From the Nelson Report:

SUMMARY: the crisis in Georgia puts everyone in a bind, since the "good guys", aka Georgia, brought much of this on themselves, and the "bad guys", aka Russia, have been warning us since Kosovo what the Kremlin's limits are.

An open question...are "good guys" automatically "our guys"? McCain seems to think so. Obama seems to grasp the risks. Who will look "strong"? "Weak"?

Our experts are unhappy to have to say, on balance, that as reprehensible as is Russian bombing of civilians, it's Tbilisi which, perhaps presuming more substantive Western support than realism would suggest, pushed Moscow over the line.

Are the "experts" saying Russia is "justified"...no, of course not. But understandable? "Yes".

"Another 1938"? Nonsense....unless Russia just rolls past a cease-fire (probable by mid-week, once its political goals are achieved by military means).

The real "red line" for UN, Euros and the "good guys"? If Russia moves to use force for regime-change, and/or to significantly rearrange the border....then the clearly-expressed anxieties of the Baltic States may not be completely far-fetched.

But realistically, the "next" place to worry about Russia is the Ukraine.

"Perspective" tonight is (are) the full statements from Obama and McCain. ...read and it may help decide who you want answering that "3 am phone call".

More after the jump, including Obama and McCain statements.

GEORGIA...as noted in the Summary, no one we spoke with today is happy about their conclusion that as reprehensible as the Russian resort to warfare definitely is, the handwriting has been on the wall for months (years, even) and the Georgian leader should have been more realistic about what his actions would likely provide...an excuse amounting to a provocation.

Our experts ruefully analyze the crisis as an accident on its way to happen for more than a decade, as Russian sensibilities were rubbed in the mud of Cold War triumphalism, for much of the 1990's, Russian strategic concerns were trumped, in Kosovo, and its strategic interests blithely set aside in the NATO expansion, and missiles in Eastern Europe debates.

So yes, this is about ego, nationalism, pride...but it is also about very real strategic interests for Moscow, and you don't have to be Henry Kissinger to grasp that being a "good guy" doesn't give you a free pass to ignore the other guy's core concerns.

And to be brutally frank, as a Loyal Reader privately remarked today, "just because someone is a 'good guy', it doesn't necessarily mean he's OUR 'good guy'."

This cogent summing up of the moral and geopolitical dilemma presented by Georgia also can be applied to the Bush Administration's anxieties over the then-DPP government on Taiwan, as it seemed to be risking China's military wrath, while ignoring (or taking for granted) US concerns.

We forget which Imperial Brit is was who noted that the Empire "has no permanent friends, only permanent interests"...and his brutally realpolitik point seems more than usually apt today.

But we've learned the hard way that analogies tend to get us into trouble, so let's quickly get back to Georgia...

In statements issued today (printed in full, below) Obama is focused on giving Russia its due as a major player with major interests which can't be ignored, while condemning its actions, and calling on the UN, and the international community, to work on supplying a genuine international PKO.

McCain gets deeply into emotional arguments (why is Georgia as a "Christian nation" important in this context?) and is very, very clearly on the "side" of Georgia, and against the Russians.

Add this to McCain's tough-talk about kicking Russia (and China) out of the G-8, and you start to have a picture of his basic foreign policy approach to the two major competitor/adversaries to the US alliance and the west.

So...two positions definitely worthy of debate, and given the August attention span of most voters, you have to ask if "talking tough" will help McCain establish his "experience" credential, and/or whether Obama "talking reason" will make him seem "soft" and "naive".

We asked a Loyal Reader with deep experience on Russia/Eastern Europe for his private comments, which must be anonymous due to his professional situation. Note his praise of the Bush Administration, so far, and its agreement with Obama...and his dismay at what he terms "McCain's saber rattling":

"What I have to write on this subject will not please the 1938 Munich
crowd. The Russians went to great lengths to warn the West that its
actions regarding Kosovo would have implications for other complicated
border situations in the countries of the old USSR. We are so used to
calling the Russians' bluff since the fall of the Soviet Union that the
West just didn't believe it.

There has been South Ossetian irredentism since the fall of the Soviet
Union and even before. Georgia upset the status quo ante in South Ossetia
by moving troops into the region. It is understandable at one level.
Georgia is a sovereign country and South Ossetia is part of its territory.
But Georgia lost defacto control of South Ossetia years ago and after
Kosovo, Russia was looking for a low-risk way to avoid looking weak on
questions of border disputes.

