I heard today on NPR that the overland routes had been damaged and a major bridge taken out.

...a pipeline, overland to the sea. Oil is the Earth's "spice"; the oil must flow.

2/4/2009 7:49 AM ET

(RTTNews) - The government of Kyrgyzstan submitted to the parliament Wednesday a draft bill, which will annul an agreement that had established U.S. military base in that Central Asian country.

It came a day after the country's President Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced the decision after talks with his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, in Moscow.

The draft bill requires U.S. military personnel to close operations and leave the air base within six months after the final decision is made.

If the legislation is approved by the country's parliament, dominated by the pro-presidential Ak Zhol party, it could have f

http://agonist.org/20090203/kyrgyzstan_bishkek_to_close_key_u_s_air_base

...primarily in terms of moving people for ISAF and refueling (both in terms of setting down C-17s [and I would presume that there's at least some transshipping to C-130s] and basing of KC-135s). By definition, given that it's an AFB, it's not anywhere near as important as a terrestrial route for resupply. Is it important as a political datapoint? Sure. Is this going to be a pain in the ass (presuming of course it actually comes off in the event)? Sure. Will it, by itself, have a huge, determinative impact on resupply? Not so sure on that one. Very worrying if a trendline, and certainly appears to be something that took the USAF by surprise (there were RFPs let in October for about $25 million in ramp improvements), but wait and see might be a good policy.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

Remember, 95% of military resupply is done via shipping and then overland travel. You just can't fly enough in.

If you 'just can't fly enough in', why do you think loosing an airport

The problem is more with loosing a big and safe airport near he conflict zone, and has to do with projecting air power, and nothing to do with supply (except you'll need a lot more plane fuel because you'll be flying missions from places like Diego Garcia)

bbc

Manas is the only US air base in Central Asia and is a vital transit point

Kyrgyzstan's parliament has delayed a vote on whether to close a key US air base that supports US and Nato operations in Afghanistan.

Parliament had been due to start debating the closure of the Manas base, but officials announced the vote would be put off until later in the month.

President Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced the closure plan on a visit to Moscow, where he was promised Russian aid.

US officials say negotiations over the lease of the base will continue.

It was not immediately clear why the vote was put on hold.

Earlier, the Kyrgyz government had submitted a decree to parliament for the closure of the base.

President Bakiyev had said his decision came after failed attempts to secure further financial assistance from the Americans.

A Kyrgyz government spokesman said the move was prompted by popular disapproval of the base.

But analysts suspect that Russia played a hand in influencing his decision after pledging $2bn (£1.4bn) in aid, the BBC's Central Asia correspondent Rayhan Demytrie reports.

Diplomatic victory

Manas is the only US base in Central Asia and is a vital transit point for Nato and US operations in Afghanistan.

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from Scott Horton, who has followed the events since the US first put the base leasing together, then cut other deals with the then president Askar Akeyev and family for lucrative aviation fuel supplying contracts. There also was the issue of the killing of a Kyrgyz national at Manas by a US serviceman that led to much acrimony and anti-US feelings as well.

The Mess at Manas
ust as the Obama Administration prepared to beef up the American presence in Afghanistan as evidence of its commitment to fighting Al Qaeda, bad news arrived from two fronts. Afghan insurgents destroyed a bridge in the Jalalabad region that is a vital link on the land supply route used by the United States and its NATO allies, and at the same time, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced his government’s decision to shut down Ganci (or Manas) Air Force Base, located just outside the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek, which has been one of the principal resupply corridors for U.S. forces operating in Afghanistan.

