598,000 More Jobless In America, Unemployment Hits 7.6%


Ouch!

The country moved into its second year of uninterrupted job losses last month, with companies shedding another 598,000 jobs and the unemployment rate moving up to 7.6 percent, the Labor Department reported on Friday.

Everything I have so far read or heard about the Obama Stimulus plan just doesn't cut it. No, he's not responsible for these numbers, but at some point down the road he will be. Especially if they worsen.

Here's where we stand today:

For the last several months, analysts said, the United States has increasingly been trapped in a vicious circle of slumping consumer demand, falling business investment, mounting losses in the banking system, and rising unemployment, which was 7.2 percent in December.

And what have our leaders been doing about it? Well, Krugman nails it here, if you ask me:

A not-so-funny thing happened on the way to economic recovery. Over the last two weeks, what should have been a deadly serious debate about how to save an economy in desperate straits turned, instead, into hackneyed political theater, with Republicans spouting all the old clichés about wasteful government spending and the wonders of tax cuts.

It’s as if the dismal economic failure of the last eight years never happened — yet Democrats have, incredibly, been on the defensive. Even if a major stimulus bill does pass the Senate, there’s a real risk that important parts of the original plan, especially aid to state and local governments, will have been emasculated.

Bottom line: unity porn ain't going to cut it. It's time for a cramdown: let's start with the Republicans. Sorry, I just can't fall into line and 'hope' that Obama will do the right thing. We need actions. And all we've gotten so far are a bunch of rookie moves and mistakes.

Krugman's prescription for Obama is spot on, as well:

It’s time for Mr. Obama to go on the offensive. Above all, he must not shy away from pointing out that those who stand in the way of his plan, in the name of a discredited economic philosophy, are putting the nation’s future at risk. The American economy is on the edge of catastrophe, and much of the Republican Party is trying to push it over that edge.

I ain't holding my breath.


Sean Paul Kelley February 6, 2009 - 9:18am
( categories: Global Financial Crisis )

Would be if there was a rule that for every 100,000 jobs lost one Congressman is fired. It could be chosen randomly. Or it could be the Rep. of the region that lost the most jobs.

creativelcro February 6, 2009 - 10:47am

Count me among those who think that the president made a big mistake in his initial approach, that his attempts to transcend partisanship ended up empowering politicians who take their marching orders from Rush Limbaugh.

Krugman

Some of those folks with whom Krugman agrees are right here on The Agonist.

WTF is taking Obama so long to figure out the obvious? He is looking like a rookie wimp.

tjfxh February 6, 2009 - 11:33am

fastest that a bill this size has ever gotten through congress.

We are talking $900 billion in basically two weeks. I mean these people have not even moved into their offices. It is nothing short of amazing. Cloture is on Sunday, which basically means put up or shut up. Repubs have indicated there is not going to be a filibuster, and then the vote and it goes through.

Scotjen61 February 6, 2009 - 12:28pm

“Is not our first thought to go on the road? The road is our source, our vault of treasures, our wealth. Only on the road does the ‘traveller’ feel like himself, at home.”
Ryszard Kapuscinski

Sean Paul Kelley February 6, 2009 - 1:01pm

And the fire fighters throw a heavy rope at you, hitting you hard on the face, what do you do? Do you bitch about their imperfect rescue attempt? Dunno. Nobody knows right now. Everybody just bitches, totally understandable. :)

creativelcro February 6, 2009 - 1:33pm

is that the firefighters throw the rope to the floor below yours, expecting that it's good enough to help you. And yes, you bitch at them because they don't rescue you but leave you to the flames.

That's the difference in perspectives here--rather than being an imperfect rescue, it's simply not a rescue at all.

Bolo February 6, 2009 - 7:05pm

It's A "D", Not An "R" Folks

His analysis distinguishes a recession economy from a depression economy, differentiating the business cycle (recession) from credit excess (depression). Nothing new here economically, but he expresses the issues quite clearly, if you aren't up on it. He also sets forth the implications.

His solution is a consumption tax, and it may be that we hear this being debated before very long as a Republican solution replacing voodoo economics.

tjfxh February 6, 2009 - 11:46am

NOT bailing out industries such as the automobile companies and insolvent banks, much like what Ron Paul advocated for and for which I got verbally assaulted a few days ago.

Stimulus can work but it had best be applied with care and foresight. Why build new roads if the fuel to power cars will not be there or will be so expensive we can't afford to buy it?

In that case we need to be thinking of light rail and mass transit.

Why make more cars when the industry is overproducing cars by 3,000,000 units a year as is?

And for damn sure, why keep giving money to companies that in the midst of losing their asses insist on rewarding upper management with huge bonuses on taxpayer expense?

We need desperately to scale back military spending, the war on drugs, etc. That will mean job losses--temporary hardship on a level none of us have seen, but also the possibility that we can retool and survive.