The thunderous reaction of the right reminds me not of 1938, but rather
the 1950s in American foreign policy, when we preached liberation of East
European countries from countries and then did nothing when they tried,
particularly in Hungary. All the noisy rhetoric of McCain, Kristol,
and anyone else does not detract from the facts on the ground.

We should direct our efforts to returning the situation to what it was before Georgia and Russia in their own ways overreacted to the situation in South Ossetia. But you can be certain that Russia will take little advice from anyone on this issue because it is clear they will no longer bow to
Western wishes without a clear sense of what is in their interests.

Let us also take this opportunity to complement the Bush Administration
for its mature restraint on the entire issue, as well as that of candidate
Obama. It is said that politics makes strange bedfellows; it is certainly
true in this situation.

On the other hand, McCain's overreaction should give us pause about what kind of President he would be. With our troops already hopelessly overstretched, this kind of saber rattling is counterproductive and a rather dangerous omen about what kind of a foreign policy McCain would give us."

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"PERSPECTIVE...here's the latest (sent by the Campaign at 5:11 pm) Obama statement:

Good morning. The situation in Georgia continues to deteriorate because of the escalation of Russia's use of military force. I have spoken to President Saakashvili, and conveyed my deep regret over the loss of life, and the suffering of the people of Georgia.

For many months, I have warned that there needs to be active international engagement to peacefully address the disputes over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, including a high-level and neutral international mediator, and a genuine international peacekeeping force - not simply Russian troops.

No matter how this conflict started, Russia has escalated it well beyond the dispute over South Ossetia and invaded another country. Russia has escalated its military campaign through strategic bombing and the movement of its ground forces into the heart of Georgia. There is no possible justification for these attacks.

I reiterate my call for Russia to stop its bombing campaign, to stop flights of Russian aircraft in Georgian airspace, and to withdraw its ground forces from Georgia. The Georgian government has proposed a cease-fire and the Russian government should accept it. There is also an urgent need for humanitarian assistance to reach the people of Georgia, and casualties on both sides.

The United States, Europe and all other concerned countries must stand united in condemning this aggression, and seeking a peaceful resolution to this crisis. We should continue to push for a United Nations Security Council Resolution calling for an immediate end to the violence. This is a clear violation of the sovereignty and internationally recognized borders of Georgia - the UN must stand up for the sovereignty of its members, and peace in the world.

I welcome the visit of the French and Finnish foreign ministers to Georgia as a first step toward mediation. There should also be a United Nations mediator to address this crisis, and the United States should fully support this effort. We should also convene other international forums to condemn this aggression, to call for an immediate halt to the violence, and to review multilateral and bilateral arrangements with Russia - including Russia's interest in joining the World Trade Organization.

The violence taking place along the Black Sea is just miles from Sochi, the site for the Winter Olympics in 2014. It only adds to the tragedy and outrage of the current situation that Russia has acted while the world has come together in peace and athletic competition in Beijing. This action is wholly inconsistent with the Olympic ideal.

While returning to a pre-August 8 military posture is a necessary first step to resolving this crisis, we cannot tolerate the unacceptable status quo that led to this escalation. That means Russian peacekeeping troops should be replaced by a genuine international peacekeeping force, Georgia should refrain from using force in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and a political settlement must be reached that addresses the status of these disputed regions.

Going forward, the United States and Europe must support the people of Georgia. Beyond immediate humanitarian assistance, we must provide economic assistance, and help rebuild what has been destroyed. I have consistently called for deepening relations between Georgia and transatlantic institutions, including a Membership Action Plan for NATO, and we must continue to press for that deeper relationship.

The relationship between Russia and the West is long and complicated. There have been many turning points, for good and ill. This is another turning point.

Let me be clear: we seek a future of cooperative engagement with the Russian government, and friendship with the Russian people. We want Russia to play its rightful role as a great nation - but with that role comes the responsibility to act as a force for progress in this new century, not regression to the conflicts of the past. That is why the United States and the international community must speak out strongly against this aggression, and for peace and security.

MCCAIN STATEMENT (sent 10:16 am:

"Americans wishing to spend August vacationing with their families or watching the Olympics may wonder why their newspapers and television screens are filled with images of war in the small country of Georgia. Concerns about what occurs there might seem distant and unrelated to the many other interests America has around the world. And yet Russian aggression against Georgia is both a matter of urgent moral and strategic importance to the United States of America.

"Georgia is an ancient country, at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and one of the world's first nations to adopt Christianity as an official religion. After a brief period of independence following the Russian revolution, the Red Army forced Georgia to join the Soviet Union in 1922. As the Soviet Union crumbled at the end of the Cold War, Georgia regained its independence in 1991, but its early years were marked by instability, corruption, and economic crises.