The New York Times carried a good report on the struggle over the Ganci base this morning. The Times report puts the matter in the context of a broader struggle between the United States and Russia. There is no doubt that Russia is less than enthusiastic over the establishment of a sustained military presence by the United States on the territory of the former Soviet Union.
...
But this is far from the whole story. In fact at the time the Kyrgyz agreed to let the United States open the base, the two nations enjoyed excellent relations and the Kyrgyz public was arguably the warmest and most pro-American of the region. That changed rather dramatically, and the change did not result as much from Russian propaganda as it did from American ineptitude and misconduct. For a decade, American advisors and aid contractors had lectured the Kyrgyz on the need for budgetary transparency and anti-corruption measures. Yet when the United States Government first arrived in country with a serious contract to negotiate—for the creation of the air base—it wound up concluding an under-the-table deal with the president’s family under which most of the financial benefit from the airbase wound up parked in offshore bank accounts. That deal was cut by Donald Rumsfeld’s Pentagon with Rumsfeld’s direct involvement. Had a private U.S. company cut such a deal it would probably have found its officers on the other end of an indictment under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act brought by a U.S. attorney. However, following an FBI investigation that confirmed these depressing facts, the Bush Administration concluded that in this as in other areas, it would hold itself immune from the criminal law standards it applied to ordinary citizens.
...
A prominent Bishkek lawyer discussing the dealings over the base with me pronounced a judgment that I heard consistently: “We finally got an up-close look at your government. You’re a bunch of hypocrites, no less corrupt than our own government–just a lot bigger.”
...
Off to a bad start, things quickly got even worse. In 2006 U.S. serviceman Zachary Hatfield shot and killed Aleksandr Ivanov, a truck driver employed by the base’s aviation fuel contractor. The incident was catastrophically mishandled by U.S. military and diplomatic personnel. U.S. spokesmen issued a statement claiming that Ivanov had physically threatened Hatfield with a knife, and that Hatfield shot him in self defense. While making vague and unconvincing statements of “regret” about the “incident,” the soldier was whisked away back to the United States.
...
The American management of the incident was totally bungled, leaving the local population with the idea that the Americans on the base were arrogant and not accountable to the law. The public’s view of Americans underwent a radical and sudden transformation. A nation once seen as generous benefactors now were seen as arrogant bullies.

“This base is doomed,” I was told repeatedly. It is only a matter of time before public opinion forces its closing. The question at this point is whether America will learn any lessons from this experience.

http://www.harpers.org/archive/2009/02/hbc-90004342

And, the NYT story on the jet fuel contracts (from 2005:

Pentagon's Fuel Deal Is Lesson in Risks of Graft-Prone Regions

WASHINGTON, Nov. 14 - Soon after the American invasion of Afghanistan in late 2001, the Pentagon opened an air base in neighboring Kyrgyzstan and made a deal to get jet fuel from the only two suppliers in the country. The companies just happened to be linked to relatives of the country's president.

Now the two businesses are under scrutiny by Kyrgyz prosecutors and F.B.I. agents who are looking into whether the president at the time, Askar Akayev, and his family pocketed hundreds of millions of dollars, partly from Pentagon fuel contracts, before he was ousted this year.

The family's involvement at the base, a critical site for refueling Air Force aircraft flying over Afghanistan, is a story of everyday cronyism in an impoverished country where the coming of the Americans was seen as a financial windfall for the well connected.

But the case also illustrates the risks of alliances with nations that are unstable and rife with corruption. Mr. Akayev's abrupt departure in March has put the Pentagon in an awkward bind. It needs continued access to the base, but the $207 million spent on fuel contracts has created resentment among the country's new leaders, some of whom contend that the United States knew where the proceeds were going.
(more...)

http://tinyurl.com/agjcbg

By Olga Dzyubenko

BISHKEK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Kyrgyzstan said on Friday its decision to shut a U.S. air base was final, dealing a blow to Washington's efforts to retain what has been a major staging post for U.S. forces fighting in Afghanistan.

On Thursday, the United States said it was still in talks with Kyrgyzstan about keeping the Manas base in the mainly Muslim, impoverished former Soviet republic and traditional Russian ally.

"The decision has been made," said Kyrgyz government spokesman Aibek Sultangaziyev. "The U.S. embassy and the (Kyrgyz) Foreign Ministry are exchanging opinions on this, but there are no discussions on keeping the base."

Kyrgyzstan's stance has set a tough challenge for new U.S. President Barack Obama, who plans to send additional troops to Afghanistan to try and boost NATO efforts to defeat Taliban and al Qaeda insurgents.

The United States, also seeking to reinforce supply routes to Afghanistan that bypass Pakistan where convoys face security risks, says it is still hopeful the base can be retained. "We're still very much engaged," said Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman.

Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced the closure of the base earlier this week after securing more than $2 billion in financial aid and credit from Russia during talks in Moscow.

RUSSIAN POSITION

Russia, irked by the U.S. military presence in Kyrgyzstan which it regards as part of its strategic sphere of interest, has long exerted pressure on the small, landlocked and mountainous Central Asian country to evict the U.S. forces.

NATO says it is concerned about Russia's possible involvement in the Kyrgyz decision. Moscow, which operates its own military base in Kyrgyzstan, has strongly denied any link between its aid package and the move to shut Manas.

Asked if Washington had made any additional offers over the base, Kyrgyz Prime Minister Igor Chudinov said: "We have not received any proposals." He says Kyrgyzstan wants to shut the base because it disagrees with U.S. methods in Afghanistan.

The Kyrgyz government needs parliamentary approval to proceed with the closure, but this is seen as a formality as the chamber is controlled by a pro-presidential party. A simple majority of votes is needed.

Officials have said parliament will vote next week.

The Russian aid package, due to be approved by parliament on Friday, includes a $1.7 billion discounted loan to help Kyrgyzstan build a hydroelectric power plant.

A Western diplomatic source said on Thursday the United States was close to a deal with Kyrgyzstan's neighbour Uzbekistan that would allow Washington to open a new supply route for its troops in Afghanistan.

Russia, while blowing cold on the U.S. military presence in Central Asia, has politically backed the NATO effort in Afghanistan. Moscow says it will be flexible to U.S. requests for supplies to be allowed to cross its territory.

U.S. eyes Uzbekistan for military alliance

The United States is considering resuming military cooperation with authoritarian Uzbekistan as a part of backup planning for the potential loss of a nearby air hub for troops and supplies in the widening Afghanistan war, U.S. officials said Thursday.

Defense officials say they are examining options for supply routes through a semicircle of nations from Central Asia to the Persian Gulf that could be used in place of the strategic air base in the former Soviet republic of Kyrgyzstan.

Uzbekistan, a hard-line former Soviet satellite with rigid economic controls, is a surprise contender because diplomatic relations between the United States and Uzbekistan are rocky at best.

Emerging Threats
Commentary: Kremlin trumps NATO

By ARNAUD DE BORCHGRAVE, UPI Editor at Large
Published: Feb. 6, 2009 at 10:54 AM
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WASHINGTON, Feb. 6 (UPI) -- Elevated to the rank of "major non-NATO ally" by President George W. Bush, Pakistan is now deemed too dangerous for the hundreds of U.S. and NATO supply trucks that keep allied forces fighting against the Taliban in Afghanistan. In the latest attack against the NATO lifeline, 11 trucks and 13 containers were demolished outside Peshawar, near the northern end of the 600-mile route from the port of Karachi to the Khyber Pass. This followed the attack and collapse of a key bridge near the Khyber Pass, which backed up some 1,000 trucks all the way to Karachi. Normally, some 600 supply trucks a day cross the border into Afghanistan.

Kifayatullah Jan, the manager of Port World Logistics, a major North Atlantic Treaty Organization contractor, said his drivers were ready to pack it in when Pakistani insurgents torched 106 containers. "No protection, no business," lamented Jan. NATO and U.S. forces in Afghanistan require 70,000 containers of supplies per year, or about 75 percent of their total needs in fuel, food, equipment and construction materials. On any given day, there are 3 million gallons of fuel on Pakistani roads destined for allied forces in Afghanistan. In some cases, the Taliban extracted payments of $1,000 per vehicle at the point of a gun. Helicopter engines valued at $13 million were also hijacked. Taliban fighters gave Pakistani drivers certificates guaranteeing their trucks were requisitioned, not stolen.

The southern route through Pakistan was kept open while negotiations proceeded with Russia and the former Soviet Muslim republics -- known as the "Stans" -- for an alternate northern route. Supplies would be unloaded onto trains in German ports and taken by rail through Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and then by truck into Afghanistan, a distance five times longer than the 1,000-kilometer journey from Karachi to Kabul. Hardly an incentive for NATO and U.S. staying power against the Taliban in Afghanistan.