Trying to keep the dinosaur alive will kill all of us.

I did inhale.

Don February 6, 2009 - 5:16pm

Here's a quote from the article you linked:

"These distortions cannot happen without active government involvement. Without allowing willfully false statements on 1003s (mortgage documents) you cannot grant $500,000 loans to people who make $8/hour. It simply can't happen, because the inherent risk of default on those loans is so high that absent fraud nobody in their right mind will fund those loans and honest regulators will step in and stop the stupidity before it can get out of hand."

This is pure dogma and intellectual dishonesty, unless by "government involvement", you mean simply the basic rule of law necessary to have a market - then, yes, market abuses can only happen with government involvement because a market (beyond a very primitive level) can only happen with government involvement, but that's not what he's trying to say, and what he is trying to say is false. The government did not require lenders to give out mortgages to those who could not afford them. The government did not require fraud or lack of due diligence, nor are those things "impossible without government involvement" as history shows very clearly. Why should anyone take this clown seriously?

mbento February 6, 2009 - 6:44pm

Greenspan, in order to save bush from the embarrassment of a recession in the first year of his term did juice the market and did encourage lending to unqualified borrowers with the belief they'd be able to pay simply because housing would continue to gain in value.

It did, until it didn't.

I did inhale.

Don February 6, 2009 - 9:15pm

If he had said that Greenspan's loose monetary policy and advocacy of "innovative" home financing had been contributing factors to the mess, I would have had no objection. What he said is that credit crises can only occur with active government involvement. That is clearly false historically, and in the present case, the government's sins were chiefly those of omission cheered on by those, like him, who see government at the root of all economic ills, facts be damned.

mbento February 7, 2009 - 3:54am

When millions are unemployed.

As clever as tax cuts in the stimulus package. Tax cuts presuppose profits, profits are looking bad and the outlook is worse.

Synoia February 7, 2009 - 12:01am

luxury items. And raising taxes in general is not something you want to do in a recession. We've got no good options now, only bad and less bad.

“Is not our first thought to go on the road? The road is our source, our vault of treasures, our wealth. Only on the road does the ‘traveller’ feel like himself, at home.”
Ryszard Kapuscinski

Sean Paul Kelley February 7, 2009 - 12:22am

http://www.newsweek.com/id/183303

Yes, We Can

The GOP says the stimulus can't create jobs. They're wrong.

There are three options government can pursue when the economy goes south. First, the Fed can cut interest rates, buy up assets, and extend credit, all of which the central bank has already done. Second, Congress can cut taxes on businesses and consumers in the hope they will spend more. The first effort—last year's tax rebates—didn't have the intended effect since consumers used much of the windfall to pay down debt or save. The substantial tax cuts that will be part of the Obama stimulus package would likely have a similarly muted effect. Businesses and consumers, facing a tough credit environment and needing to repair their balance sheets, will likely use proceeds from the tax cuts to tide themselves over. The third option is for the government to directly purchase goods and services, to substitute the demand that consumers and businesses aren't providing.

The Washington remnant of the Republican Party—40 senators and 178 representatives—is all for Options 1 and 2, cheap money and tax cuts. But they're having great difficulty with Option 3. They have forgotten Richard Nixon's famous line that "we're all Keynesians now." To them, spending government funds to goose the economy is unacceptable, not just because of the possibility of poor execution —i.e., pork. No, many are rejecting it as a matter of principle. Even though several Republican governors are pleading for assistance in the form of federal spending, Washington Republicans are saying no.

AMC February 6, 2009 - 1:55pm

eom

This is all about political posturing.

But in the view of many Obama gave up too much for too little. As Krugman says in his column today, cited by SPK above, this bill risks being too little, too late to avoid being caught in a deflationary spiral. But it's better than the GOP non-alternative, which would do essentially nothing.

tjfxh February 6, 2009 - 2:02pm

...including Mr Krugman, is that this stimulus plan is as much a crap shoot as doing nothing is.

Nobody - and I mean nobody - has anything other than theory to offer as this is a brand new, infinitely complex, and deadly economic turn that is unprecedented.

In fact, I would argue that without a truly international intervention of unimaginable scope, this puppy is far too along for any individual, nation, or national economy to deal with alone. Americans bickering with Americans is pointless - they should be bickering about this kind of thing with the world, which, by the way, is increasingly unimpressed with the Americans unilatteral actions to this point.

Friedman should take Krugman to lunch...its a Flat Earth, remember?

AetiusRomulous February 6, 2009 - 2:51pm

is textbook. The results of stimulus depending on the scope of the bill is utterly measurable. Geithner has dealt with economic collapses since the mid 1990's - Russia, Asia, Brazil, Mexico.

Our efforts have kept the dollar on a rising trend which helps, that means a level of confidence continues. Our ability to move quickly is still refreshing, and there have been market upside surprises for the first time in months. Upside surprises in retail and in the service sector, and a much higher productivity number than expected. Market has tested bottoms three times now and still holds above 8000, all good signs.

