Have You Looked At Long Term Chart Lately?


All I can say to this headline:

Stocks Gain as Global Equities Complete Best Month Since 2003

Is the following comment: have you looked at a long-term chart lately? The technical position of the market looks terrible, this slight rally notwithstanding. I mean what part of cut-in-half do you not understand? You loose fifty percent or more, but the market rallies twenty percent? You're still down a boatload!

Mind you, I'm not a perma-bear, not by a long shot. But with news like this, "Record Drop in January Index of Home Prices," I don't see any real economic upside. We've got employment numbers coming up soon, too, right? Now that'll be fun. But I don't see a catalyst for real economic growth. And therein lies the problem. Washington is desperately trying to kick start an economic engine that's broken, in need of an overhaul. And yet they think their little tune up did the trick? Please. This thing still has legs and much more time to play out.


Sean Paul Kelley March 31, 2009 - 5:26pm

Bear market rallies are usually quick and violent, and this one is no different. We were very oversold and it became to easy to make money on the short side. I think this rally has some more to go ( perhaps another 10-15%). After that first quarter GDP should come in worse than the 4th quarters, negative 7% plus. First quarter earnings should be lousy, and we are coming into the worst part of the year from a seasonal standpoint. This year should be a sell in May and go away.

Better investing days are ahead.

brooklyn91941 March 31, 2009 - 5:55pm

I miss the guys at the office talking about how grim the bear market of 73-74 was. I thrived on that talk from them. When talked about having no where to hide. Made me realize I wasn't quite the twenty-something master of the universe I thought I was, you know?

“Is not our first thought to go on the road? The road is our source, our vault of treasures, our wealth. Only on the road does the ‘traveller’ feel like himself, at home.”
Ryszard Kapuscinski

Sean Paul Kelley March 31, 2009 - 6:05pm

After that first quarter GDP should come in worse than the 4th quarters, negative 7% plus

Why?


--Sell Alaska to China!

Singular April 3, 2009 - 11:52am

Full of unaccountable venom for Roubini today, Paul Farrel just about spit his false teeth shouting on Market Watch that now is the bottom.

The comments he got were mostly favorable too...whole lotta folks really hope you can sit on your ass and make money out of vapor and other people's hope.

Freedom is not more important than fairness, just easier to sell and a lot easier to fake.

greensmile March 31, 2009 - 6:17pm

are people factoring in the bank books coming "clean" in the next few days? Big deal it seems - tho the secret funnels are going at full tilt right now anyway...
--
Hongpong.com

HongPong March 31, 2009 - 10:09pm

Banks are very profitable at the moment because the mortgage business is doing better than ever. They just need to hide the big hole in their backyard with accounting tricks and lying a little bit longer to survive.


--Sell Alaska to China!

Singular April 3, 2009 - 11:49am

"I don't see any real economic upside."

The problem is how you see creative destruction(following Schumpeter) when everything is destroyed.

It may all come down to lemonade stands.

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

mauberly March 31, 2009 - 11:23pm

the problem is that political reform and economic reform don't go hand in hand; the Obama administration, for example, has promised that economic gains will be shared broadly but I doubt it since the corporations and the military industrial complex use the "fear of poverty" to influence the moral choices that their workers make.

mrmx April 1, 2009 - 10:33am

"military industrial complex" years ago. Lemonade stands it will be.

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

mauberly April 2, 2009 - 10:57pm

That's 3/4 million people added to the government dole.

Some won't pay their bills, will quit eating out, which hurts someones else's business...

I did inhale.

Don April 2, 2009 - 9:01am
Don April 2, 2009 - 9:30am

but helpful. tx

dk April 2, 2009 - 12:13pm

The business cycle trough occurred in March in the USA.


--Sell Alaska to China!

Singular April 3, 2009 - 11:43am

new lows before this economic crisis is over?

“Is not our first thought to go on the road? The road is our source, our vault of treasures, our wealth. Only on the road does the ‘traveller’ feel like himself, at home.”
Ryszard Kapuscinski

Sean Paul Kelley April 4, 2009 - 9:59am

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