tina October 5, 2009 - 5:07am

Iran to Install New Generation Centrifuges
2009-10-05 23:18:31 Xinhua Web Editor: Zhang Zhang

Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Chief Ali Akbar Salehi said Iran is intending to install a new generation of centrifuges at its new nuclear enrichment site, the local satellite Press TV reported on Monday.

In an interview with the channel on Sunday, Salehi introduced Tehran's plans for the newly disclosed nuclear fuel enrichment site situated near the northwestern holy city of Qom, the report said.

Salehi expressed hope that his organization would be able to install a new generation of centrifuges in the new site, without elaborating the specifications and types of the new generation of centrifuges.

"During the past few months, we have also focused most of our efforts on developing new high-efficiency machinery that can be manufactured at home without the use of any imported parts. We hope to install the new centrifuges at the site," Salehi said.

Describing Iran's "peaceful" nuclear work as a necessity, he said it is a "launch pad" for future progress in the field of energy production, and that "constructing nuclear plants is the first step towards building fusion plants which will emerge in the future."

"If we do not enter the domain today we will not be able to take a leap and cross over to the field of fusion plants, which will be the technology in the next 40 to 50 years. We have to reach that stage gradually," he was quoted by Press TV as saying.

Last month, Iran confirmed that it is building a new nuclear fuel enrichment plant near the religious city of Qom.

Leaders of the United States, France and Britain have condemned Iran's alleged deception to the international community involving covert activities in the new underground nuclear site.

Tina October 6, 2009 - 3:40am

...imagine the excrement/impeller engagement velocity if it had come out that they were installing (or worse were operating) a couple of thousand IR-3 / IR-4 centrifuges at a covert, unsafeguarded facility? Oy, and oy again.

Now, let's consider for a second what it might mean if this disclosure were something that was a) indigenously generated and b) driven by internal dynamics. Is this a sign that they've decided more or less what level of latent capability they want? Demonstrate that they could have a covert cascade capable of producing sufficient bomb-making material (really, if I was going to hide one of these puppies it wouldn't be under a mountain - I'd put it under a parking garage somewhere), with careful maintenance of ambiguity around their weaponization knowledge? Interesting idea, but not sure how likely it is.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave October 6, 2009 - 6:42am

I say the Qom site right now is nothing more than a large hole in the mountain, nothing else :D I am really surprised no one has jumped on this story

Tina October 6, 2009 - 6:59am

...and the footings done for a bunch of stuff, but that there's no actual centrifuges in there. I would speculate that the three sub-facilities may mean that they're intending to run a number of models, as at the PFEP.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave October 6, 2009 - 8:11am

~ sorry dave

IAEA found nothing serious at Iran site: ElBaradei
Thu Nov 5, 2009 12:18pm EST

VIENNA (Reuters) - U.N. inspectors found "nothing to be worried about" in a first look at a previously secret uranium enrichment site in Iran last month, the International Atomic Energy chief said in remarks published Thursday.

Mohamed ElBaradei also told the New York Times that he was examining possible compromises to unblock a draft nuclear cooperation deal between Iran and three major powers that has foundered over Iranian objections.

The nuclear site, which Iran revealed in September three years after diplomats said Western spies first detected it, added to Western fears of covert Iranian efforts to develop atom bombs. Iran says it is enriching uranium only for electricity.

ElBaradei was quoted in a New York Times interview as saying his inspectors' initial findings at the fortified site beneath a desert mountain near the Shi'ite holy city of Qom were "nothing to be worried about."

"The idea was to use it as a bunker under the mountain to protect things," ElBaradei, alluding to Tehran's references to the site as a fallback for its nuclear program in case its larger Natanz enrichment plant were bombed by a foe like Israel.

"It's a hole in a mountain," he said.

The IAEA has declined to comment on whether the inspectors came across anything surprising or were able to obtain all the documentation and on-site access they had wanted at the remote spot about 160 km (100 miles) south of Tehran.

Details are expected to be included in the next IAEA report on Iran's disputed nuclear activity due in mid-November.

MORE

Tina November 5, 2009 - 2:03pm

...that there were footings poured, but no centrifuges.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave November 5, 2009 - 3:51pm

lol I couldn't resist, what are the odds he would say hole in a mountain? :D

Tina November 6, 2009 - 2:36am

...least as I see it. The guy's got to be viewed as a fair broker to maintain access - he's got wingnuts on one side wanting to go directly to kinetics and wingnuts on the other side trying to show how tough they are by trying to revise the deal they green lighted ever downwards. Means the descriptors are going to try to de-escalate - once they do the technical assessment it'll be pretty obvious what said hole was for, but I'm sure there'll be enough ambiguity for the commentariat to see whatever they want to. Fresh chum to draw innocent electrons to the slaughter.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

JustPlainDave November 6, 2009 - 8:06am

Wednesday Oct. 7, 2009 19:08 EDT
The still-missing central fact in the Iran drama ~ Glenn Greenwald
(updated below)

Ever since Iran reported the existence of its Qom enrichment facility to the IAEA, one central assertion has been repeated as fact over and over by the American media to make the story as incriminating as possible: namely, that Iran only disclosed this because they discovered they had been "caught," i.e., they found out that the West knew of this facility and they thus had no choice but to disclose it. That assertion has been fundamental to the entire Iran drama. After all, if Iran voluntarily notified the IAEA of the Qom facility before it was even operational and thus agreed to have the facility inspected, it's impossible to maintain the melodramatic storyline that Iran was planning something deeply nefarious here and got "caught red-handed." The assertion that Iran was forced into disclosure is vital to the entire plot, and it's been constantly repeated as fact.

But ever since this episode began, I've read countless accounts from numerous sources and never once saw a single piece of evidence to support this claim -- and I've been actively looking for it and asking if anyone has seen such evidence. Today in Time Magazine, Bobby Ghosh writes of an exclusive interview he conducted with CIA Director Leon Panetta about Qom, in which Panetta claims the CIA knew of the facility for three years...

more

Tina October 8, 2009 - 5:29am

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