"Following fraudulent parliamentary elections in 2003, a peaceful, democratic revolution took place, led by the U.S.-educated lawyer Mikheil Saakashvili. The Rose Revolution changed things dramatically and, following his election, President Saakashvili embarked on a series of wide-ranging and successful reforms. I've met with President Saakashvili many times, including during several trips to Georgia.

"What the people of Georgia have accomplished in terms of democratic governance, a Western orientation, and domestic reform is nothing short of remarkable. That makes Russia's recent actions against the Georgians all the more alarming. In the face of Russian aggression, the very existence of independent Georgia and the survival of its democratically-elected government are at stake.

"In recent days Moscow has sent its tanks and troops across the internationally recognized border into the Georgian region of South Ossetia. Statements by Moscow that it was merely aiding the Ossetians are belied by reports of Russian troops in the region of Abkhazia, repeated Russian bombing raids across Georgia, and reports of a de facto Russian naval blockade of the Georgian coast. Whatever tensions and hostilities might have existed between Georgians and Ossetians, they in no way justify Moscow's path of violent aggression. Russian actions, in clear violation of international law, have no place in 21st century Europe.

"The implications of Russian actions go beyond their threat to the territorial integrity and independence of a democratic Georgia. Russia is using violence against Georgia, in part, to intimidate other neighbors such as Ukraine for choosing to associate with the West and adhering to Western political and economic values. As such, the fate of Georgia should be of grave concern to Americans and all people who welcomed the end of a divided of Europe, and the independence of former Soviet republics. The international response to this crisis will determine how Russia manages its relationships with other neighbors. We have other important strategic interests at stake in Georgia, especially the continued flow of oil through the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which Russia attempted to bomb in recent days; the operation of a critical communication and trade route from Georgia through Azerbaijan and Central Asia; and the integrity an d influence of NATO, whose members reaffirmed last April the territorial integrity, independence, and sovereignty of Georgia.

"Yesterday Georgia withdrew its troops from South Ossetia and offered a ceasefire. The Russians responded by bombing the civilian airport in Georgia's capital, Tblisi, and by stepping up its offensive in Abkhazia. This pattern of attack appears aimed not at restoring any status quo ante in South Ossetia, but rather at toppling the democratically elected government of Georgia. This should be unacceptable to all the democratic countries of the world, and should draw us together in universal condemnation of Russian aggression.

"Russian President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin must understand the severe, long-term negative consequences that their government's actions will have for Russia's relationship with the U.S. and Europe. It is time we moved forward with a number of steps.

"The United States and our allies should continue efforts to bring a resolution before the UN Security Council condemning Russian aggression, noting the withdrawal of Georgian troops from South Ossetia, and calling for an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgian territory. We should move ahead with the resolution despite Russian veto threats, and submit Russia to the court of world public opinion.

"NATO's North Atlantic Council should convene in emergency session to demand a ceasefire and begin discussions on both the deployment of an international peacekeeping force to South Ossetia and the implications for NATO's future relationship with Russia, a Partnership for Peace nation. NATO's decision to withhold a Membership Action Plan for Georgia might have been viewed as a green light by Russia for its attacks on Georgia, and I urge the NATO allies to revisit the decision.

"The Secretary of State should begin high-level diplomacy, including visiting Europe, to establish a common Euro-Atlantic position aimed at ending the war and supporting the independence of Georgia. With the same aim, the U.S. should coordinate with our partners in Germany, France, and Britain, to seek an emergency meeting of the G-7 foreign ministers to discuss the current crisis. The visit of French President Sarkozy to Moscow this week is a welcome expression of transatlantic activism.

"Working with allied partners, the U.S. should immediately consult with the Ukrainian government and other concerned countries on steps to secure their continued independence. This is particularly important as a number of Russian Black Sea fleet vessels currently in Georgian territorial waters are stationed at Russia's base in the Ukrainian Crimea.

"The U.S. should work with Azerbaijan and Turkey, and other interested friends, to develop plans to strengthen the security of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline.

"The U.S. should send immediate economic and humanitarian assistance to help mitigate the impact the invasion has had on the people of Georgia.

"Our united purpose should be to persuade the Russian government to cease its attacks, withdraw its troops, and enter into negotiations with Georgia. We must remind Russia's leaders that the benefits they enjoy from being part of the civilized world require their respect for the values, stability and peace of that world. World history is often made in remote, obscure countries. It is being made in Georgia today. It is the responsibility of the leading nations of the world to ensure that history continues to be a record of humanity's progress toward respecting the values and security of free people.