AIG Is Toast


I may be wrong, but I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that the other shoe (and another, and another) have dropped or will soon drop. The ratings agencies have cut their ratings on AIG. Yes, the State of New York has allowed AIG to borrow $20billion from its subsidiaries, but that just postpones the inevitable. Will the proposed Wall Street rescue in the form of a supposed $70 billion bridge loan of sorts work? I doubt it. The points Michael Lewitt makes in this op-ed are probably right:

But there is a bigger potential failure lurking: the American International Group, the insurance giant. It poses a much larger threat to the financial system than Lehman Brothers ever did because it plays an integral role in several key markets: credit derivatives, mortgages, corporate loans and hedge funds.

Late Monday, A.I.G. was downgraded by the major credit rating agencies (which inexplicably still retain an enormous amount of power in the marketplace despite having gutted their credibility with unreliable ratings for mortgage-backed securities during the housing boom). This credit downgrade could require A.I.G. to post billions of dollars of additional collateral for its mortgage derivative contracts.

Fat chance. That’s collateral A.I.G. does not have. There is therefore a substantial possibility that A.I.G. will be unable to meet its obligations and be forced into liquidation. A side effect: Its collapse would be as close to an extinction-level event as the financial markets have seen since the Great Depression.

A.I.G. does business with virtually every financial institution in the world. Most important, it is a central player in the unregulated, Brobdingnagian credit default swap market that is reported to be at least $60 trillion in size.

Although his solution, well, just read the last paragraph of his op-ed and you'll see he's all for socializing the losses and privatizing the profits. I've had enough of that, as I said, let it burn. It was the New Deal that saved this country and the cheerleaders of de-regulation, like yourself, who've once again brought it to its knees. Thanks man, thanks a lot!

Anyway, this crisis isn't over, not by a long-shot. And if AIG fails it's going to get a great deal worse. And the only way the Federal Government should get involved is under one condition: strict regulations going forward on toxic-financial waste and lots of disclosure. If we can't have that, you can't have your bailout.

Update: Here's something even more worrisome about the deal the State of NY allowed AIG to cut with its subsidiaries:

Right now, illegally and with the regulators watching and nodding in agreement as it happens, lot's of bank deposits, life insurance savings and any unencumbered cash held in the system .... i.e. real life savings and earnings .... has suddenly been made available by the weekend rule changes by the Fed and US treasury. They are now being swept into accounts that hold the other side of the derivative trades.

The firewalls against fraud have been torn in expedience "to save the system from itself". The fraud and incompetence is running rife and has just been taken up another notch. There will be nothing left but the empty husk when the locusts and other assorted parasites have finished.

And this last quip:

AIG is blowing all the policyholders protections with the assistance of New York insurance superintendent Eric R. Dinallo, Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and David A. Paterson, Governor of New York.

Read the whole post, it's sobering. And here's a video to really make for a happy morning.


Sean Paul Kelley September 15, 2008 - 11:59pm
( categories: Analysis | The Markets )

not sure how the "value" is in the trillions

as a derivative, I gather it is stripped out of the bond payment stream, somehow

or is it plain insurance?

does it affect the extent to which bonds can be leveraged? So when they go plunk, does it expose trading houses to margin calls on bonds, straining cash reserves?

I am obviously guessing. Any knowledge would be appreciated

the "trillions" got my attention

jwp September 16, 2008 - 12:25am

unfunded insurance policy exempt from regulation

and maybe exempt from taxation

groovy

jwp September 16, 2008 - 6:45am

To get the bailout you must be splintered into pieces which are not "too big to fail".

“The Playboy reader invites a female acquaintance in for a quiet discussion of Picasso, Nietzsche, jazz, sex.” - Hugh Hefner

Tonsure Wimple September 16, 2008 - 1:54am

American International's shares already trade a few pennies north of $5 - just where Fannie Mae was before they collapsed. Once they cross below that line, there are all sorts of investment firms, mutual funds, hedge funds, which can't hold them in their portfolio because $5/share is their lower limit. Hence the rapid move down into pennies a share, where the market says effectively "you are bankrupt".

If this is what the market says, then if there are healthy subsidiaries with billions in customer deposits and an ability to pay claims to these customers as needed, there must be something else (like the parent company in this case) with losses that dwarf that of the subsidiaries. That's why you get all this fanciful talk of separating out the good bank from the bad bank, but this only works if the Fed or Treasury takes on the liabilities of the bad bank. And here we are talking about trillions of liabilities on paper in the collateralized debt swap and debt obligation market, something at least Timothy Geithner at the NY Fed is very familiar with and probably wants kept completely separate from the Fed balance sheet.

But in this case he seems happy to let the good bank and bad bank get all mixed up at AIG to buy time for some miracle loan to be created by the banking industry's survivors. If and when the loan does show up, even if it is tomorrow, it now seems that it will be used to allow AIG to be wound down in an orderly manner through the bankruptcy courts, while the derivatives market sorts through all the swaps and options on mortgage backed securities, and all the insurance guarantees made by AIG. Maybe the $75 billion will even be used to absorb all the losses caused by these derivatives, though you might remember just a month ago industry experts were telling us at most these losses would come to $15 billion. Just like Richard Bove, the analyst, was telling us the worst was over and a bottom had been reached on financial stocks. Funny how we all forget these things, because he is all over TV this week dispensing more wisdom as if he never said anything a month ago about a bottom.

Maybe also that line of credit will allow the good bank to be sold intact to Warren Buffett or someone who knows how to run an insurance company. Then there would be a favorable outcome to all this. But as the hours tick by and no loan materializes, with bankruptcy looming, it sure looks like those insurance premiums people paid in over the years, and the investments AIG put them into, are going to get swallowed up in derivatives losses. If that happens, the stock market will catch on, as will the general public, to the fact that your bank account is not safe anywhere. This is the type of panic that the authorities are toying with in trying to save AIG.

Numerian September 16, 2008 - 7:04am

A Former Regulator on the Fed Allowing Deposits to Fund Investment Banking Operations

I worked as a senior supervisory analyst at the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York in the late 80s/ early 90s when the FHLB (and later the Office of Thrift Supervision) were cleaning up the S&L mess. In reading of this development, I am speechless. The whole point of our job was to minimize risk to the deposit insurance funds, and our bosses really drummed that one into our heads.


Their first commment:

The 23A suspension will make it hard for us to know how much is being risked, at what odds, and for how long. It is a blank check issued under the table.

The problem that the rule suspension creates is even more serious - basically, it leads to massive adverse selection, when the already suspicious interbank market completely shuts down due to the lack of what's left of banking transparency.


"Frankly, we've lost a lot in recent years." - General Colin Powell

Raja September 16, 2008 - 7:31am

Meltdown in US finance system pummels stock market

The Dow Jones industrial average lost more than 500 points, more than 4 percent, its steepest point drop since the day the stock market reopened after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. About $700 billion evaporated from retirement plans, government pension funds and other investment portfolios.

Tina September 16, 2008 - 7:48am

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