Lehman Going Down


So, here comes the next shoe: Lehman Brothers. Will the government bail them out? I doubt it. That particular plate is already too full.

So, what happens if they don't? Bear was a big deal. But I'd submit from my own experience that Lehman is just as significant to the markets as Bear was, especially being a bond house for so long. Wanna really roil the credit markets? Let this one fail. Bernanke and Paulson have to be at their wits' end, hoping and praying they can pass the worst part of this mess on to the next presidential administration.

The odds of that happening are getting slimmer every day.

The kicker is this: it doesn't look like an Asian sovereign wealth fund is in the wings for Lehman. No Temasek like Merril, or Bahraini or Saudi money for some others. And South Korea isn't interested in throwing away Korean taxpayer money. Good for the Koreans but bad for us.

That being said, maybe it is time to just let the markets clear. You remember the mantra, right? "Free markets!"

You can rec this piece at Buzzflash and NewsHeat.


Sean Paul Kelley September 10, 2008 - 3:14am
( categories: Analysis | Economics: USA | The Markets )

Warren Buffett has a subsidiary that offers deposit insurance to banks in excess of the $100,000 insurance they receive from the FDIC. It's a handy product that allows the banks to attract wealthy depositors.

Buffett just ordered the company to cancel all of these insurance policies.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSBNG18820320080910

Numerian September 10, 2008 - 7:06am

“Is not our first thought to go on the road? The road is our source, our vault of treasures, our wealth. Only on the road does the ‘traveller’ feel like himself, at home.”
Ryszard Kapuscinski

Sean Paul Kelley September 10, 2008 - 7:48am

Took a look just now and it's about $2.50, down over 20% from yesterday's shellacking. I note that they've been selling 12-month 5% CDs online lately...

Petronius September 10, 2008 - 11:18am

NYT, BY Ben White, September 10

The investment bank Lehman Brothers, in an all-out fight for its survival, said Wednesday morning that it expected a loss of $3.9 billion, or $5.92 a share, in the third quarter after $5.6 billion in write-downs.

The investment bank also said that it would spin off the majority of its remaining commercial real estate holdings into a new public company. And it confirmed plans to sell a majority of its investment management division in a move that it expects to generate $3 billion.

The moves come after Lehman’s stock lost nearly half its value on Tuesday as investors feared it was running out of options to raise capital and shore up its ailing balance sheet. Shares in Lehman, a major underwriter of mortgage-related securities during the credit boom, are down over 90 percent since hitting their peak last year before the subprime mortgage crisis took hold.

Lehman said Wednesday that it hoped to complete the spin-off of around $32 billion in commercial mortgage assets by early next year.


Floyd Norris is live blogging a shareholder call with Lehman over at the NYT.


"Frankly, we've lost a lot in recent years." - General Colin Powell

Raja September 10, 2008 - 7:30am

U. S. A.
Free. Mar. kets.
U. S. A.
Free. Mar. kets.
U. S. A.
repeat ad infinitum.
Isn't this all we have to do?

JT September 10, 2008 - 8:55am

-5.75,-4.05
"God gives men a brain and a penis, and only enough blood to run one at a time." -- Robin Williams

justadood September 10, 2008 - 9:51am

So what's an average joe with some cash in the bank supposed to do when the FDIC starts looking underfunded?

xlorp September 10, 2008 - 3:55pm

That's a really good question, and despite the FDIC being backed by the government, seemingly more germane every day.

From last month, we have:

FDIC Warns of More Bank Troubles

ABC NEWS, By Scott Mayerowitz, August 26

The health of U.S. banks is quickly deteriorating, and the government fund set up to protect depositors might not have enough money to insure everybody, analysts told ABCNews.com.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, or FDIC, insures bank deposits of up to $100,000 at nearly 8,500 of the nation's banks and also keeps a watch list of banks that it considers in trouble.

Thanks to a collapsing housing market and a weak economy, a growing number of banks are struggling to stay afloat, with not enough cash on hand to cover losses from bad loans.

