Over the past couple of days, ships from the Russian Black Sea fleet - deployed for support in the South Ossetia-Georgian-Russo conflict - have been returning to Sevastopol. As you recall, President Viktor Yushchenko's had previously warned that those ships would only be allowed returned if they were subject to new requirements. Apparently, these were merely hollow threats by Yushchenko, and he now stated in an interview that "[w]e cannot control a foreign fleet's operational activities."

more after the jump

http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/2008-120-32.cfm

Russia is building a new naval base in Novorossiysk, which will allegedly be operational in 2012. "But it does not have the deep bays of Sevastopol, nor the space to cope with a fleet that numbers some 400 vessels, 160 fixed wing aircraft and helicopters and over 20,000 seamen."

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4592851.ece

I believe - by the time the lease expires in 2017 (certainly before then) - the political winds will have shifted in Ukraine along with Russia's apparently burgeoning power in the region. Yulia Tymoshenko is moving towards a pro-Kremlin stance, as evidenced by her silence on the conflict in Georgia and the investigation by President Viktor Yushchenko into allegations of treason and corruption. This will undoubtedly allow Russia to retain control of Crimea and the naval base at Sevastopol. Actually, for all intents and purposes, the Crimea is already under Russian control, so I doubt there will be an alleged invasion.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4592851.ece

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4597025.ece

People in Ukraine, in large part, prefer to be part of the EU as opposed to NATO. I visit Ukraine frequently, and many Eastern Ukrainians, from my perspective, do not want to totally remove themselves from the Russian sphere of influence, as evidenced by the mere 20% support to join NATO. They are more Russian than Western Ukrainians. The west of Ukraine - as some poster noted - is the gateway to Poland. In fact, western Ukraine was part of Poland prior to the Great Patriotic War (WW II).

Now, there are reports that Russia has been distributing passports in the port of Sevastopol. I am sure this has been going on for some time, because there are many Russian citizens in Crimea. Another hobgoblin or what?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/2575421/Russia-distributing-passports-in-the-Crimea.html

Nor is Ukraine's military capable of defending an attack from Russia, not that there will be one. Or, as one Ukrainian Army Captain recently stated: "A single drunk enemy soldier would be able to drive all of Ukraine's armed forces into the Dnipro River with a whip."

http://www.kyivpost.com/nation/29449/

I sincerely believe Yulia will win the upcoming election. She is more popular there, and if she has support from Russia and wins the election, then I believe the lease will be extended. As a result, Ukraine would not be allowed into NATO, because there is a foreign non-NATO military base in Crimean Ukraine (a fact many Russians and Crimeans would dispute as being part of Ukraine). That is, it is my understanding that Ukraine would not be allowed into NATO as long as Russia's Black Sea fleet is in Sevastopol, Crimea, which is why Yushchenko is so adamant about not renewing the lease and about the recent mandate re the requirements on the return of the Black Sea fleet to Crimea from operations in Georgia. And as you see . . . those requirements were akin to Condi Rice - in her school marm way - chiding Russia to "get out now of Georgia." Lest we not forget the others . . . Yawn.

I have looked on the NATO web-site for these protocols that discuss this requirement, but lately I am constrained by time and I have not been able to locate them. The only thing I have been able to locate is this and this.

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080623/111792916.html

http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/2008-120-32.cfm

In any event, if that is truly a requirement, then that is the biggest stumbling block to Ukraine becoming part of NATO, which I believe will never happen. The Crimea will be returned to Russia before Ukraine becomes part of NATO.

I also sincerely doubt Putin will put himself back on the presidential ticket in the next election. I think he can rule Russia from the Prime Minister spot without playing musical chairs every 8 years. He is there to stay.