Dow Closes Under 10,000


Not surprised. Not one bit. September and October are always the worst months. We'll probably see some kind of bounce in November, but I'm not real sure where support is here. Clearly 10,000 was a psychological barrier and a big deal. Where does it go from here? Low 9,000 if you ask me. Maybe under 9,000. Anyone else have any ideas? Numerian? Vonbahr? What do the technicals say at this point?


Sean Paul Kelley October 6, 2008 - 11:44pm
( categories: Economics: USA | The Markets )

The technicals are screaming this is an historically oversold situation by virtually any measure, with the exception of a few sentiment outliers. Everything else is either more extreme than the oversold conditions in 2001 - 2002, or as extreme during the crash of 1987.

However, if you are going to buy, you better be a skilled short term risk taker. This is a game only for the few, the brave, and maybe the foolhardy, because you are buying the proverbial "falling knife." This means buy a small amount of stocks or ETFs, and be prepared to sit on substantial losses. Some traders just turn off their screen and ignore the pain. It may be later this week, or as late as two weeks, before a dramatic recovery takes place to relieve the severe oversold condition.

Another reason to buy? Cramer has just issued a major sell recommendation to his viewers, telling them to dump everything they cannot afford to sit on for the next five years, because it could go down 20%. He's right about the 20%, but that may happen next year. He's wrong on the timing, because there should be better prices at the end of this year. Cramer has become to stocks what Donald Trump is to real estate. Anytime either of these jokers is giving a major recommendation, it pays to go the other way.

You want to buy when everyone thinks the world is coming to an end. A week later, we'll all be marveling at the fact that corporate profits have held up pretty well (especially in techs and small caps), and a nice year end rally will develop.

After which, next year we'll start heading down and go through this process all over again, only hitting lower lows and greater panic.

Numerian October 7, 2008 - 12:52am
mauberly October 7, 2008 - 10:19am

What happened to the Dow in 1973-1980. It bottomed out at about 800 or so, in 1980. The City of New York went bankrupt in 1977. The people upstate had no sympathy for NYC, and said good riddance.

After the oil shock in 1973 the FTSE collapsed to 139.

I was the last hire in the company where I worked, from July 1973, until December 1975. I was too inexperienced to know this was abnormal.

And as for buy, buy, buy, any time in 1974, 1975, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, and maybe 1979 and 1980 it would have been a bad investment.

Synoia October 7, 2008 - 12:56am

Anyway, traders are looking for two to six weeks of counter-trend rally here. Only investors are looking to hold equities long term, and just as in the 70s, they will get creamed with their buy and hold strategy.

Numerian October 7, 2008 - 1:30am

I'm idly wondering how long it will be until people with strong stomachs and access to cash take long term short positions in index ETFs and in high-vulnerability sectors not protected by the SEC.

A three to ten year recession gives the market a lot of room to drop.

Wandering Cynic October 7, 2008 - 4:50am

decline in the Dow, when Carter was elected, from 12/76 to 3/78. Pretty crispy.

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

mauberly October 7, 2008 - 10:18am

I'm no expert, but P/E ratio for the S&P is around 17 - which is still on the high side of the historic norm, and the short term trends are bearish. Considering that, there are probably some decent values, but the market as a whole is overpriced, and tending in a negative direction.

NateTG October 7, 2008 - 2:27am

By the time the market reaches a real bottom in three or four years. But in bear markets there are violent countertrend moves, which is what we are due to see in this one.

Numerian October 7, 2008 - 7:06am

Short energy, new growth becomes impossible.

I don't know crap about playing markets but markets at some point have to reflect reality on the streets and the reality on the streets is that additional growth will be difficult if not impossible.

This is long term and likely to gather momentum over time.

I am of the opinion that increasing energy and resource costs led to this downturn.

The United States sent $700 billion dollars to foreign lands last year to purchase oil, which conincidently is the same amount required to perform the bailout.

I did inhale.

Don October 7, 2008 - 7:39am

Related article here.

I did inhale.

Don October 7, 2008 - 2:04pm

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