At the beginning of the year, 90 banks were on the FDIC watch list. There are now 117, FDIC chairwoman Sheila C. Bair announced at a news conference this afternoon. That is the highest number in five years, but some analysts expect the list to grow even more in coming months.

However:

"I fully expect the FDIC insurance fund to be depleted," Ryan added. "The FDIC is going to be one of what is going to be an increasing string of government bailouts."

If that happens, ultimately taxpayers will be on the hook. The FDIC borrows money with a line of credit from the U.S. Treasury, which essentially is taxpayer money.

So, probably, they'll just print more money, if they have to.

Just be sure you're within the insured limits.


"Frankly, we've lost a lot in recent years." - General Colin Powell

Raja September 10, 2008 - 4:28pm

Disclaimer: this speculation on unfolding developments is not presented as investment advice.

Some have been expecting gold and silver to decline as hedges are forced to deleverage, presenting excellent buying opportunities at support levels. And if things get weird, as they well might, they think that PM's (precious metals) will likely do very well.

Even if this isn't the meltdown, PM's provide insurance with fairly limited risk if bought at lower support levels, and there really isn't much else available with low risk other then T-bills, and the upside potential of PM's is much greater than T-bills if things get bad, thinking that equities and other markets have not yet adequately priced in unfolding risk, especially due to huge lack of transparency in the financial system, coupled with the fact that the powers that be have been bluffing (lying) right up to the very end. (But remember that T bill are denominated in dollars, and every bailout potentially devalues the dollar. PM's are traditionally money. They aren't used as "money" as a medium of exchange because Gresham's law leads to their hoarding as a store of value.)

Translation: It's very likely there's still a load of sh*t to hit the fan that hasn't yet been disclosed, and what we do know is not good and doesn't bode well. Confidence is crashing, and trust is being trashed.

Some folks have been moving 5-20% into physical gold and silver "just in case," and cashing out of other stuff into T-bills for day to day liquidity.

Personally, I think we're in for financial carnage before the election. The Fannie-Freddie deal may be the place where the wheels really come off.

Jim Kunstler - Last Ditch

tjfxh September 10, 2008 - 4:41pm

If all of this wealth-destroying crashing causes the money supply to constrict substantially, that may cause prices in dollars of PMs to drop. In deflation, cash is king.

It seems like we're getting asset deflation and price inflation, which certainly complicates matters.


"Frankly, we've lost a lot in recent years." - General Colin Powell

Raja September 13, 2008 - 9:56pm

WaPo, By David Cho & Heather Landy, September 11

The Federal Reserve and Treasury are actively helping Lehman Brothers put itself up for sale, and officials are hoping a deal will be in place this weekend before Asian markets open on Monday, according to sources familiar with the matter.

The government is looking for an agreement that would not involve public money. One scenario that is emerging includes multiple suitors acquiring different pieces of the venerable investment bank, which has suffered staggering losses from its business in real estate and mortgages.

The situation was still fluid tonight, and there was no guarantee what form an agreement would take, or even that it would be in place by Monday, the sources said on condition of anonymity because they had not been authorized to speak.

Regulators have been in touch with Lehman on almost an hourly basis in recent days. And high-ranking officials including New York Federal Reserve President Timothy F. Geithner, Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke have been discussing a broad range of possibilities for Lehman, trying to determine what risks each outcome would pose to the financial system.
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Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox and Lehman Chief Executive Richard S. Fuld have also been speaking several times daily.


"Frankly, we've lost a lot in recent years." - General Colin Powell

Raja September 11, 2008 - 6:53pm

Treasury, Fed reportedly helping as deal sought by this weekend

MarketWatch, By Alistair Barr, September 11

SAN FRANCISCO -- Lehman Brothers is for sale as Wall Street and financial regulators rush to salvage a once-thriving brokerage firm that's threatened by a potential exodus of clients and trading partners.

Lehman has put itself up for sale and has been calling rival banks, brokerage firms and other potential acquirers, according to three people familiar with the situation.

Suitors include Bank of America, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter. Spokesmen at Lehman and Bank of America declined to comment.

The Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve are helping with the sale, the Washington Post reported, citing sources familiar with the matter. Nothing is finalized and there are several potential outcomes, but a deal is expected to be unveiled this weekend before Asian markets open Monday morning, the newspaper added.
Potential buyers remain wary about troubled assets on Lehman's balance sheet and are increasingly looking to the U.S. government to help backstop any future losses, the Journal said.


"Frankly, we've lost a lot in recent years." - General Colin Powell

Raja September 11, 2008 - 6:56pm

Dealbreaker.Com, By John Carney, September 14

We understand that a deal has been reached to divide Lehman Brothers into two entities, with a "bad bank" taking the toxic, real-estate assets amounting to around $85 billion. The deal will be financed without any government backing. Lehman chief executive Dick Fuld will resign.

Bank of America will take the lion's share of the good assets of Lehman, with Barclay's and Nomura playing a role as well. An international consortium of financial firms will inject capital for the deal, preventing Lehman's assets from flooding the market in a fire sale. Many US based firms have not played a large role, in part because they are facing their own financial challenges.


"Frankly, we've lost a lot in recent years." - General Colin Powell

Raja September 14, 2008 - 9:12am

Lehman Heads Toward Brink as Barclays Ends Talks

New York Times, By Ben White and Jenny Anderson, September 14

Unable to find a savior, the troubled investment bank Lehman Brothers appeared headed toward liquidation on Sunday, in what would be one of the biggest failures in Wall Street history.

The fate of Lehman hung in the balance as Federal Reserve officials and the leaders of major financial institutions continued to gather in emergency meetings on Sunday trying to complete a plan to rescue the stricken bank.

But Barclays, considered the leading contender to buy all or part of Lehman, said Sunday that it could not reach a deal without financial support from the federal government or other banks, making a liquidation more likely.

The leading proposal had been to divide Lehman into two entities, a “good bank” and a “bad bank.” Under that scenario, Barclays would have bought the parts of Lehman that have been performing well, while a group of 10 to 15 Wall Street companies would agree to absorb losses from the bank’s troubled assets, according to two people briefed on the proposal. Taxpayer money would not be included in such a deal, they said.

But that plan fell apart on Sunday, making it likely that Lehman would be forced to liquidate.


"Frankly, we've lost a lot in recent years." - General Colin Powell

Raja September 14, 2008 - 1:27pm

Barclays Walks from Lehman Deal; Likelihood for Transaction Narrows

WSJ, By Carrick Mollenkam & Matthew Karnitschnig, September 14

The fate of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s darkened early Sunday afternoon with Barclays PLC, the sole remaining bidder for the 158-year-old Wall Street firm, telling federal regulators that it is walking away from a transaction, people familiar with the matter say.

The situation was rapidly evolving, and it's possible Barclays or another bidder would emerge to save Lehman before markets opened Monday. But with the government balking at putting any taxpayer money at risk for Lehman, the likelihood of a transaction was dimming. That would leave an orderly liquidation as the most likely scenario, a dramatic outcome for a once-powerful firm.

According to people familiar with the situation, a stumbling block is the request that Barclays obtain shareholder approval before it agrees to cover Lehman's contracts with other financial firms. But organizing a shareholder vote would take days if not weeks. U.S. regulators are likely to have known this, raising a question about why this provision emerged late in the talks.

The main stumbling block for any Barclays deal is a reluctance by U.S. regulators to financially back an acquisition or the creation of a so-called "bad bank" to wind down Lehman's assets.


"Frankly, we've lost a lot in recent years." - General Colin Powell

Raja September 14, 2008 - 1:32pm

New York Times, By Landon Thomas, Jr., September 16

LONDON — Barclays, a leading British bank, confirmed on Tuesday that it was in talks with Lehman Brothers about “the possible acquisition” of some assets at the American bank, which filed for bankruptcy protection Monday as the financial crisis bit deeper and sent world markets into a tailspin.

In a statement from its London headquarters, Barclays did not give details, saying only that it was discussing “certain Lehman Brothers assets on terms that would be attractive to Barclays shareholders.”

