^{“Is not our first thought to go on the road? The road is our source, our vault of treasures, our wealth. Only on the road does the ‘traveller’ feel like himself, at home.”
Ryszard Kapuscinski}

Another advantage might be, if things proceed as hoped for, the ability to strangle shipping over the Arctic between the pacific and europe. How they might pay for such a fleet I have no clue, and the Bering straits supplanting Panama and the Suez is just a dream yet, but still.

I do agree that Russia will be prosperous in 50 years time (IF alot of things), but I have to remark upon the irony of your comment regarding class and equality, heheh. Just the Russian way, eh? That and it is quite possible yet to obtain a russian bride on the cheap. I do not think there will be a great deal of immigration to Russia for some time, discounting the refugees of american wars.

Just wanted to point out that, with petro-fertilizers available, the quality of one's soil doesn't matter that much. Everything is basically grown hydroponically. Or so I am told...

The quality of soil does still matter, because at a certain point the input costs to make it fertile exceed the price that the harvested crop will fetch.

On the other hand, any soil can be built up to sustain plant life...it is a matter of whether one is willing to put the necessary energy into it. And there are a great many factors in that process.

Using "hydroponic" to describe our situation is true in so much as it describes growing plants by spoon feeding them everything they need. The "dirt" or perlite, or hydroton, etc is a means of support and nothing else. How we go about growing food "hydroponically" is, however, the most inefficient hydroponic method. Hence, fertilizer runoff etc. Conversely, in soil agriculture, fungi, bacteria and the like actually digest the nutrients into forms the plant can take up. Unfortunately, petro-fertilizers appear to kill the denizens of the soil ecosystem, making the plants then dependent on human feeding.

If the idea is to turn Siberia into amber waves of grain, i doubt that it will happen. But it may be possible to make the best of a bad situation (climate change) by getting some production out of those lands...though it would probably be with non-traditional crops.

I don't neccesarily think you'll be able to turn all arctic swamps easily into agricultural basins, but there will be a large increase from what today is marginal or poor land, because of a longer and better growing season.

What today is non-arable could either turn into marginally arable, or it could be used for energy crops or grazelands.

Also, Russia probably has a lot of land that would be arable today, but is covered with forests. Forest can and will be cut down if there is a profit to be made. Crop failure elsewhere in the world coupled with continued population growth will provide the required prices.

I'm not sure pests and destroyed ecosystem is a major concern for agriculture, the whole point of agriculture is to destroy the ecosystem in favour of monoculture. Monoculture is pretty safe from pests if managed properly.

I spoke to my daughter (she is a Masters student in Plant Biology) about this topic. Although this is not her area of expertise she offered a few insights.

Agriculture is an activity that is dependent on so many different factors that the overall benefits of global warming are hard to predict. Russia and Canada have similar soil types – the north has a large expanse of boreal forest, with pine and spruce trees further up, that expands from east to west. This area does not favor agriculture because of the acidity of its soil. Besides, it would be detrimental to remove a forest that acts as a carbon sink. However, the large swaths of land that will become available for cultivation will be affected by global warming. For instance, increased frequency of drought allows only drought resistant crops to survive. Also, certain crops do not grow well in higher temperatures – for example wheat, a staple food of many cultures, does not thrive above 20 degree Celsius. In addition, an extension of the warmth period increases the number of lifecycles of insects. Where the current Canadian summer produces two lifecycles, global warming may increase it to three or more for certain insect species.

That said, it appears that if agriculture is to succeed in producing food in a warmer climate, we may need to overcome our aversion to genetic modification technology. Currently, crops have already been modified to target specific pest species. Science has also found a way to make crops more resistant to salinity, heat and drought. For information on the endless possibilities of genetic modification see: Special Report on GM Organisms

For those that remain adamantly against GM food, adaptation to a diet that includes foods that are naturally drought resistant (amaranth, tepary beans) may be a solution.

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