Australia Headed For Recession


I've met a lot of Australians on this journey so far. Most have been relatively sanguine about the state of the Aussie economy. I haven't had the heart to tell any of them they are living in a fantasy world. And here is some anecdotal evidence as to why:

Wang Denggui, father of three, arrived more than a year ago in the palm-lined streets of this southern town with a single goal: toil in a factory to save for his children’s school tuition.

But the plans of Mr. Wang and thousands of co-workers unraveled at noon on Nov. 1, when the Taiwanese chairman of their ailing shoe factory climbed over a factory wall to flee the country and his debts. That left several American shoe companies with unfilled orders and 2,000 workers without jobs.

“He just ran without telling anyone,” Mr. Wang said.

For decades, the steamy Pearl River Delta area of southern Guangdong Province served as a primary engine for China’s astounding economic growth. But an export slowdown that began earlier this year and that has been magnified by the global financial crisis of recent months is contributing to the shutdown of tens of thousands of small and mid-size factories here and in other coastal regions, forcing laborers to scramble for other jobs or return home to the countryside.

What does a shoe factory in China have to do with the Aussie economy?

Raw materials. Raw materials exports to China have been propping up the Aussie economy. And now with Chinese factories being shuttered, it doesn't take a genius to figure out what will happen to the Aussie economy, another Anglo-Saxon economy that lived high on the credit bubble.


Sean Paul Kelley November 14, 2008 - 8:40am
( categories: Globalization )

The official unemployment rate remains below 4.4%, 8 billion US$ have been bandaided into the economy by the government, retail sales however are slowing... BUT some retailers had the best October ever... go figure.

The drought is still causing havoc for some agricultural sectors, but exports to Indonesia, South Korea, Sudan, Egypt are increasing especially in livestock and wheat sales.

Yet cotton, iron ore, coal and copper exports are down.

A $7billion financial stimulus package for pensioners and low income earners in the lead up to Christmas will see the retail sector maybe survive... But seriously how many DVD players, mobile phones and TV's can people buy?

Good news is that good red wines have never been so cheap...

As to clothing and shoes from China, they are being sold cheaper than ever in factory outlets.

However many Aussie have lost or have no access to money invested in mortgage funds etc...

The bubble may have burst. We wait to see if the bubble will choke us....

Confidence is a hard thing to call, the Aussie attitude of "she'll be right, mate" may get Australia through the next 6 months, or then again, maybe not.

It's going to be a long hot summer down here, in more ways than just the climate!

graham November 14, 2008 - 8:22pm

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.