“There can be no assurance that the discussions will result in an agreement,” the statement said.

The discussions, news of which was reported earlier by The Wall Street Journal, followed talks last weekend from which Barclays withdrew.


"Frankly, we've lost a lot in recent years." - General Colin Powell

Raja September 16, 2008 - 6:16am

Reuters & CNBC, September 16

British bank Barclays has agreed to buy Lehman Brothers' core U.S. broker-dealer business for roughly $2 billion, a source familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

The deal for Lehman's broker-dealer business includes equity, fixed income, M&A advisory and other parts, according to the source, who declined to be identified.


"Frankly, we've lost a lot in recent years." - General Colin Powell

Raja September 16, 2008 - 3:14pm

The Motley Fool, By Alex Dumortier, September 17

Before this weekend, Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) had floated a number of ideas to stabilize its business, including spinning off the company’s distressed assets to its shareholders -- the “good bank/bad bank” option. Perhaps this gave Bob Diamond, the president of U.K. bank Barclays (NYSE: BCS), his inspiration for what looks like a brilliant move.

Barclays announced today that it would acquire Lehman’s U.S. broker-dealer subsidiary for $1.75 billion. The deal gives Barclays immediate heft in the U.S. debt and equity capital markets and in providing advice for corporate clients such as General Electric (NYSE: GE) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) -- a good complement to its existing businesses.

Crucially, the deal, which still requires the approval of the bankruptcy court, doesn’t include any exposure to the $85 billion in toxic assets that were the roadblock in the sale of the entire company. Indeed, Barclays ended talks this weekend to acquire Lehman’s holding company because U.S. authorities were unwilling to provide any guarantees with respect to the firm’s bad assets, as they had in the rescue of Bear Stearns by JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM).

By waiting for the bankruptcy process to play out, Barclays’ Bob Diamond sidesteps that mine and makes away with some of Lehman’s prize assets for a song: $1.75 billion. Deducting the estimated market value of Lehman’s headquarters and two data centers which are included in the transaction ($1.5 billion), he is paying approximately $250 million for a great franchise with good earnings power.


"Frankly, we've lost a lot in recent years." - General Colin Powell

Raja September 17, 2008 - 2:57pm

Lehman set to go into insolvency

Preparations are being made for US investment bank Lehman Brothers to file for bankruptcy protection.

The firm was pushed to the brink on Sunday after UK bank Barclays pulled out of talks to buy most of Lehman.

If no new financing is found before Wall Street opens on Monday, Lehman will have to seek so-called Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

This could result in a severe shock to the global financial system, as banks unwind their complex deals with Lehman.

It could take weeks or even months to complete and put banks around the world in a state of extreme uncertainty.

In the UK, accountancy firm PWC has been lined up to run the British operations of Lehman.

BBC business editor Robert Peston says Barclays' decision to walk away from a Lehman deal was a huge setback for the effort to rescue the fourth-largest investment bank in the United States.

A source close to the talks told the BBC that Barclays was unlikely to change its mind.

Barclays terminated the negotiations because it was unable to obtain guarantees in relation to financial commitments faced by Lehman when markets open on Monday.

Unless the US government does a U-turn and puts taxpayers' money into Lehman, the bank will have to file for bankruptcy protection.

more

Tina September 14, 2008 - 4:53pm

WASHINGTON, D.C. - September 18, 2008 – The Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC), which maintains a special reserve fund authorized by Congress to help investors at failed brokerage firms, issued the following statement today in relation to the SIPC member, Lehman Brothers Inc. (LBI).

SIPC President Stephen Harbeck said: “On Friday, September 19, 2008, SIPC will file a proceeding placing LBI in liquidation under the Securities Investor Protection Act (SIPA). After extensive discussions and consultation with representatives of the firm and its parent company, as well as representatives of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Reserve, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and others, SIPC has decided that such action is appropriate for the protection of customers and to facilitate the transfer of customer accounts of LBI and an orderly unwinding of the business of the brokerage firm.


"Frankly, we've lost a lot in recent years." - General Colin Powell

Raja September 19, 2008 - 7:32am

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