It doesn't require an overwhelming effort of geopolitical imagination to see the potential for Russian troublemaking along the northern supply route. For the time being, the Medvedev-Putin tandem has made clear the U.S.-NATO operation against the Taliban in Afghanistan is also in Russia's interest. The men in the Kremlin are anxious to prevent Islamist extremism spreading from Afghanistan into the Stans. They also like the idea of America's military machine pinned down in Iraq and Afghanistan. After all, the Soviets spent 10 years fighting the mujahedin guerrillas -- and were forced into a humiliating withdrawal six months before the fall of the Berlin Wall. They wouldn't mind seeing superpower America suffer the same fate. When they want to express displeasure, they can turn NATO's northern route into a Pakistan-like nightmare; all they have to do is invoke a railroad strike or a major railroad accident to cause difficult breathing on NATO's Afghan supply lung.

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February 8, 2009 at 11:53:06

by Rakesh Krishnan Simh

It was the diplomatic version of an ambush. On a freezing February day in Moscow, Kyrgyzstan President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev by his side, ordered the US out of the Manas military base, exposing the tattered remnants of Washington’s Central Asian diplomacy.

The move sent geopolitical analysts into a frenzy. Some called it a Russian checkmate -- the announcement came soon after Kyrgyzstan secured a $2.15 billion aid package from its giant neighbour. Others blamed the tight-fisted Americans for the loss of the sole US base in Central Asia which a White House spokesperson admitted was vital to America’s war in Afghanistan. Indeed, over the years, Washington had played a game of chicken with Bishkek over demands to increase the base’s annual rent of $63 million.

However, such explanations are overly simplistic. The fact is, Bishkek’s boot was a long time coming. The Kyrgyz weren’t exactly thrilled by the prospect of being pawns on The Grand Chessboard that Central Asia has become. Neither did they want to become victims of Washington’s declared intent to create an Arc of Instability that runs across the potentially volatile region.

A look at the geostrategic background makes things clearer. Since the voluntary dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the US has been engaged in a dangerous power play in Central Asia, eastern Europe and the Caucasus, three contiguous regions that, for geostrategic reasons, are lumped together as Eurasia.

Washington's geopolitical bible is "The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives," in which former US National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski stresses the necessity and the means for the US to establish complete domination over Eurasia. Brzezinski, from Poland, says by creating instability in every country in Russia’s neighbourhood, especially in the Central Asian Stans and Ukraine, and disrupting the flow of oil and gas, the US can isolate Russia, so that Moscow ceases to be a great power.

Brzezinski openly espouses provoking instability through exploiting the ethnic and religious diversity of the region. US policy, he states in The Grand Chessboard, is to "Balkanise Eurasia" and ensure that no possible stable economic or political region between Russia, the European Union and China emerges in the future that might challenge US global hegemony. The term "Arc of Instability" came into use in the1970s to refer to a 'Muslim Crescent' extending from Afghanistan to the Stans in the southern part of the former Soviet Union. Many troublesome signals indicate Brzezinski’s baleful fantasy is being activated.

Shortly after 9/11 when the US obtained the massive Soviet base at Khanabad for operations against the Taliban in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan began to witness an upsurge in Islamic terrorism. Leading the jihadis was the radical outfit Akramiya led by the demagogue Akram Yuldashev. It has been labeled a terrorist outfit by both the Uzbek government and the United Nations.

According to analyst Mikhail Chernov of Russia’s RBC Daily, the US appeared interested in creating disturbances in the ethnic alphabet soup that is the Ferghana Valley, which straddles Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. If Eastern Uzbekistan was split from the rest of the country, it would have made the link between Moscow and its bases in Tajikistan difficult. Then it would be over to the spin-doctors and puppeteers to install a pro-Western Islamic regime and use it to stir up Islamist insurgency in the area, including western China.
Initially, the destabilization efforts seemed to be going according to plan -- Uzbekistan-based terrorists established escape routes to, and bases in, Kyrgyzstan, which led to a series of flare-ups between the two countries. In 2005, Islamic insurgents, inspired by Yuldashev, rioted in the eastern Uzbek city of Andizhan and attempted to create yet another revolution in the post-Soviet space. Karimov, however, strayed from the script. Instead of falling like a domino in the manner of the other ex-Soviet leaders, he simply shot the protestors and expelled the Americans.

