I may be wrong, but I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that the other shoe (and another, and another) have dropped or will soon drop. The ratings agencies have cut their ratings on AIG. Yes, the State of New York has allowed AIG to borrow $20billion from its subsidiaries, but that just postpones the inevitable. Will the proposed Wall Street rescue in the form of a supposed $70 billion bridge loan of sorts work? I doubt it. The points Michael Lewitt makes in this op-ed are probably right:
But there is a bigger potential failure lurking: the American International Group, the insurance giant. It poses a much larger threat to the financial system than Lehman Brothers ever did because it plays an integral role in several key markets: credit derivatives, mortgages, corporate loans and hedge funds.
Late Monday, A.I.G. was downgraded by the major credit rating agencies (which inexplicably still retain an enormous amount of power in the marketplace despite having gutted their credibility with unreliable ratings for mortgage-backed securities during the housing boom). This credit downgrade could require A.I.G. to post billions of dollars of additional collateral for its mortgage derivative contracts.
Fat chance. That’s collateral A.I.G. does not have. There is therefore a substantial possibility that A.I.G. will be unable to meet its obligations and be forced into liquidation. A side effect: Its collapse would be as close to an extinction-level event as the financial markets have seen since the Great Depression.
A.I.G. does business with virtually every financial institution in the world. Most important, it is a central player in the unregulated, Brobdingnagian credit default swap market that is reported to be at least $60 trillion in size.
Although his solution, well, just read the last paragraph of his op-ed and you'll see he's all for socializing the losses and privatizing the profits. I've had enough of that, as I said, let it burn. It was the New Deal that saved this country and the cheerleaders of de-regulation, like yourself, who've once again brought it to its knees. Thanks man, thanks a lot!
Anyway, this crisis isn't over, not by a long-shot. And if AIG fails it's going to get a great deal worse. And the only way the Federal Government should get involved is under one condition: strict regulations going forward on toxic-financial waste and lots of disclosure. If we can't have that, you can't have your bailout.
Update: Here's something even more worrisome about the deal the State of NY allowed AIG to cut with its subsidiaries:
Right now, illegally and with the regulators watching and nodding in agreement as it happens, lot's of bank deposits, life insurance savings and any unencumbered cash held in the system .... i.e. real life savings and earnings .... has suddenly been made available by the weekend rule changes by the Fed and US treasury. They are now being swept into accounts that hold the other side of the derivative trades.
The firewalls against fraud have been torn in expedience "to save the system from itself". The fraud and incompetence is running rife and has just been taken up another notch. There will be nothing left but the empty husk when the locusts and other assorted parasites have finished.
And this last quip:
AIG is blowing all the policyholders protections with the assistance of New York insurance superintendent Eric R. Dinallo, Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and David A. Paterson, Governor of New York.
Read the whole post, it's sobering. And here's a video to really make for a happy morning.