I am still on record that the meme next year at this time will be, Did We Stimulate the Economy too Much??

Scotjen61 February 6, 2009 - 4:38pm

I simply disagree with the text book. The "Bubbles" of the 90's were nothing like this. For the fun and challenge of it, I'll go on record with " Shit, that didn't work".

Geithner was the man for the job tho. When the tax thingy came up I was thankful nobody gave a crap when Einstein wanted in. Morons.

AetiusRomulous February 6, 2009 - 6:23pm

http://www.speaker.gov/img/jobsrecessions.jpg

That curve has not begun to turn. And employment is a lagging indicator.

Synoia February 7, 2009 - 12:04am

It takes more than Obama saying the Republicans are the problem, you have to get ordinary people to stop listening to Rush and see that Republicans are the problem and push their Senators.

The Republican Congress would rather the country go up in smoke than that a Democratic President would be able to save it.

And for whatever reason, the MSM seem to get more bang for the buck from the Republican side like McCain. It is a real tragedy at this point that Ted Kennedy is incapacited. Obama cannot do it alone.
What's wrong with Bill Clinton and Al Gore pitching in to help on this one?

Obama calls delay on stimulus bill inexcusable

NYT -...

Republican efforts to drastically alter the package, by eliminating huge blocks of spending in place of expanded tax cuts, continued Thursday morning as Senator McCain proposed yet another substitute bill, including a plan to slash corporate and personal income taxes. Democrats defeated his proposal and others.

“Despite the efforts of the president, Senator Reid and all of us to reach out, we’re getting rebuffed,” Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, the No. 3 Democrat, said at a news conference with other leaders. “Has bipartisanship been a failure? Well, so far it’s not working. But it takes two to tango, and the Republicans aren’t dancing.”


I feel the American worker has been sacrificed to the capitalist idols in the ancient Mayan fashion. - Sue Lamb, NYT reader

nymole February 6, 2009 - 5:37pm

is really bull shit.

The man is president of the whole United States, not just the blue parts and he is having to make compromises to get a bill passed. It took decades of graft, corruption, and a general give me everything in exchange for nothing attitude on the part of the American people to arrive where we now are.

Do you want two years of recession or ten years of hell F William Engdahl asks.

I did inhale.

Don February 6, 2009 - 5:57pm

I agree.

creativelcro February 6, 2009 - 6:00pm

From what I can tell, there'll be 51 Republicans to 49 Democrats (or visa-versa) that qualify.

Tom Daschle didn't get disqualified for being a liberal--he got disqualified for being a tax cheat.

Bill Richardson (who I admire and supported) also is facing potential ethics violations.

Pelosi, Reid?

We all know what bush and Cheney were.

Bankers, Wall Street professionals, people in government from the highest offices to local county commissioners have stolen from and violated the people they serve for personal gain.

Politicians don't get tough with others for fear of exposing their own sins.

The drought oustside my door looks like paradise when compared to the landscape in our nation's capitol.

Obama may be the brightest spot of the bunch.

I did inhale.

Don February 6, 2009 - 6:30pm

By "tougher" I meant that he needs to act like a President in the middle of an emergency. Figure out what needs to be done, then use the bully pulpit to sell the idea to the citizenry. Not enough of that has been done so far, and it's weakened him.

Of course, he may be doing just what's expected of him by his real constituency, but it's going to leave the country in really sad shape.

Putting people in jail would be a great parallel step.


They sicken of the calm, who knew the storm.

Raja February 6, 2009 - 6:49pm

WTF? When have tax cuts ever helped anything, or anyone besides the people who don't need them? I don't need a fucking $40/mo tax cut.

Not the kind of change I voted for, Hopey. You want a stimulus, an espresso high colonic for the economy? Hike taxes, esp. on the rich and corporations. Fix infrastructure. Stop firehosing money to insolvent banks and nationalize them. C and BAC are insolvent, failed banks. Kill them off and fund new ones, then sell those.

And start putting people on trial for fraud and looting. Trillions have been looted from the country by the pigmen, enabled by their buddies like Paulson and Geithner and the loathsome Phil Gramm.

forty2 February 6, 2009 - 8:19pm

Robini or Krugman on his staff of advisors? Instead what you get are senators playing pork barrel politics which accounts for the buckshot approach which makes this stimulus legislation extremely wasteful of money that taxpayers are on the hook for.

I recently watched a PBS video that illustrates what went wrong with International markets. It's a 2-hour documentary...well-worth watching, called, The Ascent of Money!

Politicians and their leaders deserted world populations--most deserve being jailed for deregulating markets.

Another economist, Peter Schiff: Stimulus Bill Will Lead to "Unmitigated Disaster"

Click to watch the Schiff interview on the left.

canuck February 7, 2009 - 5:50pm

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