Bakiyev too is treading a minefield. He has to deal with Islamic insurgency spilling over from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan that threatens his country’s social fabric. The country has come a long way since Bakiyev’s predecessor Askar Akayev, a physicist, once suggested that the country's army be abolished as a gesture toward world peace. The Kyrgyz, whose nomadic heritage makes them more spiritual than religious, now feel that the presence of Islamic fundamentalists has completely changed the situation.

Indeed, Central Asia is a region where the giants play hardball. Kyrgyzstan is too small to ignore the geopolitical realities. And the reality is Bishkek can’t play hardball with the giants. Manas was a sore point with the Russians and Chinese as it afforded the US military the ability to snoop on the military movements of both Russia and China.

Geopolitical imperatives aside, Kyrgyzstan is in dire straits economically. From near European standards of living during Soviet times, the country today faces the danger of becoming a basket case, with fully a third of the population living below the poverty line.

Moscow’s offer is a deal worth double Kyrgyzstan's current annual GDP. Most of the cash will go towards building a hydro-electric plant that will power a country that has no hydrocarbon resources. In a region that floats on a sea of oil, that’s a bizarre accident of geography. If the Americans had addressed Bishkek’s pressing needs, things may not have come to such a pass. You could call it America’s crowning indiscretion. Clearly, Washington was not in the least interested in that country’s welfare.

The American presence in the isolated outposts of Central Asia has been possible solely because of Russia’s good will. Despite the temptation, the Russians at present are not interested in creating another Vietnam for the US. Dmitry Rogozin, Russia's ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, says: "In the event of NATO's defeat in Afghanistan, fundamentalists who are inspired by this victory will set their eyes on the north. First they will hit Tajikistan, then they will try to break into Uzbekistan... If things turn out badly, in about 10 years our boys will have to fight well-armed and well-organised Islamists somewhere in Kazakhstan."

However, that good will is running low. With a little encouragement from Russia, the Kyrgyz now know which superpower is better placed to serve their interests. And it is not one that has drawn the Arc of Instability. Wisely, Bishkek has decided to drop out of the Great Game.

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11 Feb 2009 13:34:09 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Maria Golovnina

ALA-ARCHA, Kyrgyzstan, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Kyrgyzstan's president accused the United States on Wednesday of refusing to heed repeated calls to pay more rent for its air base in his country but did not say if he would welcome a fresh U.S. offer.

President Kurmanbek Bakiyev said last week he would evict U.S. forces from Manas, an important staging post for U.S.-led operations in Afghanistan. He made the announcement in Moscow after securing more than $2 billion in Russian aid and credit.

The impoverished former Soviet republic has yet to say when the base would be officially shut, leading some observers to suggest it may still reverse the decision.

In his first public address since his Moscow trip, Bakiyev said he had long appealed on Washington to raise the rent to help his impoverished state cope with difficult economic times.

"We have no political disagreements with the United States. It's all about the financial element of the question," he told reporters at his official residence outside the capital Bishkek.

"Over the last three years I have personally raised this question with (top U.S. officials). I have always said to them: 'We have to review the terms of our agreement. Prices have changed and Kyrgyzstan is in a difficult financial situation'.

"And they always replied: 'Okay, Okay, Okay, Okay." They repeated that for years. But how long can one wait? We are a sovereign nation. We must have some respect for ourselves."

The United States says negotiations are still continuing and has expressed hope Kyrgyzstan may still change its mind. Bakiyev's office, however, has said the decision is final.

The U.S. government pays $17.4 million a year for use of the base. Its total assistance to Kyrgyzstan is $150 million a year.

The United States embassy in Bishkek said it was not authorised to comment on matters surrounding the base. Officials in Washington were not immediately available for comment.

At Wednesday's news conference, during which Western media were not allowed to ask questions, Bakiyev steered clear of any specifics on the future of the U.S. air base.

"I do not think our relations with the West would deteriorate," he said without elaborating.

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